Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion 2024

[tron777]

That north shift is good news for us... closer to the Euro's solution for the middle of next week.

[Bgoney]

5am update. Now looking like the more eastward landfall on the Texas coast means Beryl’s curve and eventual hookup with the Midwest trough, is shallower instead of a more rounded curve northward when it was forecast on the Tex/Mex border and eventually into the OV. Now looks like the Tennessee Valley will get the soaking rains

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[tpweather]

Good Morning Bgoney, I agree about the most likely area would be the Tn Valley. Southern and even Central Kentucky could get into some action later next week but this is not a wide storm by any means so this will be a narrow area of showers and thundershowers. Where it tracks no doubt you can get a good 1-3 inches because we are talking tropical moisture. The problem is usually north of this we tend to get some decent ridging and you can have a sharp cutoff between getting say 2 inches and zero. Something to track but I am leaning more south of the local area but will keep central Kentucky in the northern area of the track at this moment.

[tpweather]

Finally looked at the models to see where they are forecasting Beryl to end up going. The gfs is further south while the Euro and Cmc have it coming directly into the local area. No doubt tropical moisture will feed north and its going to get downright nasty with the humidity. I still believe a further south track but if it does get into the local area you can give credit to the CMC. That model was the first one to bring it into the area. The CMC is a strange model in the sense it sometimes picks out these storms or ones in the winter before any other model. The problem is it seems to lose the storm from about 24-72 hours away. No ideal why but it happens quite often. So yes you do want to give the model credit for finding these systems early on but then you downgrade the model because it loses many of these storms within 3 days.

[Bgoney]

11am update. Better news for us involving possible rains from Beryl. Track center is slightly more west as it moves upstream into the boot heel of Missouri instead of NW Tennessee. It’s not much distance wise but a huge difference in trajectory of the better rains would be at least closer to the tristate. Stay tuned.

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[tpweather]

11am update. Better news for us involving possible rains from Beryl. Track center is slightly more west as it moves upstream into the boot heel of Missouri instead of NW Tennessee. It’s not much distance wise but a huge difference in trajectory of the better rains would be at least closer to the tristate. Stay tuned.
Of course Mother Nature will figure this out but we will have a weak cold front in the area which will also help direct the system once it gets so far north. This is not uncommon and how far south that front goes on Tuesday and Wednesday will have a big say of where the storm is tracking. This storm so far has been rather fast and though it has got strong at times its rather compact. Saw the satellite this morning and once again its gaining strength as you can see the eye rather well.


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[Bgoney]

The plot thickens. 5pm update. Center of forecast path shifts again to the west, pushing the better qpf into central Indiana/western half of KY

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[Bgoney]

5am .NW trend continues. Oh well

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[tpweather]

Good Morning and Beryl is going to hit the Texas coastline either a CAT 1 or strong tropical system. Some wind damage but heavy rain the main concern. The system will slow down over the next 48-72 hours as it heads into southern Missouri. Then as the system speeds up does it continue north or make a somewhat turn east. No doubt the path has changed over the past few days and again the Bermuda High which has been strong to the east of us will play a role as it nudges further west and once again and may be part of the forecast that keeps us from getting a decent rain.

This path is one that you more often with these systems especially in the earlier part of summer. We remember Ivan from years ago but that was in September and the Bermuda High though it was there was further east and allowed the storm to ride up the Ohio Valley.

Still hope we get some rain because the following week looks like a stretch of hot weather in much of the USA though the west coast will start to cool as troughs will start to enter the northwest/

[Bgoney]

Agree Tim , east of 71 is pretty much “sool “ as things Stand now with Beryl. Possible it comes more east but not expecting it to atm. Also agree the drought worsens in the coming week’s especially for the many area’s that got an inch or less for all of last week.

[tpweather]

Agree Tim , east of 71 is pretty much “sool “ as things Stand now with Beryl. Possible it comes more east but not expecting it to atm. Also agree the drought worsens in the coming week’s especially for the many area’s that got an inch or less for all of last week.

I agree Bgoney, and what we need to look for is when the system gets closer they tend to bring in dry air and especially off the mountains. This can really bring totals down and we may be to far east to get into the heavier rains. Indy looks nice so far and really western Ky along with western and central Indiana. Will watch today as the track moved a tad further north in Texas overnight and this may help somewhat but again until it gets inland the exact track is not there but I believe getting close to the correct track. When it gets further north will it be swept away quicker or can it make a more east track for several hours. Not worried about the amount of moisture but you need to be near the track of the low

[tron777]

Chances look 50 / 50 Tues but 70-80% coverage Tues night thru Wed evening.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and the latest gfs model has shifted east which would no doubt put most in the local area with some heavy rain. How the tropical system interacts with the trough will determine the path. No matter what happens we will need to watch for some severe weather and yes that includes tornado's. These are usually the F0 OR F1 but we could also see a period of winds that exceed 20-25 mph for several hours. As a weather lover does not get much better than this for early July

[Bgoney]

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[tpweather]

Very seldom do we see tropical systems that head into Texas end up giving us much in the way of rainfall. One of the main reasons is many times we don't have a trough coming down in the central USA. That is one item we have seen over the past 60 days so that is one reason chances are higher than normal. Pretty wild and the pacific is very quiet and the only other place with some decent tropical weather is India and that is good for them as they have seen many years over the past 10-20 with a weak monsoon season and their population is so dense

