May 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Hey Les and again we are talking a few degrees and there will be some nice ridging ahead of the next system which is another reason severe chances look higher. Indy and Louisville should no doubt hit 85 and above and of course Louisville could be near 90. I am going 80-82 Sunday and Monday and then Tuesday is the wild card as the system starts to move sometimes you get that push of warmth but at this point just adding 1 degree to my totals. Again this means nothing but fun to do some forecasting

[snowbo]

Pretty soggy here. Up to 1.1 inches so far.

[tron777]

Hey Les and again we are talking a few degrees and there will be some nice ridging ahead of the next system which is another reason severe chances look higher. Indy and Louisville should no doubt hit 85 and above and of course Louisville could be near 90. I am going 80-82 Sunday and Monday and then Tuesday is the wild card as the system starts to move sometimes you get that push of warmth but at this point just adding 1 degree to my totals. Again this means nothing but fun to do some forecasting

No doubt Tim! Our calls are like 95% the same for both rainfall amounts and upcoming temps. We are both trying to be as accurate as we can.

[tron777]

Pretty soggy here. Up to 1.1 inches so far.

Nice Bo! Glad to see you cashing in nicely! CVG is up to 0.07" now as of 10am with the Boone Co mesonet site checking in with 0.09"

[tron777]

An update from the boys as of 9:27am:

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Morning update was centered on trying to give a more accurate
positioning of the precip chances over the CWA for today.
Limited thunder to just a slight chance given very few cg
strikes over a several hour period, concentrated along the weak
convective line running from ene to wsw of the Dayton airport.
Oddly, notably stronger cells south and east of Columbus have
not produced any lightning activity. Stratiform rain with
some moderately precipitating areas is along and south of the
Ohio River, and over the southern Scioto Valley. Expect
stratiform rain to prevail over the CWA today with showery
components. The potential for thunder had me broad-brush the
precip type as showers for the sake of simplicity. Temps and
dewpoints had barely perceptible changes when current forecast
was blended with short term models.

[tpweather]

Steady light rain for most folks and of course a few pockets of heavy rain and that will be the story for the afternoon and evening. Heading into summer and the drought update across the USA is really good and the southwest has some problems but then it is very spotty across the remainder of the USA. Much different than last year to say the least

[tron777]

Steady light rain for most folks and of course a few pockets of heavy rain and that will be the story for the afternoon and evening. Heading into summer and the drought update across the USA is really good and the southwest has some problems but then it is very spotty across the remainder of the USA. Much different than last year to say the least

No doubt and you can clearly see it by looking at the soil moisture maps from the CPC too.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... lmst.shtml

[tpweather]

Steady light rain for most folks and of course a few pockets of heavy rain and that will be the story for the afternoon and evening. Heading into summer and the drought update across the USA is really good and the southwest has some problems but then it is very spotty across the remainder of the USA. Much different than last year to say the least

No doubt and you can clearly see it by looking at the soil moisture maps from the CPC too.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... lmst.shtml

Les that is one problem I am having about predicting a hot summer. Sure we can dry out quickly but much of the USA is doing well. We know things can change quickly but at this point the heat may be during the second half of summer. Going to hard for the contest as well because of the unknowns.

[tron777]

Steady light rain for most folks and of course a few pockets of heavy rain and that will be the story for the afternoon and evening. Heading into summer and the drought update across the USA is really good and the southwest has some problems but then it is very spotty across the remainder of the USA. Much different than last year to say the least

No doubt and you can clearly see it by looking at the soil moisture maps from the CPC too.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... lmst.shtml

Les that is one problem I am having about predicting a hot summer. Sure we can dry out quickly but much of the USA is doing well. We know things can change quickly but at this point the heat may be during the second half of summer. Going to hard for the contest as well because of the unknowns.

Yeah... it is going to be interesting for sure. I am thinking about going low for June 90 degree days and ramping them up for July and Aug with even a couple of lingering ones into early Sept. It's always a crap shoot with these contests anyway but it's fun to try and figure out what Mother Nature has in store for us.

[tpweather]

Will watch the rain this afternoon as some heavier rain is near Louisville and moving east/northeast. Will watch this and see if this moves into the local area though at the moment it looks to be more likely with the folks south of the river.

[tron777]

I agree Tim...thinking SE of the I-71 corridor is a decent guess at this time. Last I checked, CVG had 0.09" as of 12pm so not a lot of rain for parts of the local area. Nice to see the I-70 Crew, like Bo, cashing in nicely earlier this morning.

[tron777]

68 at CVG as of 2pm with partly cloudy skies. 0.10" for total rainfall for the day thus far.

