tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 4:30 am
Good morning! We will see what the hi-res models show later on this week but for now, the globals have a small rain chance Sat mainly in the afternoon as a front drops in. The front then sinks south of us and comes back north on Easter. Rain returns during the afternoon and evening hours. So right now, most folks maybe good on Sat for Easter Egg Hunts or early Sun morning. Looking wet for Sun night thru Tues of next week. So April starts off on a wet note. The front sinks south of us during the water off by Wed of next week. Let's see if we can get an inch or so of rain out of this next multiday event.
Good Morning Les. That would be nice and the nao is still predicted to be on the negative side which should slow down systems. By the end of March we will be near normal in terms of precip for the year and about 4 degrees above average temp wise though it seems milder.
Still expecting a frost advisory tonight as we should have a nice drop once the sun sets. Easter like you mentioned is something we need to watch as a front should be somewhere nearby and if you are north of the front it can be rainy and cool but south of the front much milder and though not a steady rain but rather showers or thundershowers that pop up. Hopefully by Friday the models will have a good handle on this for any plans folks may have.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:00 am
Reading up on the ongoing switcheroo to LaNina and looks like a fairly rapid one at that . Sub-surface cool pool has rapidly intensified/expanded since the new year with mostly easterlies dominating. Next 3 months those cool waters will finally break to the surface and spread across 3.4 region. Right now conditions on par with strong/ moderately strong LaNina by fall. Not exactly what we what to see.
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Not at all. A weak to mod event would put us more on a 95-96 or 2010-2011 note, but a strong one could spell more mild and snowless conditions. The Triple Dip La Nina winters weren't all that good to us either.
I hope the PDO region stops cooling, that combo of -PDO/LaNina just hasn’t been kind to the mid section of the country as far as drought conditions go
Totally agree. In fact, if you look at 95-96, that was a +PDO combined with a weak Nina. Even if the Nina was mod to strong, if we had a +PDO, we would absolutely have a different outcome. A -PDO as you know does not bode well for us.
Today looks to be another day where our high came at midnight versus the normal daytime high that we usually see due to the typical diurnal swings that you get with temps. CVG should record their midnight reading which was 49 as the high since during the day, 43 looks to be about it. Temp is down to 41 now as of the 2pm reading.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:21 pm
Today looks to be another day where our high came at midnight versus the normal daytime high that we usually see due to the typical diurnal swings that you get with temps. CVG should record their midnight reading which was 49 as the high since during the day, 43 looks to be about it. Temp is down to 41 now as of the 2pm reading.
Been snowy at my sons house all day with temps in the low 20's. He mentioned about an inch has fallen but just plain cold
Opening day looks great and a nice warm up this weekend but we will have a front located in the Ohio Valley much of the weekend and of course this can bring big changes either side of the front and also trying to time out different waves coming through. We can use the rain but would love to see that at night if possible. We are getting into the time of year where the jet can ramp up towards morning and this can lead to a nice round of rainfall early. I have no ideal so far which day or days we will see the rain and I believe models are trying to get together but still have timing issues.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 2:21 pm
Today looks to be another day where our high came at midnight versus the normal daytime high that we usually see due to the typical diurnal swings that you get with temps. CVG should record their midnight reading which was 49 as the high since during the day, 43 looks to be about it. Temp is down to 41 now as of the 2pm reading.
Been snowy at my sons house all day with temps in the low 20's. He mentioned about an inch has fallen but just plain cold
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:12 pm
Opening day looks great and a nice warm up this weekend but we will have a front located in the Ohio Valley much of the weekend and of course this can bring big changes either side of the front and also trying to time out different waves coming through. We can use the rain but would love to see that at night if possible. We are getting into the time of year where the jet can ramp up towards morning and this can lead to a nice round of rainfall early. I have no ideal so far which day or days we will see the rain and I believe models are trying to get together but still have timing issues.
Good morning Tim! We still need to nail down timing issues but my best guess right now is for a small chance Sat (mainly north) then as the front comes back north as a warm front, a chance for everyone in the afternoon and evening on Easter., Then I think POPS ramp up at times Sun night thru Tues. Hoping to get an inch total thru Tues. Would be nice if we could get even more but I'd be thrilled with that. Also, severe wx is unclear this far out too.
Great Post Les and good morning. I agree with everything you mentioned and timing is key plus yes we must throw the chance for at least strong storms and maybe severe weather but a tad too early to figure that out. An inch of rain would be nice but would love to see closer to 2 inches.
