January 2024 Weather Discussion

[Trevor]

Because I have WeatherBell I have access to the National Blend of Models. It can be a helpful tool.

[Trevor]

That looks good to me Trev. Can't really argue with it at all. I do think that there will be a weenie band of 4" or more but that can be put on the map later should more QPF get involved.

I like it Trev, have to watch qpf trends

Yes and that is another reason I kept amounts lower than what most recent guidance is showing. As we all know, QPF has tended to decrease as an event draws nearer for months now.

This is very true but since this is an STJ disturbance, one would think that should buck the trend. We shall soon find out. Speed of the system works against very heavy QPF.

Because we are dealing with an energy transfer, one thing to watch would be a possible slowing trend on the models.

[tron777]

That looks good to me Trev. Can't really argue with it at all. I do think that there will be a weenie band of 4" or more but that can be put on the map later should more QPF get involved.

I like it Trev, have to watch qpf trends

Yes and that is another reason I kept amounts lower than what most recent guidance is showing. As we all know, QPF has tended to decrease as an event draws nearer for months now.

This is very true but since this is an STJ disturbance, one would think that should buck the trend. We shall soon find out. Speed of the system works against very heavy QPF.

Because we are dealing with an energy transfer, one thing to watch would be a possible slowing trend on the models.

True... that could help us out too if the transfer is slow enough. That is ultimately what we want to see. Awesome i.e. access to NBM.

[Bgoney]

Mixed feelings about the NBM, you have input from some models that struggle at this range

[Trevor]

Mixed feelings about the NBM, you have input from some models that struggle at this range

Like any model, it is simply a tool not gospel.

[Trevor]

The ceiling really is very high for my bomb. That is going to be one hell of a storm in terms of size, strength, and impact. Honestly could be a kitchen sink situation for us, Les. Some wintry, wet, and windy. That's going to be a fun one to watch...

[Trevor]

Oh...and in case you didn't know...that pressure is equivalent to a Cat 2 hurricane! Wild.

[Trevor]

Some more model porn for you all. GFS is advertising 50mph+ winds next Tuesday...

[Trevor]

I'd even go as far as to say that The Bomb will be the storm of Winter 23-24 in a large-scale sense. Not necessarily for wintry impacts locally.

[Trevor]

Storm thread has been created.

viewtopic.php?t=283

[Trevor]

Storm thread for The Bomb has been created.

viewtopic.php?t=284

[tron777]

Thanks for creating the threads Trev. After La Bomba, the pattern looks cold and active so additional storm threads maybe on the way over the next few weeks, This beats the heck out of last winter for sure.

[dce]

The ceiling really is very high for my bomb. That is going to be one hell of a storm in terms of size, strength, and impact. Honestly could be a kitchen sink situation for us, Les. Some wintry, wet, and windy. That's going to be a fun one to watch...

I would think that with the historically warm lake water the aftermath of this storm will produce massive lake effect snows. Winds will be whipping across the lakes.

[tpweather]

Wonderful posts from everyone this morning. I have nothing to add at this time which never happens lol.

[tron777]

The ceiling really is very high for my bomb. That is going to be one hell of a storm in terms of size, strength, and impact. Honestly could be a kitchen sink situation for us, Les. Some wintry, wet, and windy. That's going to be a fun one to watch...

I would think that with the historically warm lake water the aftermath of this storm will produce massive lake effect snows. Winds will be whipping across the lakes.

Totally agree! The LES machine should be in full force.

[airwolf76]

that storm being advertised next week is gonna leave a mark. this weekend storm is just the appetizer

[Bgoney]

Weekly Enso

IMG_1148.jpeg

[tpweather]

Just wanted to comment on the mjo. Heading towards phase 3 but some models have it in phase 4 which is no good for the most part if you like winter weather. I have been mentioning that the mjo will head back into the COD over the next week or so and still believe that to be true. So when looking at noaa and the long term forecasts you can see the model is having problems on whether it does go to the cod or heads towards phase 4. I believe once that is resolved then we see much of the USA with below normal temps if cod is the correct call or if it gets into phase 4 the coldest areas will be in the western states.

