January 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

12Z CMC showing a touch of frz rain as well to begin Tues morning. It'll be interesting to see what the more hi res models show once we get closer. Even the 9Z SREF, if you look at precip type POP is showing some frz rain too.

I believe the closer we get to the event the more frz/rain will show up. If we were the southern end of the snow pack that is one thing but the snow pack is still in Tn so the warming uses up some energy to melt the snow but hard to get the colder air at the ground to move quickly. We are not trying to scare anybody at all but is more a heads up late Monday and early Tuesday travel and walking could be a little on the dicey side for several hours. Yes during the day it will turn to mainly rain but still need to watch any area that gets little sunshine because with temps going well below zero tonight the road temps are going to take a period of time before they reach above 32

Exactly Tim... I'm not saying it'll be as bad as what the RGEM showed but even a light glaze would mean icy spots on untreated roads, elevated roadways, bridges, your car, porch, driveway, sidewalks, and parking lots. We will warm up eventually and the ground will thaw out too. The Tues PM commute should just be wet. It is the early Tues AM commute that has my concern.

Even the Euro has 0.03" of QPF at CVG with surface temps right at freezing. The timing of when the precip arrives will be huge. The earlier it arrives, the worst things get. The later it arrives, the better chance we have to warm up. It will all come down to the timing as always with things in weather.

[tron777]

I looked at the Ensembles, Tellies, MJO etc and it is not pretty for snow lovers. Yes, I know the OP's are trying to show a little something potentially around the 29-30th but I would not buy into it at all. The Ensembles are showing a lot of ridging taking place across the country. The PNA is going to go positive but with a +EPO, +AO, and +NAO it means warm weather for much of Canada and the Lower 48. As we hit February, the PNA goes negative but with the other Tellies in an unfavorable phase for cold, we'll get the classic trough West / Ridge East pattern.

My original idea of late Jan / early Feb for the cold returning is dead. I do not think winter is done though. Let me make that perfectly clear. The colder pattern for snow chances is going to take longer then I thought to return. Could be Week 2 or Week 3 in February the way things are looking attm. So enjoy the milder and wet pattern that we have upcoming.

Now we do have a real SSW going on so hopefully that can help in disrupting the PV and get another -NAO to fire up. February does look to start warm but for how long is unknown. The second half of Feb should turn out to be colder then the first half the way I see things currently.

[tron777]

Enjoy this look as a lot of it will be gone next week.

ims2024019_usa.gif

[tpweather]

Winter storm watch already for parts of Arkansas for frz/rain late on Sunday through Monday afternoon. Expecting 1/4 to 1/2 inches which is a nice icing event. How much of that moisture makes it to us and like Les mentioned its all about timing on this one.

[MVWxObserver]

Like school delays, maybe there will be delayed openings of employers with re to the potential frz rain / mix early Tues.

Currently 14 here in G'ville.

[tron777]

Winter storm watch already for parts of Arkansas for frz/rain late on Sunday through Monday afternoon. Expecting 1/4 to 1/2 inches which is a nice icing event. How much of that moisture makes it to us and like Les mentioned its all about timing on this one.

ILN is talking about it now too.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NBM derived weather for Mon night has a not insignificant area in
CWA with a snow or wintery mix that is plainly not based in reality.
Thicknesses that would support a mix of snow are well into MI, and
through the whole of the overnight period. While surface temps
during the day could possibly tip to near 40 degrees in the far se
CWA, the rest of the region will be in the low to mid 30s during the
day. By evening, readings will drop to or below freezing for much of
the CWA and remain there until about 09Z Tues with a slight warming
to above freezing by daybreak. However, these temperatures measured
at 6` will not be indicative of what`s happening at the actual
ground level. Warm air without a significant wind is not enough to
scour out entrenched cold air.

All this being said, rain will become an increased likelihood by
daybreak Tuesday, especially over west central OH, east and se IN,
and along and west of the I-75 corridor. Being 60-72 hours out this
is by no means a solid forecast. However, the conditions are ripe
for a freezing rain event during the predawn hours of Tuesday. Will
trend the forecast in this direction and expect to increase this
potential with each passing morning/afternoon forecast update.

[tron777]

18Z NAM continues to bring in the rain by 3am. It has surface temps of 34 by then. I think that is a smidge too warm. And as ILN says that is 6 feet off the ground so the actual surface would be cooler.