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

1930 UNK 4 E Burke Angelina TX 3124 9470 Two trees were downed onto power lines near the intersection of FM 58 and Southern Drive. (SHV)

1948 UNK 2 NW Hudson Angelina TX 3135 9482 Trees down on Bethlehem Road in Hudson. (SHV)

1953 UNK 5 N Hudson Angelina TX 3139 9479 Trees down in the 4600 block of Highway 69 North just northwest of Lufkin. (SHV)

1954 UNK 5 N Lufkin Angelina TX 3141 9472 Trees down in the 900 block of Old Highway 59. (SHV)

0030 2 ENE Beaumont Jefferson TX 3010 9411 Public submitted a video to broadcast media of a possible tornado near 11th Street and North Street as well as Martin Luther King and I-10. (LCH)

0657 7 SW Jamaica Beach Galveston TX 2913 9507 Report of house damage and power lines down due to tornado. Rating unknown and time estimated on radar. (HGX)

0740 76 Port O'Connor Calhoun TX 2845 9641 PCNT2 - Port OConnor. (CRP)

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

[Bgoney]

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Hurricane Beryl was located
near latitude 28.6 North, longitude 96.0 West. Beryl is moving
toward the north near 12 mph (19 km/h). A turn toward the northeast
with an increase in forward speed is expected tonight and Tuesday.
On the forecast track, the center of Beryl will move over eastern
Texas today, then move through the Lower Mississippi Valley into
the Ohio Valley on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft and
National Weather Service Doppler radar data indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts.
Steady to rapid weakening is expected as the center moves inland,
and Beryl is expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today and
to a tropical depression on Tuesday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the
center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
(185 km). A National Ocean Service Station near Freeport, Texas,
recently reported a sustained wind of 71 mph (114 km/h) and a wind
gust of 87 mph (140 km/h). A WeatherFlow station at Surfside
Beach, Texas, recently reported a wind gust of 85 mph (137 km/h).

The latest minimum central pressure reported by the Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 979 mb (28.91 inches). Weatherflow and National
Ocean Service stations near Matagorda recently reported pressures
near 981 mb (28.97 inches) inside the eye of Beryl.

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 39A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
700 AM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING
RAINFALL OVERSPREADING SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS FROM BERYL...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.2N 95.8W
ABOUT 45 MI...70 KM NNE OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM SW OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES

[House of Cards]

So I have been watching this one for slightly more selfish reasons; my family are going to be in Destin next week, and so looking at this I'm hoping I am correct in thinking that Beryl has kinda "cleaned out" the GOM for a few days at least so the likelihood of anything tropical messing with my Florida sunshine is pretty minimal. Am I being too optimistic?

[tpweather]

So I have been watching this one for slightly more selfish reasons; my family are going to be in Destin next week, and so looking at this I'm hoping I am correct in thinking that Beryl has kinda "cleaned out" the GOM for a few days at least so the likelihood of anything tropical messing with my Florida sunshine is pretty minimal. Am I being too optimistic?

Hey Dave and I believe your are correct and we are getting into the mid-summer pattern and that usually means less in the way of tropical systems in this part of the world though it looks to be a busy season I believe you should be just fine. Never been to Destin and many folks enjoy that area and will get down to that part of Florida in the next few years.

[tron777]

So I have been watching this one for slightly more selfish reasons; my family are going to be in Destin next week, and so looking at this I'm hoping I am correct in thinking that Beryl has kinda "cleaned out" the GOM for a few days at least so the likelihood of anything tropical messing with my Florida sunshine is pretty minimal. Am I being too optimistic?

Hey Dave and I believe your are correct and we are getting into the mid-summer pattern and that usually means less in the way of tropical systems in this part of the world though it looks to be a busy season I believe you should be just fine. Never been to Destin and many folks enjoy that area and will get down to that part of Florida in the next few years.

Agreed... After Beryl, I don't see any tropical issues for a bit.

[House of Cards]

So I have been watching this one for slightly more selfish reasons; my family are going to be in Destin next week, and so looking at this I'm hoping I am correct in thinking that Beryl has kinda "cleaned out" the GOM for a few days at least so the likelihood of anything tropical messing with my Florida sunshine is pretty minimal. Am I being too optimistic?

Hey Dave and I believe your are correct and we are getting into the mid-summer pattern and that usually means less in the way of tropical systems in this part of the world though it looks to be a busy season I believe you should be just fine. Never been to Destin and many folks enjoy that area and will get down to that part of Florida in the next few years.

They don't call it the Redneck riviera for nothing, Tim! You should give it a go. Lot's of fun stuff to do there. Will be going deep sea fishing on Monday, I believe, and have a Dolphin Booze Cruise with my favorite power boat people on The Original Sea Blaster. Best booze cruise out there if you plan on going ever!

[tron777]

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
900 AM CDT Mon Jul 8 2024

...DAMAGING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS
OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS INCLUDING THE HOUSTON AREA...
...900 AM CDT POSITION UPDATE...

Houston Hobby Airport (KHOU) recently reported a sustained wind of
58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust of 84 mph (135 km/h).

A National Ocean Service (NOS) station at Morgans Point recently
measured a sustained wind of 66 mph (106 km/h) and a gust to 77 mph
(124 km/h).

SUMMARY OF 900 AM CDT...1400 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.7N 95.7W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM W OF HOUSTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES