September 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

The good news is that modeling does slow the front down for early next week so we will have a few days with rain chances instead of a one and done scenario. I still believe the hurricane in the Gulf will be a swing and a miss to the East. I think we get another one in early October after that, where it goes remains to be seen. Bottom line... the tropics are waking up and we do have some rain chances early next week. Otherwise, for temps... we will be going from well above normal to normal for the second half of next week probably going above normal again per those above maps.

[Bgoney]

Ohio state climate office drought update:




Severe to exceptional drought continues to expand across Ohio. Severe drought has expanded into large sections of northwest, north central, and western Ohio, while extreme drought has expanded into most of Champaign, Clinton, Greene, and Union counties as well as sections of neighboring counties. Over 60% of the state is now experiencing severe to exceptional drought. Abnormaly dry to moderate drought conditions have also expanded into remaining sections of Southern and Northeastern Ohio. We continue to see extensive agricultural and hydrological impacts, along with early fall color, dormant and dying lawns, and leaf scorch/drop. Burn bans are in place for 28 Ohio counties, and longer-term impacts such as tree damage and water resource availability should begin to be considered in the areas where extreme to exceptional drought conditions have been in place for multiple weeks. Forecasts indicate some potential for rainfall in the upcoming days, though widespread drought improvement remains unlikely. Below are resources for more information on drought coverage, response plans, and condition reporting:

[tron777]

KY drought info: https://www.drought.gov/states/kentucky

Per the above site, it was the 21st driest August on record for the state since 1895.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and made it back from the golf outing. Very dry in the Brown County, Indiana area but on the golf course they are able to pump water from the different lakes and streams on the course so the fairways were in decent shape. Was sunny and very warm all week. Will look at the upcoming pattern later today but glad to be back home and yes getting closer to the fall season. This year reminds me of 1983 in many ways though that year we had no breaks in the heat like this year. I know that year the cool weather came in the last few days of September but quite hot up until then. I also remember that December that year was cold and snowy.

[MJSun]

The good news is that modeling does slow the front down for early next week so we will have a few days with rain chances instead of a one and done scenario. I still believe the hurricane in the Gulf will be a swing and a miss to the East. I think we get another one in early October after that, where it goes remains to be seen. Bottom line... the tropics are waking up and we do have some rain chances early next week. Otherwise, for temps... we will be going from well above normal to normal for the second half of next week probably going above normal again per those above maps.

I welcome seeing those 70s and rain chances next week. Hopefully, it tamps down the ragweed for my husband and youngest. Also, I'm hoping "above normal" is not these mid to upper 80s again.

[tron777]

Hey Tim! Glad you had a good time golfing. Time to track rain for early next week and the tropics. Would love to see another Dec of 1983 again sometime (coldest Christmas on record). I've been seeing 2007-2008 as an analog for this winter which brought us the March of 2008 storm. Also being seeing 2022-2023 which was a stinker.

Anyway... the drought is the biggest story right now and it's going to be a while before we get out of it I'm afraid.

[tron777]

The good news is that modeling does slow the front down for early next week so we will have a few days with rain chances instead of a one and done scenario. I still believe the hurricane in the Gulf will be a swing and a miss to the East. I think we get another one in early October after that, where it goes remains to be seen. Bottom line... the tropics are waking up and we do have some rain chances early next week. Otherwise, for temps... we will be going from well above normal to normal for the second half of next week probably going above normal again per those above maps.

I welcome seeing those 70s and rain chances next week. Hopefully, it tamps down the ragweed for my husband and youngest. Also, I'm hoping "above normal" is not these mid to upper 80s again.

Hey Mollie! I hear you with regards to allergies. it's been terrible for sure. Unfortunately, I don't think we've seen the last of the 80s, but I am hoping that we're done with the 90s after this weekend. Fingers crossed!

[Bgoney]

Some of the modeled qpf for next week is hopefull. But we’ve seen how bad they ve been with amounts of late in all the drought areas. Even at short range , let alone the 4-5 days to go before the better chances arrive. Hopeful is the best I can do atm.

[Bgoney]

More than half of Ohio’s 88 counties now have a disaster designation



John Patterson, State Executive Director of the USDA’s Ohio Farm Service Agency.

