Atlantic Hurricane Season Discussion

[Bgoney]

Officially a cane from NHC. Recon almost there for confirmation.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

[Bgoney]

So far no evidence of 74 mph sustained winds from recon , so officially not a hurricane yet , but whats a few mph between friends

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

[MVWxObserver]

11 PM update ~ Hurricane Elsa, top sustained wind of 75 mph, moving N at 12 mph, and pressure at 997 mb.

[Bgoney]

I still don't think it officially was a hurricane with recon evidence. A very brief spike in its look on radar and satellite prompted the NHC to call(guess) it a hurricane for people to take it more seriously. Just after that assumption, shear and dry air finally crushed Elsa and the Tampa Dome stays intact. Heavy rain bands and possible tornadoes, and winds in 50 -60 range currently

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 29
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA MOVING NORTHWARD ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE WEST COAST OF
FLORIDA...
...HEAVY RAINS AND GUSTY WINDS CONTINUE SPREADING INLAND ACROSS
THE WESTERN FLORIDA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.5N 83.5W
ABOUT 50 MI...75 KM SSW OF CEDAR KEY FLORIDA
ABOUT 70 MI...115 KM WNW OF TAMPA FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

[tpweather]

Good Morning and it looks like the tropical system will go inland around noon or so over northwest Florida. Yes it got to a CAT 1 but again always makes me wonder sometimes if the NHC does not get its lead from the climate folks. I thought it would get to the status as it did strengthen once it got into the Florida straits. Very small but compact storm so this can lead to some strong winds but over a narrow area.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

[MVWxObserver]

Elsa-related ...

From Tues ...

1820 UNK GENEVA GENEVA AL 3104 8588 TREE DOWN IN GENEVA. (TAE)

1130 1 SSW COLUMBIA COLUMBIA FL 3006 8270 TREE FELL ONTO HOUSE NEAR SR 47 AND RAVEN LN DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF AN EF0 TORNADO. (JAX)

1130 UNK 1 SSW COLUMBIA COLUMBIA FL 3006 8270 TREE FELL ONTO HOUSE NEAR SR 47 AND RAVEN LN. DAMAGE MAY HAVE BEEN TORNADIC IN NATURE. (JAX)

1135 UNK 3 N LAKE CITY COLUMBIA FL 3024 8264 TREE DOWN OVER ROAD ON I-10 WESTBOUND AT MILE MARKER 309. (JAX)

From Wed ...

1930 UNK 6 SSW DOWNTOWN JACKSONVILLE DUVAL FL 3026 8171 *** 1 FATAL *** IN THE ORTEGA NEIGHBORHOOD IN JACKSONVILLE ... THERE WAS A CONFIRMED FATALITY WITH A TREE FALLING ON TWO CARS ON ROOSEVELT BLVD. (JAX)

2048 UNK 5 S ARLINGTON DUVAL FL 3027 8162 STORM DAMAGE TO PRIVATE PROPERTY IN THE AREA OF PHILLIPS HIGHWAY AND BOWDEN ROAD POSSIBLY ASSOCIATED WITH A POTENTIAL TORNADO IN THE OUTER BANDS OF TS ELSA. (JAX)

2049 5 S ARLINGTON DUVAL FL 3026 8162 DOPPLER RADAR AND PUBLIC VIDEOS CONFIRMED A TORNADO IN JACKSONVILLE. THERE WAS PRIVATE PROPERTY DAMAGE NEAR PHILLIPS HIGHWAY AND BOWDEN ROAD. (JAX)

2049 4 S ARLINGTON DUVAL FL 3028 8161 RADAR INDICATED A DEBRIS BALL CONFIRMING A TORNADO IN CONCERT WITH VERBAL CONFIRMATION FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DAMAGE CONSISTENT OF A TORNADO. (JAX)

2110 UNK 5 S ARLINGTON DUVAL FL 3027 8161 TREES DOWN AND DEBRIS ON THE ROAD AT UNIVERSITY AND I-95. POWER IS OUT PARTS OF THE AREA. REPORTED BY MEDIA VIA TWITTER. (JAX)

2144 1 NNE SAINT MARYS CAMDEN GA 3077 8155 PRELIMINARY NWS DAMAGE SURVEY FOUND THE DAMAGE AT THE RV PARK INDICATED THE TORNADO WAS AN EF-2 WITH MAX SUSTAINED WINDS OF 128 MPH. THERE WERE MULTIPLE RVS FLIPPED OVER. (JAX)

2149 5 NW DUNGENESS CAMDEN GA 3079 8154 RADAR CONFIRMED A TORNADO NEAR HEAVILY DAMAGED RV PARK NEAR KINGSBAY NAVAL SUBMARINE BASE. THIS TORNADO WILL BE SURVEYED BY THE NWS IN JACKSONVILLE. (JAX)

2315 58 JEKYLL ISLAND GLYNN GA 3104 8142 (JAX)

0244 2 WSW STILLWELL EFFINGHAM GA 3237 8128 A NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURVEY CONFIRMED AN EF1 TORNADO NEAR STILLWELL. THE TORNADO DAMAGE PATH LENGTH WAS NEARLY 2 MILES AND WIDTH OF 100 YARDS. (CHS)

