July 2021 Weather Discussion

[cloudy72]

So now we’re talking! Had 1.24” earlier this morning in the 1:00-2:00 timeframe.

[Bgoney]

More cold news you won’t hear on MSM. Near record cold across South Africa:

“Cold spell in South Africa:Temperatures dropped to near freezing in the usually mild Port Elizabeth:+1.8C today (3 days ago the town surged to 31.6C),the all time record is -0.5C. In the next few days South Africa will experience a harsh cold spell with heavy frost.”


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Yep, thanks for reminding me,, I haven't updated incognito weather for a while, you have to dig pretty deep to find sensored cold related news, but rest assured the severe winter weather has not abated around the world. Covering a much, much larger area than the desert heat of the SW United States. Southern Hemisphere land masses in recent months — from South America to Australia, and from Southern Africa to New Zealand, wave after wave of powerful Antarctic polar air masses have been engulfing the lower latitudes. Antarctic is experiencing a severe record cold season with much above normal ice formation. Crop and livestock warnings have been a common occurrence in the forecasts for the above large areas and are forecast to continue. But alas we must pretend none of this is happening to counter balance a much smaller area of heat in comparison. More later.

[Bgoney]

Local weather is unchanged, 50% chances today and tomorrow, 20-30% Wednesday/Thursday before chance rise again for friday and especially the weekend with another cut-off low . Severe chances very low today/tomorrow with the exception if we get an extended period of sunshine late morning into early afternoon. Breif downpours of course with most of the showers.

[tron777]

Looks like most of the overnight was quiet, for me locally, other then a small line of showers that had moved thru within the last hour. Just a ground wetter there. Bgoney has the forecast well in hand. Same ole, same ole for us pretty much.

[tpweather]

Good Morning. A very quick downpour this morning so need to wait a little longer to mow. Every four days mowing heading into mid-July and when I mow the grass is high. Heat for July is going down in flames. This pattern has been stubborn to move and with rain chances most days any long term heat is out of the question. The main reason we even stay close to normal is because of the overnight lows. No changes in the short term and even if we get back to a more normal summer pattern the lush vegetation over much of the central USA will make it hard to get an extended heat wave before the month ends.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim... I agree. Any big heat or long lasting dry spell talk for July is dead. We'll see what August does. I keep hearing the talk of the heat coming back because of La Nina returning later in the year. I could see some heat East of the Apps for the East Coast thanks to a stronger Bermuda high but there will continue to be a weakness between that ridge and the Western US ridge. The OV is in the weakness between both 500 MB ridges. Until that changes, what you see is what we get.

[tron777]

So now we’re talking! Had 1.24” earlier this morning in the 1:00-2:00 timeframe.

Glad your Dome has finally broke Mike!

[Bgoney]

For the weekend models are now agreeing to blow the front through the OV Saturday night early Sunday, instead of stalling in the region. A bit early to know of this is correct.

[tpweather]

Interesting stat is a EF-2 tornado in Dexter,MO on July 10th. This is in the Paducah area of the nws. First EF-2 in July since 1971. Once you get into mid-July the tornado threat goes down but not out of the question. With the low pressure to our west there is a slight chance of a tornado to pop up and though not a outbreak but not zero chance either. If the sun comes out later today I would expect a good chance of some stronger thunderstorms late this afternoon and evening. Thursday and Friday could be dry but warm to hot and humid before the next front gets in here. How far south does the front go is key to the weekend forecast and at the moment Saturday looks wet but maybe just maybe we can get a drier day for Sunday but we know these fronts in mid-July tend to hang up more than models may show.

[tron777]

I don't see the avg to below avg temp regime going anywhere anytime soon. Climate normals for the next several weeks are at 86 / 66 so we're maxed out now for a while for averages, before we slide back the other way. As long as these fronts and upper level systems continue to dive in from the NW and until the look out West changes, things are not going to change here. It's a heck of a blocking pattern for the summer time that is for sure.

