We Haven't Had Enough...Let's Get Screwed Again! Feb 16-17, 2024

[tpweather]

Great post Tim! This link is time sensitive, but it'll give you a good idea as to what's going on right now. This is a water vapor loop. You can see today's system passing thru which will eventually deliver the colder air. What sticks out to me like a sore thumb is the STJ. There is a lot of moisture coming in across Mexico and TX. I don't know how much of it we will tap into, since this storm is not a very strong one, but you would have to think that it should play some kind of a role with this storm. Finally... the last thing to point out on the W/V loop, is the energy over the Rockies. That is our system for tomorrow.


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/animwv.html

Les that is wonderful post and remember we are in mid-Feb when the GOM really starts to awaken and that is why the severe season usually starts along the gulf coast this time of year. Yes the STJ has been busy much of this winter but as we get closer to spring more moisture is able to move further north and just need something to bring it north like a storm getting stronger. We know the last system was a bust but I believe so many things we looked at never gave us that confidence even before the models moved the system 100 miles and of course last time dealing with a warm ground and even an atmosphere that needed help. This time yes the ground is still warm but hopefully it gets colder later today and the atmosphere may not have to work that hard in keeping much of the precip in a winter form.

[tron777]

Great post Tim! This link is time sensitive, but it'll give you a good idea as to what's going on right now. This is a water vapor loop. You can see today's system passing thru which will eventually deliver the colder air. What sticks out to me like a sore thumb is the STJ. There is a lot of moisture coming in across Mexico and TX. I don't know how much of it we will tap into, since this storm is not a very strong one, but you would have to think that it should play some kind of a role with this storm. Finally... the last thing to point out on the W/V loop, is the energy over the Rockies. That is our system for tomorrow.


http://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/SAT_US/animwv.html

Les that is wonderful post and remember we are in mid-Feb when the GOM really starts to awaken and that is why the severe season usually starts along the gulf coast this time of year. Yes the STJ has been busy much of this winter but as we get closer to spring more moisture is able to move further north and just need something to bring it north like a storm getting stronger. We know the last system was a bust but I believe so many things we looked at never gave us that confidence even before the models moved the system 100 miles and of course last time dealing with a warm ground and even an atmosphere that needed help. This time yes the ground is still warm but hopefully it gets colder later today and the atmosphere may not have to work that hard in keeping much of the precip in a winter form.

As is usually the case, we will need a heavy snowfall rate to overcome the warm ground, esp anything that falls before 6pm. I think this is doable in some locations where the better banding sets up. In areas where lighter snow fall rates occur, it'll be tough to get much more then an inch.

[Trevor]

12z Euro is nearly identical to 06z.

[tron777]

A touch lower on QPF from the 12Z Euro (6Z had 0.34") but still respectable. 0.29" for CVG. I'd take it and run!

[tpweather]

A touch lower on QPF from the 12Z Euro (6Z had 0.34") but still respectable. 0.29" for CVG. I'd take it and run!

Les this will be more on the 10-1 ratio as well and even at the end you could see and hour or so of 12-1 as cold air continues to feed into the system. So yes we may see a few hours of snow at 30 or 31 degrees but by the end of the system we may be down to 26-28 and will continue to fall overnight.. Depending on snow cover as well temps overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning may need to be lowered into the mid 10's

[tron777]

57 now at CVG with a gusty west wind. The front has just moved thru the area so that should stop the temps from rising too much more for today.

[tron777]

A touch lower on QPF from the 12Z Euro (6Z had 0.34") but still respectable. 0.29" for CVG. I'd take it and run!

Les this will be more on the 10-1 ratio as well and even at the end you could see and hour or so of 12-1 as cold air continues to feed into the system. So yes we may see a few hours of snow at 30 or 31 degrees but by the end of the system we may be down to 26-28 and will continue to fall overnight.. Depending on snow cover as well temps overnight Saturday into early Sunday morning may need to be lowered into the mid 10's

If we can get a 3"+ snow pack down, then the teens are certainly doable Sun morning with a clear sky and lighter winds. Lower 20s if we do not get a decent snow pack.

