September 2024 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY BELATED BIG 65TH MATT!!

I'm not that far behind at just 4 more years!

[tron777]

51 officially at CVG this morning Can we rise 39 more degrees to hit 90? We shall see! Currently 62 as of 8am.

[tpweather]

51 officially at CVG this morning Can we rise 39 more degrees to hit 90? We shall see! Currently 62 as of 8am.

Going to be close Les. If we hit 89 this afternoon that would just be a normal day in terms of temps. Even though it feels above normal because of the highs in the afternoon its offset by the lows at night. That was really the main reason I had temps near normal for September

[tron777]

I think temps will avg out above normal for the month. Below normal precip is a given.

[Bgoney]

The big high pressure in central NA that was modeled at the end of August for much of Mid September and beyond is looking good , which is bad news for us

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[tpweather]

The big high pressure in central NA that was modeled at the end of August for much of Mid September and beyond is looking good , which is bad news for us





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No doubt that looks bad for rainfall. Temps a different story and still believe near normal is the way to go though the next 10 days may be above normal that brings us to near normal for the month and then the last ten days at this moment looks near normal or slightly below.

[Mjr]

HAPPY BELATED BIG 65TH MATT!!

I'm not that far behind at just 4 more years!

Yes, 65 plus one day and counting. Thank you Eric
Was sitting on the back porch this morning and thinking about 911.
God Bless The United States of America

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY BELATED BIG 65TH MATT!!

I'm not that far behind at just 4 more years!

Yes, 65 plus one day and counting. Thank you Eric
Was sitting on the back porch this morning and thinking about 911.
God Bless The United States of America

You're welcome, Matt.

Same here bro, 23 yrs since that horrific day.

Our country has, sadly, gotten more dangerous under the current administration.

**Prayers and God Bless**

[tron777]

The big high pressure in central NA that was modeled at the end of August for much of Mid September and beyond is looking good , which is bad news for us

Agreed. This spells below avg precip and above avg temps for Sept as a whole in my opinion. Lock it in!

[tron777]

[tron777]

78 at CVG as of 11am. We are running 3 degrees warmer at this time versus 24 hours ago. 86 was yesterday's high. If we can keep this same pace going, the 89 is a lock for today. I of course have gone with 90.

[tpweather]

The big high pressure in central NA that was modeled at the end of August for much of Mid September and beyond is looking good , which is bad news for us

Agreed. This spells below avg precip and above avg temps for Sept as a whole in my opinion. Lock it in!

Hey Les and we finally disagree on the upcoming pattern. Watched Brian's video and glad he mentioned the possible tropical system off the Carolina coast which I had mentioned earlier this week. How far west can the rain reach and the low must come rather far west because we know those mountains are not easy to cross. One reason I believe we cool down at the end of the month is the trough that is out west and not talking pacific northwest which is common but a deep trough including all of California. That trough will start to lift north and east sometime later next week and this will allow cold fronts to once again start coming out of Canada. I would expect at least one between the 21st and 30th of the month and yes maybe a second cold front. I believe models will catch on to this probably over the weekend or early next week. We do agree on the middle 10 days of the month and a warmer period that should bring us near normal by then but then I believe the last 10 days will finally end up near normal or slightly below normal.

[tron777]

The big high pressure in central NA that was modeled at the end of August for much of Mid September and beyond is looking good , which is bad news for us

Agreed. This spells below avg precip and above avg temps for Sept as a whole in my opinion. Lock it in!

Hey Les and we finally disagree on the upcoming pattern. Watched Brian's video and glad he mentioned the possible tropical system off the Carolina coast which I had mentioned earlier this week. How far west can the rain reach and the low must come rather far west because we know those mountains are not easy to cross. One reason I believe we cool down at the end of the month is the trough that is out west and not talking pacific northwest which is common but a deep trough including all of California. That trough will start to lift north and east sometime later next week and this will allow cold fronts to once again start coming out of Canada. I would expect at least one between the 21st and 30th of the month and yes maybe a second cold front. I believe models will catch on to this probably over the weekend or early next week. We do agree on the middle 10 days of the month and a warmer period that should bring us near normal by then but then I believe the last 10 days will finally end up near normal or slightly below normal.

I'm not expecting much from the next system either that BG talked about. This time it is coming from the East and the system will lose a lot of its punch much in the same way that Francine will. Dry air. Down sloping winds off the Appalachian Mountains. The more the drought intensifies and takes up more land areas, the harder time it will be for us to go below avg in temps IMO.

[Bgoney]

Agree on low to the east for next week and reasons , which are the same from Francine’s. 500mb pattern is just pitiful for the OV and meaningful moisture

[tron777]

83 as of 1pm at CVG.

12Z GFS keeps the bulk of the moisture S of us over Central KY for the system next week. I'm not the least bit impressed.