[tron777]

I found this on the NWS ILN website that in the state of Ohio, there is a partnership between the Ohio EMA, NWS ILN, and Lamar. Lamar are the folks who do the electronic billboards along highways, It looks like they have created an Ohio Traveler Alert System to warn drivers of bad weather. I've seen alerts on the traffic signs over the last several years but this is something new. Link is below for further information.

https://ema.ohio.gov/prepare-respond/be ... ert-system

[tron777]

It looks like the boys are done now doing storm damage surveys and what not from the 5-7/8 severe wx event. The tornado count in our forecast area for that event is now up to 14! Damage paths, EF ratings etc. are all now listed if you're interested in checking it out.

https://www.weather.gov/iln/20240507

[tron777]

I'm up to 72, and I'm even seeing a peak of sun here. A few scattered storms are out there where enough heating has occurred behind the main area of stratiform rain that is now to our south. Look for some patchy fog tonight and in the morning along with humid conditions. Just a small shower / t-storm chance for tomorrow so don't cancel your outdoor plans. Then we heat up with the mid 80s easy Sunday thru Tues of next week. Storms become likely again Wed and Thurs and I'd keep one eye open for a severe chance Wed afternoon and evening. There is a big severe wx outlook area already from the SPC for Tues (Day 5) to our west, and I think we will be under the gun for Day 6 which is Wed. Stay tuned...

[MVWxObserver]

CVG got to 72, DAY 74 and CMH 73 today.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a little foggy. The fog should burn off and a rather nice day though we still have some moisture left in the atmosphere an isolated shower could pop up but most folks should stay dry. The models are no doubt pushing temps higher Sun-Tues with mid to even upper 80's. I am still a little hesitant to go that high and will continue to go 80-82 Sunday and Monday and 83 Tuesday. We still have some moisture around and the mid-day cloud increase may end up being the tie-breaker on temps. Models seem to have problems in soil and vegetation until you hit the first day of expected higher temps and then they adjust. I worry more about Tuesday ahead of a decent cold front that temps could go higher. Again a few degrees means little if anything but like Les we try to give the most accurate forecast possible.

[tron777]

Good morning all and as Tim mentioned, it's pretty foggy out there! The boys have a dense fog advisory issued as one would expect until 10am. Most folks will remain dry today IMO as the coverage for rain this afternoon is extremely isolated. If you happen to get one your highs will stay in the 70s. If you don't, 80 is possible. Then, I am going dry for Sun - Tues with temps in the mid 80s. Yeah, as Tim mentioned, I saw the upper 80s too and ILN has that in our zone forecast product for Monday and Tues. Even local 12 has 87 on those days! We'll see but the mid 80s for sure are a lock!

Then, we will watch Wed afternoon and evening for our next chance of rain with possibly strong to severe t-storms to go along with it. As usual, it will depend on the timing of the frontal boundary. Tuesday, well to our West could be a very rough day for severe wx so we'll have to see how that plays out first before we can hone in on our fate for Wed. Beyond that... Thurs and Fri will also feature a daily chance for showers and t-storms.

For the big 3 day Memorial Day weekend... so far Sat into Sun could be dry but Sun night into Memorial Day itself looks pretty stormy at this early stage of the game. Again, it's early so that can still change.

[tpweather]

Forgot the rain total yesterday was 0.07 so this time I ended up on the short end which is fine since still plenty of standing water in places.

[tron777]

Agreed Tim and it was nice to not be in the jackpot zone for once. Had to put some Seven Dust and some slug pellets out on some of the garden plants this morning. It's been good for those kinds of critters to flourish with the wet ground and mild nights we've been having. Grass is soaked due to the fog! So, the lawn will have to wait to be mowed. Anyway, going out to my Brother's today to catch a couple of the boys baseball games then we are having a fish fry after that. At least with the dry weather thru Tuesday, there should be plenty of time to get the grass mowed.

[MVWxObserver]

Currently 73 here in G'ville and progged for around 80.

[MVWxObserver]

79 here in G'ville and 78 DAY.

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY reached 81 and CMH 85 today.

[MVWxObserver]

...SUMMARY...

Severe thunderstorms are expected across parts of Kansas into northwest Oklahoma from late afternoon into mid-evening, including the potential for a derecho. Destructive wind swaths of 80-100 mph may occur, with localized extreme gusts exceeding 100 mph possible. Very large hail and a few tornadoes are also anticipated.

[Bgoney]

Agreed Tim and it was nice to not be in the jackpot zone for once. Had to put some Seven Dust and some slug pellets out on some of the garden plants this morning. It's been good for those kinds of critters to flourish with the wet ground and mild nights we've been having. Grass is soaked due to the fog! So, the lawn will have to wait to be mowed. Anyway, going out to my Brother's today to catch a couple of the boys baseball games then we are having a fish fry after that. At least with the dry weather thru Tuesday, there should be plenty of time to get the grass mowed.

I was wondering if anyone else was having this problem in the garden. It’s been a real slugfest here as well. Been picking them off every morning before work. I’ve never had them this bad, as you said it’s been perfect conditions for the slimy critters