Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion 2024

[tpweather]

Usually we tend to get a break in the action in July but this season we know the area is primed. The Pacific on the other hand is so quiet and has been that way for several years. No doubt something going on but keying in on that is not easy and probably many factors. The upcoming change to La Nina is acting quite nicely with India really getting hit with the monsoon season and that is good news because over the past decade they have not been hit quite as much and really can use the rainfall.

[tron777]

Two waves to talk about. None of which are threatening. One is across the S Caribbean and it has a 20% chance to develop over the next 5 days. The other is off the Cape Verde Islands way out in the Eastern ATL, and it has a 30% chance per the NHC.

[tron777]

The wave off of Africa now has a 70% chance to develop over the next 5 days per the NHC.

[tron777]

The tropical wave in the Eastern ATL is now 95L and the NHC has raised it to a 60% chance of development over the next 2 or 3 days with an 80% chance now in the next 5 days. This one has a very good chance at becoming Beryl. Most of the guidance has it impacting the Caribbean Islands next week. TBD if it makes it into the Gulf or recurves out to sea off the East Coast. Stay tuned....

[tron777]

Tropics are beginning to fire up with a Caribbean wave getting a 30% chance. The Eastern ATL wave is now a 90% chance and could become a TD here shortly. Then a new wave has just come off of Africa that has a 20% chance.

[winterstormjoe]

Depending on the southerly flow, we may have some haze here down the road. I'm sure this Sahara dust will have some effect on Atlantic tropics?

https://www.foxweather.com/weather-news ... rida-texas

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
800 AM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE IT REACHES THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 46.8W
ABOUT 975 MI...1570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

Beryl is cooking along to the West. A hurricane watch is up for the island of Barbados.

[tron777]

The S Gulf wave has a 40% chance now but it will likely run into the Mexican Coast at this time. The next wave off of Africa now has a 60% chance to develop in the next 5 days. The Atlantic Season is off and running now!

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Sat Jun 29 2024

...BERYL EXPECTED TO BECOME A DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BEFORE
REACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.0N 48.4W
ABOUT 785 MI...1260 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 23 MPH...37 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...998 MB...29.47 INCHES

[tron777]

Beryl is now a Cat 2 hurricane with winds of 100 mph moving W at 21. Here is the current intensity forecast from the NHC:

INIT 30/0900Z 10.7N 53.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
12H 30/1800Z 11.1N 55.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 01/0600Z 11.8N 59.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
36H 01/1800Z 12.9N 62.5W 115 KT 130 MPH
48H 02/0600Z 14.1N 66.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
60H 02/1800Z 15.4N 70.1W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 03/0600Z 16.3N 74.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 04/0600Z 17.8N 80.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 05/0600Z 19.1N 87.1W 85 KT 100 MPH

I don't recall getting a hurricane this strong so early in the season. Could be a bad sign of things to come IMO.

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...BERYL CONTINUING TO RAPIDLY INTENSIFY...
...FORECAST TO BRING LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE TO THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS AS AN EXTREMELY DANGEROUS HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 53.1W
ABOUT 465 MI...750 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...981 MB...28.97 INCHES

[tron777]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...VERY DANGEROUS MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL STILL STRENGTHENING AS IT
APPROACHES THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.7N 54.9W
ABOUT 355 MI...570 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...964 MB...28.47 INCHES

This thing may become a Cat 4 now. WOW!

[Bgoney]

Beryl is a beauty on satellite

IMG_1890.jpeg

[tron777]

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 8A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Sun Jun 30 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 BERYL APPROACHING THE WINDWARD
ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED THERE BEGINNING
EARLY MONDAY MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.9N 55.6W
ABOUT 310 MI...500 KM ESE OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 405 MI...650 KM ESE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...960 MB...28.35 INCHES

The S Gulf wave has an 80% chance now to develop before it runs into Mexico. The wave behind Beryl stands at 70% over the next 5 days.

[tron777]

We now have TD 3 in the Gulf. It may become a weak TS Chris before hitting Mexico.

Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032024
400 PM CDT Sun Jun 30 2024

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER PORTIONS OF
EASTERN MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 94.9W
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM ESE OF TUXPAN MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[tron777]

TD Chris has run into Mexico so we can say good bye to that one. The far E Atlantic wave has a 70% chance in the next 5 days. All eyes of course continue to be on major hurricane Beryl.

