Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

I still do not see any significant rain chances until we get towards the end of the month. 0.15" is it for rainfall at CVG so another below avg month likely in the books by the time Halloween comes and goes.

Here’s the top ten pitiful list.

Wow.., that is awful! I see 2022 on that list. Other then the Blizzard around Christmas, that was the highlight of that winter for us. Total snowfall at CVG that season (22-23) was only 14.4" Ugh... noooo thanks, but unless we see changes in the pacific as we've been talking about in the early winter thoughts thread, an outcome like that will probably be our fate again.

[Bgoney]

Some local lows from this morning. On the drive in , it wasn’t nearly as frosty as yesterday was

IMG_2458.jpeg

[tron777]

I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

[Bgoney]

Red flag day for the plains and expanding drought with those gusty 40-50 mph SW desert winds and well above normal temperature's

IMG_2460.jpeg

[tron777]

I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

I stand corrected. ILN has updated their county outline map as seen here:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

The program has ended for our extreme Eastern tier of counties. Basically East of Columbus and the Scioto Valley.

[Bgoney]

I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

I stand corrected. ILN has updated their county outline map as seen here:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

The program has ended for our extreme Eastern tier of counties. Basically East of Columbus and the Scioto Valley.

I don’t know Les , looks like you had it right for most of the region, those upper 20 temps were rare and only in the usual colder spots east. Low to mid 30s were the rule

[tpweather]

I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

I stand corrected. ILN has updated their county outline map as seen here:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

The program has ended for our extreme Eastern tier of counties. Basically East of Columbus and the Scioto Valley.

I don’t know Les , looks like you had it right for most of the region, those upper 20 temps were rare and only in the usual colder spots east. Low to mid 30s were the rule

Yes another frost this morning but not quite what I saw Wednesday morning. Yes the temps played out like we thought and like always a few upper 20's but not one you see that last more than an hour at best. Usually need 3 hours or so at 29 and below to really get a nice freeze. Yes the growing season has slowed up and even without a frost the season is winding down as usual. Leaves of course will be really turn colors with the clear sky and colder temps and peak should be sometime later next week. Heading to Wisconsin in a week and the peak is already there so will be interesting to see how the leftover colors look up there. Hope to see a day late next week of a few flurries up there before I leave.

[tpweather]

Fun to watch over the next week and see how Alaska will be getting into some big time snows. This is good and love to see the build up but the one downside is if they continue to get snow into early December sometimes cold air will remain in a friendly area and that usually includes bit time snow build up. Will worry about that in 6 weeks but I love seeing the watches and warnings starting to be posted and this could be a 5-7day kind of storminess.

[tron777]

I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

I stand corrected. ILN has updated their county outline map as seen here:

https://www.weather.gov/iln/fallfrostfreeze

The program has ended for our extreme Eastern tier of counties. Basically East of Columbus and the Scioto Valley.

I don’t know Les , looks like you had it right for most of the region, those upper 20 temps were rare and only in the usual colder spots east. Low to mid 30s were the rule

Thanks, but the map shows that they cancelled the program in these counties anyway despite what I said. It was a small area though to your point.

[MVWxObserver]

I think we'll get one more frost advisory for tonight, then it'll be a wrap on those for a bit. To my knowledge, most areas have not seen a hard freeze yet to effectively end the growing season so the Frost / Freeze program from the boys, should still be in effect.

My Dad and I took our Geraniums and Mums back outside today as the low on Fri morning is progged for around 35 or 36 up this way.

[MVWxObserver]

Its been confirmed that the IDF have taken out the top leader of Hamas, Yahya Sinwar! Good riddance!

Currently 55 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 60.

[tron777]

Today's 12Z GFS still looks promising with regards to some rain later this month. Not much else to talk about in the short and medium range.

[tron777]

...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...Temperatures as low as 34 degrees may result in frost
formation.

* WHERE...Portions of east central and southeast Indiana, northeast
and northern Kentucky, and central, south central, southwest, and
west central Ohio.

* WHEN...From 2 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday.


