November 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a beautiful day in store. A nice rain even overnight into Sunday which is really the perfect kind of rain we need. Another system later in the week and more on that in the next few days. We stay busy over the next few weeks as colder air will slowly advance in the lower 48.

[tron777]

Good Morning and a beautiful day in store. A nice rain even overnight into Sunday which is really the perfect kind of rain we need. Another system later in the week and more on that in the next few days. We stay busy over the next few weeks as colder air will slowly advance in the lower 48.

Snow cover is really building in the Rockies now! It is largely void over S Canada but I think it'll even start to build there in the next couple of weeks.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a beautiful day in store. A nice rain even overnight into Sunday which is really the perfect kind of rain we need. Another system later in the week and more on that in the next few days. We stay busy over the next few weeks as colder air will slowly advance in the lower 48.

Snow cover is really building in the Rockies now! It is largely void over S Canada but I think it'll even start to build there in the next couple of weeks.

Good Morning Les and you made me hungry with your menu today lol. Exactly and southwest Canada is okay and even southeast Canada should start to build up but still worried about the interior and this includes the northern plains of the USA. Just a late start for some and hopefully with the cold getting further south and colder over the next few weeks we can keep systems coming across the USA and this hopefully will build up in those areas as well. Again only November 9th but by say December 9th and the same areas are still bare then I start to get a little concerned. Good news is some of the cold building up on this side of the globe and matter of fact the coldest is in extreme northern Canada where I saw a temp of -36 while the coldest in Siberia is -32. . So with both sides getting similar air this usually tells me we have an AO that is probably close to neutral. Getting that cold down here is another story and so far we have just seen spokes of the PV here and there and one area this season seems to be the northeast USA. If that continues it may not be the perfect fit for us but it would put us on that western edge of some decent cold air this winter which is a big part of my forecast. If that does not happen may need to adjust the winter forecast but at this point everything is fine.

[tron777]

Good Morning and a beautiful day in store. A nice rain even overnight into Sunday which is really the perfect kind of rain we need. Another system later in the week and more on that in the next few days. We stay busy over the next few weeks as colder air will slowly advance in the lower 48.

Snow cover is really building in the Rockies now! It is largely void over S Canada but I think it'll even start to build there in the next couple of weeks.

Good Morning Les and you made me hungry with your menu today lol. Exactly and southwest Canada is okay and even southeast Canada should start to build up but still worried about the interior and this includes the northern plains of the USA. Just a late start for some and hopefully with the cold getting further south and colder over the next few weeks we can keep systems coming across the USA and this hopefully will build up in those areas as well. Again only November 9th but by say December 9th and the same areas are still bare then I start to get a little concerned. Good news is some of the cold building up on this side of the globe and matter of fact the coldest is in extreme northern Canada where I saw a temp of -36 while the coldest in Siberia is -32. . So with both sides getting similar air this usually tells me we have an AO that is probably close to neutral. Getting that cold down here is another story and so far we have just seen spokes of the PV here and there and one area this season seems to be the northeast USA. If that continues it may not be the perfect fit for us but it would put us on that western edge of some decent cold air this winter which is a big part of my forecast. If that does not happen may need to adjust the winter forecast but at this point everything is fine.

Good morning Tim! Yeah... that sausage and vegetable packet on the grill last night for dinner was awesome! The persistent and hostile Pacific just really has me spooked for the upcoming winter and really that is a huge reason why my posting has been very negative for the upcoming winter. Doug's right. He brought this up the other day too about the tone of my posts. I don't recall ever going into winter and not being excited about having a halfway decent season. Winter is bound to change at this point but I just don't think it'll be this winter unless we see some changes in the Pacific pattern.

[tpweather]

I agree Les this is probably the least excited you have been about an upcoming winter season. Low expectations can lead to happiness lol. No doubt I am concerned about the pacific but with a weak La Nina this gives me a little more hope and I keep looking towards the NAO which can help in an otherwise hostile environment to give us some colder shots of air.

[tron777]

I agree Les this is probably the least excited you have been about an upcoming winter season. Low expectations can lead to happiness lol. No doubt I am concerned about the pacific but with a weak La Nina this gives me a little more hope and I keep looking towards the NAO which can help in an otherwise hostile environment to give us some colder shots of air.