EDIT: Same with highs on Sat. 32 is possible with little to no snow. Upper 20s to around 30 if we get a nice pack down.

[dce]

There is a consensus in modeling that there will be an initial band of snow that breaks out along I-70 and north. This band should help the I-70 posters. The heavier band looks to hold off until later in the afternoon for folks south of I-70 into Kentucky. The I-70 crew should see a longer duration event, only a couple hours at most, but the band to the south should put down the best accumulations wherever that sets up.

[tpweather]

There is a consensus in modeling that there will be an initial band of snow that breaks out along I-70 and north. This band should help the I-70 posters. The heavier band looks to hold off until later in the afternoon for folks south of I-70 into Kentucky. The I-70 crew should see a longer duration event, only a couple hours at most, but the band to the south should put down the best accumulations wherever that sets up.

Great Post Doug and I believe the southern system will sort of grab the remaining moisture from the northern system as time goes on. Again yes folks on here including myself get excited about snow but last weekend that was never the case as there was just to many items that did not line up. This system does line up and back in the 60's and 70's we called these river runner storms because folks along and either side of about 30-50miles ended up with the highest totals. I know very few folks on here were around back then and again Mr. Tony Sands was your to go met.

[tron777]

There is a consensus in modeling that there will be an initial band of snow that breaks out along I-70 and north. This band should help the I-70 posters. The heavier band looks to hold off until later in the afternoon for folks south of I-70 into Kentucky. The I-70 crew should see a longer duration event, only a couple hours at most, but the band to the south should put down the best accumulations wherever that sets up.

I agree Doug. That band should be good enough for a general 1-2" for the I-70 Corridor. More is possible if the banding happens to set up more to the south. As you said, it is near or south of the River per the modeling we have seen today. I checked the Euro and HAO was bulls eyed with 0.32" of QPF but once you get to MGY around 0.24". With this system, it is all about location, location, location.

[tpweather]

I would expect the NWS locally and in Louisville to throw out winter weather advisories in their afternoon forecast. Yes 24 hours away but I believe that will be the case. I doubt Indy does since a higher criteria needed.

[CINCINNATI01]

The issue is we are still a day out tonight's runs will probably show a dusting

[dce]

There is a consensus in modeling that there will be an initial band of snow that breaks out along I-70 and north. This band should help the I-70 posters. The heavier band looks to hold off until later in the afternoon for folks south of I-70 into Kentucky. The I-70 crew should see a longer duration event, only a couple hours at most, but the band to the south should put down the best accumulations wherever that sets up.

I agree Doug. That band should be good enough for a general 1-2" for the I-70 Corridor. More is possible if the banding happens to set up more to the south. As you said, it is near or south of the River per the modeling we have seen today. I checked the Euro and HAO was bulls eyed with 0.32" of QPF but once you get to MGY around 0.24". With this system, it is all about location, location, location.

All that being said, I FULLY expect changes to what the modeling is showing. I-70 might end up with the shaft. Kentucky might get shafted. Totals will be higher than expected. Lower than expected. Something is going to change. That's been the trend 24 hours or less from an event this year. We are in the same pattern we have been. No reason to think last second changes won't occur.

[tron777]

There is a consensus in modeling that there will be an initial band of snow that breaks out along I-70 and north. This band should help the I-70 posters. The heavier band looks to hold off until later in the afternoon for folks south of I-70 into Kentucky. The I-70 crew should see a longer duration event, only a couple hours at most, but the band to the south should put down the best accumulations wherever that sets up.

I agree Doug. That band should be good enough for a general 1-2" for the I-70 Corridor. More is possible if the banding happens to set up more to the south. As you said, it is near or south of the River per the modeling we have seen today. I checked the Euro and HAO was bulls eyed with 0.32" of QPF but once you get to MGY around 0.24". With this system, it is all about location, location, location.

All that being said, I FULLY expect changes to what the modeling is showing. I-70 might end up with the shaft. Kentucky might get shafted. Totals will be higher than expected. Lower than expected. Something is going to change. That's been the trend 24 hours or less from an event this year. We are in the same pattern we have been. No reason to think last second changes won't occur.

