1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

[tron777]

18Z GFS is definitely coming in weaker unfortunately. A tenth of an inch at CVG for QPF. Time to throw those rotten tomatoes at Trev!

Still 4 days out. Not much of a concern in my opinion. We often see these fluctuations 3-5 days out. We shall see.

I know. I was joking with Trev.

[Trevor]

18z definitely weaker. Noticeable differences at the surface of course.

As others have stated, models will dance around a bit in this time frame. Nothing unusual there. If this becomes a trend for a few runs then that is of course a different story lol

[Trevor]

I’d bet we are back to the previous runs or something similar on 00z or 06z tonight.

[Bgoney]

Flashing that December storm track

[tron777]

I'm glad that I didn't come out with a snowfall forecast yet. After seeing the 12Z suite, I was going to come out and say 2-4" (for CVG Land) and 4"+ for SE Crew. 18Z GFS and GEFS said "hold on Wilbur!" 0Z tonight should be telling.

[tpweather]

I'm glad that I didn't come out with a snowfall forecast yet. After seeing the 12Z suite, I was going to come out and say 2-4" (for CVG Land) and 4"+ for SE Crew. 18Z GFS and GEFS said "hold on Wilbur!" 0Z tonight should be telling.

Les just too many items that needed addressing with this system and that is why I am waiting until probably Thursday. I hope Trev is correct about his forecast but I must wait and its killing me lol

[dce]

18Z GFS is definitely coming in weaker unfortunately. A tenth of an inch at CVG for QPF. Time to throw those rotten tomatoes at Trev!

Still 4 days out. Not much of a concern in my opinion. We often see these fluctuations 3-5 days out. We shall see.

I know. I was joking with Trev.

[BookNerdCarp]

I'm glad that I didn't come out with a snowfall forecast yet. After seeing the 12Z suite, I was going to come out and say 2-4" (for CVG Land) and 4"+ for SE Crew. 18Z GFS and GEFS said "hold on Wilbur!" 0Z tonight should be telling.

What did I miss? Good or bad?

[fyrfyter]

I'm glad that I didn't come out with a snowfall forecast yet. After seeing the 12Z suite, I was going to come out and say 2-4" (for CVG Land) and 4"+ for SE Crew. 18Z GFS and GEFS said "hold on Wilbur!" 0Z tonight should be telling.

What did I miss? Good or bad?

More model wobble, that’s about it.

[dce]

Well, the 00z run of models didn't help our cause for this weekend. This storm trended better for the coastal cities from DC to NY but not for the Ohio Valley. The UKMET and the CANADIAN models offer us a 1-3 inch snowfall. The GFS says not much to write home about. My guess is that the EUROPEAN will trend south with the rest of the models, but we will see about that in an hour or so.

[Trevor]

Good morning! Energy drink in hand and ready to look over the 00z runs. Euro is coming in now.

[Trevor]

As Aaron put it, the "model wobble" continues on the 00z runs. Both the GFS and Euro have come in much weaker with the northern (lead) low, and thus have significantly reduced precipitation amounts. That is essentially what it comes down to. Weak lead low, low precipitation amounts. Stronger lead low brings higher amounts.

For days now the lead low has been forecast to be stronger, so personally I still feel pretty comfortable with my forecast as I do suspect that there will be a correction in future runs.

[dce]

The 00z Euro nails New York City to Boston. Our forum area gets basically no snow on this run. The 00z suite as a whole is definitely a step in the wrong direction for accumulating snowfall in our area. Still time for a bit of a reversal, but it's not very encouraging at this point.

[dce]

As Aaron put it, the "model wobble" continues on the 00z runs. Both the GFS and Euro have come in much weaker with the northern (lead) low, and thus have significantly reduced precipitation amounts. That is essentially what it comes down to. Weak lead low, low precipitation amounts. Stronger lead low brings higher amounts.

For days now the lead low has been forecast to be stronger, so personally I still feel pretty comfortable with my forecast as I do suspect that there will be a correction in future runs.

As a snow starved weather weenie here in the Ohio Valley, I hope you're right.

[Trevor]

As Aaron put it, the "model wobble" continues on the 00z runs. Both the GFS and Euro have come in much weaker with the northern (lead) low, and thus have significantly reduced precipitation amounts. That is essentially what it comes down to. Weak lead low, low precipitation amounts. Stronger lead low brings higher amounts.

For days now the lead low has been forecast to be stronger, so personally I still feel pretty comfortable with my forecast as I do suspect that there will be a correction in future runs.