[tron777]

Just wanted to comment on the mjo. Heading towards phase 3 but some models have it in phase 4 which is no good for the most part if you like winter weather. I have been mentioning that the mjo will head back into the COD over the next week or so and still believe that to be true. So when looking at noaa and the long term forecasts you can see the model is having problems on whether it does go to the cod or heads towards phase 4. I believe once that is resolved then we see much of the USA with below normal temps if cod is the correct call or if it gets into phase 4 the coldest areas will be in the western states.

No doubt the modeling has been terrible with regards to the MJO. The Teleconnection indexes still show a -PNA / -EPO / -AO / -NAO combo coming up as we head towards mid month. I am still very hopeful that we can cash in with this set up. I still stand by my comment from the other day of the blocking over the top helping us out so we don't torch thanks to the -PNA which should keep the storms coming in from the Pacific with the active STJ working underneath the blocking.

[Bgoney]

Dang , just noticed this beast over the Aleutians

IMG_1149.jpeg

[winterstormjoe]

Wow, I just went past my lunch hour finally reading about the La Bomba: Jan 8-11, 2024, the 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024 and also the month of Jan. Been so busy the past several days! Looks like were good for a couple inches of wet snow and some rain this weekend followed be a more impressive storm early next week with everything on the table with that one! I also like what I saw on last night's GFS run for what's coming after that???? I'll just leave it there for now as it looks like we'll be wearing our seat belts for a while!

[tron777]

Wow, I just went past my lunch hour finally reading about the La Bomba: Jan 8-11, 2024, the 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024 and also the month of Jan. Been so busy the past several days! Looks like were good for a couple inches of wet snow and some rain this weekend followed be a more impressive storm early next week with everything on the table with that one! I also like what I saw on last night's GFS run for what's coming after that???? I'll just leave it there for now as it looks like we'll be wearing our seat belts for a while!

Yes Sir... they may not be all snow makers but we will be busy regardless!

[winterstormjoe]

Wow, I just went past my lunch hour finally reading about the La Bomba: Jan 8-11, 2024, the 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024 and also the month of Jan. Been so busy the past several days! Looks like were good for a couple inches of wet snow and some rain this weekend followed be a more impressive storm early next week with everything on the table with that one! I also like what I saw on last night's GFS run for what's coming after that???? I'll just leave it there for now as it looks like we'll be wearing our seat belts for a while!

Yes Sir... they may not be all snow makers but we will be busy regardless!

Exactly Les, a very stormy pattern coming. I hope once the La Bomba passes that the cold can settle in for a while with the active STJ.

[tron777]

Wow, I just went past my lunch hour finally reading about the La Bomba: Jan 8-11, 2024, the 1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024 and also the month of Jan. Been so busy the past several days! Looks like were good for a couple inches of wet snow and some rain this weekend followed be a more impressive storm early next week with everything on the table with that one! I also like what I saw on last night's GFS run for what's coming after that???? I'll just leave it there for now as it looks like we'll be wearing our seat belts for a while!

Yes Sir... they may not be all snow makers but we will be busy regardless!

Exactly Les, a very stormy pattern coming. I hope once the La Bomba passes that the cold can settle in for a while with the active STJ.

That has been my expectation for a while now Joe. Hope it comes to fruition! I still expect all of the tellies to be in a negative phase which will keep the pattern active and hopefully cold too. MJO is a wildcard but it's tough to trust the modeling on that since it's been terrible.

[tpweather]

Forgot to post here with the two other threads with the upcoming systems. I believe the models will get colder after next weeks storm. Models are terrible with really cold air and always has and this is what I expect this time. More snow cover to the northwest after next weeks storm plus more storms to factor in afterwards. Getting these highs in Canada to exceed 1040 and some even showing 1050 means cold air coming this way. How cold and again not sure yet but lets say many days from mid-month until the end of January will be below normal.