The changes I am expecting are placement in the higher snow bands. I think the overall set up of this storm won't change all that much, unless the wave keeps on amplifying some more which is why the Euro has the higher totals to begin with. I mean there is a limit to how much this system can strengthen but we do have a nice baroclinic zone to work with and if you're going to overachieve, that is one ingredient that you need.

[tpweather]

Les we are on the exact same page concerning this system. I know gun shy after the model malfunction this past Sunday and Monday but I believe all systems go and we just wait and see where those higher totals show up. Longer term I will post more in the correct area but still believe models are having some problems and I will try and explains later today

[Trentonwx06]

Lets see what 18Z HRRR leading into Happy Hour and go from there.

[tron777]

Les we are on the exact same page concerning this system. I know gun shy after the model malfunction this past Sunday and Monday but I believe all systems go and we just wait and see where those higher totals show up. Longer term I will post more in the correct area but still believe models are having some problems and I will try and explains later today

59 now at CVG... can we hit 60? This is a very nice warm air mass that will be south of us come tomorrow. I just have a feeling something interesting might happen. I am not saying it is for us but somebody will get a nice band of snow that will make you break out the shovel. It maybe only a couple of counties wide, but there will be a couple of jackpot areas IMO. For the best snows... you want the rain / snow line to be like 50-75 miles south of you. Remember the old saying.... sometimes you have to smell the rain to see the snow? That couldn't be more true with this set up.

[tron777]

Lets see what 18Z HRRR leading into Happy Hour and go from there.

I'm already watching it and IMO, I looked at the radar and there is a nice little batch of snow over SD which is the beginnings of our developing storm. The HRRR showed less snow in SD when the model initialized versus what I am seeing in reality.

EDIT: The area of snow also looks to be a tad further north too on radar vs what the model is showing.

[tron777]

So far, the HRRR run looks to be a bit stronger / north of 12Z. Could be a nice run for I-70 Crew.

[tron777]

It also looks like the model is a tad slower overall with this system which is a good thing. That weenie band indeed is for the I-70 Crew on this run mainly a couple of rows of counties S of the interstate. Paging Doug and Mike...

[tron777]

15Z SREF continues a slow increase in snowfall amounts.

CVG - 1.53"
HAO - 1.70"
ILN - 2.13"
MGY - 2.00"
DAY - 1.80"
CMH - 1.54"
ROD - 1.55"

[tpweather]

So far, the HRRR run looks to be a bit stronger / north of 12Z. Could be a nice run for I-70 Crew.

What stands out to me is on the southern end of the system its more of a shower/thundershower output. This is why I boosted totals up because usually with this set up unless the storms are too strong some of that moisture should be fed into the system. I still the higher totals will be south of I-70 but again a little early to pinpoint where the higher totals may pan out.

[tron777]

So far, the HRRR run looks to be a bit stronger / north of 12Z. Could be a nice run for I-70 Crew.

What stands out to me is on the southern end of the system its more of a shower/thundershower output. This is why I boosted totals up because usually with this set up unless the storms are too strong some of that moisture should be fed into the system. I still the higher totals will be south of I-70 but again a little early to pinpoint where the higher totals may pan out.

Agreed Tim.... I have no idea where the heavier bands will be. Again, we may not know until game time.

[tpweather]

So far, the HRRR run looks to be a bit stronger / north of 12Z. Could be a nice run for I-70 Crew.

What stands out to me is on the southern end of the system its more of a shower/thundershower output. This is why I boosted totals up because usually with this set up unless the storms are too strong some of that moisture should be fed into the system. I still the higher totals will be south of I-70 but again a little early to pinpoint where the higher totals may pan out.

Agreed Tim.... I have no idea where the heavier bands will be. Again, we may not know until game time.

Les one thing I will watching with the later models is different types of precip which mainly would be sleet. Frz/Rn not a big concern but if we start seeing sleet show up more and more this usually indicates a stronger system.

[tpweather]

Indy NWS has a special statement and are moving totals higher with the highest towards Columbus and Bloomington. They have forecast 1-2 in the I-70 corridor and then like I stated before higher further south.