18Z RGEM isn't as nasty with the frz rain as the 12Z run because the rain takes a bit longer to get here. This is still a couple of days out so much will change between now and then.

zr_acc-imp.us_ov.png

[tron777]

18Z GFS has around 0.04" of rain falling with a surface temp of 33 Tues morning.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 16, and both DAY / CMH 17 today.

[tron777]

17 here today.

[Bgoney]

I looked at the Ensembles, Tellies, MJO etc and it is not pretty for snow lovers. Yes, I know the OP's are trying to show a little something potentially around the 29-30th but I would not buy into it at all. The Ensembles are showing a lot of ridging taking place across the country. The PNA is going to go positive but with a +EPO, +AO, and +NAO it means warm weather for much of Canada and the Lower 48. As we hit February, the PNA goes negative but with the other Tellies in an unfavorable phase for cold, we'll get the classic trough West / Ridge East pattern.

My original idea of late Jan / early Feb for the cold returning is dead. I do not think winter is done though. Let me make that perfectly clear. The colder pattern for snow chances is going to take longer then I thought to return. Could be Week 2 or Week 3 in February the way things are looking attm. So enjoy the milder and wet pattern that we have upcoming.

Now we do have a real SSW going on so hopefully that can help in disrupting the PV and get another -NAO to fire up. February does look to start warm but for how long is unknown. The second half of Feb should turn out to be colder then the first half the way I see things currently.

Agree, when the cold returns depends on if the MJO can make it to the cold phases as it did with our current run of cold, if it dies in 6 or 7 arctic cold might be delayed further

[Bgoney]

ELnino continues its progress of weakening . SOI has been very positive over the last ten days

IMG_1229.jpeg

[dce]

18Z NAM continues to bring in the rain by 3am. It has surface temps of 34 by then. I think that is a smidge too warm. And as ILN says that is 6 feet off the ground so the actual surface would be cooler.


18Z RGEM isn't as nasty with the frz rain as the 12Z run because the rain takes a bit longer to get here. This is still a couple of days out so much will change between now and then.


zr_acc-imp.us_ov.png

Not as nasty for us, but look at the Ozarks. That could be a pretty significant ice storm if those kind of numbers verify.

[tron777]

I looked at the Ensembles, Tellies, MJO etc and it is not pretty for snow lovers. Yes, I know the OP's are trying to show a little something potentially around the 29-30th but I would not buy into it at all. The Ensembles are showing a lot of ridging taking place across the country. The PNA is going to go positive but with a +EPO, +AO, and +NAO it means warm weather for much of Canada and the Lower 48. As we hit February, the PNA goes negative but with the other Tellies in an unfavorable phase for cold, we'll get the classic trough West / Ridge East pattern.

My original idea of late Jan / early Feb for the cold returning is dead. I do not think winter is done though. Let me make that perfectly clear. The colder pattern for snow chances is going to take longer then I thought to return. Could be Week 2 or Week 3 in February the way things are looking attm. So enjoy the milder and wet pattern that we have upcoming.

Now we do have a real SSW going on so hopefully that can help in disrupting the PV and get another -NAO to fire up. February does look to start warm but for how long is unknown. The second half of Feb should turn out to be colder then the first half the way I see things currently.

Agree, when the cold returns depends on if the MJO can make it to the cold phases as it did with our current run of cold, if it dies in 6 or 7 arctic cold might be delayed further

I am expecting the MJO to continue moving and not dying despite what the models are showing. The models have been too weak with the MJO amplitude this winter and they also keep dying it off too quickly as well.

[tron777]

ELnino continues its progress of weakening . SOI has been very positive over the last ten days

Yes! Certainly looking like a La Nina could be coming on later this year once again. Would love for it to be a weak Nina for next winter. Coming off a strong Nino, that could exactly be interesting with an earlier start. It would be nice for a change to have a good December. It's been soooo long since we've had one.

[tron777]

18Z NAM continues to bring in the rain by 3am. It has surface temps of 34 by then. I think that is a smidge too warm. And as ILN says that is 6 feet off the ground so the actual surface would be cooler.


