Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Les, Bgoney or Tim,

Do you have any idea what the wx models / ensembles are showing in general re the week of Halloween? I know its two weeks away but the community neighborhood where my folks and I reside are having a Bocce ball tournament playoff event that week and so am wondering what the outlook may be for that period?

Thank you,
Eric

If the trough is slower to head our way due to the ridge, (and that is what today's GFS showed) then it'll be mild in the 70s and dry.

[MVWxObserver]

Les, Bgoney or Tim,

Do you have any idea what the wx models / ensembles are showing in general re the week of Halloween? I know its two weeks away but the community neighborhood where my folks and I reside are having a Bocce ball tournament playoff event that week and so am wondering what the outlook may be for that period?

Thank you,
Eric

If the trough is slower to head our way due to the ridge, (and that is what today's GFS showed) then it'll be mild in the 70s and dry.

Great to hear Bro re that model solution if it holds. **Knocking on wood**

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 72, DAY 71 and CMH 74 today.

[tron777]

I also hit 72 today after a low of 38. CVG's low was 42.

[tron777]

Les, Bgoney or Tim,

Do you have any idea what the wx models / ensembles are showing in general re the week of Halloween? I know its two weeks away but the community neighborhood where my folks and I reside are having a Bocce ball tournament playoff event that week and so am wondering what the outlook may be for that period?

Thank you,
Eric

If the trough is slower to head our way due to the ridge, (and that is what today's GFS showed) then it'll be mild in the 70s and dry.

Great to hear Bro re that model solution if it holds. **Knocking on wood**

18Z GFS brings a front in with some light rain on the 27th but it's a weak front. Then we are warm and dry after that.

[dce]

October 19, 1989. 35 years ago. One of the most memorable snowfalls I can remember. Listened to the 11:00 o'clock news on the 18th and the forecast was for a mix of rain and snow that night. A chance of rain showers the next day. I remember looking outside at 11:45 after the news and it was already snowing. Woke up at 2:30 am and heavy snow was falling with the sound of trees crackling everywhere because of the heavy wet snow and the leaves still being on the trees. It stayed in the low 30's the next day and we had 5-6 inches area wide by that afternoon on the 19th.

[Jacob755]

Latest GFS run for Halloween yes I know this is one run and we’re still about a week and 5 days away seems like the high-pressure starts to break down after Halloween, but I’m still being skeptical about it

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY 45TH BIRTHDAY AARON!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

[tpweather]

All is quiet on the western front unless you are in western Alaska. The big storm heading into that area with some spots getting between 20-30 inches of snow. Locally the beat goes on and warm days and cool nights and I almost forgot what a cloud looks like. November-February will no doubt remind me of what clouds look like though last winter was somewhat sunnier than normal but not expecting that this winter

[Bgoney]

Don’t put your shorts and t-shirs away, anytime soon. Get those propane tanks for the grill refilled. “Grill baby Grill “. Blow those pools back up!!…. Water those evergreens!!!

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[tron777]

Good morning all! First off, let's begin by wishing Aaron (fyrfyter) a very happy birthday today! Hope you enjoy your day Sir!

On to the weather.... Dry and mild looks to be the name of the game for the rest of October. There still could be a front that tries to work in here in the 25-27th time frame but even if it did, rainfall amounts would be light due to our dry air mass in place, and the fact that the front would be weakening due to that massive ridge in place. I am also seeing signs that we start off November with the big ridge in place so more dry and mild weather would be expected. Models are backing off on that wetter pattern that looked to be kicking in the 1st week of November. I see a lot of 70s for highs (and some 60s too) with 40s for lows. Remember by Halloween, highs around 60 and lows around 40 is avg at CVG so once we kick off November then highs in the 50s and lows in the 30s are the averages. So in short, well above normal temps and well below normal precip is what looks to be coming our way. This pattern just refuses to budge with the massive -PDO controlling the entire weather pattern downstream over North America. Alaska / Western Canada will continue to build up the cold air and snow as well as the Rockies in the Western US. People in the East will still be in snoozer-ville for the next several weeks.

