June 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good Morning and nice start to the day. Les has the forecast covered so mainly talk about the possible heat arriving late in the week. A few things to talk about and one being the possible tropical action near Florida. This tends to mess with models and really the overall pattern because it can slow things down in the weather world. This time though the tropical action may not get a storm that reaches tropical storm criteria but just a lot of rain. That may help in keeping the weather across the USA progressive enough where any heat late next week does not stay long. Matter of fact if you look at parts of Canada there could be another strong cold front that may be able to make it into this part of the world say in 10 days.

We usually get that first 90 early when the dew points are still rather low and yes time of the year where the days are long. Then we get a few days in the upper 80's and then ahead of a cold front we tend to get that last blast of heat. So at this point and yes timing likely to change but I see the first 90 maybe next Saturday and then a couple of upper 80's when the humidity comes in and then a 90 degree shot ahead of the cold front probably a week from Tuesday.

No matter what happens summer is going to happen lol.

[tron777]

I'd like to mow today but due to clouds and no wind, the grass is soaked from the dew this morning. Will have to wait a bit before mowing the hill in the backyard especially. Due to the lack of rain in the future and the incoming heat, this maybe the last time I mow for a while, esp the backyard.

[tpweather]

I'd like to mow today but due to clouds and no wind, the grass is soaked from the dew this morning. Will have to wait a bit before mowing the hill in the backyard especially. Due to the lack of rain in the future and the incoming heat, this maybe the last time I mow for a while, esp the backyard.

Les I have been mowing my in-laws yard and the front and side will continue to keep this every 5-7 days but the back yard will be a wait and see and more like keeping it from looking to shabby so maybe every 10-14 days at the moment.

[tron777]

I'd like to mow today but due to clouds and no wind, the grass is soaked from the dew this morning. Will have to wait a bit before mowing the hill in the backyard especially. Due to the lack of rain in the future and the incoming heat, this maybe the last time I mow for a while, esp the backyard.

Les I have been mowing my in-laws yard and the front and side will continue to keep this every 5-7 days but the back yard will be a wait and see and more like keeping it from looking to shabby so maybe every 10-14 days at the moment.

Yeah, the backyard will probably go a couple of weeks now after today. It faces south so it dries out and burns up quickly.

[tron777]

It does feel really nice outside this morning! I'm sure going to miss these temps in another week.

[snowbo]

I mowed this morning too. Couldn't help but wonder when I will mow again with the temperature 64 degrees...it may be October.

[tron777]

I mowed this morning too. Couldn't help but wonder when I will mow again with the temperature 64 degrees...it may be October.

Monday of next week then that'll be it probably until October LOL Just finished up myself.

[tpweather]

What a beautiful end of September day. Enjoy the next several days as some heat is headed this way. How much heat and how long is still up in the air. Not seeing any long term heat and probably not much above 90 for this round. Just to much vegetation here and places out to the south and west. If we stay dry for the next several weeks then I start to worry about a longer period of heat and some higher temps but too early to see how that pans out.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 77, DAY 80 and CMH 78 on Sat.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another nice day for early/mid June. The pattern is trying to change starting later this week as this forum has posted but the complete change may take longer due to a few items. First is location of the Bermuda High and its still rather far east in the Atlantic and this will create a flow of moist air into Florida this week. May not form a tropical system but plenty of tropical moisture. Second the high in the southern plains is starting to grab hold and with cooler air in the mid-west this has put the Missouri Valley in the firing range for storms and though we see very little in the way of rain here because of the dry air Missouri is holding back the heat lol. Third item and one that will finally end but Canada is still throwing some cold front this way and for this time of year some decent shots. Just getting a cold front through here this time of year can be difficult the upcoming week we could have a few move through which holds back the heat.

I still expect we get near 90 by Friday and Saturday but not much above. Then with the moisture in the Florida area the flow may be strong enough to bring moisture into the Ohio Valley which you don't see often without a tropical system but with the Bermuda High well to the east and the high setting up shop in the southern plains the flow can be quite strong. If this happens that would be in about 8-10 days and again this could be nice since the upcoming week looks rather dry and getting tropical moisture in here is just what the doctor ordered. Once we get into the last week of June you would expect the high over the southern plains to try and push the heat further north and west and it will happen plus seeing signs of a low in the Gulf of Alaska and getting that in the summer usually means the western USA gets cooler and folks east of the Rockies start to get rather toasty.

So enjoy the rather nice weather through Wednesday and then we start to warm up. Still a chance Tuesday morning a few upper 40's in the area and enjoy that as this may be the last hurrah for those temps until September.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Tim's above post has us covered nicely. The only thing I will add is I am leaving in a chance for storms on Friday with a cold front dropping in from the north. The chance is low due to the front weakening as it moves in,. Best chance is northern posters. Otherwise as mentioned, we are looking nice for temps and humidity thru Wed then we turn up the heat and the dews after that. Upper 80s to the lower 90s looks like a good temp range by the end of the week.

