Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion 2024

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 19A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.8N 79.8W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM S OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ESE OF SAVANNAH GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ESE OR 105 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY A LITTLE STRONGER...
...DANGEROUS FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.3N 79.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

From Wed ...

1819 2 SSW Harrells Sampson NC 3470 7822 Confirmed tornado. At least one law enforcement eyewitness as it was on the ground ... plus confirmed by TDS on KRAX. Two homes damaged. (RAH)

1843 Maple Hill Pender NC 3467 7772 Debris on Highway 53 from tornado. (ILM)

0235 UNK Catherine Lake Onslow NC 3479 7756 Jones Onslow EMC reported several outages along Fire Tower Rd. northwest of Jacksonville. Time based on radar. (MHX)

0610 UNK 4 W Newport Carteret NC 3479 7693 Carteret-Craven EMC reported a tree top broken off that fell onto power lines in Newport. (MHX)

0615 UNK 1 E Pine Knoll Shores Carteret NC 3470 7680 Carteret-Craven EMC reported powerlines torn down along Salter Path Road in Pine Knoll Shores. Time based on radar. (MHX)

0651 3 NNW Lucama Wilson NC 3568 7803 Extensive damage to Springfield Middle School. (RAH)

0652 3 NW Lucama Wilson NC 3568 7805 *** 1 FATAL *** Home collapsed resulting in 1 fatality on Lloyd Road. (RAH)

0652 4 NW Lucama Wilson NC 3568 7806 Several homes damaged or destroyed along Lloyd Road between Wiggins Mill Road and Governor Hunt Road. (RAH)

1141 UNK 1 SW Askin Craven NC 3521 7708 200 people without power on NC 43 just north of NC 55 caused by fallen trees on powerlines. (MHX)

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 22
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
Issued by the NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
500 PM EDT Wed Aug 07 2024

...DEBBY SLOWLY APPROACHING THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.5N 79.1W
ABOUT 50 MI...80 KM ESE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 85 MI...135 KM S OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 23A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...DEBBY MAKES LANDFALL NEAR BULLS BAY SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM EDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.0N 79.6W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM NE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 24A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND OVER SOUTH CAROLINA...
...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.1N 79.9W
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM WNW OF MYRTLE BEACH SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM N OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[tpweather]

Have not heard from my brother-n-law but he was vacationing in the outer banks of NC this week. Looks like quite a bit of rain since Tuesday with more today.

[tpweather]

Looks like over the next few weeks any tropical system that is headed towards the USA will mainly be either in the eastern GOM or east coast. That Bermuda High out in the Atlantic plus the strong high in the southwest and the troughs in central USA keeps us sort of locked in the current pattern

[tron777]

Looks like over the next few weeks any tropical system that is headed towards the USA will mainly be either in the eastern GOM or east coast. That Bermuda High out in the Atlantic plus the strong high in the southwest and the troughs in central USA keeps us sort of locked in the current pattern

Agreed Tim. GFS / Euro are both showing a couple more systems approaching the SE US in the extended range. Don't know if there will be any system that strikes the Coast or not. If we have an Eastern US trough then any system would get deflected off the Coast and back out to sea. We shall see what happens down the road.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Debby Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
1100 AM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA AS DEBBY MOVES FARTHER INLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.5N 79.9W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Debby Intermediate Advisory Number 25A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
200 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...34.8N 80.2W
ABOUT 55 MI...85 KM ESE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 100 MI...175 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

[MVWxObserver]

From Thurs ...

1211 5 E Louisburg Franklin NC 3611 7821 Damage to trees and homes near White Level Road and Hickory Rock Road caused by tornado. (RAH)

1347 UNK 2 NE Roanoke City of Roanoke VA 3730 7993 The City of Roanoke reported that power lines were down in the 2700 block of Mansfield Street Northeast. (RNK)

1430 UNK Pittsboro Chatham NC 3572 7917 Several reports of trees down blocking roads across Chatham County including Stone Hill Road ... Old Graham Road ... Sandy Branch Church Road ... and Hadley Mill Road. (RAH)

1451 UNK 3 ENE Ararat Surry NC 3642 8052 The Surry County Sheriff's Office reported that a tree was down blocking the roadway at the intersection of Long Hill Road and Ararat Road in the area of Pilot Mountain. (RNK)

1500 UNK Lexington Davidson NC 3581 8026 Several roads blocked by fallen trees across Davidson County including Tussey Rd ... Kindley Rd ... Country Ln ... Tussey Ave ... Old Burkhart Rd ... Midway School Rd. (RAH)

