Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

10 day Qpf

IMG_2416.jpeg

[tron777]

It's a bummer that we can't get any rain. High of 71 IMBY, CVG probably got to 70 or 71 as well.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 71 and both DAY / CMH 70 today.

[tpweather]

I see the NWS really went colder on their 6-10 day forecast. These tropical systems and especially ones this big make models look foolish this time of year when it comes to temps. So much warmth overwhelms the atmosphere and the models read it as warmth for days and yes sometimes weeks. I missed the extent of the warmth in mid-September but looks like I may hit the cold in mid-October. That is how it goes when forecasting and lucky for me I pay very little attention to models though sometimes I may need to look harder like mid-September and that may have helped but I really did underestimate the drought conditions and that was my error. I would love to see a frost just to kill these bugs plus help with the recent growth with the rains a couple of weeks ago. I was looking at the trees and yes still early for the peak colors but so far not so pretty.

[tron777]

I see the NWS really went colder on their 6-10 day forecast. These tropical systems and especially ones this big make models look foolish this time of year when it comes to temps. So much warmth overwhelms the atmosphere and the models read it as warmth for days and yes sometimes weeks. I missed the extent of the warmth in mid-September but looks like I may hit the cold in mid-October. That is how it goes when forecasting and lucky for me I pay very little attention to models though sometimes I may need to look harder like mid-September and that may have helped but I really did underestimate the drought conditions and that was my error. I would love to see a frost just to kill these bugs plus help with the recent growth with the rains a couple of weeks ago. I was looking at the trees and yes still early for the peak colors but so far not so pretty.

Props to you on this one Tim! Great job! I had to adjust as you saw in my morning post. You've had it nailed all along. Now, we wait and hopefully see it come to fruition!

[tpweather]

Les we will see and as always don't count those chickens before they hatch. It has been almost wall to wall warmth across much of North America for the past 6 weeks and even Alaska has been milder than normal. The one place I saw was northeast Canada and if there was a piece of energy to bring it southward then we had a chance of getting some decent cold for a few days. I would love to see a few days in the 50's but of course we will warm up since its only mid-October. Heading to my son's house in about 2 weeks and I am hoping for some days in the 40's while I rake leaves lol. I love fall and the fire pits and of course a nice bowl of chili with a few beers. Do I know how to live or what.

[tpweather]

Les are you off the next few days. I thought you mentioned that and Wednesday and Thursday would be great days to follow Milton.

[tron777]

Les we will see and as always don't count those chickens before they hatch. It has been almost wall to wall warmth across much of North America for the past 6 weeks and even Alaska has been milder than normal. The one place I saw was northeast Canada and if there was a piece of energy to bring it southward then we had a chance of getting some decent cold for a few days. I would love to see a few days in the 50's but of course we will warm up since its only mid-October. Heading to my son's house in about 2 weeks and I am hoping for some days in the 40's while I rake leaves lol. I love fall and the fire pits and of course a nice bowl of chili with a few beers. Do I know how to live or what.

I had chili on Monday when we were stuck in the 60s! I couldn't wait!

[Bgoney]

Not much to say except Rocktober rolls on and on and…. Beautiful days and beautiful nights as far as the eye can see and’s that for a good chunk of the lower 48 as all eyes turn to Florida

[tpweather]

The broken weather continue until late Sunday when the strongest cold front of the fall season arrives. Maybe we get a shower but nothing widespread. Enjoy the 70's over the next 5 days as we should not get above 60 for 2-3 days and the chances of frost continue to go up the closer we get to mid-month. Again many things involved to form frost and again I have seen temps in the 27-29 range and no frost formed. I do expect widespread 30's but if an upper low is nearby that can keep the winds up a tad higher and also cloud cover. Yes we will rebound to more normal conditions and getting back to the 70's seems likely but the 80's are gone for sure and not even sure this weekend if we make it that high.

We still need rain and at least for the next 5-7 days not looking good. Will this change later in the fall and winter and I do believe that is the case and will go into that more once we start talking about the upcoming winter.

