Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good morning all! 55 here and 58 at CVG so a very warm to start to the day. Can we hit 80 or will we fall short again at CVG / MBY? We shall soon see. No changes guys to the ongoing forecast. The only uncertainty is Halloween and beyond as far as rain chances go.

Good Morning Les and forecast looks good. Probably a degree or two lower for the high today. The tropics as we have mentioned are still part of the problems with the models and why they are having a hard time in early November. Once they are finished for the season then the fun begins for more active weather across the USA.

[Bgoney]

Results from that Alaska rain/snow storm for Fairbanks from NOAA

The airport's two-day liquid-equivalent precipitation total of 2.28" is within the top 10 for any time of year (1930-present), most of the heaviest precipitation events occur in the warm season in Fairbanks. Only two cold season events have seen higher two-day totals: the Christmas storm of 2021 (2.45", ) and January 19-20, 1937 ( a three-day event totaling 3.21").
yesterday's calendar day precipitation total of 1.99" is the third largest of any day since 1930 in Fairbanks, the only wetter days being July 27, 2003, and August 12, 1967 (the great Fairbanks flood). 24-hour total (Sunday evening through Monday evening) of 2.07" is the highest on record for the cold season, and the first to exceed 2". The previous cold season record for 24 hours was 1.93" in the 2021 storm, and before that 1.84" in 1937.

Higher amounts were reported elsewhere: a CoCoRaHS site near the airport measured 2.96" in the two days, and the Keystone Ridge site came in at 3.27".

At least half of the precipitation fell as plain rain, according to the airport ASOS data

[tpweather]

Nice post Bgoney and yes quite the storm but it did bring up some warmer air for the event in many areas. Colder air will flow in and of course temps below zero in the Fairbanks area by this weekend. One thing over the past several years that I have noticed is northern regions of the planet are receiving more precip. Warmer oceans and more water vapor and bingo more rain and snow.

[Bgoney]

Probably some record high lows to our north this morning

IMG_2477.jpeg

[tron777]

Good morning all! 55 here and 58 at CVG so a very warm to start to the day. Can we hit 80 or will we fall short again at CVG / MBY? We shall soon see. No changes guys to the ongoing forecast. The only uncertainty is Halloween and beyond as far as rain chances go.

Good Morning Les and forecast looks good. Probably a degree or two lower for the high today. The tropics as we have mentioned are still part of the problems with the models and why they are having a hard time in early November. Once they are finished for the season then the fun begins for more active weather across the USA.

I agree Tim. I am watching the Caribbean for possible early November development as I have been posting about several times. This is part of the reason why we continue to see ridging and warmth. The other factor of course is the -PDO. You can see in the model fantasy range how the storm track is starting to get more active now and you can clearly see the cold and snow building over the Rockies as we've talked about previously. I think my long term thoughts look decent. (Unfortunately lol)

[Bgoney]

A loop of yesterdays record/near record highs reaching into Canada

IMG_2478.gif

[tron777]

Probably some record high lows to our north this morning



IMG_2477.jpeg

No doubt! Right ahead of the next cold front too, Perfect timing for that to occur.

[tpweather]

Yes and the good thing is the highs have been above normal but the lows not so much over the past several weeks. What does this say and yes dry air and dry ground. Even after today we are only going to be 2 degrees above average for the month. Normally around here you don't this kind of set up that last several weeks but this time is has and will continue until November. The models yes will finally come around once the tropics are gone or just so weak and this should help us figure out the timing of systems coming across the USA. Still believe early November and not pushing that back yet because I see signs of a pattern that gets busy but also progressive in nature.

[tron777]

From what I am seeing with regards to early Nov, if the tropical development in the Caribbean works out, then any incoming front is going to have a hard time reaching us, or moving all the way thru the OV. You can see that on the last couple of GFS runs. So the current pattern potentially could last longer then some folks are expecting. It is something to watch for sure.

[tron777]

[Bgoney]

Looks like Cvg got 79’d again.

[tron777]

77 here today IMBY.

[cincy bud]

Well just looking at the sky, I would say that the cold front is approaching

[tron777]

Well just looking at the sky, I would say that the cold front is approaching

Overcast here too. Radar is pitiful and it's probably virga anyway lol

[tpweather]

Good Evening and leaving around 430am to get through Indy which is still a nightmare. Hopefully when I get back the weather becomes more active as we head into November. Rain chances until the middle of next week are slim at best and then we wait and see if the pattern starts changing.. Just hope Halloween is nice and not a fan when it rains even though I will just be handing out candy. Les I will have my snowfall prediction by early next week. Take Care and will probably not be back on here until next Monday.