1509 UNK 1 SW Chilhowie Smyth VA 3679 8170 The Smyth County 911 Center reports that a tree was down across U.S. Highway 11 and the road was partially blocked as a result. (RNK)

1510 UNK 1 ENE Danville Airport Pittsylvania VA 3659 7932 The Pittsylvania County 911 Center reported that a large tree was down across Tom Fork Road in the 3000 block of the roadway. The downed tree was blocking the entire road. (RNK)

1820 UNK Corapeake Gates NC 3653 7658 Reports of a few trees down on power lines and limbs down in the Corapeake area. May have been a possible brief touchdown according to radar - time estimated from radar (AKQ)

1828 UNK 3 S Nurney City of Suffolk VA 3659 7661 Large oak blown down. (AKQ)

1929 3 WNW Ingleside Franklin NC 3620 7834 Debris ... power lines ... and limbs down at the 1400 block of Rocky Ford Road. (RAH)

1938 UNK 2 SE Kings Fork City of Suffolk VA 3677 7660 *** 2 INJ *** Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 1 SE Kings Fork. Large trees down on Pruden Blvd north of Suffolk. 2 minor injuries and one tree down on a vehicle. (AKQ)

1941 UNK 1 SE Kings Fork City of Suffolk VA 3677 7661 Large trees down on Pruden Blvd north of Suffolk. Possible tornado based on radar data. (AKQ)

1945 UNK 4 ENE Sand Hill Brooks GA 3100 8359 Tree limbs blocked the right lane of SR-122 Eastbound at Alderman Road. (TAE)

2250 UNK 1 S Ruther Glen Caroline VA 3799 7754 Dispatch reports several homes damaged and multiple trees down in the Lake Caroline subdivision and on Cedar Fork Rd. Possible tornado. (AKQ)

2255 1 S Ruther Glen Caroline VA 3799 7754 Corrected for time and additional information. Dispatch reports at least 10 homes that were damaged ... with multiple trees downed ... in the Lake Caroline subdivision. (AKQ)

2301 4 SE Gillburg Franklin NC 3624 7832 Destroyed residence near NC Highway 39 and Henry Ayscue Rd. (RAH)

2301 4 SE Gillburg Franklin NC 3624 7833 Power lines down and possible structural damage near the Epsom Fire Department on NC Highway 39 near Eaves Rd. (RAH)

2305 UNK 2 ESE Bowling Green Caroline VA 3805 7732 Spotter reports multiple trees down on homes ESE of Bowling Green. Possible tornado. (AKQ)

2309 UNK Marshallton New Castle DE 3973 7565 probable tornado. Roof damage to grocery store. (PHI)

2311 UNK Sherwood Park New Castle DE 3974 7565 probable tornado- trees onto garage. Other large tree down nearby. (PHI)

2312 UNK 1 N Walterboro Colleton SC 3293 8067 Colleton County Emergency Management reported a tree down on Longleaf Drive near Jefferies Highway. (CHS)

2312 Marshallton New Castle DE 3973 7565 Two independent reports from a trained spotter and fire department of a tornado on the ground near the intersection of Route 7 and Kirkwood Highway. (PHI)

2316 UNK 1 S Brookfield Stafford VA 3829 7743 Tree down in the 30 block of Blair Road (LWX)

2323 UNK 3 NNW Cottageville Colleton SC 3298 8049 Colleton County Emergency Management reported a tree down and power lines down blocking one lane near the intersection of Wesley Grove Road and Rehoboth Road. (CHS)

2344 UNK 1 SSE Wise Warren NC 3646 7817 Tree down near the intersection of Weldon Road and US-1. (RAH)

0000 1 S Heflin Stafford VA 3847 7758 Several trees down along Hartwood Rd. near Park Farm Ln. Tornado preliminarily confirmed by dual-pol radar analysis ... and will be followed up by a ground survey. (LWX)

0119 3 ENE Upperville Loudoun VA 3902 7783 Confirmed EF-1 tornado with 100 mph estimated peak winds. Estimated maximum path width was 100 yards. Estimated path length was 4.7 miles. (LWX)

0245 UNK 5 NNW Round O Colleton SC 3300 8057 Colleton County Emergency Management reported a tree down near the intersection of Round O Road and Sidneys Road. The tree was blocking both lanes of the roadway. (CHS)