Teleconnections show a -PNA, +AO and +NAO at this time and all of that means mild weather for us. The MJO is still showing signs of staying strong and getting into Phase 7 by early November and into Phase 8 after that. So if correct, we would still see colder / stormier conditions by mid to late November. One last thing... I am watching the Western Pacific as far as the tropics go. We have a strong tropical wave (96 W) which is expected to develop and become a typhoon down the road. If the guidance is right with this system, the expectation is for it to do the ole typhoon recurve NE of Japan and create a big storm in the Bering Sea. That could pump up some ridging in the EPO domain (AK / Western Canada) to allow for a cool down in early November so we'll have to wait and see how that plays out. If the typhoon doesn't form or track correctly then what I have outlined here as well as the maps above that Bgoney posted will 100% come to fruition.

[tpweather]

Great Post Les and I believe the thoughts on here have been dead on and it really is following a true La Nina which is normally mild in the fall and then a switch to cold and stormy in a quick matter. Of course after that we tend to be stormy throughout the winter but the rain/snow line is normally just to our northwest but again much of that has to do with snow cover and how strong the southeast ridge is this winter. Above normal clippers likely as well but again these are narrow paths

[tron777]

Great Post Les and I believe the thoughts on here have been dead on and it really is following a true La Nina which is normally mild in the fall and then a switch to cold and stormy in a quick matter. Of course after that we tend to be stormy throughout the winter but the rain/snow line is normally just to our northwest but again much of that has to do with snow cover and how strong the southeast ridge is this winter. Above normal clippers likely as well but again these are narrow paths

The only thing I have had to change is my precip Outlook. I thought late this month or early next month would offer up a wetter change. IMO the way things are looking now, is that those thoughts will be delayed a bit.

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues what I am talking about and the Atlantic tropics may linger on into November as well. It isn't over yet!

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and Happy Birthday to Aaron. Was not sure if that was Aaron or A aron. Les nice win by those Lions. Not much change in the models and I am not worried about the tropics. Sure you can get some development but with the MJO leaving phase 6 that is not a good sign for tropical development that would hit the USA. Sure you can get some south of the USA but chances IMO is less than 1 p/c. Yes we will get busier and models as we know when changes start to happen go back and forth for several days and that is what they are doing at the moment. I would expect by late week we will see the models start to ramp up chances in the longer term. This will happen again later in November when the lovely gfs will show a big cold shot to early and then when you that model has caught up then the cold air comes. Models have a bias and will be interesting to see the Euro AI model this season and so far not bad and yes has done better with temps as we know in the summer the Euro is just too hot and sometimes in the winter it cannot find the cold or if so its rather late. So yes the Euro AI has done better and lets see what happens when the pattern gets busy over the next month or so.

[MVWxObserver]

The guys and gals at ILN are a bit late with today's CVG, DAY and CMH temps.

[tron777]

Good Afternoon and Happy Birthday to Aaron. Was not sure if that was Aaron or A aron. Les nice win by those Lions. Not much change in the models and I am not worried about the tropics. Sure you can get some development but with the MJO leaving phase 6 that is not a good sign for tropical development that would hit the USA. Sure you can get some south of the USA but chances IMO is less than 1 p/c. Yes we will get busier and models as we know when changes start to happen go back and forth for several days and that is what they are doing at the moment. I would expect by late week we will see the models start to ramp up chances in the longer term. This will happen again later in November when the lovely gfs will show a big cold shot to early and then when you that model has caught up then the cold air comes. Models have a bias and will be interesting to see the Euro AI model this season and so far not bad and yes has done better with temps as we know in the summer the Euro is just too hot and sometimes in the winter it cannot find the cold or if so its rather late. So yes the Euro AI has done better and lets see what happens when the pattern gets busy over the next month or so.

12Z Euro AI still shows a weak front around the 25th, not much rain, but a little bit then we are dry until November when a front hangs around the area with rain coming in from time to time. So the GFS has jumped ship with the Euro AI staying the course. The regular or OP Euro doesn't quite go far enough out just yet.

[tron777]

The guys and gals at ILN are a bit late with today's CVG, DAY and CMH temps.

5pm climate report came out about 10 mins ago, Bro. CVG 73, DAY 74, and CMH also at 74. I hit 74 as well.

[tron777]

Good morning all! We are much warmer this morning in the 40s (47 as of 4am at CVG, 43 currently here). Highs this week will be in the mid if not the upper 70s thru Wednesday. A cold front will knock us back into the 60s for Thurs. We're back into the 70s for Fri with another front, which again, drops us into the 60s for the weekend. Maybe a shower on Friday but I highly doubt it due to the drought and dry air mass in place. I will keep the next 7 days dry at this time. Lows this week will mainly reside in the 40s with one night in the 50s (probably Tues).