18Z RGEM isn't as nasty with the frz rain as the 12Z run because the rain takes a bit longer to get here. This is still a couple of days out so much will change between now and then.


zr_acc-imp.us_ov.png

Not as nasty for us, but look at the Ozarks. That could be a pretty significant ice storm if those kind of numbers verify.

No doubt Doug! The deeper moisture is certainly off to our West and SW for sure as the event unfolds. If the current trends hold, I could see the winter storm watch being upgraded to an ice storm warning down there.

[Bgoney]

-1 here for low , most of Ohio that stayed in clouds had lows in the 10-15 degree range . Much colder temps for clear skies Kentucky with lows ranging near zero to -10

[tpweather]

-1 here for low , most of Ohio that stayed in clouds had lows in the 10-15 degree range . Much colder temps for clear skies Kentucky with lows ranging near zero to -10

Good Morning Bgoney. Official low at CVG is -2. I thought we would be somewhat colder but -2 is cold enough. Looks like a very rainy week and we had quite a bit of rain last year in the winter but it helps more of course in the spring and summer. Heading back to the pattern in December with a few changes and one is the STJ may be a tad further north this time which shows this week with better chances of rain. Will that continue in week 2 is still up in the air. Second is grabbing hold on any cold air during the January Thaw. Going to be some cold air but most likely in southeast Canada and though systems can grab that cold how far westward will that extend. Yes we will be mild over the next 2 weeks but once in awhile we may see a system that is able to grab some cold and we see a day or two near normal before rising once again. Then will we get back the blocking that help us get into a winter like pattern. Probably yes and we will need to start looking for a bigger system or two in about 10-14 days that may and try to unlock the cold. Good thing the cold is over on this side of the planet in Alaska and hopefully that cold will not retreat to eastern and central Siberia as that is never good for us in terms of cold air and it takes time to get the cross polar air we need to deliver arctic air into the country.60
60
Back to rainfall and with some of the streams and smaller lakes frozen you will see a lot of flooding in those areas later this week but the rivers are a bigger situation and much more than just heavy rain as we need to see what is happening upstream as well. The best case is a slower rise in temps and rainfall that is light and though we do warm I am not expecting 60's but could see some lower 50's locally.

[Bgoney]

Yep -2 for CVG temp. Here’s some coldest January temps for CVG in the 2000s era

IMG_1233.jpeg

[tpweather]

Still looking to see if any frz/rain will happen locally. What makes this trickier is the temp above the ground will be above 32 but the ground temp below and well below in some places. So if we get some frz/rain drizzle its not the kind of ice events where the trees and power lines are covered with ice as they will be above 32. The problem is black ice and this is one that catches folks off guard when driving or just heading to the mailbox. I am rooting against any ice and a later return of rain helps. Further north and west has the greatest chance as they should see rain earlier but still not out of the woods here as models hopefully in the next 24 hours and especially the shorter term models get a better handle of this event.

[tpweather]

January so far is cold and wet. Around 4 degrees below normal for the temp and almost 50p/c above normal for precip. Snowfall though is average. With a mild spell coming up the temps for the month will end up near normal but precip well above normal and snowfall below.

[Bgoney]

NAM still bringing in moisture to parts of our area in that 4am-7am start time(tues)

IMG_1234.jpeg

[Trevor]

Still looking to see if any frz/rain will happen locally. What makes this trickier is the temp above the ground will be above 32 but the ground temp below and well below in some places. So if we get some frz/rain drizzle its not the kind of ice events where the trees and power lines are covered with ice as they will be above 32. The problem is black ice and this is one that catches folks off guard when driving or just heading to the mailbox. I am rooting against any ice and a later return of rain helps. Further north and west has the greatest chance as they should see rain earlier but still not out of the woods here as models hopefully in the next 24 hours and especially the shorter term models get a better handle of this event.

I agree with all of this. I just posted something very similar on my page.

The Tue AM commute may have some big problems. I expect ILN will issue an advisory to cover this. I do NOT like that the precip rates look light...

[tpweather]

Trev, I agree and models should continue to see this threat increasing. Again we will be on the southern end and any frz/rain will turn to rain but you head north and west I can see an extended period of frz/rain. Indy could end up with an ice watch before the day is over. Could see them getting .10-.25.Locally here probably under .10 but enough to cause headaches for the Tuesday morning rush

[Trevor]

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