Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Shouldn’t be a surprise The can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to a least a normal precip pattern. Models guaranteeing a top 5 driest October . Average highs are now headed to the low 60s and upper 50s to finish the month so a toasty feel for much of the last 7-10 days of the month

I'm wearing short sleeves again to work and have shorts on at home. We won't be far off from record highs either, especially if the GFS is right. This has been a pattern that has lingered on for months and months and just refuses to break. It is hard to say what will eventually break this pattern. A tropical system merging with a mid latitude system? An East Asia recurving typhoon? The MJO? It's truly hard to say, The -PDO has been relentless! I'm sure we have seen it happen before just not since I've been following the weather anyway. Truly incredible! Too bad we can't get a cold pattern to linger on like this ala the mid to late 1970s winters. The PDO is different these days though. When it went negative, it was not severely so as it has been in more recent times. I don't know what is causing these monster ridges to set up which is why the SST's are boiling in the marine areas (Off Japan and Newfoundland) Whatever the cause, the end result is a warm pattern for us and really for a good chunk of the country.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the PDO goes even more negative in the next week or two with the pattern continuing through this month. Let’s face it, this summer/fall long pattern has been easy to forecast, hasn’t been much of a challenge for theEU/GFS ensembles either . Changes will come to the 500mb of course at some point, but changes aren’t always for the better

[tron777]

Shouldn’t be a surprise The can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to a least a normal precip pattern. Models guaranteeing a top 5 driest October . Average highs are now headed to the low 60s and upper 50s to finish the month so a toasty feel for much of the last 7-10 days of the month

I'm wearing short sleeves again to work and have shorts on at home. We won't be far off from record highs either, especially if the GFS is right. This has been a pattern that has lingered on for months and months and just refuses to break. It is hard to say what will eventually break this pattern. A tropical system merging with a mid latitude system? An East Asia recurving typhoon? The MJO? It's truly hard to say, The -PDO has been relentless! I'm sure we have seen it happen before just not since I've been following the weather anyway. Truly incredible! Too bad we can't get a cold pattern to linger on like this ala the mid to late 1970s winters. The PDO is different these days though. When it went negative, it was not severely so as it has been in more recent times. I don't know what is causing these monster ridges to set up which is why the SST's are boiling in the marine areas (Off Japan and Newfoundland) Whatever the cause, the end result is a warm pattern for us and really for a good chunk of the country.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the PDO goes even more negative in the next week or two with the pattern continuing through this month. Let’s face it, this summer/fall long pattern has been easy to forecast, hasn’t been much of a challenge for theEU/GFS ensembles either . Changes will come to the 500mb of course at some point, but changes aren’t always for the better

I agree, The degree of negativity with the PDO index has been setting records some months and in the top 3 lowest or more in others. It has been running the show from a pattern standpoint and will continue to do so, Sure there are relaxation periods as there always is in weather where something else briefly takes over, but after a week or so, we're right back into the same ole, same ole with the -PDO at the wheel again. I went below normal in the snowfall contest this year and I hope I am not too high with my prediction.

[Bgoney]

I thought Canada’s anomalous warm temps were bad to finish the month, but it’s nothing compared to the arctic anomalies

IMG_2468.jpeg

[tron777]

I just checked to see the snow and ice coverage and you can easily see the impacts of the -PDO.

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/nh_snowcover/

Siberia is almost completely snow covered now with ice forming along the shoreline. On the Canadian side, only the extreme northern areas close to the Arctic Ocean has some snow cover along with the Northern 2/3's of Alaska. This tells me that the coldest air could be over Siberia again and / or Alaska. Not a good sign IMO the deeper into Fall we get. Again, we would be relaying on the Pacific for changes as we keep talking about and with that stout -PDO in place, those changes can certainly occur (-EPO / -WPO) but the frequency that we see that might be on the low side. Usually you'd get a +EPO along with a strong PV (+AO). Hope I am wrong about this.