Seeing the models blowing the front thru is not a surprise. We've had a lot of frontal passages this season. More so blowing thru versus stalling out, which is typically the norm. We'll see! But a frontal passage and a nice weekend wouldn't surprise me. Same can be said if the front does hang up over the OV. That outcome wouldn't shock me either. I'd lean on the front passing for now to be honest.

[tron777]

Looks like some folks will get some rain this morning with the next small batch coming up the River. Getting dark again here.

[tpweather]

I don't see the avg to below avg temp regime going anywhere anytime soon. Climate normals for the next several weeks are at 86 / 66 so we're maxed out now for a while for averages, before we slide back the other way. As long as these fronts and upper level systems continue to dive in from the NW and until the look out West changes, things are not going to change here. It's a heck of a blocking pattern for the summer time that is for sure.

Seeing the models blowing the front thru is not a surprise. We've had a lot of frontal passages this season. More so blowing thru versus stalling out, which is typically the norm. We'll see! But a frontal passage and a nice weekend wouldn't surprise me. Same can be said if the front does hang up over the OV. That outcome wouldn't shock me either. I'd lean on the front passing for now to be honest.

Great Post Les and the reason fronts have been able to move through is the Bermuda High which usually tries to hang out over the Southeast USA has not been able to get a good hold which in turn makes it stronger. If the High can get a good hold then we will see an end to the fronts going to far south. Been wet over the Southeast USA as well so rain has been easy to come by down there as well. Models have the climatology in their computation and that is why you see in the longer terms models will tend to head towards what is normal for that time of year.

[tpweather]

Looks like some folks will get some rain this morning with the next small batch coming up the River. Getting dark again here.

Hey Les that dark cloud is just the one over my house lol.

[Bgoney]

I'm still amazed with the lack of thunderstorms for our area. I'm talking with a descent amount of lightning and winds. Sure we've a rumble or two with all the scattered showers bit even with all these high DPs and PWATs thunder has been lacking. Shear of course has been lacking and at times cape , combine these two inhibiting factors and we get low topped t-storms less than 25,000 ft into the atmosphere so they don't have that cold core to create alot of T and L

[tron777]

StormTalk! https://www.wave3.com/2021/07/12/goode- ... -blog-712/

[tpweather]

I'm still amazed with the lack of thunderstorms for our area. I'm talking with a descent amount of lightning and winds. Sure we've a rumble or two with all the scattered showers bit even with all these high DPs and PWATs thunder has been lacking. Shear of course has been lacking and at times cape , combine these two inhibiting factors and we get low topped t-storms less than 25,000 ft into the atmosphere so they don't have that cold core to create alot of T and L

I agree and had one early last week that was a true thunderstorm with thunder,lightning and very strong winds. But for the most part its been heavy rainfall.

[tron777]

Most of the better CAPE and Shear has been west of us and southwest of us so the better severe threat has been in those areas. We've been stuck in a pattern where there is just too much cloudiness and junk convection to get a true MCS going. By the time the action reaches us, it's in a weakened state and we get the leftovers so more of a heavy rain threat and that's been it as you guys have mentioned.

[tron777]

0.01" at CVG so far today, probably about the same here.

[Bgoney]

Moderate shower in Indian hill

[tron777]

Make that 0.02" now... Just had another light shower move thru.

[tpweather]

Had that morning quick downpour but since no rain but the grass is still wet. Humidity is high no sun to dry things up. Will try and mow on Tuesday but I can see the grass growing lol

[tron777]

Mine has bounced back nicely and will need to be mowed later this week.

[tron777]

No changes to be honest thru the end of July per the latest 12Z GFS run. Same ole, same ole that we continue to talk about. The heat will be East and West of us, and we're caught in between. Means an active pattern and avg to below avg temps. A few above avg days possible, but there won't be many.

[tpweather]

Just checking with the CVG stats and for the first 11 days of July we are averaging about 2 degrees below average. Getting rain and tons of cloudy to partly cloudy days will keep temps in check

[tron777]

CVG has seen rainfall on 6 out of the first 12 days of the month counting today so 50% of the time. That'll do a number on temps no matter what the time of year.