January 2024 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Forgot to post here with the two other threads with the upcoming systems. I believe the models will get colder after next weeks storm. Models are terrible with really cold air and always has and this is what I expect this time. More snow cover to the northwest after next weeks storm plus more storms to factor in afterwards. Getting these highs in Canada to exceed 1040 and some even showing 1050 means cold air coming this way. How cold and again not sure yet but lets say many days from mid-month until the end of January will be below normal.

Models to me keep going back and forth. That includes the Ensembles. Not sure if it's due to the MJO or something else, but longer term guidance IMO is struggling a bit right now. I am still going with my earlier thoughts of a colder and more active pattern. Storm tracks will of course be determined as we go along. Once things for certain, it is going to be active. Hopefully we can catch one of these STJ waves with some cold air in place.

[fyrfyter]

I don’t think the models are handling the pattern change well at all. They are all over the place, run to run.

Hopefully some sampling and then after this first one moves through, it will be a little bit calmer on the huge “wobbles”.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and yes its early but you know when you get a certain age sleeping 5 hours is about the max at one time. Finally getting an extreme cold warning in western Canada. We usually see several of these each winter but since the coldest of air was on the other side of the earth that has not happened. This also tells me the coldest or air is starting to be on this side and we should be able to cash in on this cold over the second half of January,

[tron777]

The overnight OP GFS and its ensemble looked cold and potentially snowy at times too in the extended range. The EPS was even better! Hope to see that hold.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and yes its early but you know when you get a certain age sleeping 5 hours is about the max at one time. Finally getting an extreme cold warning in western Canada. We usually see several of these each winter but since the coldest of air was on the other side of the earth that has not happened. This also tells me the coldest or air is starting to be on this side and we should be able to cash in on this cold over the second half of January,

Just to add a little more info we are starting to see temps in the northwest terr heading below the -40 mark. Would not be surprised if this gets colder and we see temps at -50 or lower over the next week.

[tron777]

Good Morning and yes its early but you know when you get a certain age sleeping 5 hours is about the max at one time. Finally getting an extreme cold warning in western Canada. We usually see several of these each winter but since the coldest of air was on the other side of the earth that has not happened. This also tells me the coldest or air is starting to be on this side and we should be able to cash in on this cold over the second half of January,

Just to add a little more info we are starting to see temps in the northwest terr heading below the -40 mark. Would not be surprised if this gets colder and we see temps at -50 or lower over the next week.

We should be adding snow cover to our NW as well as time goes on which will help us out big time down the road with regards to getting the cold air into the OV for the STJ to work with. This continues to be my expectation going forward. I truly like that I am seeing for January as a whole and that thought has not changed in the least. I've been feeling this way about January since before Christmas.

[winterstormjoe]

Good Morning and yes its early but you know when you get a certain age sleeping 5 hours is about the max at one time. Finally getting an extreme cold warning in western Canada. We usually see several of these each winter but since the coldest of air was on the other side of the earth that has not happened. This also tells me the coldest or air is starting to be on this side and we should be able to cash in on this cold over the second half of January,

Just to add a little more info we are starting to see temps in the northwest terr heading below the -40 mark. Would not be surprised if this gets colder and we see temps at -50 or lower over the next week.

Hey Tim, I know what you mean by the less sleep these days as we get older!

I always like reading your temp analysis for Siberia and NW CA, I've also noticed some of the cross polar flow showing up on the GFS. True Arctic air looks to finally move into our region after the cutter around the 15th and actually spreads to the Gulf coast states for a few days. I've noticed on a few of the runs where the trough wants to elongate across the lower 48 after the 18th or so (long way out), but I keep expressing my point that these pieces of energy will hopefully move just south of us in the STJ to give us some snow love.

[tpweather]

Hey Joe,hope you are having a wonderful new year. The sleep thing is horrible but part of aging. I noticed a few weeks ago how the cold was moving from western Siberia to eastern Siberia and then into Alaska and of course finally into western Canada. I watch this every year and it helps in give us an ideal if some long term cold may invade the lower 48. Of course last year the cold after December stayed mainly out west but this year with the correct blocking I believe the central and eastern USA will do fine for several weeks. How cold is still too early but like I mentioned models never quite get the cold correct especially if we get a decent snow pack which is looking more and more likely over the next few weeks plus we will be nearing the coldest time of the year.

[tpweather]

With the polar air entering the picture and the STJ busy models are going to be throwing out tons of changes concerning storms so dates this far in advance will be hard to judge. Really starting this weekend and I believe lasting through the entire month of January the pattern itself is above normal in terms of us locally getting winter weather and that's all you can ask.

[tron777]

After the Labomba system... the boundary continues to be further to the SE and with continued STJ waves... it is only a matter of time before we get a snow storm. I am feeling good about the upcoming pattern folks over the next few weeks.

[winterstormjoe]

After the Labomba system... the boundary continues to be further to the SE and with continued STJ waves... it is only a matter of time before we get a snow storm. I am feeling good about the upcoming pattern folks over the next few weeks.

Les, the snow wienie in me is starting to feel much better compared to a year ago, actually compared to the last few Januarys!

