November 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

LOL@ the 6Z GFS in the fantasy range. 1057 MB high entering S Canada in late November. Sure GFS. Yeah. Ok. That's impressive for the dead of winter let alone Fall.

Yea , that’s the same thing models were showing with next week’s cold high pressure at the same range. Remember the map I posted with a mid 1050s high and a hurricane affecting the lower 48? Gone-dee. A mid 1040s high is now looking more likely

A Mid 1040s in November is still pretty impressive to me. It'll be interesting to see if we can still see these cold highs in December and January. Could make for some interesting weather patterns ahead.

[tron777]

Good Morning and we are just about half way through the month and without another drop of rain we will be at least average which is something new. Before I start looking at items this morning one caught my eye and somehow I missed this from last October. A underwater volcano off the Japan coast last year was strong enough that a new island formed off the coast. I still believe the warmth off the coast of Japan and eastern Asia has been warmer than normal for a few reasons and one being the underwater Volcano's that go off and that is a ton or warmth heading towards the surface and also several years in a row with the tropical season in that part of the world being well below normal. Lucky this year those numbers have moved towards normal and maybe just maybe we are starting to see those waters cool down to at least somewhat reasonable temps because they have been so far above normal the last several years. Are there other items that cause the warmth and my guess yes but not sure what those would be. One thing to see sea temps average above normal for a period of time but the above normal off the coast of Japan was so out of whack there had to be reasons besides normal back and forth.

The marine heat wave has definitely led to the record setting -PDO we have been seeing, The -PDO is trying to not be so negative and if we can see that trend continue, the pattern for winter weather lovers should improve. Of course it remains to be seen this early.

[Bgoney]

At this point, I’d take a mid 1030s high dropping down from west Canada. Currently at # 1 record warmest combining September/October/and so far in November at CVG and I’m sure regionally as well would be similar.

IMG_2619.jpeg

[tron777]

Good news on the drought... the latest update from yesterday takes portions of NKY and SOH out of the drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... px?Midwest

[tron777]

1.37" looks to be the final event total from our last system at CVG. Fantastic! Looking forwards to next weeks precip chances.

[Mjr]

Good news on the drought... the latest update from yesterday takes portions of NKY and SOH out of the drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... px?Midwest

Good morning 1.9 inches of rain here.
Needed the muck boots the last couple days when feeding the livestock.
I’m with you on the drought subsiding (although less scientific).
Our pond water is close to being just at the correct level.
As for Christmas decorations outside? Well I start putting them up right
At dusk. Seeing the lights on while decorating the pines, and bushes helps with spacing.
Lastly, the colder the better. It’s Christmas time it’s suppose to be cold

[tron777]

Good news on the drought... the latest update from yesterday takes portions of NKY and SOH out of the drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... px?Midwest

Good morning 1.9 inches of rain here.
Needed the muck boots the last couple days when feeding the livestock.
I’m with you on the drought subsiding (although less scientific).
Our pond water is close to being just at the correct level.
As for Christmas decorations outside? Well I start putting them up right
At dusk. Seeing the lights on while decorating the pines, and bushes helps with spacing.
Lastly, the colder the better. It’s Christmas time it’s suppose to be cold

I completely agree with you! There is nothing worse then 60s - 70 degrees around Christmas time. It doesn't have to snow since our climo is so low on getting a White Christmas anyway but temps in the 30s and 40s is normal which is what one should expect. We'll see what happens this year when we get closer. It'll feel like Christmas later this month anyway.

[tpweather]

Good news on the drought... the latest update from yesterday takes portions of NKY and SOH out of the drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... px?Midwest

Good morning 1.9 inches of rain here.
Needed the muck boots the last couple days when feeding the livestock.
I’m with you on the drought subsiding (although less scientific).
Our pond water is close to being just at the correct level.
As for Christmas decorations outside? Well I start putting them up right
At dusk. Seeing the lights on while decorating the pines, and bushes helps with spacing.
Lastly, the colder the better. It’s Christmas time it’s suppose to be cold

I completely agree with you! There is nothing worse then 60s - 70 degrees around Christmas time. It doesn't have to snow since our climo is so low on getting a White Christmas anyway but temps in the 30s and 40s is normal which is what one should expect. We'll see what happens this year when we get closer. It'll feel like Christmas later this month anyway.

I love cold around the holidays and if we get snow even better. Should be a good weekend to put up outside lights and other items. I have been very good this year so hoping Santa brings me a nice gift and getting a cold and snowy winter would be just fine

[tron777]

Good news on the drought... the latest update from yesterday takes portions of NKY and SOH out of the drought.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... px?Midwest

Good morning 1.9 inches of rain here.
Needed the muck boots the last couple days when feeding the livestock.
I’m with you on the drought subsiding (although less scientific).
Our pond water is close to being just at the correct level.
As for Christmas decorations outside? Well I start putting them up right
At dusk. Seeing the lights on while decorating the pines, and bushes helps with spacing.
Lastly, the colder the better. It’s Christmas time it’s suppose to be cold

I completely agree with you! There is nothing worse then 60s - 70 degrees around Christmas time. It doesn't have to snow since our climo is so low on getting a White Christmas anyway but temps in the 30s and 40s is normal which is what one should expect. We'll see what happens this year when we get closer. It'll feel like Christmas later this month anyway.

I love cold around the holidays and if we get snow even better. Should be a good weekend to put up outside lights and other items. I have been very good this year so hoping Santa brings me a nice gift and getting a cold and snowy winter would be just fine

Put me down for the same thing. Do you hear us, Mr. Nicholas?

[tron777]

A lot of people would look out the window today and think that it's a bad day. Not me. Love this kind of weather and the below visible satellite pic too!

