August 2024 Weather Discussion

[Jacob755]

My weather station recorded an air temperature of 98° in Delhi wow!!

Dang! Are you shooting for 100 tomorrow? Knowing my luck I'll get 99'ed lol

I think I might hit 99° but 100° is not out of the question

[tron777]

Per the KY Mesonet Facebook page....

Top soil is steadily drying out across the state. Our Henderson County site has only measured .15” of rain since Aug. 2nd. To the east, our Lewis County site received just over 1” on the 17th but had been mainly dry since. Soil moisture at a 4” depth has dropped to 10% at some stations. #kywx

[tpweather]

Good Evening and played golf today and you can tell the difference in the course and how dry it has become. My tee-time was 9am and it was rather warm and somewhat muggy because of soil moisture but by 11am it felt a little nicer with a small breeze. By 2pm it was not so nice and could not get enough water and a few beers. Looks like Cvg hit 97 and that is possible on Wednesday as well. I believe Thursday and Friday may be a tad lower on temps but I do expect dew points to increase so the feel like temp should probably be near 100 as actual temps probably in the 92-94 range. I do agree it will take a little time to get the cooler temps in but by Labor Day and early next week temps back in the 70's for highs. After that will watch the tropics and see if they come alive or they continue to play possum.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / CMH got to 97 and DAY 94 today.

[MVWxObserver]

2045 UNK 3 ENE Granger St. Joseph IN 4176 8609 large tree uprooted and another large limb snapped. (IWX)

2115 UNK 5 N Goshen Elkhart IN 4165 8582 2 large pine trees snapped. (IWX)

2155 UNK 1 NNW Nevada Mills Steuben IN 4174 8509 several large limbs downed. (IWX)

2245 UNK 2 SE Sylvania Lucas OH 4168 8369 Tree branch fell down on power line and caused a small fire. (CLE)

2246 UNK 2 N Clay Center Ottawa OH 4160 8336 tree branch down on SR 579 and Genoa Clay Center Rd and power line on W. Walbridge East Rd near Billman Rd. (CLE)

2248 60 3 ENE Clay Center Ottawa OH 4159 8330 Sustained winds of 20-30 and gusts of 50-60 mph. (CLE)

2305 UNK 2 SW Toledo Lucas OH 4164 8361 Dispatch reports several trees and power lines down across Lucas County. (CLE)

2307 66 4 N Whitehouse Lucas OH 4158 8380 ASOS station KTOL Toledo. (CLE)

2310 UNK 3 NE Waterville Wood OH 4152 8369 Medium sized tree down on Seminary Road in Perrysburg Ohio. (CLE)

2317 UNK Grand Rapids Wood OH 4141 8386 Lots of power outages reported ... trees ... and at least one power line down in Grand Rapids. (CLE)

2330 UNK Weston Wood OH 4134 8379 Multiple utility poles and trees down. A roof was also blown off of a residence. (CLE)

2336 UNK 3 NE Mccomb Hancock OH 4114 8377 Report from mPING: 3-inch tree limbs broken; Power poles broken. (CLE)

2340 UNK Cygnet Wood OH 4124 8364 Tree down on a shed ... as well as estimated winds of 60 mph. (CLE)

2347 61 1 NNW Arcadia Hancock OH 4112 8352 Mesonet station GW2591 Arcadia. (CLE)

0003 60 2 SE New Riegel Seneca OH 4103 8330 Just northwest of McCutchenville. (CLE)

0010 UNK 3 SSE Mount Blanchard Hancock OH 4085 8354 Tree down at 149 and 154 as well as power lines down at 196 and 197. (CLE)

0027 UNK 1 WNW Upper Sandusky Wyandot OH 4084 8330 Tree limbs and power lines down in Wyandot County. (CLE)

0100 UNK Long Beach La Porte IN 4175 8685 several trees downed across northern LaPorte County. Long Beach was the hardest hit area. (IWX)

0102 UNK Michigan City La Porte IN 4172 8688 Several trees and power lines down throughout Michigan City. Time estimated from radar. (IWX)

0118 UNK 1 SW La Porte La Porte IN 4159 8673 A few trees downed along with several large branches down. Time estimated from radar. (IWX)

[MVWxObserver]

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[tron777]