Tim... the SPC has a severe risk out for Day 5 just to our West and then for Day 6 (Tues) we are in the risk so the SPC is seeing some potential next week.
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:28 am
Tim... the SPC has a severe risk out for Day 5 just to our West and then for Day 6 (Tues) we are in the risk so the SPC is seeing some potential next week.
I agree with that Les. Jet is rather strong and again probably some storms in the overnight hours and then once again later in the afternoon. Timing as always key plus where do we see the leftovers fizzle out in the morning and where the redevelopment fires up. Not a widespread outbreak but some chances. Hopefully it leads to more of a steady rainfall. Looks like after that we will have some full blown spring weather and I am ready for temps in the 60's and 70's. Btw a nice frost out here this morning.
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:28 am
Tim... the SPC has a severe risk out for Day 5 just to our West and then for Day 6 (Tues) we are in the risk so the SPC is seeing some potential next week.
I agree with that Les. Jet is rather strong and again probably some storms in the overnight hours and then once again later in the afternoon. Timing as always key plus where do we see the leftovers fizzle out in the morning and where the redevelopment fires up. Not a widespread outbreak but some chances. Hopefully it leads to more of a steady rainfall. Looks like after that we will have some full blown spring weather and I am ready for temps in the 60's and 70's. Btw a nice frost out here this morning.
I wonder if we could muster up some stronger storms north of the warm front until it passes. Something to monitor. Otherwise, the SPC has us out looked on Tues with the front coming back into the area.
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:28 am
Tim... the SPC has a severe risk out for Day 5 just to our West and then for Day 6 (Tues) we are in the risk so the SPC is seeing some potential next week.
I agree with that Les. Jet is rather strong and again probably some storms in the overnight hours and then once again later in the afternoon. Timing as always key plus where do we see the leftovers fizzle out in the morning and where the redevelopment fires up. Not a widespread outbreak but some chances. Hopefully it leads to more of a steady rainfall. Looks like after that we will have some full blown spring weather and I am ready for temps in the 60's and 70's. Btw a nice frost out here this morning.
I wonder if we could muster up some stronger storms north of the warm front until it passes. Something to monitor. Otherwise, the SPC has us out looked on Tues with the front coming back into the area.
I agree something we need to watch. Question Les and I know we had no frost advisory last night and we have a heavy frost this morning and my guess one should have been issued. Is there a certain date they quit issuing these in different locations.
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 7:28 am
Tim... the SPC has a severe risk out for Day 5 just to our West and then for Day 6 (Tues) we are in the risk so the SPC is seeing some potential next week.
I agree with that Les. Jet is rather strong and again probably some storms in the overnight hours and then once again later in the afternoon. Timing as always key plus where do we see the leftovers fizzle out in the morning and where the redevelopment fires up. Not a widespread outbreak but some chances. Hopefully it leads to more of a steady rainfall. Looks like after that we will have some full blown spring weather and I am ready for temps in the 60's and 70's. Btw a nice frost out here this morning.
I wonder if we could muster up some stronger storms north of the warm front until it passes. Something to monitor. Otherwise, the SPC has us out looked on Tues with the front coming back into the area.
I agree something we need to watch. Question Les and I know we had no frost advisory last night and we have a heavy frost this morning and my guess one should have been issued. Is there a certain date they quit issuing these in different locations.
The Frost / Freeze program for our forecast area has not started back up yet. Once ILN makes that decision I am sure there will be a PNS (Public Information Statement) issued. Typically, they will check with agriculture departments as to when that is. NWS LOU works closely with UK's AG Dept. Not sure if ILN uses Ohio State or some other entity?
Thanks Les and was not sure when program ended. I know some folks probably had some flowers out which again always best to wait until early May but since we have Easter coming up some folks like to get the house in great shape and sometimes this means having flowers outside.
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 8:27 am
Thanks Les and was not sure when program ended. I know some folks probably had some flowers out which again always best to wait until early May but since we have Easter coming up some folks like to get the house in great shape and sometimes this means having flowers outside.
Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1000 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023
...THE FROST AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED FOR THE 2023 SEASON...
The National Weather Service in Wilmington Ohio has discontinued
the frost and freeze program for 2023. Temperatures this morning
dropped below freezing for much of the region, ending the growing
season. Temperatures below freezing are also expected during the
morning hours of November 1 and November 2.
