June 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Talking about the heat and is this going to be the pattern and many things involved to get an all out heat wave that lasts the whole summer and I don't believe that will happen for a few reasons. First the tropics look active and though we may not see a true storm head this way anytime soon you do get tropical moisture that will try and make it this far north. Second and the northern plains looks to stay active with rain and cooler weather and this will help with any cold front that may try and work its way south. They are making up for lost time in the rain department and if their soil is getting wet and even though we are getting dry fronts can poke their heads in hear once in awhile.

So by the end of the summer it may be a rather normal summer before all is said and done but yes we will have some decent hot spells but I do believe we will also have some brief breaks in the heat and hopefully when that happens we get some rainfall as well.

[tron777]

Talking about the heat and is this going to be the pattern and many things involved to get an all out heat wave that lasts the whole summer and I don't believe that will happen for a few reasons. First the tropics look active and though we may not see a true storm head this way anytime soon you do get tropical moisture that will try and make it this far north. Second and the northern plains looks to stay active with rain and cooler weather and this will help with any cold front that may try and work its way south. They are making up for lost time in the rain department and if their soil is getting wet and even though we are getting dry fronts can poke their heads in hear once in awhile.

So by the end of the summer it may be a rather normal summer before all is said and done but yes we will have some decent hot spells but I do believe we will also have some brief breaks in the heat and hopefully when that happens we get some rainfall as well.

I think that we are going to need the tropics with regards to receiving some beneficial rains. The current Ensembles do show the ridge retrograding briefly to the Western US and we get a trough for a few days during the last week of June. However, it is only for a few days then the heat comes right back to end June to start July.

[tron777]

88 with a dew of 60 at CVG as 2pm. So the humidity is slowly but surely coming up. We have a very slim chance at an afternoon and evening t-storm today thru maybe Wed of next week. If you get a storm then your high will be around 90 or so. No storms then 90 to 95 looks good. Heat indices won't be too bad today but 100+ everyday next week starting tomorrow. Overnight lows will be in the 70s so you won't get much relief at night. A/C's will be getting a work out this week that is for sure.

A cold front / trough will be dropping in from the Great Lakes by Sunday the 23rd. Our best chance of storms will come by then. The GFS has a stronger front about June 26th and that (if correct) will bring in a refreshing airmass for a few days before the heat builds back in for the beginning of July. That is kind of how I see things. We could put together 7 days at or above 90 starting with today and running thru next Sat the 22nd.

[tron777]

90 as of 3pm at CVG so our contest is off and running. Unfortunately, we have many more of these to come.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 91, DAY 89'ed and CMH 90 today.

Currently 90 here in G'ville.

[airwolf76]

I havent really had to run the AC much this year ( just fans) but that will all change this week

[tron777]

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT FRIDAY...

* WHAT...A prolonged period of dangerously hot conditions with heat
index values near 100 degrees.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Indiana and northeast and northern
Kentucky.

* WHEN...From noon today to 8 PM EDT Friday.

* IMPACTS...Hot temperatures and high humidity may cause heat
illnesses.

[tron777]

Good morning all! In addition to the above, our best chance for storms for the work week is this afternoon and evening. We should see 30-50% coverage across the area. Some won't see a thing but for those that do, brief heavy rain and gusty winds are possible along with thunder and CG lightning. An isolated severe storm is possible. Highs in the 90s all this week and on into this weekend can be expected. A small storm chance tomorrow then again by Sunday. Stay cool my friends!

[tron777]

82 / 71 / 86 (temp / dew / heat index) as of 10am at CVG so things are already off to a hot start., Low was 75. Yuck! Anyway, we'll see what happens with regards to the pop up storms due in for some of you later on. Per this morning's sounding at ILN, the convective temp for today is 90.

[tron777]

[tron777]

90 now as of 12pm at CVG. Most of the CINH is just about gone now. Skies are mostly cloudy due to increasing moisture from the south. Plenty of CU development doing on now as well with CAPE values in excess of 3000 J/KG across the area! DCAPE values are highest north and NW of Cincinnati atm. Low level lapse rates are pretty steep now too. However, no shear as we have very weak steering currents in the atmosphere and that will limit storm organization as well as coverage. just those popcorn type storms / pulse storms are all that is expected. Storms will form, grow a bit, and rain themselves out with very slow movement. Due to the lapse rates and CAPE, I cannot rule out an isolated severe storm with wind being the main issue, but again this is isolated. Waiting to see how things evolve as the afternoon progresses. We need the rain so good luck to you all! A small chance Tues, maybe even Wed too per the latest 12Z GFS. Then we flat out bake Thurs - Sat with the best chance for rain with a cold front as the heat ridge breaks down by Sunday.

[tron777]

We are getting clipped by a t-storm here in Mason... light rain now falling.

[BookNerdCarp]

Just missed one here....floated right by lol

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 91 both here in G'ville and DAY.

