Rocktober 2024 Weather Discussion

[Jacob755]

I’m back!! It’s been about. I don’t know how long since I’m last made a post in here. How’s everyone doing this Friday afternoon?

[MVWxObserver]

I’m back!! It’s been about. I don’t know how long since I’m last made a post in here. How’s everyone doing this Friday afternoon?

Hey Jacob, great to see you bro! Doing fine here in Greenville.

[MVWxObserver]

Yesterday CVG reached 77 and both DAY / CMH 78.

Today CVG got to 81 and both DAY / CMH 82.

[Bgoney]

With widespread beautiful weather, Most exciting thing weather wise for the lower (except Florida)48 for the next week is space weather. Northern lights will be putting on a show for a few days

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[tron777]

I’m back!! It’s been about. I don’t know how long since I’m last made a post in here. How’s everyone doing this Friday afternoon?

Glad to see you back, Jacob!

[tron777]

Good morning folks! Three things to talk about. Summer this weekend with a cold front on Sunday is the first thing. Look for that small rain chance in the afternoon with gusty winds. Then, we cool down into the 60s for highs maybe 70 with 40s for lows next week. Finally, some normal October temps! The last thing are the tropics. The Gulf wave is back and we may see a weak TS in the days to come. That one if it develops, should impact FL and not come northward IMO.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and nice forecast Les. The tropical system will stay well south because of the trough coming into the eastern USA. Saying that you may have some flooding in Florida with several days of rain. My daughter leaves on a cruise out of Miami on Sunday and hopefully she will be far enough south to miss any tropical system. No changes next week and really a beautiful week with temps rising and dropping between 25-30 degrees each day and night. Then do we see a stronger shot of cooler air and models are still going back and forth and that again happens with a tropical system that is still close enough to bother models. Even next week say Tuesday or Wednesday morning there may be a little frost in the outlying areas but nothing widespread. I do believe the week of the 14th chances go up for frost and again maybe not at CVG but I do expect more widespread than this week. If that occurs then we are about a week earlier than normal.

[tron777]

Good Morning and nice forecast Les. The tropical system will stay well south because of the trough coming into the eastern USA. Saying that you may have some flooding in Florida with several days of rain. My daughter leaves on a cruise out of Miami on Sunday and hopefully she will be far enough south to miss any tropical system. No changes next week and really a beautiful week with temps rising and dropping between 25-30 degrees each day and night. Then do we see a stronger shot of cooler air and models are still going back and forth and that again happens with a tropical system that is still close enough to bother models. Even next week say Tuesday or Wednesday morning there may be a little frost in the outlying areas but nothing widespread. I do believe the week of the 14th chances go up for frost and again maybe not at CVG but I do expect more widespread than this week. If that occurs then we are about a week earlier than normal.

Good morning Tim, and thanks! I actually may need to revise my post in our tropical thread. I was originally thinking a weak TS but the GFS and Euro develop this thing into a hurricane and slam it into Tampa middle of next week.

As far as cold air is concerned, if we see it around mid month, it'll be a quick shot in and out then we warm right back up again. Ensembles show the GOA / Bering Sea trough staying put until we may start to see some weak ridging in that area, as the trough moves into the Pacific NW and Western Canada. We get ridging in the Central and Eastern US along with a positive NAO as the blocking we have been seeing near Greenland goes bye bye. Not a cool pattern showing up in the extended range at all right now. I am sticking with avg to above avg in temps until the last week or so of the month. We'll see what happens. We are on the same page Tim until mid month. That is when we differ, which is fine since we rarely do so anyway.

The MJO is currently in weak Phase 2, but it will remain on the weak side and go thru Phases 3, 4, 5, and 6. In Phases 4-6 (Maritime Continent), we typically see warmer then normal conditions here. While the MJO isn't strong necessarily, it isn't helping us turn colder either.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and I see yesterday we got to 81 and today looks like 77-81. Difference is yesterday a west wind over drier ground and today a east wind over some recent wet grounds. Going 78 for high but again will use the 77-81 range.Sunday a stronger wind out of the south/southwest should see the last 80 degree until next April. I can see and 83 or 84 but will got with the range 80-84 just because may have an increase in clouds.

[tron777]

12Z GFS continues to show an active Gulf for the tropics, otherwise dry as a bone for us outside of 1 or 2 small rain chances. The drought will linger on for quite sometime.

[tron777]

80 as of 4pm at CVG 81 here. Low 80s will do it so the mid 80s are a lock tomorrow ahead of the front and a stiff S wind.

[Bgoney]

EU ensembles long range never changes

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[tron777]

EU ensembles long range never changes



IMG_2396.jpeg

Nope. When you're in a drought, forecasting tends to get pretty easy overall.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 81 and both DAY / CMH 79 today.

[dce]

All of a sudden the West Coast of Florida is now looking at a major hurricane the middle of next week. Right now the target zone is just north of Tampa. I pray today's models are incorrect, but unfortunately they may be on to something, yet, once again.

[MVWxObserver]

All of a sudden the West Coast of Florida is now looking at a major hurricane the middle of next week. Right now the target zone is just north of Tampa. I pray today's models are incorrect, but unfortunately they may be on to something, yet, once again.