Otherwise, we warm right back up after that. Halloween continues to look very warm. GFS has been showing lower 80s which would be a record high! CVG's record is 81 set back in 1950. GFS is the warmest model mind you and really shows a very strong ridge. Still waiting to see how early Nov looks. GFS wants to mainly keep the same pattern going. Euro doesn't go out that far yet. The Euro AI now keeps the rain to our NW (18Z run was the last run as of this post). We'll see I guess. I'm not as confident as I once was that is for sure with regards to us getting wet in early Nov. We may need to wait as I said before to mid to late November. I'm still not convinced that the tropics are done either in the Atlantic basin.

[Bgoney]

Shouldn’t be a surprise The can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to a least a normal precip pattern. Models guaranteeing a top 5 driest October . Average highs are now headed to the low 60s and upper 50s to finish the month so a toasty feel for much of the last 7-10 days of the month

[tron777]

Shouldn’t be a surprise The can keeps getting kicked down the road as far as a return to a least a normal precip pattern. Models guaranteeing a top 5 driest October . Average highs are now headed to the low 60s and upper 50s to finish the month so a toasty feel for much of the last 7-10 days of the month

I'm wearing short sleeves again to work and have shorts on at home. We won't be far off from record highs either, especially if the GFS is right. This has been a pattern that has lingered on for months and months and just refuses to break. It is hard to say what will eventually break this pattern. A tropical system merging with a mid latitude system? An East Asia recurving typhoon? The MJO? It's truly hard to say, The -PDO has been relentless! I'm sure we have seen it happen before just not since I've been following the weather anyway. Truly incredible! Too bad we can't get a cold pattern to linger on like this ala the mid to late 1970s winters. The PDO is different these days though. When it went negative, it was not severely so as it has been in more recent times. I don't know what is causing these monster ridges to set up which is why the SST's are boiling in the marine areas (Off Japan and Newfoundland) Whatever the cause, the end result is a warm pattern for us and really for a good chunk of the country.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another week of mainly dry weather and if we get a shower with the two cold fronts this week you are the lucky one. Hey Les concerning Tropical Activity and my post was concerning any tropical system hitting the USA which I believe is really low but that does not mean a tropical system cant form in the Atlantic.

As of yesterday we are just a tad over 1 degree above normal for temps. This week we will add to the above normal temps and by the end of the month I would expect us to be in that 2-3 degrees above normal. So yes warm but nothing earth shattering by any means. I do believe we get busy in November and not worried about the models this far out. They were way behind with the cold air in mid-October so I can only post what I believe will happen and not so much with the models. Big storms change patterns and the one in Alaska which is bringing up some warm air ahead of the system will no doubt bring winter to them later this week. This should move eastward and a trough should develop over the western say 1/3 of the country. This should also lead to storminess out there later this week and by early November more storminess over a wider area of the country. Still will be mild for us and I believe that continues for much of November but hopefully some decent rains for the month.

[tron777]

Good Morning and another week of mainly dry weather and if we get a shower with the two cold fronts this week you are the lucky one. Hey Les concerning Tropical Activity and my post was concerning any tropical system hitting the USA which I believe is really low but that does not mean a tropical system cant form in the Atlantic.

As of yesterday we are just a tad over 1 degree above normal for temps. This week we will add to the above normal temps and by the end of the month I would expect us to be in that 2-3 degrees above normal. So yes warm but nothing earth shattering by any means. I do believe we get busy in November and not worried about the models this far out. They were way behind with the cold air in mid-October so I can only post what I believe will happen and not so much with the models. Big storms change patterns and the one in Alaska which is bringing up some warm air ahead of the system will no doubt bring winter to them later this week. This should move eastward and a trough should develop over the western say 1/3 of the country. This should also lead to storminess out there later this week and by early November more storminess over a wider area of the country. Still will be mild for us and I believe that continues for much of November but hopefully some decent rains for the month.