[tpweather]

What a great map Bgoney. Shows the warmth in the arctic region but also shows Greenland which is the complete opposite with the same temps below normal compared to the ones in the arctic above normal. That is another reason I thought several cold fronts would come from the northeast early on this fall season and also into the winter. The northeast has seen below normal temps for the most part in October and the reason is when a front comes across Canada it really has very little cold in northwest and north central Canada but has some in northeast Canada and Greenland. Some of the cold we got last week was this cold air. Without that cold we would have never been near the 32 degree mark. Once much of Canada starts to turn colder in November we will be able to grab some cold air in the normal spots we see in November. Normally the cold in eastern Canada is something we tend to pick up later in the winter season and early spring and normally when you see this in April its because of the cold in the northeast hangs on much longer than the central parts of the country. The map is perfect and how Mother Nature is trying her best to even the playing field. This also shows the central part of the USA has not been able to tap much of this cold and they have been 4 degrees and more above normal for October while we are a tad over 1 degree above and parts of the northeast a tad over 1 degree below normal. Yes overall in the USA and Canada it has been milder than normal for October but changes are a coming. During the winter we want the extreme northeast USA,eastern Canada and Greenland to be warmer than normal but as the map shows that is not happening at the moment which is fine with me since its October.

[Bgoney]

Shouldn’t be a surprise The can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to a least a normal precip pattern. Models guaranteeing a top 5 driest October . Average highs are now headed to the low 60s and upper 50s to finish the month so a toasty feel for much of the last 7-10 days of the month

I'm wearing short sleeves again to work and have shorts on at home. We won't be far off from record highs either, especially if the GFS is right. This has been a pattern that has lingered on for months and months and just refuses to break. It is hard to say what will eventually break this pattern. A tropical system merging with a mid latitude system? An East Asia recurving typhoon? The MJO? It's truly hard to say, The -PDO has been relentless! I'm sure we have seen it happen before just not since I've been following the weather anyway. Truly incredible! Too bad we can't get a cold pattern to linger on like this ala the mid to late 1970s winters. The PDO is different these days though. When it went negative, it was not severely so as it has been in more recent times. I don't know what is causing these monster ridges to set up which is why the SST's are boiling in the marine areas (Off Japan and Newfoundland) Whatever the cause, the end result is a warm pattern for us and really for a good chunk of the country.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the PDO goes even more negative in the next week or two with the pattern continuing through this month. Let’s face it, this summer/fall long pattern has been easy to forecast, hasn’t been much of a challenge for theEU/GFS ensembles either . Changes will come to the 500mb of course at some point, but changes aren’t always for the better

I agree, The degree of negativity with the PDO index has been setting records some months and in the top 3 lowest or more in others. It has been running the show from a pattern standpoint and will continue to do so, Sure there are relaxation periods as there always is in weather where something else briefly takes over, but after a week or so, we're right back into the same ole, same ole with the -PDO at the wheel again. I went below normal in the snowfall contest this year and I hope I am not too high with my prediction.

My hope getting into November is that the MJO advances as it is currently modeled getting into the 7/8 phases and at high amplitude. If it does that should help moving the western trough into the central US , resulting in a more SW/S flow , at least opening up more of the Midwest/OV to get closer to normal QPF . EU ensemble November precip map shows the central part of US finally having close to normal monthly rains while the OV is 50/50 depending on how far east the trough makes it . ( MJO dependent)

[tron777]

Shouldn’t be a surprise The can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to a least a normal precip pattern. Models guaranteeing a top 5 driest October . Average highs are now headed to the low 60s and upper 50s to finish the month so a toasty feel for much of the last 7-10 days of the month

I'm wearing short sleeves again to work and have shorts on at home. We won't be far off from record highs either, especially if the GFS is right. This has been a pattern that has lingered on for months and months and just refuses to break. It is hard to say what will eventually break this pattern. A tropical system merging with a mid latitude system? An East Asia recurving typhoon? The MJO? It's truly hard to say, The -PDO has been relentless! I'm sure we have seen it happen before just not since I've been following the weather anyway. Truly incredible! Too bad we can't get a cold pattern to linger on like this ala the mid to late 1970s winters. The PDO is different these days though. When it went negative, it was not severely so as it has been in more recent times. I don't know what is causing these monster ridges to set up which is why the SST's are boiling in the marine areas (Off Japan and Newfoundland) Whatever the cause, the end result is a warm pattern for us and really for a good chunk of the country.

