September 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and plenty to talk about on the first full day of autumn. Some things we see quite often and some not so much. First a decent system later tonight and Tuesday which hopefully brings in a decent amount of rainfall so sticking to my original forecast of .75-1.25. Then the system and cold front just sort of hangs around for a few days. Then we see a tropical system that looks to be a nice system and yes we do see these this time of year. What we normally don't see this time of year is really a two way stop sign once it gets into the USA. How far north has always been the issue and the reason is the ridging to the north of us is about as strong as you will see this time of year. Storms will lose that fight. The other part has been the Atlantic Ocean and for a several days nothing is moving there as well and another reason we have had the several days of 90's which I missed out and thought we would be able to move that roadblock out east. The ridge north not moving and not seeing any option on that front. The road block in the Atlantic is a different story and does this break down enough to have the tropical system that probably comes into the panhandle of Florida head east of the mountains and out to sea or will that road block be just enough that sends this system west of the mountains and we get a nice dose of rainfall. At this point I believe its a 50/50 shot either way. Would love to see the system head this way and that would help a lot with the drought conditions. Will not end the drought but with a decent shot later today and Tuesday followed by another one on Friday would no doubt help. Hope to post more in the next few days but at a wedding a few weeks ago and several folks got covid and this past Saturday evening it must be my turn. Can't say for sure its covid but no fun either way and hopefully this is a fast moving illness.

[tron777]

I hope you feel better soon Tim whatever it is!

The blocking pattern is sure going to be tough to break! NAO index is now below -2.5 STD so the blocking is at a record level for September. It will continue falling, meaning the block will be getting stronger this week before maxing out and eventually rising (-NAO) so the question then becomes as you said.... how far north can Helene come before putting on the brakes? This will determine how much rain we get by the end of this week. 12Z GFS was not an encouraging sign but a solution that we cannot ignore due to the strong -NAO block.

[tron777]

I'd love to see the 0Z Euro AI solution be correct as it has Helene's low center stalling right over us for several days. 12Z GFS gets the low into the TN Valley before retrograding westward and the 12z Canadian is a good compromise between the GFS and Euro AI solutions. We'll have to wait and see once we get closer.

[Bgoney]

Ohio’s and West Virginia’s extreme drought has far reaching impacts




The Mississippi River is experiencing low water levels this fall, driving up grain transportation prices for farmers in the Midwest.

It's the third year in a row that drought has impacted the river.

The Mississippi is a key transportation artery for U.S. farmers — 60% of all grain exported from the U.S. is shipped on the river.

“I like to frame it as our third coast,” said Jim Tarmann, managing director of the Illinois Corn Growers Association. “It is vital for us in competing globally.”

When water levels are low, barges can’t carry as much grain, because they could run aground in the shallower water. There are also navigation issues as the lower water levels lead to a more narrow channel.

Right now, low water levels are causing reduced tow sizes and reduced tons of goods per barge, plus a slow down of up to two days, according to the American Commercial Barge Line.

That means shipping costs go up. The U.S. Department of Agriculture said in a recent report that the cost of shipping corn and soybeans from the Mississippi through the Gulf of Mexico has increased by more than a third compared to last year.

Farmers ultimately pay the price, Tarmann said.

“At the end of the day that all comes back and is pretty much laid at the producer's feet,” Tarmann said. “It's going to cost him.”

Dry conditions throughout the Mississippi River Basin are driving the low river levels. Parts of the Ohio River Basin are experiencing their worst drought on record, said Anna Wolverton, a meteorologist for the Army Corps of Engineers Mississippi Valley Division.

While major commodity crop exports such as corn and soybeans remain high, U.S. imports far outpaced exports in 2023.
Most of the water in the lower Mississippi comes from the Ohio, so that is driving the low water levels,

[tron777]

81 so far at CVG today, 82 here. Light rain is trying to push into the area. Probably like yesterday slim pickens.

EDIT: 82 officially at CVG per the 5pm climate report.

[tron777]

Seeing some light rain now here, kind of like what we saw yesterday. Better then a zero® I guess.