[MVWxObserver]

Good Evening and leaving around 430am to get through Indy which is still a nightmare. Hopefully when I get back the weather becomes more active as we head into November. Rain chances until the middle of next week are slim at best and then we wait and see if the pattern starts changing.. Just hope Halloween is nice and not a fan when it rains even though I will just be handing out candy. Les I will have my snowfall prediction by early next week. Take Care and will probably not be back on here until next Monday.

Have a great trip, Tim, and tell your son and fam AV says Hi!

[MVWxObserver]

Yesterday CVG reached 79, DAY 78 and CMH 80 and today all 3 got to 78.

[tron777]

Good Evening and leaving around 430am to get through Indy which is still a nightmare. Hopefully when I get back the weather becomes more active as we head into November. Rain chances until the middle of next week are slim at best and then we wait and see if the pattern starts changing.. Just hope Halloween is nice and not a fan when it rains even though I will just be handing out candy. Les I will have my snowfall prediction by early next week. Take Care and will probably not be back on here until next Monday.

Have a safe trip Tim and a great time! Hope the family is doing well. Bring back some active weather, will ya please?

[tron777]

Cold front passed thru overnight and as a result, we are in the 40s this morning. Look for a cooler day in the 60s with some sunshine. Then we'll spike back into the 70s tomorrow ahead of our next front. A small chance for rain is there but it will remain light. Then we drop for the weekend into the 30s for lows (no frost expected) with highs in the 60 to 65 degree range., Folks up north may stay in the 50s on Sunday, it'll be close.

We are still expecting to soar back into the 70s next week Mon - Wed. Then do we get rain for Halloween or does it hold off until sometime in early November? The GFS does hold it off until the night of the31st into 11/1. Euro is doing the same so let's hope this trend holds. If it does, expecting lower 70s or so for the big day, so very mild.

In the extended range... The GFS continues to paint a big tropical system working from the Caribbean and getting into the Gulf around Election Day. This is not good what the model is showing for FL and the SE US. Helene 2.0??? Let's pray that this is wrong and a model fantasy. Early Nov looks wet per the Euro AI because there is no tropical action and cold front are easily able to make it thru the area. So that is the difference. Do the tropics slow things down or not. Stay tuned...

[MVWxObserver]

Cold front passed thru overnight and as a result, we are in the 40s this morning. Look for a cooler day in the 60s with some sunshine. Then we'll spike back into the 70s tomorrow ahead of our next front. A small chance for rain is there but it will remain light. Then we drop for the weekend into the 30s for lows (no frost expected) with highs in the 60 to 65 degree range., Folks up north may stay in the 50s on Sunday, it'll be close.

We are still expecting to soar back into the 70s next week Mon - Wed. Then do we get rain for Halloween or does it hold off until sometime in early November? The GFS does hold it off until the night of the31st into 11/1. Euro is doing the same so let's hope this trend holds. If it does, expecting lower 70s or so for the big day, so very mild.

In the extended range... The GFS continues to paint a big tropical system working from the Caribbean and getting into the Gulf around Election Day. This is not good what the model is showing for FL and the SE US. Helene 2.0??? Let's pray that this is wrong and a model fantasy. Early Nov looks wet per the Euro AI because there is no tropical action and cold front are easily able to make it thru the area. So that is the difference. Do the tropics slow things down or not. Stay tuned...

[tron777]

I started the Nov thread so we can talk about the extended range there.

[tron777]

66 at CVG today, 65 here. Then we track rain chances later Fri into Fri night. Hoping some folks will get a tenth of an inch. Probably going to be the best case scenario.

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / CMH reached 66 and DAY 64 today.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Happy Friday! We still have a chance for some light rain later today into this evening. Again, a tenth of an inch at most. Some of you will remain dry also. Then we cool down for the weekend as advertised and warm right back up next week. A rouge 80 degree reading is possible Tues or Wed. Our next system may bring some rain for Halloween the way it is looking right now. Timing TBD. It may come during trick-or-treat time or hold off until around 8pm which is at the tail end so stay tuned.,.. Temps in the lower 70s for the kiddos either way along with some breezy conditions the way it looks right now. Halloween is next Thursday so this can change but that is the current call by me.