July 2021 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Humidity continues to drop... Dew at CVG is now a comfy 57. Nice NE wind too.

[tpweather]

Les and Bgoney, I understand exactly where you guys are coming from in terms of possible heat in the extended. If the current pattern continues to deliver rain every 3-4 days it is almost impossible to get a heat wave going. Vegetation will thrive and as we have seen in the past very hard to get any long term heat. The ridge over the northwest has been out of the ordinary not only because of the extreme heat but how long it has gone on. The tropics which sometimes slows down the pattern is rather progressive and that is helping in bringing cool fronts through the area where many times in summer they fade out before even arriving in our area. So I agree through the middle of the month no signs at all for an extended period of 90 degree weather and beyond I will look at the ridge out west to see if it weakens or moves further east and what happens in the tropics.

[tron777]

Les and Bgoney, I understand exactly where you guys are coming from in terms of possible heat in the extended. If the current pattern continues to deliver rain every 3-4 days it is almost impossible to get a heat wave going. Vegetation will thrive and as we have seen in the past very hard to get any long term heat. The ridge over the northwest has been out of the ordinary not only because of the extreme heat but how long it has gone on. The tropics which sometimes slows down the pattern is rather progressive and that is helping in bringing cool fronts through the area where many times in summer they fade out before even arriving in our area. So I agree through the middle of the month no signs at all for an extended period of 90 degree weather and beyond I will look at the ridge out west to see if it weakens or moves further east and what happens in the tropics.

Good morning Tim... Great post! This is a topic that we will need to re-visit in the coming weeks to see when or if we get that change. The longer this pattern lasts, the tougher it will be to break.

[tron777]

This is looking better! Dew you feel like we Dew?

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[tpweather]

Just trying to see anything on the models that could mean a pattern change. Again these can be small changes that end up being big changes if they happen. The only thing I see on the models is the thermal low that usually resides over the southwest is showing up over the next 10 days. This is a mainstay during the summer and if true then cooler air should be allowed to flow into the northwest. Again not sure if this will play out and my guess models will tend to lean that way since in most years we have that thermal low over the southwest during the latter part of spring and early part of summer.

[tron777]

Just trying to see anything on the models that could mean a pattern change. Again these can be small changes that end up being big changes if they happen. The only thing I see on the models is the thermal low that usually resides over the southwest is showing up over the next 10 days. This is a mainstay during the summer and if true then cooler air should be allowed to flow into the northwest. Again not sure if this will play out and my guess models will tend to lean that way since in most years we have that thermal low over the southwest during the latter part of spring and early part of summer.

This is a good observation Tim. I've seen that a couple of times before this summer already. What has been happening is, that once we get closer, that supposed change is a phantom and it never comes. The ridge re-builds out West and then we get a front in here. Not saying that'll be the case this go around, but something to watch and consider down the road. I am still standing by the idea of this being a phantom thru mid month. After that, we'll see what happens when we get closer.

[tpweather]

Some nice rain down here just south of Greenville and my guess is about 1/2 of an inch. The front is moving through rather quickly for a early July front and even expecting dew points to drop which seldom happens from about mid-June - early Sept. Heading back home on the 4th but leaving at 4am and should miss any major traffic. Will be home for about 5-6 weeks which is great and head down in mid-August to help out with the start of school.

[tron777]

Safe travels for sure Tim!

[tpweather]

Safe travels for sure Tim!

Thanks Les.

[tron777]

72 / 55 at CVG with a nice N breeze. What a gorgeous afternoon in progress...

[tron777]

No major changes to our current thinking per the 12Z GFS run.

[tron777]

12Z Euro has a small chance of a shower / storm on the 4th but this is very very isolated. A little better shot Monday, but still widely scattered. Then the model has another shot Wed evening thru the 1st half of Thurs. The highest chances are kind of GFS like, coming next weekend.

[Sargent51]

Lovely day. Doors and top off the Jeep olllllllo and steaks on the grill. Kids are home. Life is good. Happy 4th people!

[tron777]

Lovely day. Doors and top off the Jeep olllllllo and steaks on the grill. Kids are home. Life is good. Happy 4th people!

Completely agree! Happy 4th to you and your family as well!

[MVWxObserver]

An over all great looking Independence Day weekend and for various activities!

Dad, his 1st and 3rd cousin(s), and a friend of the 3rd cousin going down in the morning for the 1st day of boat racing in Madison.

Our 1st cousin goes to it every year or at least most years.

Currently 70 here in Greenville and progged for around 54 on Sat morning.

[Wxulikeitornot]

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[Browneyedgirl]

Happy 4th! What a treat to have this kind of weather in July! I know it won't last but am enjoying it while it's here!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and nice relief down here in SC with dews in the 50's which rarely happens between June 1-Sept 15th. The long term through mid-month still looks like no extended heat. Yes we will have a few days near 90 but with all the rain in the central plains,ohio valley,southeast and also the south central states getting long term heat will be tough. What is funny the heat we do receive is from the north which sounds funny but drier across the northern 1/4 of the USA and that is where it has been warmer because of no rainfall. So my prediction of getting hot in July is not looking great at this point but still believe if the places that have been wet can dry out then a hotter pattern can happen. Have seen these patterns change quickly but if we continue to get some rainfall with these fronts then vegetation will remain green.

[tron777]

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This is awesome! Nice find!

[tron777]

Good morning and Happy Booms Day to you all! What a lovely day for it too.

[BookNerdCarp]

Happy 4th everyone!

[cloudy72]

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Happens in my hood 98.6% of the time LOL. Happy 4th to all!!!

[MVWxObserver]

Was kind of a dud of a day at the Madison, IN boat racing Sat as there were a few time trials but the recent rains have the Ohio River level high so the Army Corp of Engineers were notified to remove some debris and logs. Hopefully racing finally getting underway on Independence Day for those returning amongst the spectators!

Currently 64 here in G'ville and progged for around 66 Sun morning.

[tron777]

Had a great Show tonight! Everything went off without a hitch. Awesome Weather! What a great party and awesome time to be an American.

Pre show set up:

[tron777]

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