It's just that we have been burnt by a bad Pacific so many times now and as long as that look continues with a strong jet stream then we will see the trough west, east ridge alignment. Again, I do see a change coming around the 20th, I buy a colder change there but as I said earlier, it'll be temporary unless the MJO does something other then what the long range modeling shows.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys for our next system:

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY/...
The area of surface high pressure will have progressed
southeast, settling over the Atlantic coastline, while the 500H
occluding low barrels into the Ohio Valley. Despite the low
occluding and opening up into the larger flow, its surface
features will still lift through the ILN CWA in the form of a
warm front, brief warm sector, then cold front from Saturday
night through Sunday night.

Precipitation arrives as early as Saturday evening. Some very
weak instability might allow for a rumble of thunder,
particularly south of the Ohio River, but otherwise should just
be rain showers. Overnight low temperatures into Sunday morning
fall to the mid 50s in the southwest where the warm sector will
be in place longer and upper 40s near central Ohio.

Despite the low occluding and opening up, this will still
create a tight pressure gradient between the low to the
northwest and the high to the southeast. This acts to introduce
a strong LLJ into the Ohio Valley region during the overnight
hours into Sunday. As this wind is mixed down with precip,
surface winds will increase Sunday to 15-20 MPH with gusts to 30
MPH.

By Sunday morning, much of the area should be seeing some much
needed rain; total QPF will fall between 0.7-1.0" with isolated
higher amounts. Despite this rainfall, much of the region will
still be in a deficit of several inches. Widespread rain moves
out Sunday late morning, leaving scattered showers moving
through during Sunday afternoon ahead of the cold front. High
temperatures on Sunday reach the mid 60s, but with rain and
wind, it won`t be a very pleasant day to be outside.

[tpweather]

Les they looked at your forecast. Yes I like the write up and looks perfect and that scares me since many times I will disagree to a certain point especially when it come to precip totals and of course temps in mid-winter on a cloudy day where they are always way to high and adjust at the last moment.

[tron777]

Les they looked at your forecast. Yes I like the write up and looks perfect and that scares me since many times I will disagree to a certain point especially when it come to precip totals and of course temps in mid-winter on a cloudy day where they are always way to high and adjust at the last moment.

This system finally has some good moisture and lift from the Gulf. First time that the Gulf has been open for business in a long time. Too bad Rafael couldn't have gotten involved for additional moisture injection. No doubt this rain will help a great deal!

[tpweather]

Les they looked at your forecast. Yes I like the write up and looks perfect and that scares me since many times I will disagree to a certain point especially when it come to precip totals and of course temps in mid-winter on a cloudy day where they are always way to high and adjust at the last moment.

This system finally has some good moisture and lift from the Gulf. First time that the Gulf has been open for business in a long time. Too bad Rafael couldn't have gotten involved for additional moisture injection. No doubt this rain will help a great deal!

I agree and having the LLJ getting strong at night is always a big plus. I like the systems that are giving us decent totals and they happen every 3-4 days. That is a slow but good way to get out of a short term drought. Locally I believe by late spring of next year we will be just fine but again some folks in the USA may not be as lucky and stay in the drought a tad longer.

[tron777]

Les they looked at your forecast. Yes I like the write up and looks perfect and that scares me since many times I will disagree to a certain point especially when it come to precip totals and of course temps in mid-winter on a cloudy day where they are always way to high and adjust at the last moment.

This system finally has some good moisture and lift from the Gulf. First time that the Gulf has been open for business in a long time. Too bad Rafael couldn't have gotten involved for additional moisture injection. No doubt this rain will help a great deal!

I agree and having the LLJ getting strong at night is always a big plus. I like the systems that are giving us decent totals and they happen every 3-4 days. That is a slow but good way to get out of a short term drought. Locally I believe by late spring of next year we will be just fine but again some folks in the USA may not be as lucky and stay in the drought a tad longer.

I can't believe how much of the country has been dry. The -PDO has kept the jet stream much further north then usual for most of the country to be in some form of drought.


https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/

[tron777]

I have been watching videos on YouTube from a former TV Met (Travis Roberts) who quit the broadcast business years ago and has a YouTube channel. He puts out 10-15 min videos everyday. Really explains things well.

[tpweather]

Les not a big fan of the drought monitor and yes some information is correct but some not so much. I was up in Wisconsin where my son lives and all the lakes and rivers I saw were full and the yards green plus saw some of the corn stalks up close and very tall. They are about 7 inches above normal for the year and doing well this fall and yes they had a short term drought the second half of last year but recovered in the spring and then another short term drought mid summer but has recovered quite nicely. I have no ideal what criteria they look at and I am always a person who sees better than hears information. So at the end of the day I take it with a grain of salt and for the most part with the USA we of course have short term droughts but not many folks have longer term drought which imo must be at 2 years in a row with below normal rainfall but also when they occur can revise my thinking if it happens especially in the spring and early summer when we need the water for crops.