[tron777]

Moderate rain now for the last 5 mins! Heaviest rain I have seen in a month lol

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 82, DAY 73 and CMH 79 today.

[Bgoney]

Trace here. A few rumblings of thunder well off to my south

[tron777]

In that 0.05 to 0.10" range around this area.

[airwolf76]

I took a walk yesterday morning. a public park and then I would wander off into the woods a little bit. I was surprised how bone dry everything is and also the leaves are turning and falling prematurely . we are in worse shape then I had though.

[tron777]

Good morning! Thunder out there this morning as a nice batch of rain moves into the area. This looks to be a good soaker for many this morning. It will make for a slow morning drive though but we need the rain for sure. This rain will also act to cut down on the severe threat this afternoon.

Overnight models all looked much better at bringing some of soon to be Helene's moisture our way for Friday on into this weekend.

[tron777]

We're up to 0.25" at CVG right now and 0.27" at the Boone Co mesonet site. Be careful though on the roads this morning folks. Lots of ponding of water and some slick conditions due to the oil that has built up and hasn't rinsed off yet. I already saw one car spin out on NB 71 right by 275 interchange on my way into work. Radar looks good for most of us to get into that 0.25 to 0.50" range this morning.

[Bgoney]

Beautiful gentle rain, keep it coming!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice rain with a few rumbles of thunder. Moving rather quick so should be able to recover today as we should see some afternoon showers and thundershowers. The tropical system is a little slow to develop and that is because of the Hurricane off the western Mexican coast is stronger and the outflow is delaying the development of Helene. Later today Helene should be far enough away and then expect the system to strengthen. Euro and Cmc much more impressive than the GFS in getting some decent rains and again how far north do Helene's rains end up. We no doubt could use a 2 day rainfall out of this tropical system.

[tron777]

0.45" as of 7am at CVG! This is great!

[tron777]

Good Morning and a nice rain with a few rumbles of thunder. Moving rather quick so should be able to recover today as we should see some afternoon showers and thundershowers. The tropical system is a little slow to develop and that is because of the Hurricane off the western Mexican coast is stronger and the outflow is delaying the development of Helene. Later today Helene should be far enough away and then expect the system to strengthen. Euro and Cmc much more impressive than the GFS in getting some decent rains and again how far north do Helene's rains end up. We no doubt could use a 2 day rainfall out of this tropical system.

Excellent post Tim! John turned out to be a 100 mph hurricane before it made landfall which was well above model projections. With all of that rising air over Mexico and the W. Caribbean, you're exactly right. It has caused SW wind shear so that is why PTC 9 has been slow getting its act together.

[MVWxObserver]

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[Bgoney]

.50” at Indian hill. .30” at home

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

0.40" at the Boone Co mesonet site as of 8am. CVG checks in with 0.45". We'll have to wait and see how much CAPE we can get for the afternoon and evening re-development. Visible shows some clearing to the West so we should see a bit of sun this morning before we cloud back up this afternoon. Wind shear will be good for isolated severe storms but the degree of instability is in question thanks to this mornings activity.

[MVWxObserver]

0.40" at the Boone Co mesonet site as of 8am. CVG checks in with 0.45". We'll have to wait and see how much CAPE we can get for the afternoon and evening re-development. Visible shows some clearing to the West so we should see a bit of sun this morning before we cloud back up this afternoon. Wind shear will be good for isolated severe storms but the degree of instability is in question thanks to this mornings activity.

I'm glad my sister Retha from NC arrived yesterday instead of traveling today. My folks and I hadn't visited with her since last Fall when we moved into our catalpa-style house. This week will be our 1 year anniversary of relocation and Retha will turn the BIG 60TH this Sat!

[tron777]

0.52" now at CVG as of 9am.

[Bgoney]

A lot of questions with rains associated with the tropical system late week and qpf totals. Not even a named system yet , where it hits the Florida coast is vital to our amounts . Where the cut-off low is positioned as what’s left of Heline is absorbed into the trough is vital to our amounts. How long it stalls in the region is vital to amounts. Mostly these are all a reflection of what Tim mentioned as to how far north does copious amounts of QPF get .