[tpweather]

Something wrong with the censor at CVG. From 6am to 7am reading the temp rose 7 degrees . I checked other places in the Ohio Valley and they went down a degree or two like you expect before sunrise

[Bgoney]

Something wrong with the censor at CVG. From 6am to 7am reading the temp rose 7 degrees . I checked other places in the Ohio Valley and they went down a degree or two like you expect before sunrise

Here’s cvgs recorded temp times . I think somebody walked by the sensor who had a big bowl of baked beans last night

IMG_2422.jpeg

[tron777]

45 officially at CVG this morning if that is the correct number of course. 43 here.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and another perfect day. Okay we get the tropics out of the way by the weekend and I do believe we are going to see a pattern change across North America. Sometimes these tropical systems can just put the brakes on the pattern and this fall has been one for the books. Does that mean we get stormy and cold and no but what happens is the weather across North America becomes busy and yes sometimes it may be out west and sometimes in the east but the pattern is changing and the country really needs to see this change.

I read somewhere that so far this October the PV is the weakest its been in October since 1982. Again does it stay that way often during the late fall and winter and I have no ideal but no doubt something to look at over the next few months.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 75, DAY 72 and CMH 69 today.

[tron777]

74 here today, Since I'm off work for the rest of the week, Mom and I went grocery shopping then to the casino for a while. I won $200 so of course I bought Moms lunch. How bout those Tigers, eh?

Back to weather and for us locally, I don't really have much else to say. Cool nights and warm afternoons thru the weekend then we actually go below avg for a bit early next week with some frost certainly possible.

[MVWxObserver]

My mother Joyce will be having surgery this morning at 10:45 at Cincy Eye Institute (CEI) in Middletown to correct a strange issue with her left eye re her lower eyelid lashes which are rubbing against her eyeball. She will be numbed up and sedated but will be awake during the procedure and so that makes her somewhat nervous. Dad is with her so please keep them in your prayers.

Currently 41 here in G'ville and progged for around 69 today.

[tpweather]

My mother Joyce will be having surgery this morning at 10:45 at Cincy Eye Institute (CEI) in Middletown to correct a strange issue with her left eye re her lower eyelid lashes which are rubbing against her eyeball. She will be numbed up and sedated but will be awake during the procedure and so that makes her somewhat nervous. Dad is with her so please keep them in your prayers.

Currently 41 here in G'ville and progged for around 69 today.

Eric, hope all goes well with your mother. My daughter since she was 8 has here eyelashes that grow backwards into her eyeballs. Been to many eye doctors and nothing they can do. She uses about 200 small eye drops a day as well. Nothing hurts like an eyelash in your eye but a constant feeling like that sounds horrible.

[MVWxObserver]

My mother Joyce will be having surgery this morning at 10:45 at Cincy Eye Institute (CEI) in Middletown to correct a strange issue with her left eye re her lower eyelid lashes which are rubbing against her eyeball. She will be numbed up and sedated but will be awake during the procedure and so that makes her somewhat nervous. Dad is with her so please keep them in your prayers.

Currently 41 here in G'ville and progged for around 69 today.

Eric, hope all goes well with your mother. My daughter since she was 8 has here eyelashes that grow backwards into her eyeballs. Been to many eye doctors and nothing they can do. She uses about 200 small eye drops a day as well. Nothing hurts like an eyelash in your eye but a constant feeling like that sounds horrible.

Thank you Tim. So sorry to hear that your daughter has been contending with that issue, too, and wow since her early childhood and in both eyes. So has she been to CEI in Blue Ash e.g.? Prayers with her, too, bro.

[tpweather]

My mother Joyce will be having surgery this morning at 10:45 at Cincy Eye Institute (CEI) in Middletown to correct a strange issue with her left eye re her lower eyelid lashes which are rubbing against her eyeball. She will be numbed up and sedated but will be awake during the procedure and so that makes her somewhat nervous. Dad is with her so please keep them in your prayers.

Currently 41 here in G'ville and progged for around 69 today.

Eric, hope all goes well with your mother. My daughter since she was 8 has here eyelashes that grow backwards into her eyeballs. Been to many eye doctors and nothing they can do. She uses about 200 small eye drops a day as well. Nothing hurts like an eyelash in your eye but a constant feeling like that sounds horrible.