This should be the last one for a while at least for the Cincy area.

[tron777]

Drought update from the CPC - The link below is for the Midwest. Still pretty ugly as expected.

https://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/CurrentM ... px?Midwest

[tron777]

12Z Euro only has 0.03" at CVG for rain over the next 10 days so you may as well say it's dry. I know Bgoney has been mentioning the Euro AI from time to time as it has been doing better so I looked at it and it looked similar to the GFS for the last week of the month. If those two models are correct, we get a bit of light rain with a front around the 25th or so, it stalls then one low, possibly two ride up along that front to produce some decent rains as the month winds down. We shall see of course being this far out, but over the next week or so, I am going with a dry forecast subject to change around the 25th.

[tron777]

I hit 62 today, CVG got to at least 60. 5pm climate report isn't out yet so I'll go with that for now.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / CMH reached 61 and DAY 62 today.

[tron777]

Good morning and Happy Friday folks! 37 here, 44 as of 4am at CVG so no frost except in outlying areas this morning. I could see one issued for folks up north but for our area here in Cincy, that should be it for a while. We need the rain obviously, but we sure have had a lot of nice weather lately. This time of year, the humidity is low and you don't get that blazing heat! The 70s still feel warm to me though. Anyway, we'll see how things look towards the end of next week. This is when our next front approaches so that is when our next chances of rain will be. Until then, another beauty of a weekend upcoming as well as a good chunk of next week. Sometime on Thurs or Fri is when that next front is due in here.

The best chance of rain, still looks to be towards Halloween on into early November time period. A shot of cold air behind it, but then IMO we warm back up again. November looks mild to me at least the first half of the month anyway.

[tron777]

Drought update that came out yesterday from the boys. Recall that the improvement was because of Helene. The underlying problem is absolutely still there for a good chunk of the Midwest, not just us.

Drought1.png

Drought2.png

Drought3.png

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and no doubt it has been dry but the mid-west say in Iowa,Illinois,Wisconsin had a very wet spring and early summer but since then they have been dry and little help from any tropical moisture. Hopefully the late fall and winter will bring us plenty of rainfall though you would like to see this in spring and summer during the growing season

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and no doubt it has been dry but the mid-west say in Iowa,Illinois,Wisconsin had a very wet spring and early summer but since then they have been dry and little help from any tropical moisture. Hopefully the late fall and winter will bring us plenty of rainfall though you would like to see this in spring and summer during the growing season

Exactly Tim! From a farmers standpoint it would be useless. Still though, the trees and what not could use it as well as our lawns before the winter cold slows everything down. Even though I expect mild weather as a whole for the foreseeable future, I am still optimistic that we can start seeing more rain anyway as we get toward the end of this month and on into November. That has been my call for a while now and I am going to be sticking to it. Yes, a shot of cold air can occur but it'll be in and out, much like we have been seeing. As Bgoney and I have been talking about, you need to see the EPO go negative to get cold shots to come our way and sustainable cold at that, or it'll be mild thanks to that stubborn -PDO which continues to drive the pattern across the Pacific downstream into the CONUS. A -EPO / +WPO combo is what we have seen the last several winters. If we can somehow get a period of -EPO / -WPO then a more sustainable wintry pattern would occur with very cold, arctic air. As usual, we will be monitoring this as time goes on as we always do.

[tpweather]

During the next 6 days including today temps will average above normal on highs but with such a dry air mass the overnights lows will be near normal. For the month so far we are about 1.5 degrees above normal and for the year around 3 degrees above. Rainfall we are very dry this month and could easily get into the top 10 unless we have a decent rainfall at the end of the month and yearly were just a bit over 2 inches below normal. So yes we have had some dry weather this year but the overall picture is not quite that bad and a decent November and December could bring us back to normal but the totals don't always tell the story but when it rains is more important.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and no doubt it has been dry but the mid-west say in Iowa,Illinois,Wisconsin had a very wet spring and early summer but since then they have been dry and little help from any tropical moisture. Hopefully the late fall and winter will bring us plenty of rainfall though you would like to see this in spring and summer during the growing season

