tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:52 am
Good Morning and a tad frosty out there this morning. Really no changes as I had no confidence in what may happen with this system. I can see where Trev is correct and no problem with the forecast. My problem is the temp profile especially when the system is starting to transfer what energy it has to a bigger storm system. I can see sometime Saturday morning where its snowing and 30 degrees and boom the transfer is quick and we end up with some drizzle and light snow mix the remainder of the day and temps get in the mid-30's. More to come on this system but its the system next week that has me excited and will go into that on the other thread.
From my perch on the sixth floor, you would have thought it was a coating of snow on all the cars. Defrosting now
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 6:52 am
Good Morning and a tad frosty out there this morning. Really no changes as I had no confidence in what may happen with this system. I can see where Trev is correct and no problem with the forecast. My problem is the temp profile especially when the system is starting to transfer what energy it has to a bigger storm system. I can see sometime Saturday morning where its snowing and 30 degrees and boom the transfer is quick and we end up with some drizzle and light snow mix the remainder of the day and temps get in the mid-30's. More to come on this system but its the system next week that has me excited and will go into that on the other thread.
From my perch on the sixth floor, you would have thought it was a coating of snow on all the cars. Defrosting now
I had 25 when I left for work this morning. Definitely had to defrost the car.
Trev the Nam looking good. More of a northward trend and the main reason is the high that at one time over us is east of us and the system looking for a place to go with the least resistance.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 8:14 am
9Z SREF has a 2" mean at CVG. Quite a few 4-6" weenie members skewing the avg.
Les usually we get one of the members that is so out of hand that it throws this off but not this time. Many members in the 3-4 inch range and then some in the 0-1 inch range and you end up with 2 inch mean.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 5:59 am
All good Trev. I'm just not seeing it anymore for decent snows. We lost the stronger primary tracking into SE KY / SE OH / WVA area and that was the solution that we needed to get a 1-3" or 2-4" event. Unless that comes back in future runs, I think an inch or less may do it for CVG and 1-2" in the SE, something like that anyway.
It's like I said the other day. When you're a few days out, it is common for a model to swing from one extreme to the other. Eventually it will settle in the middle. For this event, the extremes have been north of us and south of us. The middle puts it very near or over us. That is precisely why if you like snow, you never want to be in the bullseye several days out.
I totally agree with that statement. We never were bulls-eyed in CVG Land just the SE counties were.
And folks to the north. Remember when the models showed 18" at CMH? That doesn't look so good now lol.
That's why I hate model watching. lol Go from snowmagodden to no snow for you. lol I'm getting better at getting my hopes up for snow. But the weenie in me sometimes get the best of me. Therefore the lack of comments from me.
I thought that the precip was rather lacking on the 12Z NAM if you ask me. The low was pretty weak too which probably explains the lack of QPF. Usually the NAM likes to over amp things as its typical bias, but with this particular system, I have yet to see that happen. In fact, the NAM has been amongst some of the weakest solutions since it has gotten into its range.
The STJ just isn’t going to do us any favors with this event
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:56 am
The STJ just isn’t going to do us any favors with this event
Being we are in an El Niño, that really isn’t a surprise. It’s one of the thing that’s keeping the ceiling lower on this. We could have been talking about much higher amounts if such wasn’t the case. That’s why I’m keeping my forecast on the low end. 1-2 or 2-4 is a pretty low-end event for us with what could have been a 6”+ event easily.
tpweather wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:40 am
Trev the Nam looking good. More of a northward trend and the main reason is the high that at one time over us is east of us and the system looking for a place to go with the least resistance.
You are correct in this run being wetter and further north. Definitely some thermal issues here locally on that run, though.
The NAM isn't even showing much snow at the end of its run for the Northeast. This is vastly different from the other models. I'm inclined to say the NAM may be clueless with this storm. Either that or it's leading the way and the rest of the models will lower snow totals significantly in the runs to come.
dce wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:14 am
The NAM isn't even showing much snow at the end of its run for the Northeast. This is vastly different from the other models. I'm inclined to say the NAM may be clueless with this storm. Either that or it's leading the way and the rest of the models will lower snow totals significantly in the runs to come.
I’d be more inclined to give it more credit if we were in the 36/48 hour range. It’s at the end of its range so take it for what it’s worth.
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:56 am
The STJ just isn’t going to do us any favors with this event
Being we are in an El Niño, that really isn’t a surprise. It’s one of the thing that’s keeping the ceiling lower on this. We could have been talking about much higher amounts if such wasn’t the case. That’s why I’m keeping my forecast on the low end. 1-2 or 2-4 is a pretty low-end event for us with what could have been a 6”+ event easily.
I’d love to see it , but with models getting more reliable data as we get closer , the trend is lower qpf, combined with marginal temps at more than surface levels
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Bgoney wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 9:56 am
The STJ just isn’t going to do us any favors with this event
Being we are in an El Niño, that really isn’t a surprise. It’s one of the thing that’s keeping the ceiling lower on this. We could have been talking about much higher amounts if such wasn’t the case. That’s why I’m keeping my forecast on the low end. 1-2 or 2-4 is a pretty low-end event for us with what could have been a 6”+ event easily.
I’d love to see it , but with models getting more reliable data as we get closer , the trend is lower qpf, combined with marginal temps at more than surface levels
Any way you slice it nobody is calling for a major event. My forecast stands, but it is entirely possible that I drop the 2-4 and just open it to 1-3”. Either way a low-end event and impact will definitely be mitigated by marginal temps. Grassy and elevated surfaces will hold the most accumulation for sure.
0.28" of QPF at CVG from the 12Z GFS. We get some snow going over to light rain / drizzle once the rate of precip decreases. Can't really argue with that concept. Dynamic cooling processes will help in the snow dept but once the rates lessen it'll go over to rain.
tron777 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 03, 2024 10:57 am
0.28" of QPF at CVG from the 12Z GFS. We get some snow going over to light rain / drizzle once the rate of precip decreases. Can't really argue with that concept. Dynamic cooling processes will help in the snow dept but once the rates lessen it'll go over to rain.
Came here to say pretty much the same thing you did. Good post! Definitely noticing a bias toward the southern half of the area for best show totals. I will reflect that in my map update today.