This will be the last statement that will be issued this fall
regarding frost and freeze concerns in our forecast area.
The frost and freeze program will resume at the start of the
growing season next spring.
They started it up on 4/13/23 last year. I would imagine that they will be starting it up earlier this year, but who knows.
Good Afternoon and a wonderful day for a ballgame. Starting Saturday and going into the middle of next week looks like a very busy period. Can we cash in with the several waves of low pressure that look to head through the area? Would love to see in the neighborhood of 2-3 inches by this time next week and its possible.
12Z GFS looks like an inch maybe 1.25" for the area. Heaviest amounts north, lighter to the south. I also like some of the timing that we have outlined here. Confidence is good in seeing showers north on Sat (dry south), then rain / storms Eastern afternoon and evening. Then more widespread coverage on Monday and Tuesday.
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:27 pm
12Z GFS looks like an inch maybe 1.25" for the area. Heaviest amounts north, lighter to the south. I also like some of the timing that we have outlined here. Confidence is good in seeing showers north on Sat (dry south), then rain / storms Eastern afternoon and evening. Then more widespread coverage on Monday and Tuesday.
Les if the CMC is correct we have precip all the way through Wednesday and a colder day in store. The gfs has been further north with the precip compared to the CMC and also the Euro which still has the afternoon data later. Again a little too early for precip totals but the chances for some decent rains at this time. If you end up on the wrong side of each wave coming through then yes totals can be lower than an inch and hopefully by Friday the models are getting closer to the truth. With several waves coming through one can be stronger than forecast and folks get hit rather hard and the next one can be weaker and you end up with less. Several pieces of energy so a more broad forecast total of rainfall is needed at the moment and hopefully can narrow that down and timing as well.
I do like the longer period of rainfall because this may give us a break from about April 4th-9th so the eclipse turns out with sunshine. Again way too early but I like the spacing at the moment
tron777 wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 12:27 pm
12Z GFS looks like an inch maybe 1.25" for the area. Heaviest amounts north, lighter to the south. I also like some of the timing that we have outlined here. Confidence is good in seeing showers north on Sat (dry south), then rain / storms Eastern afternoon and evening. Then more widespread coverage on Monday and Tuesday.
Les if the CMC is correct we have precip all the way through Wednesday and a colder day in store. The gfs has been further north with the precip compared to the CMC and also the Euro which still has the afternoon data later. Again a little too early for precip totals but the chances for some decent rains at this time. If you end up on the wrong side of each wave coming through then yes totals can be lower than an inch and hopefully by Friday the models are getting closer to the truth. With several waves coming through one can be stronger than forecast and folks get hit rather hard and the next one can be weaker and you end up with less. Several pieces of energy so a more broad forecast total of rainfall is needed at the moment and hopefully can narrow that down and timing as well.
CMC is much slower swinging the upper trough thru on Wed. It even has precip lingering into very early on Thurs too. I could see a lingering rain shower early Wed so I am willing to throw that in down the road if need be. We'll see if future GFS runs slow down more or not. The Euro too has been ending things on Tuesday so it'll be interesting to see if it slows down as well.
Les the NAO is still negative early in the week before it heads towards neutral later that week so this imo would mean a slower trough to move through. See what the Euro shows later today but that model has been a little stronger in terms of severe weather.
tpweather wrote: ↑Thu Mar 28, 2024 1:22 pm
Les the NAO is still negative early in the week before it heads towards neutral later that week so this imo would mean a slower trough to move through. See what the Euro shows later today but that model has been a little stronger in terms of severe weather.
I just checked the NAO since you mentioned it, and it is fairly negative right now, more then I thought, so going a bit slower maybe the way to go.
I do think that the CMC is probably too slow though. However, taking a model blend, it is not out of line to see rain early Wed morning. That would not shock me.
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Mar 27, 2024 6:12 pm
Opening day looks great and a nice warm up this weekend but we will have a front located in the Ohio Valley much of the weekend and of course this can bring big changes either side of the front and also trying to time out different waves coming through. We can use the rain but would love to see that at night if possible. We are getting into the time of year where the jet can ramp up towards morning and this can lead to a nice round of rainfall early. I have no ideal so far which day or days we will see the rain and I believe models are trying to get together but still have timing issues.
Hey Tim,
Yep, looks like it could be some possible rain delays for Easter weekend for our Redlegs. Also looks like some rain for Philly as the guys go there for a road trip early next week.