Thank you Tim. So sorry to hear that your daughter has been contending with that issue, too, and wow since her early childhood and in both eyes. So has she been to CEI in Blue Ash e.g.? Prayers with her, too, bro.

Hey Eric, yes she been to so many specialists and used so many different drugs including steroids which you can only use for a short period of time. Unlucky for her she gets my dna lol. She is so sweet and lives a full life and of course I would love to take the pain away from her if I was able. I understand why your mom would be nervous and the good thing is she has a wonderful family for support which is the most important thing.

[tron777]

Good morning all, and yes, I have been thru many many eye surgeries too in the past as I have said on the board here from time to time! Prayers definitely from me to you and yours Eric!

51 at CVG this morning, 49 here. I don't have much to say locally about our weather that has not already been said. Nothing but mostly sunny skies in our future with cool nights and pleasant afternoons. I still am going with 80 this weekend with Saturday having the best chance to hit that mark. The cold front is still expected to hit on Sunday with only a slim shot at a shower late in the day.

We will drop towards 60 on Monday for the high and stay in the 50s and Tues and Wed before we rebound. Expecting upper 30s Tues morning at CVG and mid 30s on Wed morning. Outlying areas of course will be colder. For CVG Land, Wed morning looks to be our best chance for frost at this time.

Looking ahead... we will moderate for the second half of next week once again. A front tries to approach around the 21st or so, but we may see another tropical system in the Gulf by that time so the timing of the front, any moisture etc will be dictated by the tropics. At this time, I don't see a major hurricane whacking someone again, but it is far out in time so we will of course be keeping an eye on it nonetheless. The tropics aren't quite done yet IMO and we need to keep an eye on the tropics for a few more weeks.

The bottom line for the OV is dry and boring with the drought not going away anytime soon.

[MVWxObserver]

Good morning all, and yes, I have been thru many many eye surgeries too in the past as I have said on the board here from time to time! Prayers definitely from me to you and yours Eric!

51 at CVG this morning, 49 here. I don't have much to say locally about our weather that has not already been said. Nothing but mostly sunny skies in our future with cool nights and pleasant afternoons. I still am going with 80 this weekend with Saturday having the best chance to hit that mark. The cold front is still expected to hit on Sunday with only a slim shot at a shower late in the day.

We will drop towards 60 on Monday for the high and stay in the 50s and Tues and Wed before we rebound. Expecting upper 30s Tues morning at CVG and mid 30s on Wed morning. Outlying areas of course will be colder. For CVG Land, Wed morning looks to be our best chance for frost at this time.

Looking ahead... we will moderate for the second half of next week once again. A front tries to approach around the 21st or so, but we may see another tropical system in the Gulf by that time so the timing of the front, any moisture etc will be dictated by the tropics. At this time, I don't see a major hurricane whacking someone again, but it is far out in time so we will of course be keeping an eye on it nonetheless. The tropics aren't quite done yet IMO and we need to keep an eye on the tropics for a few more weeks.

The bottom line for the OV is dry and boring with the drought not going away anytime soon.

Thank you Les!

They're on their way home so will give an update on Mom soon.

[tron777]

Upper 60s, maybe 70 across the area this afternoon. Low to mid 70s looks good for most folks. Picture perfect weather outside! Got the shutter fixed today so hopefully that'll hold for a while.

Not a lot of change from the 12Z GFS in the short ad medium range. Around the 20-22nd time frame, we are watching a cold front and the tropics in the Gulf to see if there is any interaction between the two as far as rain, timing, etc goes. Besides the temp drop and frost chances for early next week, that's really about it for now.

[tron777]

71 here and at CVG today.

[MVWxObserver]

Mom's surgery was successful PTL and for today through tomorrow during the day hours she has to apply something cold against her eye to help swelling go down e.g. Dad and I are happy to be her "nurses". She also has some drops and ointment and also Tylenol for pain control.

Currently 64 here in G'ville and progged for around 40 on Fri morning.