1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

[airwolf76]

cool cloudy and calm this morning. just one of those morning you can almost create a snowflake if you try hard enough, can sense something building in the near future , the table is being set

[tron777]

9Z SREF plume for CVG shows 0-2" for the majority of the members. The mean is 0.72" So we lost those silly weenie members from yesterday in other words which makes sense. Mean QPF is 0.51" You might be thinking, why the low snow amounts then? It's the temps... 33 to 35 degrees is where the majority of members are so "white rain" in other words is what the model is showing.

[tron777]

12Z HRRR is coming in stronger / further north as well when compared to its 6Z run. Nice band of snow showing up for folks N of the River. The primary low is showing up in TN again too. We'll see what the 12Z NAM does here soon.

[tpweather]

9Z SREF plume for CVG shows 0-2" for the majority of the members. The mean is 0.72" So we lost those silly weenie members from yesterday in other words which makes sense. Mean QPF is 0.51" You might be thinking, why the low snow amounts then? It's the temps... 33 to 35 degrees is where the majority of members are so "white rain" in other words is what the model is showing.

Hey Les and this has been showing up for awhile and the amounts in Indy have been going up while we are heading downward. I still believe its how hard does the precip fall to get a decent snow. Give me 4 hours of a moderate snow and I will be happy. I agree about the temp being the problem but not sure models take into account a heavier burst of precip can of course give us snow but also lower the temps early Saturday morning. Still a work in progress my guess this may be the case even on Friday.

[tron777]

9Z SREF plume for CVG shows 0-2" for the majority of the members. The mean is 0.72" So we lost those silly weenie members from yesterday in other words which makes sense. Mean QPF is 0.51" You might be thinking, why the low snow amounts then? It's the temps... 33 to 35 degrees is where the majority of members are so "white rain" in other words is what the model is showing.

Hey Les and this has been showing up for awhile and the amounts in Indy have been going up while we are heading downward. I still believe its how hard does the precip fall to get a decent snow. Give me 4 hours of a moderate snow and I will be happy. I agree about the temp being the problem but not sure models take into account a heavier burst of precip can of course give us snow but also lower the temps early Saturday morning. Still a work in progress my guess this may be the case even on Friday.

Agreed Tim... the rate of precip is absolutely going to be key for everyone on the forum with this system. That has not changed one bit. The faster this system moves in with the initial wave of precip, the better since it will still be dark or early in the morning at any rate. I think that if we see that occur, as well as getting the primary low into NE TN before it falls apart and gives way to the EC Low, we should be in good shape to receive the forecasted snowfall amounts that we all have put out there previously.

[tron777]

I don't have any complaints really after the seeing the 12Z NAM. The primary isn't quite as strong or as far north as some of the other models but it's the same basic idea which is the point.

[Trevor]

Curious to see if the GFS shifts north as well.

[Trevor]

NAM, HRRR, and SREF in the more northern camp.

[Trevor]

GFS keeps the 1-3" bullseye right over the tri-state.

[tron777]

GFS keeps the 1-3" bullseye right over the tri-state.

That looks to be a good range with this system Trev. Really no need to change anything forecast wise IMO. Lock it in!

[tron777]

QPF of 0.17" from the GFS for CVG on Sat

EDIT: IMO the bulk of it falls early in the morning so that should help with grassy accum.

[tpweather]

QPF of 0.17" from the GFS for CVG on Sat

EDIT: IMO the bulk of it falls early in the morning so that should help with grassy accum.

I agree Les and yes some slush on the untreated roadways. By mid-afternoon the streets will be fine and you will see the snow melting off the trees which should do well in this type of wet snow.

[Trevor]

Adjusted the 1-3" band further to the north and narrowed it. Removed measurable snow from the far south/southeast. For transparency, I have attached all maps through my forecast process to show changes.

[tron777]

I concur buddy! Looks good! 12Z CMC I think also fits the bill.

[airwolf76]

good early call Trevor ... what do you think for my area?

[BookNerdCarp]

Adjusted the 1-3" band further to the north and narrowed it. Removed measurable snow from the far south/southeast. For transparency, I have attached all maps through my forecast process to show changes.

Once in the bullseye and now in the outhouse.....thats how we roll in the SE

[tron777]

I'm not sure what's up with the Euro today but its solution looks weak and disjointed with the precip shield. It's an outlier and I'm going to ignore it. It looks nothing like the rest of the guidance that I have seen today. Much weaker / south with the SLP as well.

[tron777]

Latest thinking from the boys:


.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The high will move east and out of the region on Friday. Clouds
will continue to increase through the day ahead of the next
weather system that will enter before daybreak Saturday. Friday
highs will range from the mid-upper 30s north to the lower 40s
south. Lows will drop to the upper 20s in the northeast to lower
30s in the southwest.

Snow will become more likely through the later overnight hours,
with a quarter to half inch possible outside of central Ohio
where it will not likely have started by daybreak. The higher
amounts of a half inch should be concentrated in east central
Indiana (Richmond) and western west central Ohio (Celina).