[tron777]

86 now as of 2pm.

[tpweather]

83 as of 1pm at CVG.

12Z GFS keeps the bulk of the moisture S of us over Central KY for the system next week. I'm not the least bit impressed.

Hey Les and you saw my post that its hard for rain to make it over the mountains but what can happen is rather extensive cloud cover for a couple of days and getting that in mid-September will keep temps below normal during the day and of course above normal at night and once again the temps end up average. So yes the ongoing dry spell will continue to keep daytime temps higher but the overnight lows can fall below normal lows with no problems. Just to add about the system over the Carolina's early next week and one reason its sort of developing is part of the leftover from the current Hurricane is headed that way. Still have a nice jet along the gulf area and of course another reason the Hurricane will lose strength plus the high in the Great Lakes. I heard some folks mention the moisture from Francine is being pushed further southwest and really its just getting drained by the dry air but whats left is not heading southwest but southeast where there is a more favorable conditions. Once again tropical systems are just having a hard time getting going in the middle of the Atlantic and storms are forming near the US mainland seems to be the only option for getting tropical rains this season plus my guess is the jet stream is able to hit these storms in the middle of nowhere and we see this time and time again where there is a decent shot of a storm forming only to be downgraded a few days later.

[MVWxObserver]

I know its 2 1/2 weeks away but are models showing near average seasonal temps or somewhat above average for the week of 9/23-9/28? Just wondering as my sister from NC will be coming up to see my folks and I during that period.

[Bgoney]

I know its 2 1/2 weeks away but are models showing near average seasonal temps or somewhat above average for the week of 9/23-9/28? Just wondering as my sister from NC will be coming up to see my folks and I during that period.

Eric ,going by the ensembles atm, (Dayton ) a high temp range of 78-85 and low temp range of 57-64.

[tron777]

83 as of 1pm at CVG.

12Z GFS keeps the bulk of the moisture S of us over Central KY for the system next week. I'm not the least bit impressed.

Hey Les and you saw my post that its hard for rain to make it over the mountains but what can happen is rather extensive cloud cover for a couple of days and getting that in mid-September will keep temps below normal during the day and of course above normal at night and once again the temps end up average. So yes the ongoing dry spell will continue to keep daytime temps higher but the overnight lows can fall below normal lows with no problems. Just to add about the system over the Carolina's early next week and one reason its sort of developing is part of the leftover from the current Hurricane is headed that way. Still have a nice jet along the gulf area and of course another reason the Hurricane will lose strength plus the high in the Great Lakes. I heard some folks mention the moisture from Francine is being pushed further southwest and really its just getting drained by the dry air but whats left is not heading southwest but southeast where there is a more favorable conditions. Once again tropical systems are just having a hard time getting going in the middle of the Atlantic and storms are forming near the US mainland seems to be the only option for getting tropical rains this season plus my guess is the jet stream is able to hit these storms in the middle of nowhere and we see this time and time again where there is a decent shot of a storm forming only to be downgraded a few days later.

I saw it Tim. The set up looks a lot like Francine and I think it'll be a swing and a miss again in terms of rainfall. I agree that the clouds can play a role with temps. Keep 'em down during the day and up at night. We can agreement on that part for sure but I still see no drought busting rains in our future anytime soon unfortunately.

[tron777]

88 at CVG thus far, same with my hood. A bit short of my expectation for the high today.

[MVWxObserver]

I know its 2 1/2 weeks away but are models showing near average seasonal temps or somewhat above average for the week of 9/23-9/28? Just wondering as my sister from NC will be coming up to see my folks and I during that period.

Eric ,going by the ensembles atm, (Dayton ) a high temp range of 78-85 and low temp range of 57-64.

Thank you, Bgoney.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / CMH 89'ed and DAY got to 88 today.

[tpweather]

Today was the perfect September 11th weather in terms of temps. The average for the high and low will come in at 70 which is exactly where we should be on this date. Thursday we should finally go above normal but by how much will depend on cloud cover after the noon hour. Friday and cloud cover should keep high temps down but the overnight lows may not fall so again a day where temps will probably be near normal for this time of year. How much cloud cover early Saturday may determine the afternoon high but at the moment Sunday may be the warmest day in terms of the average for highs and lows and that may continue into Monday before more cloud cover likely by Tuesday. By the time the 20th comes around I am starting to wonder if we get back to normal on temps. Still believe normal to below normal the last 10 days of the month

[tron777]

Good morning! CVG ended up getting 89'ed yesterday per the overnight climate report. Highs mainly in the 80s for the foreseeable future, lows in the 60s. I could see a day in the 70s due to clouds po0tentially from a tropical system but no big time rains are expected anytime soon. Same ole, same ole.