1st Winter Storm Threat of the Season: January 5-7, 2024

[Trevor]

Continue winter storm disco here. I left the date range a bit wide due to timing differences on the models.

[tron777]

Oh wow... you've pulled the trigger already! Hope you did not jinx it.

[Trevor]

Oh wow... you've pulled the trigger already! Hope you did not jinx it.

I will accept the rotten tomatoes should that be the case

[tron777]

Oh wow... you've pulled the trigger already! Hope you did not jinx it.

I will accept the rotten tomatoes should that be the case

Fair enough. It'll be interesting once this gets into the NAM's range here shortly.

[Trevor]

Oh wow... you've pulled the trigger already! Hope you did not jinx it.

I will accept the rotten tomatoes should that be the case

Fair enough. It'll be interesting once this gets into the NAM's range here shortly.

Agreed. The higher-res models are always more helpful in sniffing out where the heavier bands may be.

[Trevor]

The GFS is running now.

[tpweather]

Another item is we have a cold front late on Wednesday and early Thursday. Though not real strong it does help bring in some colder air and that is important ahead of a bigger system.

[tron777]

Another item is we have a cold front late on Wednesday and early Thursday. Though not real strong it does help bring in some colder air and that is important ahead of a bigger system.

100% correct Tim... great post!

[tron777]

In addition to what Tim just posted, the strength and position of the high behind that cold front for later this week, also needs to be watched. That will tell us ultimately how far north the precip shield will come for this weekend.

[Trevor]

1029mb high centered over west-central Ohio at hr 60.

[tron777]

1031 MB over Eastern WVA at 72 hours.

[Trevor]

Looking very similar to 06z thus far.

[tron777]

This is one of those nail biters whereas everything seems to come together right over us. Probably will see some changes continue. Minor little tweaks here and there.

[Trevor]

This is going to be a solid hit.

[Trevor]

Looks like around 0.50" liquid. Nice.

[tron777]

Decent run IMO on the 12Z GFS. I like the slower decay of the primary. That will help us out. 0.54" QPF at CVG.

[Trevor]

Decent run IMO on the 12Z GFS. I like the slower decay of the primary. That will help us out. 0.54" QPF at CVG.

Exactly as I mentioned earlier. These things tend to slow down a bit when an energy transfer is involved.

[Trevor]

Bonus flakes on Sunday as a trough swings through.

[airwolf76]

things are looking pretty good for my area in PA also with this one.

[Trevor]

Canadian is almost identical with the placement of the snow.

[tron777]

Decent run IMO on the 12Z GFS. I like the slower decay of the primary. That will help us out. 0.54" QPF at CVG.

Exactly as I mentioned earlier. These things tend to slow down a bit when an energy transfer is involved.

Yes Sir! Would love to see the 12Z GFS's solution pan out.

[tron777]

things are looking pretty good for my area in PA also with this one.

It's been a long time since we've had a decent snowfall impact both of our locations. This could be one of those rare times.

[airwolf76]

things are looking pretty good for my area in PA also with this one.

It's been a long time since we've had a decent snowfall impact both of our locations. This could be one of those rare times.

Jan 96.....

[tron777]

things are looking pretty good for my area in PA also with this one.

It's been a long time since we've had a decent snowfall impact both of our locations. This could be one of those rare times.

Jan 96.....

Yep! This system reminds me of that just a mini version of course.

[Trevor]

Because of marginal thermals, ratios will be <10:1. Just something to keep in mind. Total concrete.