We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

[Trevor]

Hey Trev... even the off hour HRRR runs look good! The latest one, 9Z, has 3" for almost everyone and isolated 4" amounts where the weenie bands occur. IMO this should be a fun system and the highlight for February.

Doing a snowfall map update now. 2-4" for most. I will post shortly.

[tron777]

I forgot to post about the 6Z NAM. Eyeballing it, it looks like we get a heavy band of snow for all of the Tri-state / Metro area. Wish I could get to Accuwx pro and look at QPF right now. What's the snow map show?

[tron777]

Overnight thoughts from the boys:

Westerly mid level flow with mid level shortwave tracking from
the central Plains east-southeast across the Ohio Valley today.
Surface low to pass to our south thru the TN Valley this
afternoon into this evening.

Moisture to increase with favorable lift developing this
afternoon from west to east. P-type looks to be mainly snow with
perhaps a mix of rain and snow confined to northern KY for a
brief period this aftn.

Favorable axis of frontogenetic forcing develops into eastern
Indiana and western Ohio by 18Z and works east-southeast across
the area this aftn into early evening. This signal points to
the potential for enhanced banded snow. Model solutions -
especially the hi-res models solutions indicate a dual axis of
enhanced snow. One across the I-70 corridor where the thermal
profile lines up with favorable forcing and a second axis from
northern KY thru south central Ohio. Snow to liquid ratios are
more favorable north (around 15:1) with snow to liquid ratios
starting out around 7:1 across the south and then increasing to
13:1 this evening.

Model trends are generally higher with snow amounts and have
adjusted the forecast with up to 3 inches across the I-70
corridor. For the far southern band have up to 2 inches thru
evening. High confidence in snow across the entire area but
medium confidence in the location of the highest amounts.
Uncertainty exists due to the banded nature of the pcpn - so
slight areal adjustments to the these bands will affect the
axis of highest snow totals. Also, ground temperatures begin
warm but cool to freezing by evening, so impacts to roads will
be limited initially until better rates come into play
overcoming the warm ground.

Have issued a winter weather advisory for this afternoon thru
the evening for all but the far northern counties.

[fyrfyter]

10z HRRR shows heavy band right through the middle of Tri-State

IMG_0806.jpeg

[fyrfyter]

6z NAM

IMG_0807.jpeg

[Trentonwx06]

I forgot to post about the 6Z NAM. Eyeballing it, it looks like we get a heavy band of snow for all of the Tri-state / Metro area. Wish I could get to Accuwx pro and look at QPF right now. What's the snow map show?

[tron777]

Thanks gentlemen for posting the snow maps! Much appreciated. All systems go for this one and we are getting closer to the nowcasting phase after a bit of 12z guidance. Man... the last few runs of the HRRR are freaking gorgeous!

[Trevor]

Update. 2-4" across the board. I am less worried about my southern coverage area than I previously was.

[tron777]

Looking good Trev! Radar is starting to light up and look better too. You can see some light rain showers feeding into the snow over MO, Snow continues to expand in coverage in intensity as well over Central ILL. Then you have the back edge of the snow (deformation band) back across KS and Neb. Everything is moving ESE right towards AV Country. I definitely like what I am seeing not only on the models this morning, but also in reality.

[tron777]

I checked some of the local NWS Offices advisories and AFD's and this is what I found.

ILN - You already know 1-3"
LOU - 1-2"
IND - 2-3" with isolated 4-5" amounts in the heavier bands.

[tron777]

6Z Euro should be running. Anybody got the details on that? It won't be until 8am that I will be able to look at it myself.

[Trevor]

Here ya go, Lester.

[tron777]

Thank you Trev. Looking good!

[Trevor]

Info to go along with map...

[Trevor]

HRRR is advertising 1"+ per hour rates right around rush hour. Not good...

[tron777]

Info to go along with map...

I have only heard / seen thundersnow once or twice in the 40 some years I have lived in Burlington. That would be such a treat if it actually were to occur. I don't know if anyone will see it or not, but some data does suggest some weak instability and steep lapse rates to go along with the strong frontogenic forcing. Under a really intense band, I suppose it is possible. Since you do have a lightning tracker, if you see something, absolutely post it so we can keep an eye on it.

[Trevor]

Info to go along with map...

I have only heard / seen thundersnow once or twice in the 40 some years I have lived in Burlington. That would be such a treat if it actually were to occur. I don't know if anyone will see it or not, but some data does suggest some weak instability and steep lapse rates to go along with the strong frontogenic forcing. Under a really intense band, I suppose it is possible. Since you do have a lightning tracker, if you see something, absolutely post it so we can keep an eye on it.

Seeing (or hearing) thundersnow is just rare for any one individual in general as it is very isolated. HRRR's lightning product does show it across the area so it was added to the graphic as a possibility. Many posters saw thundersnow during that snow squall event last fall.

[tron777]

Info to go along with map...

I have only heard / seen thundersnow once or twice in the 40 some years I have lived in Burlington. That would be such a treat if it actually were to occur. I don't know if anyone will see it or not, but some data does suggest some weak instability and steep lapse rates to go along with the strong frontogenic forcing. Under a really intense band, I suppose it is possible. Since you do have a lightning tracker, if you see something, absolutely post it so we can keep an eye on it.

Seeing (or hearing) thundersnow is just rare for any one individual in general as it is very isolated. HRRR's lightning product does show it across the area so it was added to the graphic as a possibility. Many posters saw thundersnow during that snow squall event last fall.

I know it's rare and it's usually more common in stronger systems like Nor 'Easters or Lake Effect Snow events due to the instability coming from the Lake.

[tron777]

SPC has placed a general area of t-storms (non-severe) over SKY, TN and points SW from there. That tells me that this system should have a little kick to it.

[tron777]

9Z SREF:

CVG - 2.27"
HAO - 2.69"
ILN - 2.86"
MGY - 3.06"
DAY - 3.17"
CMH - 2.77"
ROD - 2.75"

[tron777]

12Z HRRR is coming in and I am noticing a later start time (using Cincy as a focal point) and a slower / stronger low pressure. From 6-10pm this evening should be exciting! This run has 2" for the Metro and up to 4" for the I-70 Crew.

[cloudy72]

This sure smells like an overachiever system to me.....

[Bgoney]

The later start is huge

[Trevor]

The later start is huge

Agreed.

[tron777]

This sure smells like an overachiever system to me.....

Been waiting for you to come out and play!