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pcpn will be ongoing at the start of the Long Term period but
should taper off from the west later Saturday morning and into
the afternoon as the better mid level energy shifts east of our
area. Pcpn will likely be mainly snow or a rain/snow mix across
our south Saturday morning, but should transition over to more
rain in the south and a rain/snow mix in the north through late
morning and into the afternoon before ending. Total snow
accumulations for this event look to be mainly less than an
inch. Highs on Saturday will range from the mid 30s north to
around 40 degrees across our south.

A secondary mid level short wave will lift northeast across the
Ohio Valley Saturday night into Sunday morning. This will bring
additional chances for some rain and snow. Some minor
accumulations (less than a half inch) will be possible with this
across mainly our northern areas. Lows Saturday night will be
in the low to mid 30s with highs on Sunday again in mid 30s
north to around 40 degrees in the south.

[tron777]

18Z RGEM looks good for the Tristate. 0.25" of QPF to work with. 18Z NAM only about 0.12" for Sat and 0.11" on Sun. (That is for CVG).

[dce]

18Z RGEM looks good for the Tristate. 0.25" of QPF to work with. 18Z NAM only about 0.12" for Sat and 0.11" on Sun. (That is for CVG).

18z HRRR looks pretty good as well. Even the I-70 crew.

[tron777]

18Z GFS is a little weaker / SE versus the 12Z run. Precip wise, it gives CVG 0.20" so the QPF is still decent.

[tron777]

Looking at the current picture going into the weekend and we have a broad area of low pressure over New Mexico this evening providing mountain snows and valley rains over NM, the TX Panhandle and getting into SE Colorado as well. This is just one of the pieces of energy. We have a northern piece associated with the polar jet in West Central Canada dropping to the SE. If you look at the water vapor loop, you can see what I am talking about here. Link is time sensitive: https://www.iweathernet.com/satellite-images-and-loops

Latest pressure falls indicate that the southern piece will organize a new low over S Texas tonight and the northern piece should be dropping SE from Canada into N MN. We should begin to see (tonight and tomorrow) SE flow from the Gulf at the 925-850 MB levels into Texas increasing the moisture down there in that area. Meanwhile, once we see the southern low become the primary low, it should develop and track NE into the TN Valley Sat morning bringing with it, the wave of accumulating snow to the OV. That low will weaken and give way to the EC Low during the day on Saturday. A secondary piece of energy will drop into the trough to being us rain / snow showers on Sunday as well.

This is kind of how I see this system playing out. I still think an inch or two of slushy snow is possible for us. If you can get to the 3" mark, I'd consider yourself lucky. If there will be any road issues, they will be late Fri night into early Sat morning as that is when the heaviest precip will move thru and temps will be at their coldest point... 32-36 degree range depending on the rate of precip that falls. The heavier the better. Once things lighten up, we will see light rain / drizzle Sat afternoon and everything will be just fine for traveling. I'm not expecting any issues for Sunday at this point since the precip will be much lighter and temps will be marginal as well so roads should be just wet.

[tpweather]

Looking at the current picture going into the weekend and we have a broad area of low pressure over New Mexico this evening providing mountain snows and valley rains over NM, the TX Panhandle and getting into SE Colorado as well. This is just one of the pieces of energy. We have a northern piece associated with the polar jet in West Central Canada dropping to the SE. If you look at the water vapor loop, you can see what I am talking about here. Link is time sensitive: https://www.iweathernet.com/satellite-images-and-loops

Latest pressure falls indicate that the southern piece will organize a new low over S Texas tonight and the northern piece should be dropping SE from Canada into N MN. We should begin to see (tonight and tomorrow) SE flow from the Gulf at the 925-850 MB levels into Texas increasing the moisture down there in that area. Meanwhile, once we see the southern low become the primary low, it should develop and track NE into the TN Valley Sat morning bringing with it, the wave of accumulating snow to the OV. That low will weaken and give way to the EC Low during the day on Saturday. A secondary piece of energy will drop into the trough to being us rain / snow showers on Sunday as well.

This is kind of how I see this system playing out. I still think an inch or two of slushy snow is possible for us. If you can get to the 3" mark, I'd consider yourself lucky. If there will be any road issues, they will be late Fri night into early Sat morning as that is when the heaviest precip will move thru and temps will be at their coldest point... 32-36 degree range depending on the rate of precip that falls. The heavier the better. Once things lighten up, we will see light rain / drizzle Sat afternoon and everything will be just fine for traveling. I'm not expecting any issues for Sunday at this point since the precip will be much lighter and temps will be marginal as well so roads should be just wet.

Great Post Les and the Sunday piece is coming in a tad earlier than I expected so I agree that has come in lighter though folks well to the north could see a little accumulation but nothing that will cause problems. This is the appetizer for the rest of the month and hopefully I don't get a bad taste in my mouth

[tron777]

Tim.... if you get a bad taste in your mouth, then we all do LOL I am stoked for January of 2024! We will be busy tracking on this forum over the next several weeks. This weekend system is only the beginning to get us warmed up!

[tron777]

18Z Euro gives CVG 0.15" on Sat of QPF.