[Bgoney]

Not quite sure why it matters what a drought is designated if the effects are substantial on agriculture, economy, arbor culture, shipping industry just to name a few “minor “ things

[tpweather]

Not quite sure why it matters what a drought is designated if the effects are substantial on agriculture, economy, arbor culture, shipping industry just to name a few “minor “ things

100p/c agree and that is my point

[tron777]

Les not a big fan of the drought monitor and yes some information is correct but some not so much. I was up in Wisconsin where my son lives and all the lakes and rivers I saw were full and the yards green plus saw some of the corn stalks up close and very tall. They are about 7 inches above normal for the year and doing well this fall and yes they had a short term drought the second half of last year but recovered in the spring and then another short term drought mid summer but has recovered quite nicely. I have no ideal what criteria they look at and I am always a person who sees better than hears information. So at the end of the day I take it with a grain of salt and for the most part with the USA we of course have short term droughts but not many folks have longer term drought which imo must be at 2 years in a row with below normal rainfall but also when they occur can revise my thinking if it happens especially in the spring and early summer when we need the water for crops.

What the drought monitor doesn't show well IMO are local, regional impacts. Precip rarely falls in a universal fashion so some local areas will be better or worse then what the map actually shows. But I do think that the information is valuable. I also like the CPC soil moisture maps too. Between the two you can get a good sense as to the overall dryness or wetness of a given area. Our droughts typically are short term here but this has been the third year in a row with a period of very below normal precip. It does have long term effects on water levels, when the crops are in season, as well as trees, plants. There's more to it then our own local backyards as we all know and this is a good way at showing it even if local impacts vary,

[Bgoney]

Not quite sure why it matters what a drought is designated if the effects are substantial on agriculture, economy, arbor culture, shipping industry just to name a few “minor “ things

100p/c agree and that is my point

My point is giving a definition to a drought is dubious at best. Droughts are not created equally. Saying a drought isn’t a drought unless it’s 2 years doesn’t make sense when obviously all you need for the substantial effects in certain parts of the country that I’ve mentioned only takes 2-4 months of a dry spell . Yearly averages are a poor way to judge significance.

[tpweather]

Not quite sure why it matters what a drought is designated if the effects are substantial on agriculture, economy, arbor culture, shipping industry just to name a few “minor “ things

100p/c agree and that is my point

My point is giving a definition to a drought is dubious at best. Droughts are not created equally. Saying a drought isn’t a drought unless it’s 2 years doesn’t make sense when obviously all you need for the substantial effects in certain parts of the country that I’ve mentioned only takes 2-4 months of a dry spell . Yearly averages are a poor way to judge significance.

You may be correct but I was talking long term drought for 2 years and not short term as we always have those happen. Again my son has talked to the farmers in his area and yes last year was a short term drought but this year even with the middle of summer dry the farmers have said its been a great year for crops even with the so called drought conditions thrown out there. Not all crops do well with tons of rain as well but the majority that we need to feed the country yes rainfall is very helpful. You could see the difference with the crops here locally compared to central and northern Illinois and much of Wisconsin because they had some decent rains in the spring early summer and the Illinois became drier in the summer the crops got off to a great start and that helps as well. I believe droughts can be different especially in the summer when some areas will get hit with several rounds of storms while other areas miss out completely. So at the end of the day I pay little attention to the drought monitor and I have not talked to any farmers locally but would love to hear what they have to say because if you know a long term farmer they know the weather better than anyone.

[Bgoney]

Not quite sure why it matters what a drought is designated if the effects are substantial on agriculture, economy, arbor culture, shipping industry just to name a few “minor “ things

100p/c agree and that is my point

My point is giving a definition to a drought is dubious at best. Droughts are not created equally. Saying a drought isn’t a drought unless it’s 2 years doesn’t make sense when obviously all you need for the substantial effects in certain parts of the country that I’ve mentioned only takes 2-4 months of a dry spell . Yearly averages are a poor way to judge significance.