I wouldn’t be surprised if the PDO goes even more negative in the next week or two with the pattern continuing through this month. Let’s face it, this summer/fall long pattern has been easy to forecast, hasn’t been much of a challenge for theEU/GFS ensembles either . Changes will come to the 500mb of course at some point, but changes aren’t always for the better

I agree, The degree of negativity with the PDO index has been setting records some months and in the top 3 lowest or more in others. It has been running the show from a pattern standpoint and will continue to do so, Sure there are relaxation periods as there always is in weather where something else briefly takes over, but after a week or so, we're right back into the same ole, same ole with the -PDO at the wheel again. I went below normal in the snowfall contest this year and I hope I am not too high with my prediction.

My hope getting into November is that the MJO advances as it is currently modeled getting into the 7/8 phases and at high amplitude. If it does that should help moving the western trough into the central US , resulting in a more SW/S flow , at least opening up more of the Midwest/OV to get closer to normal QPF . EU ensemble November precip map shows the central part of US finally having close to normal monthly rains while the OV is 50/50 depending on how far east the trough makes it . ( MJO dependent)

Great post. I am watching that also and I even mentioned it on here the other day. This is the strongest push from the MJO into Phase 7 / 8 that we have seen in quite a while. Just hope that it doesn't die out thanks to the -PDO which is what has been happening for the last several years.

[tron777]

[dce]

Shouldn’t be a surprise The can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to a least a normal precip pattern. Models guaranteeing a top 5 driest October . Average highs are now headed to the low 60s and upper 50s to finish the month so a toasty feel for much of the last 7-10 days of the month

I'm wearing short sleeves again to work and have shorts on at home. We won't be far off from record highs either, especially if the GFS is right. This has been a pattern that has lingered on for months and months and just refuses to break. It is hard to say what will eventually break this pattern. A tropical system merging with a mid latitude system? An East Asia recurving typhoon? The MJO? It's truly hard to say, The -PDO has been relentless! I'm sure we have seen it happen before just not since I've been following the weather anyway. Truly incredible! Too bad we can't get a cold pattern to linger on like this ala the mid to late 1970s winters. The PDO is different these days though. When it went negative, it was not severely so as it has been in more recent times. I don't know what is causing these monster ridges to set up which is why the SST's are boiling in the marine areas (Off Japan and Newfoundland) Whatever the cause, the end result is a warm pattern for us and really for a good chunk of the country.

Just my opinion Les, but I think underwater volcanos are the reason why we are seeing these big, sometimes quick, spikes in sea surface temperatures in various parts of the Earth. I have read several articles alluding to this. That being said, we really do not know if that is the reason 100%. That area in the northwest Pacific lies right on the ring of fire. As do other parts of the ocean where we have seen these unusual anomalies. From a logical standpoint, again just my opinion, it would make sense.

[tron777]

Shouldn’t be a surprise The can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to a least a normal precip pattern. Models guaranteeing a top 5 driest October . Average highs are now headed to the low 60s and upper 50s to finish the month so a toasty feel for much of the last 7-10 days of the month

I'm wearing short sleeves again to work and have shorts on at home. We won't be far off from record highs either, especially if the GFS is right. This has been a pattern that has lingered on for months and months and just refuses to break. It is hard to say what will eventually break this pattern. A tropical system merging with a mid latitude system? An East Asia recurving typhoon? The MJO? It's truly hard to say, The -PDO has been relentless! I'm sure we have seen it happen before just not since I've been following the weather anyway. Truly incredible! Too bad we can't get a cold pattern to linger on like this ala the mid to late 1970s winters. The PDO is different these days though. When it went negative, it was not severely so as it has been in more recent times. I don't know what is causing these monster ridges to set up which is why the SST's are boiling in the marine areas (Off Japan and Newfoundland) Whatever the cause, the end result is a warm pattern for us and really for a good chunk of the country.