Good morning all! Quite a bit of action on radar this morning North of the area. There is an outflow boundary moving south out of IND. Where it stops will be the focal point for strong to severe storms this afternoon and evening. I still say north of Cincy has the best chance, but as usual we shall see! It'll be interesting to see if any clouds from the convection to our NW will impact high temps today or not. Fri night and esp Saturday now looks to be the best chance with a slower frontal passage. That maybe good news as far as getting better rain coverage is concerned.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and your forecast looks great. I agree that the best shot of storms will be north but anybody in the local area could still get a storm or two. If you are lucky enough to get hit with one of these storms expect very heavy rain and strong winds for a short period of time. Still going with 95-97 today though like you mentioned if we get some clouds in here that could hold temps down a degree or two. Thursday and Friday will probably be the hottest in terms of temp and humidity combined with the heat index likely to top 100 at some point. Weekend starts out on the muggy and hopefully some rain and by Labor Day temps in the mid-upper 70's and lows dipping back down into the 50's. Next week a gradual warm up but low 80's is near normal and we may have another deeper trough in here late in the week or weekend that will knock temps down once again. These fronts will continue to invade the area without the tropics getting busy. Still no major sign that anything important will develop over the next week but it seems sooner or later the Cape Verde season will get underway.

[tron777]

Thanks Tim! We should get into the mid to upper 90s again like yesterday, as long as clouds don't impede that. We'll see what the visible satellite looks like once the sun comes up. Otherwise... hoping Saturday pans out for the region since the chances for the rest of this week look low.

[tpweather]

Not sure the correct to post but will stick it here. So it seems the main part of the tropical season will happen after the peak period. What does this mean for the fall. Well at first with no systems we are able to get cool fronts through here rather easy. If and again the tropics wake up they could extend further into the fall. Imo this would mean a rather warm fall period even though next couple of weeks should be near to below normal in terms of temps. We are just in a wait and see period and the odds are tropical activity will pick up but exactly when and where these systems go has a lot to do with how are weather behaves.

[tron777]

The overnight ensembles (EPS and GEFS) both looked more troughy in the extended range. The 8-14 Day analogs from the CPC showed 2009 weighted 4 times! That was a cooler then normal September in 2009 so I thought that was interesting. Sept 2009 was -2 degrees below avg at CVG and around 1.5" above normal in rainfall. That sure would be nice in terms of helping out with the drought situation. Of course this is only an analog. I could see cooler then avg however, below avg precip to me makes more sense since these cool shots we've been getting have been dry with very dry air masses.

[tron777]

In the short term.... looking at radar and satellite, the precip is rapidly drying up and there are plenty of clear skews over us too. Mid to upper 90s shouldn't be a problem now. It will be interesting though to see if any convection can pop esp NW of the Tri-state later today. I think the cap will be too strong to see much down Cincy way, NKY etc.

[tpweather]

In the short term.... looking at radar and satellite, the precip is rapidly drying up and there are plenty of clear skews over us too. Mid to upper 90s shouldn't be a problem now. It will be interesting though to see if any convection can pop esp NW of the Tri-state later today. I think the cap will be too strong to see much down Cincy way, NKY etc.

I agree Les and many times you see these storms form and you get some mileage out of them. That is not case with the current set up as we have too much dry air at most levels and these storms will only last so long and even if you see some on radar late today these can no doubt die off quickly. Sure once in awhile you can get one to break the cap but that is the exception and not the norm.

[tron777]

In the short term.... looking at radar and satellite, the precip is rapidly drying up and there are plenty of clear skews over us too. Mid to upper 90s shouldn't be a problem now. It will be interesting though to see if any convection can pop esp NW of the Tri-state later today. I think the cap will be too strong to see much down Cincy way, NKY etc.

I agree Les and many times you see these storms form and you get some mileage out of them. That is not case with the current set up as we have too much dry air at most levels and these storms will only last so long and even if you see some on radar late today these can no doubt die off quickly. Sure once in awhile you can get one to break the cap but that is the exception and not the norm.

Great post Tim, exactly! Hopefully we will see some better coverage locally for Saturday. The front continues to slow down in more of the models now so hopefully we will be able to score something by then. As usual, some folks will and some won't as is typically the case this time of year. At least the temps will be much nicer after this week is over.

[tron777]

Per ILN's overnight AFD, here are the record highs for today for the big three climate sites. It'll be close!

Records for Wednesday, August 28

CVG 98 (1953, 2007)

CMH 97 (1948)

DAY 96 (1953)

[tron777]

Already up to 81 / 69 as of 9am at CVG. We'll see if the dews stay up today or if they mix out a bit this afternoon I would think that they would stay up as the first cold front draws closer to the area. It will wash out eventually and we'll get the stronger front on Saturday.