You may be correct but I was talking long term drought for 2 years and not short term as we always have those happen. Again my son has talked to the farmers in his area and yes last year was a short term drought but this year even with the middle of summer dry the farmers have said its been a great year for crops even with the so called drought conditions thrown out there. Not all crops do well with tons of rain as well but the majority that we need to feed the country yes rainfall is very helpful. You could see the difference with the crops here locally compared to central and northern Illinois and much of Wisconsin because they had some decent rains in the spring early summer and the Illinois became drier in the summer the crops got off to a great start and that helps as well. I believe droughts can be different especially in the summer when some areas will get hit with several rounds of storms while other areas miss out completely. So at the end of the day I pay little attention to the drought monitor and I have not talked to any farmers locally but would love to hear what they have to say because if you know a long term farmer they know the weather better than anyone.

Yes, Of course I have and a few arborists who haven’t seen anything like this summer/fall and now 3 years in a row. Every year Advancements in Seed genetics are incredible and are light years from what they were just 5-10 years ago let alone back in the day. Farmers have mentioned this is the only reason they have had any kind of crops during these severe droughts , especially the old timers.. I do all I can to educate my customers, but some I can’t change their perception of things until they experience the effects, and by then it’s to late

[tron777]

After the overnight / tomorrow soaker, 12Z GFS is not impressive with the front next week. Still has the cold shot after the 20th but not a bunch of rain. The pattern looks to be cool and dry IMO. Lake Effect areas should get their first bout of snow inland away from the lake shore.

[Bgoney]

After the overnight / tomorrow soaker, 12Z GFS is not impressive with the front next week. Still has the cold shot after the 20th but not a bunch of rain. The pattern looks to be cool and dry IMO. Lake Effect areas should get their first bout of snow inland away from the lake shore.

I’m hoping we can get a low pressure to travel closer to the OV days prior to that cool shot, maybe getting some thundershowers and some heavier rain with it. Models are back and forth with that happening this far out

[tpweather]

Not quite sure why it matters what a drought is designated if the effects are substantial on agriculture, economy, arbor culture, shipping industry just to name a few “minor “ things

100p/c agree and that is my point

My point is giving a definition to a drought is dubious at best. Droughts are not created equally. Saying a drought isn’t a drought unless it’s 2 years doesn’t make sense when obviously all you need for the substantial effects in certain parts of the country that I’ve mentioned only takes 2-4 months of a dry spell . Yearly averages are a poor way to judge significance.

You may be correct but I was talking long term drought for 2 years and not short term as we always have those happen. Again my son has talked to the farmers in his area and yes last year was a short term drought but this year even with the middle of summer dry the farmers have said its been a great year for crops even with the so called drought conditions thrown out there. Not all crops do well with tons of rain as well but the majority that we need to feed the country yes rainfall is very helpful. You could see the difference with the crops here locally compared to central and northern Illinois and much of Wisconsin because they had some decent rains in the spring early summer and the Illinois became drier in the summer the crops got off to a great start and that helps as well. I believe droughts can be different especially in the summer when some areas will get hit with several rounds of storms while other areas miss out completely. So at the end of the day I pay little attention to the drought monitor and I have not talked to any farmers locally but would love to hear what they have to say because if you know a long term farmer they know the weather better than anyone.

Yes, Of course I have and a few arborists who haven’t seen anything like this summer/fall and now 3 years in a row. Every year Advancements in Seed genetics are incredible and are light years from what they were just 5-10 years ago let alone back in the day. Farmers have mentioned this is the only reason they have had any kind of crops during these severe droughts , especially the old timers.. I do all I can to educate my customers, but some I can’t change their perception of things until they experience the effects, and by then it’s to late

Hey Bgoney, you are the person concerning this topic and always pay attention to what you bring to this forum on this topic. My only problem is with the drought monitor and believe it could be better

[tpweather]

Nothing new to report as the rain should overspread the area from south to north overnight and Sunday. My guess once we get to mid-day Sunday rain becomes more scattered. Les has 0.75-1.0 as the early call and it looks correct. Monday and Tuesday should be normal early-mid November days but dry. Some rain may fall later Wednesday and early Thursday but at this point the main rainfall should be towards the Great Lakes. Then the following week looks to get rather busy again with more chances of rainfall and then towards the last 10 days of the month we may have a chance to get below normal for temps. Again still a long ways from that but I would love to see the change. November as a whole is going to be way above normal on temps and hopefully at least near normal on rainfall and maybe above normal for a change.

[tron777]

Thanks Tim! We've got the near term / medium term looking good. It is the longer term where there is still some uncertainty. I don't see any cooler weather until after the 20th.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 62, DAY 59 and CMH 60 today.