Drought conditions started in Ohio back in mid-June and have intensified all summer and are expected to only get worse in the near future. As a result, farmers across the state are struggling with very poor pasture conditions, finding and affording hay to feed animals, the cost of finding and hauling water, and failing crops. The drought is also leading to increased risk of fires in fields and forests throughout the state.

In response to the drought conditions, USDA has issued four natural disaster designations, which have in total designated 28 counties as primary disaster counties with an additional 17 counties classified as contiguous, covering more than half of Ohio’s 88 counties. These designations allow the USDA Farm Service Agency (FSA) to extend assistance to agricultural producers through a variety of programs. These programs are available to both new and existing users of FSA services.

[tron777]

Up to 78 now at CVG which is 3 degrees ahead of yesterday at this time.

[tron777]

[Bgoney]

All we need is 9-12” of widespread OV rains to end the drought in 2 months
Keep in mind this doesn’t consider rain rates . The ground will need considerable moistening up to except rain at full potential, majority of a heavy rain would runoff. So needed rains would be higher . Good luck getting rains to soak in on any kind of a slope

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[tpweather]

Good late morning or early afternoon. No doubt the period from Sept 11-20 has been somewhat hotter than I expected. I thought we would see a front around the 23rd and one on the 30 or so but we all know tropical activity can throw roadblocks this time of year. Does look like we have some chances of rainfall next week and no doubt cooler air coming in here compared to what we have seen. I can see low-mid 70's for highs towards the middle of next week and really if you get an upper low nearby that has cold air you can see even 60's for highs. So where will the month finish in terms of temps. and I know some folks went higher and some lower including myself but by the time Oct 1 rolls around we may be pretty close to normal. Funny how we see this so often where folks see two different outcomes with the same info and many times it ends up almost right in the middle of both forecasts. We need the rain of course and even getting 1-2 inches next week helps somewhat but going to take quite a bit more to get us back to normal and yes it may not this fall but by next year my guess we once again get our share of rainfall. Just looking over the past decade or so and our normal rainfall has risen and that is because we have had more rain than previous decades so sooner or later we are going to get a year like this that brings the normal's lower. Not fun and especially folks that have weather intensive jobs but I know farmers understand this better than most and yes they adjust.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has the front coming in Monday into Tues then n upper low with another front Wed night into Thurs. That would be a wonderful solution if it were t be correct since rain chances would continue a little longer then I originally thought for next week. Fingers crossed!!! The models are going to struggle due to that hurricane potential down in the Gulf for later next week.

[tron777]

89 now as of 1pm so once we see the 2pm reading, the contest thread will of course, get another update.

[Bgoney]

ILNs latest drought update

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IMG_2280.jpeg

[tron777]

91 now as of 2pm at CVG.

[Bgoney]

SE OH/west Virginia update, similar but even more dire

IMG_2281.jpeg

[tron777]

93 here and at CVG today.

[MVWxObserver]

The good news is that modeling does slow the front down for early next week so we will have a few days with rain chances instead of a one and done scenario. I still believe the hurricane in the Gulf will be a swing and a miss to the East. I think we get another one in early October after that, where it goes remains to be seen. Bottom line... the tropics are waking up and we do have some rain chances early next week. Otherwise, for temps... we will be going from well above normal to normal for the second half of next week probably going above normal again per those above maps.

I welcome seeing those 70s and rain chances next week. Hopefully, it tamps down the ragweed for my husband and youngest. Also, I'm hoping "above normal" is not these mid to upper 80s again.

I can certainly relate, Wxbuddy, as I take a Zyrtec daily to try to combat allergy symptoms but still my sinuses feel it at times. Where my folks and I reside, our neighborhood has an outside Bocce ball court and when my Dad and I play other team pairs, I wear a nose / mouth mask for playing. We have a Bocce ball league going through about the week of Oct. 21st.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY reached 93 and CMH 91 today.