Same here bro. Dear God, Please keep Milton from reaching hurricane status.

And FL, GA, NC, SC, TN, VA have barely begun to pick up the pieces and the death toll now is over a staggering 230 from Helene!

My folks and I have some friends from our Hamilton, OH days who reside in Tampa.

[tron777]

Good morning all! I should have done this with Helene, but I have a special thread to track TS Milton in our tropical sub form. Direct Link for those interested in either discussing it, or keeping an eye on it if you have friends or family in the Tampa / Ft. Myers areas, The link is below:

viewtopic.php?t=332

Another side note... the GFS is predicting another big cane to impact FL again about a week after Milton does! The tropics aren't going away just yet!

Alright... back to our local weather now and we will see winds picking up this afternoon along with a boost in temps into the mid 80s ahead of our cold front that will bring us a small rain chance (best chance eastern counties) and October like temps next week. Highs next week will be in the 60s and 70s with lows in the 40s and 50s. No rain is expected at all next week until perhaps late next weekend with our next frontal system moving in. Boring for us, so that gives us time to focus on the tropics.

[tron777]

I'd also like to wish one of our loyal forum members mikeyp a very Happy Birthday today! Hope you enjoy your day Bro!

[Bgoney]

Who-Dey! . Yep , unfortunately all eyes turn to Florida mid week. Our weather stays tranquil for the week other than our eastern counties with a chance of late day showers today. Still don’t see cold enough temps for frost in our area through next weekend. Coldest air will get dammed up in the Appalachian hills and valleys to our east.

[tron777]

Who-Dey! . Yep , unfortunately all eyes turn to Florida mid week. Our weather stays tranquil for the week other than our eastern counties with a chance of late day showers today. Still don’t see cold enough temps for frost in our area through next weekend. Coldest air will get dammed up in the Appalachian hills and valleys to our east.

We're on the same page! Once the tropics settle down then we'll get cold. I still am going with my call of late October, say the last 7-10 days of the month.

[tpweather]

I'd also like to wish one of our loyal forum members mikeyp a very Happy Birthday today! Hope you enjoy your day Bro!

Happy Birthday!!!! Time for you to start posting more lol

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a tad warmer this morning and the last day of 80 I am hoping is the case. I agree no widespread frost this week but again Tuesday and Wednesday morning some outlying areas could easily get a touch of frost and this happens every fall where these areas can be 5 to sometimes 10 degrees colder in the valleys.

I guess at halftime the tropics went in and regrouped and came out firing. Still many were fish storms but the ones that have or will hit the USA meant business.

So during the week expect big range of temps between day and night with the low humidity. Early in the week expect temps near 70 and rising to maybe the upper 70's by the end of the week. Low temps for the most part will be in the 40-45 range at CVG but like I mentioned before some colder valleys can easily get into the mid 30's

Then do we see another tropical system and again lets get past Milton because the models will try and reorganize.

[tron777]

We're on the same page with the temp forecast next week Tim! Good call! Like I said to Bgoney, until we see the tropics settle down, I am not expecting any colder shots in here that would cause an area wide frost. We'll see though in the last 7-10 days of the month how things look. The tropics aren't the only reason though. The 500 MB pattern over North America isn't good either. Canada just had its warmest Sept on record so we don't have any true cold air nearby at this time. Ensembles are still showing a lot of ridging over the CONUS. Dry dry dry with normal temps next week, going to above normal after that along with the drought re-intensifying again for us locally is the name of the game unfortunately.

[tpweather]

Les we agree for the most part though I do expect a cold shot during the week of the 14th and of course there is always a but and that is will the tropics form another system that could hit the mainland USA. Once we start seeing the tropical moisture stay south of Cuba then that gives a sign that some cold air will start to move into the USA. You are correct about Canada and it has been warm and so has Alaska. Really been widespread warmth across North America and what I have been touting really is cold coming in from Northeast Canada as that area towards Greenland does have some decent cold to grab. Again still need the ridge this week to head our way but also stop and head west once again and build into western Canada and eastern Alaska. That is still on the table but of course it will worry me more if by the end of the week I am not seeing enough movement.

Going to enjoy the nice weather though and yes warm but low humidity and even the warmest part of the day it feels decent

[tron777]

Les we agree for the most part though I do expect a cold shot during the week of the 14th and of course there is always a but and that is will the tropics form another system that could hit the mainland USA. Once we start seeing the tropical moisture stay south of Cuba then that gives a sign that some cold air will start to move into the USA. You are correct about Canada and it has been warm and so has Alaska. Really been widespread warmth across North America and what I have been touting really is cold coming in from Northeast Canada as that area towards Greenland does have some decent cold to grab. Again still need the ridge this week to head our way but also stop and head west once again and build into western Canada and eastern Alaska. That is still on the table but of course it will worry me more if by the end of the week I am not seeing enough movement.

Going to enjoy the nice weather though and yes warm but low humidity and even the warmest part of the day it feels decent

Yep... it's a good pattern to get outdoor projects done before winter. Hopefully folks are taking advantage of that who need too. For the weather geek, it's a terrible pattern because it's booorrriiinnnnggggg!