0325 UNK 4 WNW Tomahawk Berkeley WV 3955 7811 Berkeley County EM reports power lines and trees downed near the 190th block of Brumbaugh Lane. Possible tornado. (LWX)

0350 4 WNW Tomahawk Berkeley WV 3955 7811 Confirmed EF-0 tornado with 80 mph estimated peak winds. Estimated maximum path width was 150 yards. Estimated path length was 0.3 miles (LWX)

0825 UNK Moncks Corner Berkeley SC 3320 8001 Emergency Manager reported a tree blocking the Haynesville Ext due to flood flashing and thunderstorm wind. (CHS)

0833 UNK 2 NW Steelton Dauphin PA 4025 7685 Dozens of trees down; structural damage warehouse. (CTP)

0945 UNK Harrisburg Dauphin PA 4028 7688 Multiple trees down ... some on a house. (CTP)

[tron777]

Debby is down to a depression now.

Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 26
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL042024
500 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAROLINAS AND
WESTERN VIRGINIA...
...FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE WEATHER PREDICTION
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.1N 80.2W
ABOUT 45 MI...75 KM E OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 95 MI...155 KM WSW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES


We also have a wave in the far Eastern ATL that now has a 40% chance to develop over the next 5 days,

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

[tron777]

Tropical Depression Debby Advisory Number 27
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL042024
1100 PM EDT Thu Aug 08 2024

...MAJOR FLOOD THREAT CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN VIRGINIA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.2N 80.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM NNE OF CHARLOTTE NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 90 MI...140 KM WNW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 20 DEGREES AT 26 MPH...43 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

The wave in the far Eastern ATL now has a 50% chance to develop in the next 5 days.

[tron777]

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number 29
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL042024
1100 AM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT EXISTS TODAY
ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO UPSTATE NEW YORK...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.7N 77.7W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM NE OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA
ABOUT 215 MI...345 KM WSW OF ALBANY NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 37 MPH...59 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES


The Eastern ATL wave now has a 60% chance in the next 5 days. This one will likely become Ernesto sometime next week.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and Debby is almost gone and what a widespread heavy rain event. Usually don't see this kind of heavy rain from southwest Florida to New England with a tropical system. The next system should get going early next week but way too early to see exactly the track as we wait and see other factors including a front that comes through here today and exactly where that front will be next week. It may wash out and also the Bermuda High will get stronger again but exactly where in the Atlantic. No matter what the next week should be wonderful in terms of temps for us locally and getting nearly a week with below normal temps this time of year is rare.

[tron777]

This will be my last Debby post:

Post-Tropical Cyclone Debby Advisory Number 30
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD AL042024
500 PM EDT Fri Aug 09 2024

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND A SIGNIFICANT FLOOD THREAT
LINGERING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...44.0N 74.9W
ABOUT 135 MI...220 KM NNE OF BINGHAMTON NEW YORK
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WSW OF BURLINGTON VERMONT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 38 MPH...61 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 65 mph possible

[MVWxObserver]

For Fri ...

1501 58 4 S Middle River ANZ531 MD 3925 7637 Weatherflow XHRT at Hart/Miller gusted to 50 knots. (LWX)

1844 UNK Oaks Montgomery PA 4013 7546 Report from mPING: 1-inch tree limbs broken. (PHI)

2011 UNK Watson Lewis NY 4377 7543 A few trees down in Watson. Time estimated by radar. (BUF)

2015 UNK Croghan Lewis NY 4390 7539 A few trees down in Croghan. Time estimated by radar. (BUF)

2022 UNK Brantingham Lewis NY 4369 7529 A few trees down in Brantingham. Time estimated by radar. (BUF)

2130 UNK Alstead Cheshire NH 4315 7237 Observed 4 downed trees along River St (Hwy 123) between Troy Hill Rd and the Congregational Church of Alstead. Measured peak gust at 52 mph (Kestrel). (GYX)

2151 2 SE New Paltz Ulster NY 4173 7406 An EF 0 tornado occurred along the NYS Thruway uprooting a few hardwood trees near exit 18. (ALY)

2151 UNK 4 N Woodsville Grafton NH 4421 7205 Spotter reported trees and wires down on NH-135 ... Road fully closed at time of report. (GYX)

0552 UNK Wildwood Carteret NC 3473 7684 Customers without power in Wildwood. Power outage caused by fallen trees or limbs. (MHX)

[tron777]

The far Eastern ATL wave has a 309% chance in the next 2-3 days for development, and an 80% chance in the next 5 days,