[tron777]

CVG dropped to 89 at 1pm, now back up to 90 again at 2pm.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

92 so far here today, 93 CVG. Looks like most of the scattered cells are north of the river. Lawn is getting crunchy already.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 93, DAY 92 and CMH 95 today.

[Browneyedgirl]

I can report exactly 5 drops of rain and a bunch of thunder. I sadly watched it head over to the east.

[MVWxObserver]

1824 UNK 3 NW Clarksville Warren OH 3944 8402 Large tree snapped along north Clarksville Road. Time estimated by radar. (ILN)

1828 UNK 2 SSW Pataskala Licking OH 3997 8269 Tree down on Refugee Rd near Liberty Christian Academy. Time estimated from radar data. (ILN)

1841 UNK 1 NW Clarksville Warren OH 3942 8400 Tree down near intersection of US-22W and Clarksville Rd. (ILN)

1841 UNK 1 E Sabina Clinton OH 3949 8362 Tree down near intersection of E Washington and Hunt Dr. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1914 UNK 4 NNE Peebles Adams OH 3899 8338 Multiple trees reported down near State Route 73. (ILN)

1925 UNK 3 WSW Washington Court House Fayette OH 3953 8348 Three branches from dead trees down between Jasper Mill and Washington Court House along US-22. The one in Washington Court House fell on a porch roof. Time estimated from radar. (ILN)

1925 UNK 1 SE Downtown Dayton Montgomery OH 3975 8419 One inch diameter tree limbs were broken off. (ILN)

1948 UNK 2 NNE Ashville Pickaway OH 3974 8295 A tree was downed over St. Paul Road. (ILN)

2015 UNK 7 SW Adelphi Ross OH 3938 8283 Several trees were downed along Hough Road. (ILN)

2026 UNK 2 WNW Lancaster Fairfield OH 3973 8264 Reports of multiple trees downed ... several that fell on top of structures and power lines. (ILN)

2041 UNK 3 S Pataskala Licking OH 3995 8268 Reports of large tree branches downed along with broken power poles. (ILN)

2044 UNK 2 SSW Pataskala Licking OH 3997 8269 Corrects previous tstm wnd dmg report from 2 SSW Pataskala. Tree down on Refugee Rd near Liberty Christian Academy. Time estimated from radar data. (ILN)

2144 UNK 4 S Santa Claus Spencer IN 3806 8695 Barn roof blown off. Several trees down. (PAH)

2151 UNK 2 NE Farmersburg Vigo IN 3927 8736 Localized downburst downed a couple trees and snapped several power poles. Time estimated from radar. (IND)

2233 UNK 3 W Philpot Daviess KY 3775 8704 A large tree split down the middle that fell on vehicles in the Gateway Townhomes parking lot. (PAH)

2314 UNK 1 NNW Shoals Martin IN 3868 8680 Tree uprooted across road near US 50 northwest of Shoals. Time estimated from radar. (IND)

2340 UNK Montgomery Daviess IN 3867 8704 Pictures received of large tree limb snapped from base of trunk. Time estimated from radar. (IND)

0000 UNK Odon Daviess IN 3884 8699 Tree damage noted in town. Time estimated from radar. (IND)

[tron777]

Good morning all! No rain at all down here. We'll try it again this afternoon, but the coverage shouldn't be as good as it was yesterday. The 90s continue thru the weekend. Still expecting a cold front on Sunday to offer us our best chance for rain. Monday of next week, we drop back into the upper 80s. We will get a brief break from the heat. Unfortunately, I expect it to rebuild rather quickly.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a great post Les. Just a few items on the heat and why we will get some breaks this summer but also several times this summer we get those 5-7 days of heat and humidity. The northern plains and upper mid-west have been hit with storms and quite a bit of rain over the past several weeks. This is good news for them but it also has an influence on our weather to a certain extent. Will be hard to build any long term heat in those areas and cold fronts though few in the summer should be able to work its way southeast which should give us breaks in the heat this summer.

We know the tropics are going to be busy but his is good and bad for us. With so much tropical moisture we will have chances to get in on some rain at times but unless we get a true tropical system or a cold front that stalls and can throw up some moisture we will be muggy but temps may not get out of hand. The northeast has a better shot of being hot and dry this summer as early in the season they are far enough away from the tropical moisture and though the humidity may be somewhat lower at times they can really get hot and remember many folks in the northeast do not have A/C.

So is this a typical summer and to some extent yes and what you would expect. Just like the past several years the overnight lows have been key in keeping us above normal temp wise and that will once again set up this summer season.

The media of course will run with the heat but its been hotter than this many times before and guess what we made it through and will do so this time as well.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! Good point about the media. They love their doomsday propaganda. It's what drives up the ratings.

[tron777]

Hope you have a wonderful Birthday, Mark!

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY 61ST BIRTHDAY MARK!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!