July 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Let's all wish a very happy birthday to Mike (cloudy72)! I hope you have a wonderful day man!

[tron777]

SPC has us under a slight risk for severe wx today and tomorrow with a marginal risk on Friday. We will be all aboard the MCS Train thru Saturday before all areas begin to dry out once again. On most days, temps will be in the U80s to the L90s with high humidity. Heat indices will be in the 95 to 100 degree range.

For today, once again, we are keeping an eye on the developing MCS over Iowa that will be due in here (if it tracks correctly) in that 3-6pm range.

[tron777]

A few isolated cells have popped up across the Tristate this morning well in advance of the Iowa MCS.

[Bgoney]

Some nice bonus showers along the river. Slow movers to boot

IMG_2027.jpeg

[winterstormjoe]

Lots of rumbling here in Cheviot, looks like these cells will mostly move south of here towards Delhi an NKY.

[tron777]

Looks like we are getting some nice rains at The Dome!

8am totals:

CVG - 0.53"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.37"

[Bgoney]

Looks like we are getting some nice rains at The Dome!

8am totals:

CVG - 0.53"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.37"

Always a fine line , but I think Tim’s dome is taking a beat down this go round, a little training going on near his hood

[tron777]

Looks like we are getting some nice rains at The Dome!

8am totals:

CVG - 0.53"
Boone Co mesonet - 0.37"

Always a fine line , but I think Tim’s dome is taking a beat down this go round, a little training going on near his hood

I'm thrilled at the totals from my hood! Looks like Tim is logged on so let's see how much he reports. He needed the rain even more then me lol 24 hour total now at CVG is 0.76" Closer to 0.38" out my way.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice wake up call. Got in late from Kings Island yesterday and got lucky with the weather though it was warm an muggy we had no rain and yes some clouds that helped at times to cool you down. Looks like 89 was the high yesterday. Will check the rain guage here shortly but my guess somewhere in the 1/2 range. Saw a few met's on the news last night and they all said exactly what he have on here and its almost impossible for the models to get this pattern down. Timing changes all the time and really its a nowcast everyday several times a day. I just hope its spread among everyone. Today going to the movies so no problem hopefully lol.

[tron777]

Awesome Tim! Glad to see you cash in. Your turn now Bgoney!

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and we had one round of thunder that knocked a picture off the wall. Is this pattern something we see this time of year. Yes and no because usually these start earlier in the late spring and early summer because that is the normal time we see the heat expanding in the central USA. That was not the case this season as that area was cool and wet for much of the late spring/early summer season. No doubt it has arrived but probably 4-6 weeks later than the norm. With many folks getting some rains this will help in keeping any extended heat away imo. Sure some low 90's in August but at the moment not seeing any extended heat wave. Many years this is a time we are getting dry and you see the lawns start to get ugly. I have had the ugly for 6 weeks so it looks like the lawns are starting to see green so again this helps in terms of long term heat as the vegetation is starting to take off as well.

Rain total at the moment is 0.66 but still coming down but not nearly as heavy

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and we had one round of thunder that knocked a picture off the wall. Is this pattern something we see this time of year. Yes and no because usually these start earlier in the late spring and early summer because that is the normal time we see the heat expanding in the central USA. That was not the case this season as that area was cool and wet for much of the late spring/early summer season. No doubt it has arrived but probably 4-6 weeks later than the norm. With many folks getting some rains this will help in keeping any extended heat away imo. Sure some low 90's in August but at the moment not seeing any extended heat wave. Many years this is a time we are getting dry and you see the lawns start to get ugly. I have had the ugly for 6 weeks so it looks like the lawns are starting to see green so again this helps in terms of long term heat as the vegetation is starting to take off as well.

Rain total at the moment is 0.66 but still coming down but not nearly as heavy

Good morning Tim and I agree. I don't see the heat getting too out of hand either. Low 90s max as you mentioned which is only 6 degree above avg (avg high in Aug is 86 at CVG). My lawn is starting to recover also albeit slowly.