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...BERYL TAKING AIM AT THE WINDWARD ISLANDS...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND STORM SURGE EXPECTED TO BEGIN
THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.7N 59.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM ESE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 140 MI...225 KM SE OF ST. VINCENT
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...965 MB...28.50 INCHES

[Bgoney]

Mods in pretty good agreement 5 days out Beryl visits Yucatán. To soon to say after that how hard a curve north it makes

IMG_1892.png

[tron777]

Mods in pretty good agreement 5 days out Beryl visits Yucatán. To soon to say after that how hard a curve north it makes

Agreed. It'll depend on how strong it is once it gets back into the Gulf, assuming it does, and any troughs that may try and dip down from the NW.

[tron777]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
1100 AM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS EYEWALL OF BERYL MOVING OVER CARRIACOU
ISLAND...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS ARE
OCCURRING...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.4N 61.3W
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NE OF GRENADA
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ESE OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...956 MB...28.23 INCHES

[Bgoney]

11am update. Not much change in forecast

IMG_1897.png

[tron777]

WOW!!!

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
100 PM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUE IN
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...

Beryl continues to produce catastrophic winds and life-threatening
storm surge to the Grenadine Islands, Carriacou Island, and Grenada.
This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.
Residents should not leave their shelter and remain in place through
the passage of these life-threatening conditions.

A weather station at Grenada airport recently reported a sustained
wind speed of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust of 121 mph (194 km/h).

A weather station in St. Lucia recently reported a sustained wind
speed of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (102 km/h).

This is the last hourly Tropical Cyclone Update on Beryl. The next
intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 61.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WNW OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

What an historical event folks for so early in the season. 156 mph is a Cat 5 so it's close! The earliest Cat 5 on record in the Atlantic basin was Emily on July 16th, 2005. Beryl has a legit chance to shatter that record!

[tron777]

Still 150 as of 2pm:

Hurricane Beryl Intermediate Advisory Number 12A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
200 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS BERYL ENTERS THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND DANGEROUS STORM SURGE CONDITIONS
CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.8N 62.3W
ABOUT 60 MI...100 KM WNW OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM NW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

[House of Cards]

WOW!!!

Hurricane Beryl Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
100 PM AST Mon Jul 1 2024

...CATASTROPHIC WINDS AND LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE CONTINUE IN
THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...

Beryl continues to produce catastrophic winds and life-threatening
storm surge to the Grenadine Islands, Carriacou Island, and Grenada.
This is an extremely dangerous and life-threatening situation.
Residents should not leave their shelter and remain in place through
the passage of these life-threatening conditions.

A weather station at Grenada airport recently reported a sustained
wind speed of 92 mph (148 km/h) and a gust of 121 mph (194 km/h).

A weather station in St. Lucia recently reported a sustained wind
speed of 52 mph (83 km/h) and a gust of 63 mph (102 km/h).

This is the last hourly Tropical Cyclone Update on Beryl. The next
intermediate advisory will be issued at 200 PM AST (1800 UTC).

SUMMARY OF 100 PM AST...1700 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.6N 61.9W
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WNW OF CARRIACOU ISLAND
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM NNW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES

What an historical event folks for so early in the season. 156 mph is a Cat 5 so it's close! The earliest Cat 5 on record in the Atlantic basin was Emily on July 16th, 2005. Beryl has a legit chance to shatter that record!

Wow!

[House of Cards]

so will this curve our way once it hits Mexico and maybe break our drought?

[tron777]

so will this curve our way once it hits Mexico and maybe break our drought?

As Bgoney said earlier, it's way too soon to know. My current thoughts are that it is either going into Mexico or S Texas or making a hard right turn to the NE missing us to the SE. Hope I am wrong. Would love to see its leftover moisture here.

[tron777]

Hurricane Beryl Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL022024
500 PM AST Mon Jul 01 2024

...MAJOR HURRICANE BERYL MOVING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS, DANGEROUS WAVES, AND HEAVY RAINFALL
PERSIST OVER THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.2N 63.2W
ABOUT 125 MI...205 KM NW OF GRENADA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES