Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion 2024

[tron777]

That wave is now down to a 20% chance The wave behind it has a 40% chance.

[tron777]

There's the disturbance down in the Caribbean that has an 80-% chance in the next 5 days. This is the wave that has the potential to become a major hurricane in the Gulf later next week.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[tron777]

We have a high chance now on the Caribbean wave and it looks like the wave coming off of Africa may develop into something also, with a 70% chance there in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

We have PTC 9 now - Soon to be Helene in the Gulf:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Mon Sep 23 2024

...DISTURBANCE FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF MEXICO AND CUBA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.6N 82.0W
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM SSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[tron777]

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT EN ROUTE TO THE SYSTEM...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.6N 82.8W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

The Cape Verde system is now up to 80% in the next 5 days.

[MVWxObserver]

TD9 sure is a slow crawler and the slower a system at times, the more 'dangerous' down the road. Future HeLLene!

[tron777]

TD9 sure is a slow crawler and the slower a system at times, the more 'dangerous' down the road. Future HeLLene!

It will have water temps in the 85 to 90 degree range to work with once it gets further north into the Gulf. I am still expecting soon to be Helene to be a Cat 3 or major hurricane at landfall on Thurs in the FL Big Bend area.

[tpweather]

TD9 sure is a slow crawler and the slower a system at times, the more 'dangerous' down the road. Future HeLLene!

It will have water temps in the 85 to 90 degree range to work with once it gets further north into the Gulf. I am still expecting soon to be Helene to be a Cat 3 or major hurricane at landfall on Thurs in the FL Big Bend area.

I see no problems in this getting to at least a CAT 2 and most likely CAT 3. Once it gets over land the upper low in the central plains will pull this storm northward quickly so yes plenty of heavy rain in Florida panhandle but it should be moving quickly so huge totals should not occur. Yes still can produce rainfall in that area in the 5-10 inch range but nothing like you can see when these systems stall and that is when you talk about feet of rainfall

[tron777]

TD9 sure is a slow crawler and the slower a system at times, the more 'dangerous' down the road. Future HeLLene!

It will have water temps in the 85 to 90 degree range to work with once it gets further north into the Gulf. I am still expecting soon to be Helene to be a Cat 3 or major hurricane at landfall on Thurs in the FL Big Bend area.

I see no problems in this getting to at least a CAT 2 and most likely CAT 3. Once it gets over land the upper low in the central plains will pull this storm northward quickly so yes plenty of heavy rain in Florida panhandle but it should be moving quickly so huge totals should not occur. Yes still can produce rainfall in that area in the 5-10 inch range but nothing like you can see when these systems stall and that is when you talk about feet of rainfall

I'm really curious to see how that interaction between the center of whatever is left of Helene, interacts with the upper low. That will determine how much rain we get and how long the rain chances will last. Before we get there though I agree with your post Tim with regards to strength and rainfall amounts down to the south. Good post and you're on top of your game today!

[tpweather]

TD9 sure is a slow crawler and the slower a system at times, the more 'dangerous' down the road. Future HeLLene!

It will have water temps in the 85 to 90 degree range to work with once it gets further north into the Gulf. I am still expecting soon to be Helene to be a Cat 3 or major hurricane at landfall on Thurs in the FL Big Bend area.

I see no problems in this getting to at least a CAT 2 and most likely CAT 3. Once it gets over land the upper low in the central plains will pull this storm northward quickly so yes plenty of heavy rain in Florida panhandle but it should be moving quickly so huge totals should not occur. Yes still can produce rainfall in that area in the 5-10 inch range but nothing like you can see when these systems stall and that is when you talk about feet of rainfall

I'm really curious to see how that interaction between the center of whatever is left of Helene, interacts with the upper low. That will determine how much rain we get and how long the rain chances will last. Before we get there though I agree with your post Tim with regards to strength and rainfall amounts down to the south. Good post and you're on top of your game today!

I agree Les and the interaction should be fun to watch. Btw another 0.62 inches this morning and I have no doubt been doing well the past few days and total since Saturday of 1.05 though folks just to the north of me and saying no more than 2 miles did not receive the rain on Saturday so totals lower. Just hoping everyone is getting in on the rain which is more important. Nice to have some rain before Friday and if for some reason we get into some heavier rain then the runoff will not be quite as bad though the ground is pretty darn hard and it will take several rounds to really get the ground softer. Hopefully this rain will also help the colors of leaves in the next few weeks as well.

[tron777]

TD9 sure is a slow crawler and the slower a system at times, the more 'dangerous' down the road. Future HeLLene!

It will have water temps in the 85 to 90 degree range to work with once it gets further north into the Gulf. I am still expecting soon to be Helene to be a Cat 3 or major hurricane at landfall on Thurs in the FL Big Bend area.

I see no problems in this getting to at least a CAT 2 and most likely CAT 3. Once it gets over land the upper low in the central plains will pull this storm northward quickly so yes plenty of heavy rain in Florida panhandle but it should be moving quickly so huge totals should not occur. Yes still can produce rainfall in that area in the 5-10 inch range but nothing like you can see when these systems stall and that is when you talk about feet of rainfall

I'm really curious to see how that interaction between the center of whatever is left of Helene, interacts with the upper low. That will determine how much rain we get and how long the rain chances will last. Before we get there though I agree with your post Tim with regards to strength and rainfall amounts down to the south. Good post and you're on top of your game today!