1kmv.gif

[Bgoney]

Some interesting eye candy locally from the 12z suite. Only thing I can say with relative confidence is , book an early ski vacation to the mountains of West Virginia for next weekend and the following week

[tpweather]

A lot of people would look out the window today and think that it's a bad day. Not me. Love this kind of weather and the below visible satellite pic too!


1kmv.gif

Les 10000000 p/c agree

[tron777]

Some interesting eye candy locally from the 12z suite. Only thing I can say with relative confidence is , book an early ski vacation to the mountains of West Virginia for next weekend and the following week

It seems like the GFS gave up on the cold pattern early but IMO it is an outlier right now. CMC was more seasonal and the Euro is very cold!

[tron777]

A lot of people would look out the window today and think that it's a bad day. Not me. Love this kind of weather and the below visible satellite pic too!


1kmv.gif

Les 10000000 p/c agree

Tim it makes driving this time of year so much easier when the sun isn't staring you in the face!

[tpweather]

Some interesting eye candy locally from the 12z suite. Only thing I can say with relative confidence is , book an early ski vacation to the mountains of West Virginia for next weekend and the following week

It seems like the GFS gave up on the cold pattern early but IMO it is an outlier right now. CMC was more seasonal and the Euro is very cold!

Les I believe the latest mjo had it going into phase 2 next week which is fine but it also has the mjo going into 3 and 4 which no doubt would end the colder period sooner

[tron777]

Some interesting eye candy locally from the 12z suite. Only thing I can say with relative confidence is , book an early ski vacation to the mountains of West Virginia for next weekend and the following week

It seems like the GFS gave up on the cold pattern early but IMO it is an outlier right now. CMC was more seasonal and the Euro is very cold!

Les I believe the latest mjo had it going into phase 2 next week which is fine but it also has the mjo going into 3 and 4 which no doubt would end the colder period sooner

That is right Tim. It depends on how quick it gets there into the warmer phases and strength of the wave. Models are not in agreement at this time. I think that is why we are seeing the uncertainty in the models long term.

[tron777]

Another thing too.... the 12Z GEFS at 500 MB keeps the Ridge West / trough east pattern going where the OP GFS breaks it down and puts a ridge over us and a trough into the West Coast. I think the OP GFS is an outlier at this point. Euro looks more like the GEFS too.

[tron777]

12Z Euro AI was even colder then the OP Euro lol We'll see! Some interesting times ahead esp towards the end of next week. If we can get that secondary deepening low, wherever the deform band sets up., and if it is at night could receive some small accum. If it's during the day, not so sure on accum. The precip rate would be heavy to allow for a period of snow with a low in the 980s MB. 970s on some runs lol

[tron777]

All me and CVG could do today was 51 degrees, A classic November day today! Love those gray skies!

[tron777]

18Z GFS nails AV Land with the deformation zone Wed night into Thurs morning, next week. 974 MB low lol Wow! Save this one for the wallpaper.

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23.png

[Bgoney]

18Z GFS nails AV Land with the deformation zone Wed night into Thurs morning, next week. 974 MB low lol Wow! Save this one for the wallpaper.


gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23.png

18z went all in on that run with wind gusts for the I70 crew of 40-50mph

[tpweather]

18Z GFS nails AV Land with the deformation zone Wed night into Thurs morning, next week. 974 MB low lol Wow! Save this one for the wallpaper.


gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23.png

Funny when you see a set up like this in later November normally you think of the Great Lakes area which are known to have these kind of very windy and yes sometimes winter like conditions. Again several days away and yes the ground will still be warm but to get some wind blown snow or snow showers is something we don't always see in November. I will be coming back from mid 70's to 30's but not complaining at all. Looks like we turn milder early the following week but the pattern imo is moving so we may see another shot of cold air during the Thanksgiving Holiday Weekend. Then after Thanksgiving we can really get down to business hopefully.

[Bgoney]

18Z GFS nails AV Land with the deformation zone Wed night into Thurs morning, next week. 974 MB low lol Wow! Save this one for the wallpaper.


gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_eus_23.png

18z went all in on that run with wind gusts for the I70 crew of 40-50mph

Overnight models solidify a dynamic system in the works for the OV next week. High winds ,mountain snows , first flakes locally are highly likely, for know!!! -NAO working its magic and phasing systems , leaving the window open much longer for the upper low dropping in from North Dakota and southern plains vort to merge somewhere in the OV/Great Lakes

floop-gfs-2024111606.500hv.conus.gif

[tpweather]

Always loved the NAO. Upper lows can be very dynamic and this looks to be the case. Again being under the low is where the coldest of air will be that can support snow. Will that be locally and as of now close by. The winds may be the bigger story mid-week and beyond. Looks like the pattern is progressive in the longer term so then we see a milder period before Thanksgiving and then do we repeat a colder period for Thanksgiving weekend.

Is this a pattern we see all winter and again to early to say a definite yes but how about a maybe. During the past several years very few chances for snow before Thanksgiving so nice to see even if its just a few wind blown snow showers.

We have reached mid-point of November and rainfall is about double the normal amount and temps exactly 8 degrees above normal. Love seeing a busy November and making up for lost time as summer and early fall boring as heck.

[tron777]

Good morning all! We have a chance of precip like everyday next week lol Rain Mon night thru Wed then snow showers Wed night thru Friday. Could mix with some rain showers at times also. First flakes of the season is looking very good! Accumulations... way too early to talk about that. Track, phasing, and temps will all play a role including precip intensity. Buckle up! We're just getting started around here.

GFS continues to go all in with this system. Euro isn't quite as strong but we'd still get first flakes even with it. Better chances of accum with the GFS's solution. This weekend on into Monday will be the calm before the storm if you will.