[tpweather]

Already up to 81 / 69 as of 9am at CVG. We'll see if the dews stay up today or if they mix out a bit this afternoon I would think that they would stay up as the first cold front draws closer to the area. It will wash out eventually and we'll get the stronger front on Saturday.

Great Post Les and if they mix out 95-97 looks great but if the dew points stay up after the noon hour we may fall just a tad short. Either way going to be hot. We are off to a warmer start because of the higher dew points this morning by 4 degrees but that equation will not work for today if the dew points remain at 67 or above.

[tron777]

Already up to 81 / 69 as of 9am at CVG. We'll see if the dews stay up today or if they mix out a bit this afternoon I would think that they would stay up as the first cold front draws closer to the area. It will wash out eventually and we'll get the stronger front on Saturday.

Great Post Les and if they mix out 95-97 looks great but if the dew points stay up after the noon hour we may fall just a tad short. Either way going to be hot. We are off to a warmer start because of the higher dew points this morning by 4 degrees but that equation will not work for today if the dew points remain at 67 or above.

In addition, we started off warmer this morning too compared to yesterday also thanks to the higher dews.

[Bgoney]

IMG_2124.jpeg

[tron777]

SPC has upgraded areas north of the River into a slight risk for severe wx this afternoon and evening. Discussion....

...Ohio Valley to Mid-Atlantic...
Widely scattered to scattered thunderstorms are expected along and
south of the front today from IN to the Mid-Atlantic Coast, and
perhaps the southern New England Coast/Long Island vicinity.
Damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be possible.

Coverage of convection is uncertain, but relative concentrations may
develop downshear from what is now disorganized/nonsevere convection
over OH (in the same UVV field), and ahead of the MCV over parts of
IL/IN, becoming organized across parts of IN/OH. Diurnal heating of
a favorably moist airmass is expected to weaken already modest
ambient MLCINH along the outlook corridor by late morning. With
lift along the front and prefrontal outflow/differential-heating
boundaries, growth of morning to early afternoon development into
one or more complexes appears to be a plausible scenario, rendering
a greater wind than hail threat. Surface dewpoints commonly in the
mid 60s to low 70s F will offset modest mid/upper-level lapse rates
enough to contribute to peak/preconvective MLCAPE in the 800-1500
J/kg range from OH eastward, and 1000-2000 J/kg back into portions
of IN. Weak, generally veered low/middle-level flow will limit
vertical shear. Still, nearly unidirectional westerly flow through
a deep layer will foster movement of convection parallel to the
low-level moisture-instability axis.

[tron777]

I checked the 12Z NAM and HRRR and both models show very little so if anything does pop, assuming the guidance is correct, maybe a 20-30% chance that a storm occurs at your location.

[tpweather]

No doubt the difference when you have the higher dew points. Yesterday we were at 87 at 11am but today we started out warmer but with the dew point at 70 we are still at 86 which is the same temp as last hour.

[tpweather]

Wow you can just feel the humidity today compared to the last few days. Can't wait until Sunday when this heat spell is over

[tron777]

87 / 69 as of 12pm at CVG. It probably isn't going to be as hot temp wise as yesterday but the humidity will actually make it feel much hotter then it was yesterday. 12Z GFS looks like 60-70% coverage for this afternoon and evening however, it is all north o the river.

[tpweather]

87 / 69 as of 12pm at CVG. It probably isn't going to be as hot temp wise as yesterday but the humidity will actually make it feel much hotter then it was yesterday. 12Z GFS looks like 60-70% coverage for this afternoon and evening however, it is all north o the river.

Hey Les and I agree since I have been hounding this point way to much but it seems to work around in late August. Normally the highest dew points we see are in June and July as the vegetation is usually at its height. Usually by August some drying has happened and especially late August and we tend to stay below 70 for the most part. Upper 60's is still nothing to sneeze at but it may fall a few degrees in the next couple of hours. If somehow it falls several degrees then the quick heating of temps can happen. I am still going 95-97 but like you mentioned going to feel much worse today. I see this happening as well on Thursday and then Friday I am backing off on the temps a few degrees but the humidity may be its worse that day.

As for the chances of rain and though the gfs may be overdone a tad I believe the short term models are wrong because some action will happen and those two models show nothing even towards I -70. The river may be the dividing point but again always give it 20-30 miles each side when trying to get the exact location of storms that have not even developed