[Bgoney]

GFS hasn’t done to bad with this pattern of MCSs. Hires models have been awful imo , look at this morning local activity. Its developed into a fairly large area of showers which none of them had , except the GFS to an extent. EU has been totally lost

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

Thunderstorms have developed this morning along an elevated
instability gradient situated north to south from southwest ohio
through northern Kentucky. In the wake of these showers, some
low stratus clouds have also been expanding over portions of
southeast Indiana this morning. Models are not handling this
situation well, but would expect the thunderstorm activity to
continue to work slowly east through the late morning hours and
the stratus to gradually burn off. All of this will lead to
some uncertainty as to how well we will be able to destabilize
through early afternoon as the MCS, currently back across
Illinois, approaches our area from the northwest. If we are
able to get into a few hour period of decent sunshine late this
morning/early this afternoon, the MCS may very well be able to
maintain itself into our area. If this occurs, damaging winds
will be possible with some of the storms from mid to late
afternoon, with the highest threat for this across our
southwest. For now will continue with highs in the upper 80s to
lower 90s with the potential for some heat indices close to 100
degrees across our southwest, but there is also some uncertainty
with this due to the current clouds and pcpn across our
southwest and the approaching MCS.

[tpweather]

Just starting to look at the complex out in Illinois. From what I can tell with the radar is the complex is moving more east than southeast. This tells me that the heat is probably expanding in southern Illinois,western Kentucky and probably southern Indiana. Though we had some decent activity in southern Kentucky yesterday it looks like the next round of storms should be closer to our area. Exactly where is still not easy to forecast but the radar is sort of giving us a tiny hint and looks like we should be in a decent area for storms later today.

[tron777]

12Z HRRR isn't performing well today either. It didn't really have the AM activity. It weakens the Iowa MCS completely and only pops a few scattered storms late this afternoon and into the evening hours. Probably best to nowcast as usual. As ILN stated in my above post, we'll have to see how long it takes the stratus cloud deck to erode.

[tron777]

Raining now here in Mason.

[Bgoney]

Showers fizzling out as usual into my hood .

[tron777]

Showers fizzling out as usual into my hood .

Hopefully we can destabilize so that the ILL MCS has a chance to impact the region later. The sun is trying to come back out here in Mason.

[tpweather]

Showers fizzling out as usual into my hood .

Hopefully we can destabilize so that the ILL MCS has a chance to impact the region later. The sun is trying to come back out here in Mason.

Les we are seeing hazy sunshine already here after the morning rains. I believe there will be no problem later today as the the atmosphere should destabilize. Saying that does not mean we get hit directly and just something to watch this afternoon. Dew points remain high and we have enough heat and humidity to the southwest to help feed any piece of energy.

[Bgoney]

Showers fizzling out as usual into my hood .

Hopefully we can destabilize so that the ILL MCS has a chance to impact the region later. The sun is trying to come back out here in Mason.

Les we are seeing hazy sunshine already here after the morning rains. I believe there will be no problem later today as the the atmosphere should destabilize. Saying that does not mean we get hit directly and just something to watch this afternoon. Dew points remain high and we have enough heat and humidity to the southwest to help feed any piece of energy.

Yea I’m worried the activity later doesn’t get this far east either . SE Indiana and NKY have a better shot later

[tron777]

BG's video currently in progress...

[tron777]

Showers fizzling out as usual into my hood .

Hopefully we can destabilize so that the ILL MCS has a chance to impact the region later. The sun is trying to come back out here in Mason.

Les we are seeing hazy sunshine already here after the morning rains. I believe there will be no problem later today as the the atmosphere should destabilize. Saying that does not mean we get hit directly and just something to watch this afternoon. Dew points remain high and we have enough heat and humidity to the southwest to help feed any piece of energy.

Yea I’m worried the activity later doesn’t get this far east either . SE Indiana and NKY have a better shot later

Per radar, the front part of the MCS seems to be weakening some atm, with the southern part of it likely taking over. If those trends continue then our chances would be reduced as the southern part of the MCS would likely miss to the SW. However, at this time, I am seeing more and more sunshine taking over at least here in Mason so that might help to recharge the atmosphere ahead of the MCS. As always, it's going to be a close call!

12Z NAM and Hires NAM runs are terrible. They don't show much of anything currently occurring so the PM activity is scattered. I like your post from earlier on the GFS doing a better job. 6Z run looked good for us later on so we'll see what the 12Z run shows later.

[tpweather]

What a wonderful video by Brian. He does a great job and is able to break things down much quicker than I could ever think about doing. We have mentioned on here the problems this week and that is not changing. Now cast so important and the big take away imo is the heat and humidity sitting to the southwest that is feeding these pieces of energy. This morning shows that as a small piece of energy moving through but that increase form the southwest turned it into a nice complex of storms. Models just unable to find these because the atmosphere like Brian mentioned changes on ongoing basis. The main thing he mentioned was this is late July and we have tons of daylight so the atmosphere can rebound quickly in a few hours so not like spring where we only a certain amount of time to reboot the atmosphere.

[tpweather]

Keep up the great work folks. Heading to see twister with my oldest grandson this afternoon and then out to eat but will be back later this evening.