I gotcha Tim, all good. I also want to be clear that my thoughts on the tropics not being done yet, means the same thing. I also am not implying that anything will hit the CONUS. I do think that another named system is possible in early November before we are done for the season. We also share the same thoughts for November. Hoping mid to late month that we see some changes, but it is looking doubtful before then at this time.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another week of mainly dry weather and if we get a shower with the two cold fronts this week you are the lucky one. Hey Les concerning Tropical Activity and my post was concerning any tropical system hitting the USA which I believe is really low but that does not mean a tropical system cant form in the Atlantic.

As of yesterday we are just a tad over 1 degree above normal for temps. This week we will add to the above normal temps and by the end of the month I would expect us to be in that 2-3 degrees above normal. So yes warm but nothing earth shattering by any means. I do believe we get busy in November and not worried about the models this far out. They were way behind with the cold air in mid-October so I can only post what I believe will happen and not so much with the models. Big storms change patterns and the one in Alaska which is bringing up some warm air ahead of the system will no doubt bring winter to them later this week. This should move eastward and a trough should develop over the western say 1/3 of the country. This should also lead to storminess out there later this week and by early November more storminess over a wider area of the country. Still will be mild for us and I believe that continues for much of November but hopefully some decent rains for the month.

I gotcha Tim, all good. I also want to be clear that my thoughts on the tropics not being done yet, means the same thing. I also am not implying that anything will hit the CONUS. I do think that another named system is possible in early November before we are done for the season. We also share the same thoughts for November. Hoping mid to late month that we see some changes, but it is looking doubtful before then at this time.

Good Morning Les and we are on the same page except I do believe the storminess gets in here by early November. The flux of models going back and forth is something I pay attention too but in no way does it matter when making my forecast. Yes we need the rain but just a few inches below normal for the year and if you go back say the last 5 years we are above normal in rainfall. Mother Nature will balance things out and no doubt the oceans are much warmer than 30-40 years ago that tells me they were probably much colder than normal during the 70's and 80's. Will they turn somewhat colder again and yes but when I have no idea but wish I had a Crystal Ball which BTW is a great song by STYX who should be in the Rock-n-Roll Hof. Jethro Tull not in is a disgrace but i digress and will keep it to weather in this section.

[tron777]

Good Morning and another week of mainly dry weather and if we get a shower with the two cold fronts this week you are the lucky one. Hey Les concerning Tropical Activity and my post was concerning any tropical system hitting the USA which I believe is really low but that does not mean a tropical system cant form in the Atlantic.

As of yesterday we are just a tad over 1 degree above normal for temps. This week we will add to the above normal temps and by the end of the month I would expect us to be in that 2-3 degrees above normal. So yes warm but nothing earth shattering by any means. I do believe we get busy in November and not worried about the models this far out. They were way behind with the cold air in mid-October so I can only post what I believe will happen and not so much with the models. Big storms change patterns and the one in Alaska which is bringing up some warm air ahead of the system will no doubt bring winter to them later this week. This should move eastward and a trough should develop over the western say 1/3 of the country. This should also lead to storminess out there later this week and by early November more storminess over a wider area of the country. Still will be mild for us and I believe that continues for much of November but hopefully some decent rains for the month.

I gotcha Tim, all good. I also want to be clear that my thoughts on the tropics not being done yet, means the same thing. I also am not implying that anything will hit the CONUS. I do think that another named system is possible in early November before we are done for the season. We also share the same thoughts for November. Hoping mid to late month that we see some changes, but it is looking doubtful before then at this time.

Good Morning Les and we are on the same page except I do believe the storminess gets in here by early November. The flux of models going back and forth is something I pay attention too but in no way does it matter when making my forecast. Yes we need the rain but just a few inches below normal for the year and if you go back say the last 5 years we are above normal in rainfall. Mother Nature will balance things out and no doubt the oceans are much warmer than 30-40 years ago that tells me they were probably much colder than normal during the 70's and 80's. Will they turn somewhat colder again and yes but when I have no idea but wish I had a Crystal Ball which BTW is a great song by STYX who should be in the Rock-n-Roll Hof. Jethro Tull not in is a disgrace but i digress and will keep it to weather in this section.

Good morning Tim! I also think that the balancing act will occur this winter as the rains should most certainly return. The only thing we differ on is the timing as in when? We are only like 2-3 weeks apart on this occurring so that's not really too bad at all IMO since we are still 10 days away from November starting. As far as Rock n Roll goes, absolutely agree with your thoughts there! There are a lot of great acts that are not in that should be.