As a snow starved weather weenie here in the Ohio Valley, I hope you're right.

It's best to go with trends, and by and large the models have consistently shown a stronger, further north track. Hard to go against the trends. If the next few runs continue what the 00z guidance showed this evening then that is obviously another story.

[tron777]

Our best chance for snow may actually be on Sunday with the energy dropping in behind the EC Low. I think Bgoney said it best yesterday and this is a replay of what we saw in December unfortunately. Tim's thought have also been correct with regards to the EC getting in on the better snowfall versus us. The storm phases and gets its act together too late. That has been the trend since last evening.

[Trevor]

I am going to have to disagree. I truly believe this is a model hiccup, and we will see a correction in future runs.

In fact, the 06z GFS adjusted back to the north.

I have no plans to change my forecast at this time. I will probably create a new map after 12z runs to make any smaller adjustments that may be needed

[tron777]

All good Trev. I'm just not seeing it anymore for decent snows. We lost the stronger primary tracking into SE KY / SE OH / WVA area and that was the solution that we needed to get a 1-3" or 2-4" event. Unless that comes back in future runs, I think an inch or less may do it for CVG and 1-2" in the SE, something like that anyway.

[Trevor]

All good Trev. I'm just not seeing it anymore for decent snows. We lost the stronger primary tracking into SE KY / SE OH / WVA area and that was the solution that we needed to get a 1-3" or 2-4" event. Unless that comes back in future runs, I think an inch or less may do it for CVG and 1-2" in the SE, something like that anyway.

It's like I said the other day. When you're a few days out, it is common for a model to swing from one extreme to the other. Eventually it will settle in the middle. For this event, the extremes have been north of us and south of us. The middle puts it very near or over us. That is precisely why if you like snow, you never want to be in the bullseye several days out.

[tron777]

All good Trev. I'm just not seeing it anymore for decent snows. We lost the stronger primary tracking into SE KY / SE OH / WVA area and that was the solution that we needed to get a 1-3" or 2-4" event. Unless that comes back in future runs, I think an inch or less may do it for CVG and 1-2" in the SE, something like that anyway.

It's like I said the other day. When you're a few days out, it is common for a model to swing from one extreme to the other. Eventually it will settle in the middle. For this event, the extremes have been north of us and south of us. The middle puts it very near or over us. That is precisely why if you like snow, you never want to be in the bullseye several days out.

I totally agree with that statement. We never were bulls-eyed in CVG Land just the SE counties were.

[Trevor]

All good Trev. I'm just not seeing it anymore for decent snows. We lost the stronger primary tracking into SE KY / SE OH / WVA area and that was the solution that we needed to get a 1-3" or 2-4" event. Unless that comes back in future runs, I think an inch or less may do it for CVG and 1-2" in the SE, something like that anyway.

It's like I said the other day. When you're a few days out, it is common for a model to swing from one extreme to the other. Eventually it will settle in the middle. For this event, the extremes have been north of us and south of us. The middle puts it very near or over us. That is precisely why if you like snow, you never want to be in the bullseye several days out.

I totally agree with that statement. We never were bulls-eyed in CVG Land just the SE counties were.

And folks to the north. Remember when the models showed 18" at CMH? That doesn't look so good now lol.

[Trevor]

06z GFS was a step back toward the middle I am speaking of. Let's see if 12z plays nice! lol

[Trevor]

At least here the public pressure is limited. I post primarily on FB and my snowfall map has been seen by 31,035 people. That would be a lot of tomatoes, Les

Joking aside, like I said, I am still at a medium confidence level.

[tron777]

At least here the public pressure is limited. I post primarily on FB and my snowfall map has been seen by 31,035 people. That would be a lot of tomatoes, Les

Joking aside, like I said, I am still at a medium confidence level.

You feel a lot better about it then I do lol Hopefully the 12Z suite will throw us a bone. One thing is for sure... it is hard to get a strong storm system. Models continue to grossly over estimate the strength of these low pressure systems. Hope the same fate does not happen to La Bomba.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a tad frosty out there this morning. Really no changes as I had no confidence in what may happen with this system. I can see where Trev is correct and no problem with the forecast. My problem is the temp profile especially when the system is starting to transfer what energy it has to a bigger storm system. I can see sometime Saturday morning where its snowing and 30 degrees and boom the transfer is quick and we end up with some drizzle and light snow mix the remainder of the day and temps get in the mid-30's. More to come on this system but its the system next week that has me excited and will go into that on the other thread.