Just my opinion Les, but I think underwater volcanos are the reason why we are seeing these big, sometimes quick, spikes in sea surface temperatures in various parts of the Earth. I have read several articles alluding to this. That being said, we really do not know if that is the reason 100%. That area in the northwest Pacific lies right on the ring of fire. As do other parts of the ocean where we have seen these unusual anomalies. From a logical standpoint, again just my opinion, it would make sense.

That eruption Doug from Jan of 2022, from that Pacific underwater volcano (Tonga) injected so much water vapor high up into the stratosphere that modern day scientists have never seen anything like it! You could be on to something here. I have no idea, but I wonder if the Medieval warm period had anything occur like that prior to it beginning? That would be some interesting research, Current research on the Medieval warm period suggests that we had an increase in solar activity and a decrease in volcanic activity so what I am proposing might be total BS! However, we are seeing an increase in solar activity with solar cycle 25, much more then scientists in that field expected. Maybe our current warm period is a combination of the Tonga volcano and increased solar activity? I wish I was smarter in the area of climate research lol

[Bgoney]

System near Halloween is in the fringes of the EU now. For our area has a line of showers moving through with a cool front .

[tron777]

System near Halloween is in the fringes of the EU now. For our area has a line of showers moving through with a cool front .

12Z GFS finally showed something similar also.

[MVWxObserver]

Another beaut of an Indian Summer day!

My folks and I voted early.

Currently 77 here in G'ville.

[Bgoney]

Looks like cvg topped out at 74

[tron777]

Looks like cvg topped out at 74

Yep! 5pm climate report confirms. I had 76. I'm usually not warmer then CVG.

[Bgoney]

Looks like cvg topped out at 74

Yep! 5pm climate report confirms. I had 76. I'm usually not warmer then CVG.

That is a little strange , KDAY had 76 also

[Bgoney]

Changes and upgrades to EURO coming mid November. Don’t know if the freebie model sites will offer the HRES stuff . A few highlights


HRES and ENS Control run will be computationally identical.

Both HRES and ENS will run:

to day 15 (step 360) for the 00 and 12 runs, and
to day 6 (step 144) for the 06 and 18 runs (as part of BC Optional Programme)

Medium range

2m temperature and 10m wind speed forecasts are improved in the short and medium ranges (due to land surface model upgrades, and to data assimilation changes related to 2m temperature, soil moisture and snow) .
For 2m temperature forecasts the largest impacts are for the winter months in the northern hemisphere, where the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is improved by 11% at day 1 and 2% at day 10.
10 m wind speed forecasts are improved throughout the year. The largest impacts are for the winter months in the northern hemisphere, where the CRPS is improved by 12% at day 1 and 6% at day 10

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 75 and both DAY / CMH 76 today.

[tpweather]

Shouldn’t be a surprise The can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to a least a normal precip pattern. Models guaranteeing a top 5 driest October . Average highs are now headed to the low 60s and upper 50s to finish the month so a toasty feel for much of the last 7-10 days of the month

I'm wearing short sleeves again to work and have shorts on at home. We won't be far off from record highs either, especially if the GFS is right. This has been a pattern that has lingered on for months and months and just refuses to break. It is hard to say what will eventually break this pattern. A tropical system merging with a mid latitude system? An East Asia recurving typhoon? The MJO? It's truly hard to say, The -PDO has been relentless! I'm sure we have seen it happen before just not since I've been following the weather anyway. Truly incredible! Too bad we can't get a cold pattern to linger on like this ala the mid to late 1970s winters. The PDO is different these days though. When it went negative, it was not severely so as it has been in more recent times. I don't know what is causing these monster ridges to set up which is why the SST's are boiling in the marine areas (Off Japan and Newfoundland) Whatever the cause, the end result is a warm pattern for us and really for a good chunk of the country.

