February 2024 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Cloudy in my part of the woods. Like how the models are starting to see the colder air in the long term and with plenty of energy floating around its going to be busy. Can we get snow in this upcoming pattern and sure we can but the timing as usual is key.

[Bgoney]

Seen a bunch of motorcycle and boat people on the roads today

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[tron777]

62 here 61 at CVG today so the clouds killed the 65+ pipe dream.

[tpweather]

62 here 61 at CVG today so the clouds killed the 65+ pipe dream.

Yes it did Les. I was hoping to get more sun but without that and the wind not as strong as yesterday out of the south you can only go so high this time of year. Still a nice day and one we may not see for sometime.

[tron777]

62 here 61 at CVG today so the clouds killed the 65+ pipe dream.

Yes it did Les. I was hoping to get more sun but without that and the wind not as strong as yesterday out of the south you can only go so high this time of year. Still a nice day and one we may not see for sometime.

No doubt Tim! It felt nice after work today.

[tron777]

GFS seems to be liking the 17-18th period for another potential phaser.

[winterstormjoe]

GFS seems to be liking the 17-18th period for another potential phaser.

Yeah Les, it's been hinting that for a few days now, but it looks like that same ole movie we keep seeing over and over again.

[tpweather]

GFS seems to be liking the 17-18th period for another potential phaser.

Yeah Les, it's been hinting that for a few days now, but it looks like that same ole movie we keep seeing over and over again.

Hey Joe and always good to see you post. The biggest items I see long term is a very busy pattern with both the polar jet and STJ getting rather busy. Sure we can get some winter weather with either but hopefully over the remainder of February we have at least a couple systems that phase. I still believe the best winter weather will be east of here and have not changed my tune on that but we will be in that area where we are cold but maybe not really cold and that is all we need to get winter weather in late February. Yes having systems at night is always better the later you get in the month but if we are able to tap the polar air then even daytime storms can produce snow. I still see chances of an ice storm later this month as well but again these are always tough to predict.

[airwolf76]

GFS seems to be liking the 17-18th period for another potential phaser.

Yes right around then or just after there is potential I saw. maybe a PDB #3 coming? lol there has been a few monsters right on or around Presidents day in the past. there is something about that time of the year

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 61, DAY 65 and CMH 63 today.

DAY stole CVG's 65.

[tpweather]

Good morning and a nice little dose of rainfall and one round of thunder. Will make this post about the extended outcome with thoughts on the upcoming storm in the proper place.

Cold is no doubt building in Canada but will it come into the USA. That answer is yes but how far south and east will this go and when. The STJ is moving fast and several systems in the pipeline. The cold will be sitting on the entrance ramp waiting for a way in and that is where we stand. A couple of ways this happens and one is with a strong storm that can bring the cold air southward and the second is enough spacing within the STJ which would let the cold come southward like maple syrup. Once you get the cold moving it will finally make it further south but we need that opening. First chance is late in the week or next weekend. Still not looking at any system beyond Monday/Tuesday as new patterns have problems where energy may be located but once we get past that system hopefully models will have a better handle on upcoming possible events.

How confident on a scale of 1-10 that the cold firmly makes into our area is an 8. The predicted AO is very negative and with a slightly positive PNA and also the NAO heading towards negative I like the future pattern. The MJO which I believe is in phase 7 and almost 8 looks to be in a weakening stage and that can mean it dives into the COD or goes into the colder phase 8-2. The mjo which has been a major factor over the past few weeks may be giving up its control and that is why I feel confident of a nice second half of February in terms of cold and hopefully winter like precip

Of course being later February into early March having snow on the ground more than 2-3 days is never easy with the sun angle however if you get a big snow then yes it can be on for several days though clearing pavement is easier with the noon time sun angle.

Looks very busy no matter what and we are due for a several week period of inclement weather as the winter so far besides that cold spell has been lets say boring

[tpweather]

NWS shows a high of 59 today and not sure that will happen and expect much of the day will be in the low 50's with a north/northwest wind this afternoon.

[Bgoney]

Frogs in my small pond have emerged and are having a loud good time

[tron777]

I've been up for a while. Was out running errands and it sure felt like spring this morning. 57 currently here.

[Bgoney]

Briefly hit 57 here , back down to a current 56

[tron777]

Need to slow that southern wave down more for the 17-18th. GFS has kind of lost that phasing idea that it once had. CMC has a bit of interaction and the Euro today totally got rid of the northern s/w and it's just a suppressed STJ wave now. The GEFS varies on timing, precip type and if there will be a storm at all. Anyway, the 17-18th is my nest time period that I am watching.

[tpweather]

The extended is very busy and trying to figure out a date on possible storms is almost impossible. There will be clippers with the polar jet that models usually pick up on about 2-3 days in advance unless we have a really strong one and the STJ is just loaded with energy. Get past Tuesday and hopefully we can figure out the next 5 days or so

[Bgoney]

Looks like CVG topped out at 58. Rain amounts

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[tron777]

I spiked to 59 today.

[tron777]

Graphic was made by NWS ILN:

Toasty Feb.jpg

[MVWxObserver]

Both CVG / DAY got to 58 and CMH 61 today.

[Bgoney]

Early evening temps and last 24 Hrs of record’s continuing

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[tpweather]

Good Evening and finally welcome to winter and really starting later Monday. Even though I believe the system late Monday and early Tuesday has some problems in getting snow accumulation I am still very bullish on winter weather through March 8th or so. Mother Nature almost always evens things out over time and I believe she is going to do that over the next 20-25 days or so. I really believe the PV will head into southern Canada and probably directly north of us which is a wonderful place in mid-late February. I believe the STJ will continue to be very busy. Still believe the best storms in terms of snow is further east but I am expecting over this period around 6 or so storms to have some impacts on our weather. Hopefully we can get 1 or 2 to phase earlier.

Again the forecast could bust but so many things are lining up and that is all you can ask. We are out of the milder phases with the mjo so that is a plus and many of the tellies we use are heading to phases that tends to bring us colder weather. Will we get snow and even with a great pattern you can be missed but chances are higher. Yes I understand the sun angle will be higher as we head towards March but we have had some decent snows in the last part of February and early March.

So hold tight and get ready and I will do everyone a favor and head to Wisconsin late this week and spend about 5 days and my gift is to bring the PV towards us lol. If I only had that power.

[snowbo]

Good Evening and finally welcome to winter and really starting later Monday. Even though I believe the system late Monday and early Tuesday has some problems in getting snow accumulation I am still very bullish on winter weather through March 8th or so. Mother Nature almost always evens things out over time and I believe she is going to do that over the next 20-25 days or so. I really believe the PV will head into southern Canada and probably directly north of us which is a wonderful place in mid-late February. I believe the STJ will continue to be very busy. Still believe the best storms in terms of snow is further east but I am expecting over this period around 6 or so storms to have some impacts on our weather. Hopefully we can get 1 or 2 to phase earlier.

Again the forecast could bust but so many things are lining up and that is all you can ask. We are out of the milder phases with the mjo so that is a plus and many of the tellies we use are heading to phases that tends to bring us colder weather. Will we get snow and even with a great pattern you can be missed but chances are higher. Yes I understand the sun angle will be higher as we head towards March but we have had some decent snows in the last part of February and early March.

So hold tight and get ready and I will do everyone a favor and head to Wisconsin late this week and spend about 5 days and my gift is to bring the PV towards us lol. If I only had that power.

I'm going to help. I'm heading to Michigan tomorrow so that definitely helps with any snow in Ohio. It won't snow in Michigan until I'm ready to leave.

[Trevor]

The globals continue to largely argue against any sustained cold pattern developing.