I just hope it's all snow and not a dreaded ice storm, someone on here mentioned that back in December! Ugh!

[tron777]

After the Labomba system... the boundary continues to be further to the SE and with continued STJ waves... it is only a matter of time before we get a snow storm. I am feeling good about the upcoming pattern folks over the next few weeks.

Les, the snow wienie in me is starting to feel much better compared to a year ago, actually compared to the last few Januarys!

I just hope it's all snow and not a dreaded ice storm, someone on here mentioned that back in December! Ugh!

Trev did. That was one of his bold predictions in his winter outlook. I am tired of the sleet fests we've seen over the years as well as ice storms. I am right there with you Joe. The risk is always there because of our geographical location. I'll take all snow or a cold rain thanks very much. I do like what I continue to see in the extended range though for snow lovers. As usual, we shall see!

[tron777]

A cold and frosty night tonight with lows in the 20 to 25 degree range for most areas. A few upper teens in the usual colder rural valleys is possible. Sunny to start with increasing clouds later in the day ahead of our weekend mess. Expecting highs tomorrow in the U30s to L40s across most of the region.

[tron777]

19 currently IMBY...

[tpweather]

Good Morning and love weather around the world and this past Sunday and Monday parts of Norway with over 2 feet of snow near the coast. Yes they get plenty of snow but this shut down quite a few places. Parts of Sweden had their coldest temp since 1999.

What we have seen this season in Europe and Asia has been these spokes of really cold air combined with the STJ and you get these very heavy snows. Will this happen in North America this season and I believe the odds are high. Where exactly is no way of knowing yet but trends are trends and with the coldest of air heading to or already on this side watch out the 2nd half of January.

[tron777]

Good Morning and love weather around the world and this past Sunday and Monday parts of Norway with over 2 feet of snow near the coast. Yes they get plenty of snow but this shut down quite a few places. Parts of Sweden had their coldest temp since 1999.

What we have seen this season in Europe and Asia has been these spokes of really cold air combined with the STJ and you get these very heavy snows. Will this happen in North America this season and I believe the odds are high. Where exactly is no way of knowing yet but trends are trends and with the coldest of air heading to or already on this side watch out the 2nd half of January.

I totally agree Tim.... wonderful post! If that strong NAO block is real as we approach mid month, to go along with the strongly -AO (PV located near James Bay, Canada) and even the -EPO too.... the models showing cutters should be incorrect. After La Bomba, future systems should be tracking more favorably for us IMO. Let's see how things look over the next week esp after La Bomba gets out of the way. If my thoughts here are correct, we should have several snow systems to track coming out of the STJ tracking SE of us to make us all happy snow weenies! Some of these cutters showing up after La Bomba make no sense to me when you look at the 500 MB upper level pattern.

[tron777]

Oh and with regards to the MJO, at this time, I am not concerned if it gets into the warmer phases. If the strong blocking that I just mentioned actually materializes, it should override the warm MJO signal.

[tpweather]

Les you are correct and models always and I mean always have problems with really cold air in this latitude. They get corrected usually just a few days in advance. Getting snow cover over to the northwest over the next week will help aid the cold as well.

[tpweather]

Oh and with regards to the MJO, at this time, I am not concerned if it gets into the warmer phases. If the strong blocking that I just mentioned actually materializes, it should override the warm MJO signal.

Exactly Les!!!

[tron777]

Les you are correct and models always and I mean always have problems with really cold air in this latitude. They get corrected usually just a few days in advance. Getting snow cover over to the northwest over the next week will help aid the cold as well.

We may have to take one for the team here Tim with the La Bomba system but it will add a nice swath of snow to our NW for future systems to work with. We should see a nice storm as we approach mid month tracking along the southern edge of the incoming arctic air mass. IMO in the next 7-10 days, we should be tracking a legit snow storm for us if my thoughts end up being correct.

[MVWxObserver]

Yesterday CVG reached 37, DAY 35 and CMH 33.

[Microburst]

I'm back! I will be posting more soon!

I'm hoping we get a snowstorm in January.

Sure hope to see more out of you Daniel! Perhaps, you are the good luck charm that we need!

Hahaha! I will be posting soon! I've been busy lately. I have Weather Bell models to look at. I love forecasting! :D I hope you and everyone else are doing well!

[tron777]

I'm back! I will be posting more soon!

I'm hoping we get a snowstorm in January.

Sure hope to see more out of you Daniel! Perhaps, you are the good luck charm that we need!

Hahaha! I will be posting soon! I've been busy lately. I have Weather Bell models to look at. I love forecasting! :D I hope you and everyone else are doing well!

Doing good man! We are getting busy on here tracking systems and cold air. Buckle up!

[MVWxObserver]

I'm back! I will be posting more soon!

I'm hoping we get a snowstorm in January.

Sure hope to see more out of you Daniel! Perhaps, you are the good luck charm that we need!

Hahaha! I will be posting soon! I've been busy lately. I have Weather Bell models to look at. I love forecasting! :D I hope you and everyone else are doing well!

Great to see you again, Daniel!

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 38, DAY 37 and CMH 36 today.