Just my opinion Les, but I think underwater volcanos are the reason why we are seeing these big, sometimes quick, spikes in sea surface temperatures in various parts of the Earth. I have read several articles alluding to this. That being said, we really do not know if that is the reason 100%. That area in the northwest Pacific lies right on the ring of fire. As do other parts of the ocean where we have seen these unusual anomalies. From a logical standpoint, again just my opinion, it would make sense.

Hey Doug and I have thinking the same thing for quite awhile. It really makes sense if you get these underwater Volcano's. When you have these above ground all that heat is thrown into atmosphere which in turn can cause the sun having problems getting through and you can have a decent period of colder temps especially higher latitude ones. When you thrown this same amount of heat underwater it just gets to the surface of the ocean and the ocean temps rise big time. I have read many articles on this and have thought for some time that this really makes sense. I do agree its not 100p/c that this is causing the warmer oceans in that part of the world but I believe like usual once we get more info on this it may turn out this is correct. There may have been times when the same waters were below normal in temp and that may be caused by the lack of volcano activity. There is still so much we don't know about the weather,climate and we may never know exactly what is happening because Mother Nature tends to have the last word and my guess a good reason to keep this planet going day to day.

[airwolf76]

almost record highs this week. crazy to think since its been a beautiful even below avg fall so far. but i guess you knew it was never gonna last. its crazy to think if we end up going above average and still way below avg precip. something is gonna have to change next month. its getting pretty bad

[tron777]

Looks like cvg topped out at 74

Yep! 5pm climate report confirms. I had 76. I'm usually not warmer then CVG.

That is a little strange , KDAY had 76 also

The overnight report changed it to 75, so a little more in line with the rest of us.

[tron777]

Changes and upgrades to EURO coming mid November. Don’t know if the freebie model sites will offer the HRES stuff . A few highlights


HRES and ENS Control run will be computationally identical.

Both HRES and ENS will run:

to day 15 (step 360) for the 00 and 12 runs, and
to day 6 (step 144) for the 06 and 18 runs (as part of BC Optional Programme)

Medium range

2m temperature and 10m wind speed forecasts are improved in the short and medium ranges (due to land surface model upgrades, and to data assimilation changes related to 2m temperature, soil moisture and snow) .
For 2m temperature forecasts the largest impacts are for the winter months in the northern hemisphere, where the Continuous Ranked Probability Score (CRPS) is improved by 11% at day 1 and 2% at day 10.
10 m wind speed forecasts are improved throughout the year. The largest impacts are for the winter months in the northern hemisphere, where the CRPS is improved by 12% at day 1 and 6% at day 10

That is cool that the Euro will go out almost as far as the GFS now. It'll be interesting to see what it cooks up in the fantasy range. I'm sure there will be plenty of entertainment and digital snow for us.

[tron777]

almost record highs this week. crazy to think since its been a beautiful even below avg fall so far. but i guess you knew it was never gonna last. its crazy to think if we end up going above average and still way below avg precip. something is gonna have to change next month. its getting pretty bad

You might be in the 80s for Halloween ahead of a cold front that will potentially be in the OV.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Only forecast change I have in the near term is a small rain chance Fri night into Sat. This is not a big deal and most folks won't see anything anyway. Those that do maybe a ground wetter or a dust settler is all that is expected. We cool down this weekend but warm right back up next week. The bigger question is the Halloween forecast. 0Z GFS is back to being dry again and wait until early Nov. 0Z Euro has the front with a band of moderate rain for Trick-or-Treat time. Stay tuned...

[tpweather]

Concern and maybe. I just watch Joe B. with his weekly video and he is a little worried about the tropics and how they may not be finished. He is one imo that does a really good job with the tropics and just average at best for winter weather. No doubt he is a big mjo watcher and rightfully so. I believe we are finished with any system hitting the mainland USA but again only time will tell. Hopefully the mjo continues to head through phase 6 and 7 and also 8 over the next few weeks. The waters are still quite warm in the eastern Caribbean compared to western areas so that is the most likely place for a storm to form though this time of year I believe most would maybe hit those islands and then get sheered off as it moves north.