Exactly Tim! From a farmers standpoint it would be useless. Still though, the trees and what not could use it as well as our lawns before the winter cold slows everything down. Even though I expect mild weather as a whole for the foreseeable future, I am still optimistic that we can start seeing more rain anyway as we get toward the end of this month and on into November. That has been my call for a while now and I am going to be sticking to it. Yes, a shot of cold air can occur but it'll be in and out, much like we have been seeing. As Bgoney and I have been talking about, you need to see the EPO go negative to get cold shots to come our way and sustainable cold at that, or it'll be mild thanks to that stubborn -PDO which continues to drive the pattern across the Pacific downstream into the CONUS. A -EPO / +WPO combo is what we have seen the last several winters. If we can somehow get a period of -EPO / -WPO then a more sustainable wintry pattern would occur with very cold, arctic air. As usual, we will be monitoring this as time goes on as we always do.

Les a wonderful post. I agree 100p/c and yes getting a few periods with a -EPO/-WPO we should see some decent cold shots. No doubt the snow cover in Canada imo should be on the heavier side so getting cold on this side of the globe should be no problem but getting it further south is something that will probably come in spurts and with a La Nina normally we get a decent shot late November or early December.After that we just hope we get what you stated above. The warm waters off the coast of Japan is really amazing and sure have seen it in the past but not for this long of duration. Part of that I believe is the pacific tropical season over the past several years has been way down in terms of storms in though this year better than say the past 3 or so.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and no doubt it has been dry but the mid-west say in Iowa,Illinois,Wisconsin had a very wet spring and early summer but since then they have been dry and little help from any tropical moisture. Hopefully the late fall and winter will bring us plenty of rainfall though you would like to see this in spring and summer during the growing season

Exactly Tim! From a farmers standpoint it would be useless. Still though, the trees and what not could use it as well as our lawns before the winter cold slows everything down. Even though I expect mild weather as a whole for the foreseeable future, I am still optimistic that we can start seeing more rain anyway as we get toward the end of this month and on into November. That has been my call for a while now and I am going to be sticking to it. Yes, a shot of cold air can occur but it'll be in and out, much like we have been seeing. As Bgoney and I have been talking about, you need to see the EPO go negative to get cold shots to come our way and sustainable cold at that, or it'll be mild thanks to that stubborn -PDO which continues to drive the pattern across the Pacific downstream into the CONUS. A -EPO / +WPO combo is what we have seen the last several winters. If we can somehow get a period of -EPO / -WPO then a more sustainable wintry pattern would occur with very cold, arctic air. As usual, we will be monitoring this as time goes on as we always do.

Les a wonderful post. I agree 100p/c and yes getting a few periods with a -EPO/-WPO we should see some decent cold shots. No doubt the snow cover in Canada imo should be on the heavier side so getting cold on this side of the globe should be no problem but getting it further south is something that will probably come in spurts and with a La Nina normally we get a decent shot late November or early December.After that we just hope we get what you stated above. The warm waters off the coast of Japan is really amazing and sure have seen it in the past but not for this long of duration. Part of that I believe is the pacific tropical season over the past several years has been way down in terms of storms in though this year better than say the past 3 or so.

Thanks Tim. With a -WPO / -EPO combo the North Pacific high would go more pole ward and thus allowing cold air to move into the Eastern US with ridging out West and a trough over the East. Even if the EPO is negative, if the WPO is positive, the North Pacific high is more flat so the trough can tuck itself into the West and we get a SE ridge for us. Unfortunately, that will probably be the pattern more often then not this winter thanks to the -PDO and the MJO going thru phases 4-6 repeatedly. However, as I just said, if we get periods of -EPO and -WPO then our chances for wintry action will come. It's just the way it goes,

[Bgoney]

You guys got it covered. Basically dry east of the Rockies for meaningful rain the rest of the month except possibly the last couple days. Southern Canada remains above normal temps for rest of month with little snow accumulations, along with most of the rest of lower 48 , excluding the west. November needs some major changes