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

2000 UNK Pierceton Kosciusko IN 4120 8571 Powerlines and tree limbs down in Pierceton. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2000 UNK 2 N Warsaw Kosciusko IN 4126 8584 Large tree limbs down on a car. No injuries. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2000 UNK 1 ESE Monoquet Kosciusko IN 4128 8584 Roof damage to a home near Warsaw Municipal Airport. Shingles ripped off and peeled back. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2000 UNK 1 SSE Monoquet Kosciusko IN 4128 8585 Large tree limb downed in near the US 15 and 300 E vicinity. Time estimated from radar. (IWX)

2000 UNK 1 NE Monoquet Kosciusko IN 4130 8585 Levi Lee Road is impassable due to several trees down. (IWX)

2000 UNK Leesburg Kosciusko IN 4133 8585 Trees limbs down near IN-15. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2001 UNK 1 ENE Monoquet Kosciusko IN 4130 8584 Tree down on train tracks at Levi Lee Rd near N Old IN-13. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2002 UNK 2 S Oswego Kosciusko IN 4129 8579 Photos on Facebook show damage to several piers on Chapman Lake. A boat lift was also lifted and damaged. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2002 UNK 1 SSE Oswego Kosciusko IN 4130 8578 Tree branches snapped (estimated 6 to 9 inches in diameter) on the north side of Chapman Lake. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2003 UNK 3 WSW Irish Lake Kosciusko IN 4127 8579 several large tree limbs snapped (estimated about 18 to 24 inches in diameter) on Little Chapman Lake. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2003 UNK Big Barbee Lake Kosciusko IN 4129 8570 Tree down on IN 13 near Big Barbee Lake. Photo on Facebook of large tree limbs down and a report of four flag poles snapped. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2003 UNK 1 S Oswego Kosciusko IN 4130 8578 Roof damage to a home on Chapman Lake. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2004 UNK 1 S Big Barbee Lake Kosciusko IN 4127 8570 Tree down onto powerlines across SR 13 at the intersection with E 200 N. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2005 UNK Big Barbee Lake Kosciusko IN 4128 8570 Large tree limb down (estimated about 18 to 24 inches in diameter) just south of Barbee Lake. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2006 UNK Pierceton Kosciusko IN 4120 8571 Several large tree limbs down (size unknown). Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2006 UNK Ridinger Lake Kosciusko IN 4126 8567 Photo on Facebook showing roof and siding damage to a home on Ridinger Lake. Several large tree limbs down as well. Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2007 UNK Ridinger Lake Kosciusko IN 4126 8567 Large tree limbs down (estimated 12 to 24 inches in diameter). Time estimated via radar. (IWX)

2010 UNK Irish Lake Kosciusko IN 4130 8574 Large tree downed ... north side of Irish Lake. Time estimated from radar. (IWX)

2013 UNK 1 NNW Ridinger Lake Kosciusko IN 4127 8567 Several large tree branches downed in the Jellystone Park area. Time estimated from radar. (IWX)

2037 UNK Columbia City Whitley IN 4116 8549 8 inch diameter tree branch downed at a residence. Time estimated from radar. (IWX)

2037 UNK 1 SW Tri-Lakes Whitley IN 4121 8549 Several large tree limbs down near State Road 109 and E 300 N. Time estimated from radar. (IWX)

2040 UNK 2 S Tri-Lakes Whitley IN 4119 8549 Large trees downed along with some roof and siding damage near Etna Road between State Road 109 and Airport Road. A shed was also destroyed. Time estimated from radar. (IWX)

2047 UNK Coesse Whitley IN 4113 8539 Chicken coop flipped and mangled. Fence destroyed in Coesse. Time estimated on radar. (IWX)

2050 UNK 1 E Dunfee Allen IN 4109 8531 A few large trees downed near Slash Pass Road. Time estimated from radar. (IWX)

2139 UNK Indian Heights Howard IN 4043 8612 Roof damage at an elementary school. Time estimated from radar. (IND)

0123 UNK 3 W Homecroft Marion IN 3966 8618 Large limb down on car. (IND)

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another hot day in store. Looked at the models first this morning and the major 3 do have chances of rainfall Monday and Tuesday. After that all 3 go in a different direction and the main reason is the tropics and how these storms can affect modeling. One more golf outing today and then most likely done until the one last trip to Hilton Head in November. Plan on spending quite a bit of time either tonight or much of Sunday looking over many items. I was going to start looking at the upcoming winter but finally we have some interesting weather next week so my focus will be more on the upcoming week.

[tpweather]

Finally 10 minutes of rainfall. Not much but this tells me we are getting the atmosphere somewhat loaded and hopefully this leads to several days with chances of rainfall.