0249 UNK 2 WNW STILLWELL EFFINGHAM GA 3239 8129 *** 1 INJ *** SIDING RIPPED FROM A HOUSE AND SHED DAMAGE IN EAGLETON PLANTATION. TREE DAMAGE ALONG ROUTE 119. A VEHICLE RAN INTO A DOWNED TREE ON ROUTE 119 WHERE THE DRIVER SUSTAINED INJURIES. (CHS)

0351 UNK PORT ROYAL BEAUFORT SC 3238 8069 MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ... TREES ON HOUSES ... POWER LINES DOWN ... AND POWER OUTAGES. DAMAGE EXTENDED ACROSS THE RIVER INTO BURTON. POSSIBLE TORNADO. (CHS)

0502 UNK 2 NW EDISTO ISLAND CHARLESTON SC 3258 8030 LARGE TREES DOWN BLOCKING HIGHWAY 174 AT STEAMBOAT LANDING ROAD. LIKELY A TORNADO DUE TO RADAR DEBRIS SIGNATURE. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR. (CHS)

0945 UNK 5 S TURBEVILLE CLARENDON SC 3382 8003 CLARENDON COUNTY EM REPORTED POSSIBLE TORNADO DAMAGE ALONG OLD MANNING RD NEAR NEWMAN BRANCH RD IN NEW ZION. A WALL OF AN OUT-BUILDING PARTIALLY COLLAPSED. (CAE)

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 31
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Wed Jul 07 2021

...ELSA MOVING INTO SOUTHERN GEORGIA ACCOMPANIED BY VERY HEAVY
RAINS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.8N 83.4W
ABOUT 115 MI...185 KM WSW OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES

In another day or two we can say good bye to this one.

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A couple tornadoes possible

[cloudy72]

2049 5 S ARLINGTON DUVAL FL 3026 8162 DOPPLER RADAR AND PUBLIC VIDEOS CONFIRMED A TORNADO IN JACKSONVILLE. THERE WAS PRIVATE PROPERTY DAMAGE NEAR PHILLIPS HIGHWAY AND BOWDEN ROAD. (JAX)

2049 4 S ARLINGTON DUVAL FL 3028 8161 RADAR INDICATED A DEBRIS BALL CONFIRMING A TORNADO IN CONCERT WITH VERBAL CONFIRMATION FROM EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT FOR DAMAGE CONSISTENT OF A TORNADO. (JAX)

Have seen some video of this crossing the highway....looked like a fairly large tornado.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 33...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

Corrected warning section

...CENTER OF ELSA MOVES INTO SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
AND NEW ENGLAND STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...33.4N 81.3W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM WNW OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 210 MI...335 KM WSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1007 MB...29.74 INCHES

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA MOVES INTO NORTH CAROLINA...
...HEAVY RAINS CONTINUE...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...35.0N 79.7W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SW OF RALEIGH NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 20 MPH...31 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[MVWxObserver]

* Primary threats include...

A few tornadoes possible

Isolated damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible

[MVWxObserver]

From Thurs ...

1914 1 N FAIRFIELD HYDE NC 3556 7623 TORNADO REPORTED ON THE GROUND IN THE WHITE TAIL FARMS NEIGHBORHOOD OF FAIRFIELD ... MOVING NORTHEAST. (MHX)

2316 1 SE KINGS FORK CITY OF SUFFOLK VA 3678 7662 NUMEROUS LIMBS SNAPPED AND TREE TOPS TORN OUT. OUTBUILDINGS AT TRACTOR SUPPLY OVERTURNED. (AKQ)

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 35
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM EDT Thu Jul 08 2021

...ELSA SLIGHTLY STRONGER...
...HEADED FOR THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST....


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...36.3N 78.3W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM WSW OF NORFOLK VIRGINIA
ABOUT 300 MI...485 KM SW OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 37
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...ELSA RACING ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN NEW JERSEY TOWARD EASTERN LONG
ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS...
...FLASH FLOODING THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC AND
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...39.4N 74.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF ATLANTIC CITY NEW JERSEY
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM SW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Elsa Advisory Number 38
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
1100 AM EDT Fri Jul 09 2021

...CENTER OF ELSA OVER EASTERN LONG ISLAND...
...HEAVY RAINFALL CONTINUES TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...41.0N 72.1W
ABOUT 10 MI...20 KM WSW OF MONTAUK POINT NEW YORK
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM W OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 31 MPH...50 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB...29.53 INCHES


The flooding in the NE, has been pretty bad. Saw some pictures out of the NYC area yesterday.

[tron777]

Good bye Elsa!

BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Elsa Advisory Number 39
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052021
500 PM AST Fri Jul 09 2021

...ALL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS FOR THE NEW ENGLAND COAST HAVE BEEN
DISCONTINUED...
...HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST
US THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...43.0N 69.5W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM ENE OF BOSTON MASSACHUSETTS
ABOUT 65 MI...100 KM SE OF PORTLAND MAINE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 35 MPH...56 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES

[tron777]

Prelim confirmed tornadoes produced by Elsa:

ElsaTornadoes.png

[Bgoney]

Waves of dust picked up over the past couple of days have already reached the Caribbean and spread through the region.
And a new wave should reach it by July 18 or 19.

aerosol-forecast-00z-july-18-2021-bg.jpg

aerosol-forecast-15z-july-13-2021-bg.jpg

[tron777]

Got a 50/50 shot of Freddie developing off the SE Coast but the window is short:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2