I agree Les and the interaction should be fun to watch. Btw another 0.62 inches this morning and I have no doubt been doing well the past few days and total since Saturday of 1.05 though folks just to the north of me and saying no more than 2 miles did not receive the rain on Saturday so totals lower. Just hoping everyone is getting in on the rain which is more important. Nice to have some rain before Friday and if for some reason we get into some heavier rain then the runoff will not be quite as bad though the ground is pretty darn hard and it will take several rounds to really get the ground softer. Hopefully this rain will also help the colors of leaves in the next few weeks as well.

Over a 1/2" now in my hood. We'll take it!

8am advisory:

Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
800 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA GULF COAST...
...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE DISTURBANCE...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.2N 83.5W
ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM W OF GRAND CAYMAN
ABOUT 205 MI...335 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

[tron777]

We now have TS Helene! See the updated advisory and max intensity forecast below as we begin to track this system:

Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1100 AM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...TROPICAL STORM HELENE FORMS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN
SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.5N 84.3W
ABOUT 180 MI...295 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 170 MI...275 KM SSE OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 19.5N 84.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 25/0000Z 20.3N 85.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 25/1200Z 21.5N 86.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
36H 26/0000Z 23.2N 86.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 26/1200Z 25.9N 85.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
60H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
72H 27/1200Z 33.9N 83.9W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
96H 28/1200Z 39.7N 86.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 29/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 5A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
200 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...HELENE ORGANIZING OVER THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...
...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS
OF THE FLORIDA GULF COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 84.5W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
500 PM EDT Tue Sep 24 2024

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR THE GULF COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...HELENE'S LARGE SIZE WILL LIKELY CAUSE AN EXTENSIVE AREA TO BE
AFFECTED BY THE STORM'S HAZARDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 84.7W
ABOUT 155 MI...245 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 150 MI...245 KM S OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
100 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...CENTER OF HELENE APPROACHING THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 100 AM CDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.4N 85.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM E OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.27 INCHES

Helene may brush the Yuc. Penn so if that's the case, it could delay her from strengthening further just a tad. Something to watch to see if the center goes thru the channel or not.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Helene Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
400 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE STRENGTHENING AS THE CENTER APPROACHES THE NORTHEASTERN
COAST OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA...
...NEW TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR PORTIONS OF THE
UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.7N 86.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM SW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...985 MB...29.09 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Helene Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
700 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE JUST OFFSHORE THE NORTHEASTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA, CLOSE TO HURRICANE STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.1N 86.2W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM ENE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM WSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES

[tron777]

Helene is now a Cat 1 hurricane as of 11am. The max intensity forecast from the NHC also keeps going up.

Hurricane Helene Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092024
1000 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024

...HELENE BECOMES A HURRICANE...
...EXPECTED TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS,
AND FLOODING RAINS TO A LARGE PORTION OF FLORIDA AND THE
SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.6N 86.3W
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM NNE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
ABOUT 500 MI...810 KM SSW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...80 MPH...130 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...979 MB...28.91 INCHES


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 25/1500Z 21.6N 86.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 26/0000Z 23.0N 86.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
24H 26/1200Z 25.7N 85.7W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 27/0000Z 29.7N 84.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 27/1200Z 34.3N 85.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
60H 28/0000Z 36.6N 86.9W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
72H 28/1200Z 36.9N 87.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
96H 29/1200Z 36.6N 87.9W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 30/1200Z...DISSIPATED

[tpweather]

This is not related to Helene but more about the Atlantic Hurricane Season. Yes the named storms have been down compared what many folks were predicting. What has happened in the central Atlantic is many systems that are not named have been showing up there. What this has done in looking back this season is strengthen the High Pressure off the east coast and one reason we stayed very warm for so long in September. So sometimes you must dig deeper into the Hurricane season . Saying that the huge ridge in southern Canada this September was large and strong and no doubt that was even more of a problem for us concerning heat but that along with the road block to the east and everything sort of stopped. Now we are unclogging the garbage disposal and things are starting to explode.

[tron777]

Waiting on the 5pm advisory from the NHC, but the visible shows Helene looking much more organized now. IMO this thing will explode tonight and tomorrow. Thinking a Cat 3... perhaps even a 4 is possible at landfall.

Helene.jpg

[tron777]

Helene has 85 mph winds now as of 5pm. Max intensity forecast now up to 130 mph.

[MVWxObserver]

Waiting on the 5pm advisory from the NHC, but the visible shows Helene looking much more organized now. IMO this thing will explode tonight and tomorrow. Thinking a Cat 3... perhaps even a 4 is possible at landfall.


Helene.jpg

If so Bro are you going to make a separate topic discussion for Helene?

[MVWxObserver]

1730 UNK 1 NE Haverhill Palm Beach FL 2670 8011 Powerlines down across Military and Vilma Roads. (MFL)

2235 3 W Cool Spring Colquitt GA 3123 8365 Georgia Highway Patrol reported a brief touchdown. No damage reported at this time. (TAE)

1041 64 1 NW Dania Beach Broward FL 2607 8015 ASOS station KFLL Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood Intl Airport. (MFL)

[MVWxObserver]

There's also now TS Isaac which will probably be a fish storm.

[tron777]

Waiting on the 5pm advisory from the NHC, but the visible shows Helene looking much more organized now. IMO this thing will explode tonight and tomorrow. Thinking a Cat 3... perhaps even a 4 is possible at landfall.


Helene.jpg

If so Bro are you going to make a separate topic discussion for Helene?

I probably should have but since we are already talking about it here and in our OV thread since we'll be impacted by it, I guess we'll just leave it as is.