[tron777]

77 here, 78 at CVG. The low humidity is wonderful and it feels nice outside! Been working on fusing up some of my mortar racks today taking advantage of the nice conditions. I've spent many a year sweating my butt off in 90 degree heat prepping fireworks! I've got 4 racks done, 6 more to go but I will save that work for another day.

Weatherwise. nothing much else to report. You guys know the forecast. Beautiful weather until we get to Thursday then the humidity and temps really start to increase. 90 degrees is likely by Friday on into Father's Day weekend. I'm still keeping slight chance POPS in late Friday for that weakening front dropping in but otherwise, that is the only chance for rain that I see for the next week or so and it's a slim chance at best. Highest chances north, lowest south is still the call.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG, DAY and CMH all reached 79 today.

[tron777]

Good morning all! No changes to the forecast thru the weekend. Read the last several posts if you haven't done so. With this post, I will talk about next week and beyond. Once we get past the very warm Father's Day weekend... we will remain warm and humid but start to get a daily chance of afternoon and evening t-storms as more moisture gets advected in from the Gulf. A typical OV summertime pattern. Sometime after 6/20, maybe around the 22-23rd... I expect the ridge to retrograde to the west allowing for NW Flow and an MCS pattern for us to be possible. This would knock our temps down a tad and also bring in some much needed rain to the region. So we've got a boring week this week with things slowly picking up next week and then after that maybe a little Ridge Rider action??? Stay tuned...

[Trevor]

00z GFS and Euro are TOASTY!

Agreed Les about the ridge retrograding. Should happen last portion of the month.

[Trevor]

00z Meteograms. Obviously those numbers need to be tinkered with but the moral of the story is the heat is coming.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a very nice start to the week and starting Thursday we will start getting into some true summertime weather. Do we hit 90 by the end of the week and usually that first day of lower humidity but the heat is on the move tends to give you a quick 90 so that would be either Friday or Saturday. Then we probably stay in the 88-92 range for a few days before we move the ridge to the west. We are starting to get dry so that does promote those temps and folks say in the Missouri Valley where the models are showing upper 90's and that is not going to happen at first because of the soil moisture and that alone will help form clouds in that 11a-2pm time period and this promotes 2-3 hours of slower heating.

So yes models are better than say years ago but still have a problem with moisture in the soil just like in winter when the models have problems with snow cover. This is where the really good mets will not just go by pure numbers a model throws out.

[tron777]

I think the upper 80s to the lower 90s is a great call for the region. CVG maxes out at 92 or 93 IMO at this time. I'm pretty much in agreement with Tim on the temps. I think the GFS, Euro and CMC are a bit too warm and the GEFS is a little closer to the truth.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and we are on the same page for sure. The CMC and Euro are starting to show a tropical system in the western GOM at the end of the run. Could this happen and yes its possible as the gulf waters are way above normal for this time of year. Going to be a busy tropical season and we just need to see if this will increase the heat for us this summer which I believe we will see some pretty strong highs forming but also will this give us better shots of some tropical moisture say late in June and July which is not the normal. Summer is usually the most boring time in the weather world around here but this summer may be a tad more exciting.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and we are on the same page for sure. The CMC and Euro are starting to show a tropical system in the western GOM at the end of the run. Could this happen and yes its possible as the gulf waters are way above normal for this time of year. Going to be a busy tropical season and we just need to see if this will increase the heat for us this summer which I believe we will see some pretty strong highs forming but also will this give us better shots of some tropical moisture say late in June and July which is not the normal. Summer is usually the most boring time in the weather world around here but this summer may be a tad more exciting.

Tim... whether we see a tropical system develop or not for next week.,... some of that moisture should be flowing northward from the Gulf and into our area and is what should provide us with that daily chance of PM t-storms that I mentioned this morning. If a system does indeed develop, that should only up the ante as far as storm coverage goes. If a tropical system doesn't develop, then we will just see isolated to scattered pop up activity. That is kind of how my thought process is going for next week at this point.

[tron777]

Cloudy skies now as expected with this last trough moving thru. 67 at CVG so cracking 70 will be a challenge. Gusty N winds too. Enjoy it because you know what is lurking.

[Bgoney]

Dang that wind is chilly. Wish I would have brought a hoodie with me to work

[tron777]

Dang that wind is chilly. Wish I would have brought a hoodie with me to work

I bet! CVG had a gust to 31 mph as of the 1pm reading. Temp dropped a degree too, down to 66.

[tron777]

Today's long term 12Z GFS doesn't show the NW Flow pattern and instead more heat. This is due to the tropics and a hurricane going into Texas. We shall see how long the heat lasts once it gets here. The tropics may play a role.

[Bgoney]

GFS is up to its old early season long range hurricane hijinks