January 2024 Weather Discussion

[Trevor]

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/XirfFv ... tid=K8Wfd2

[tron777]

#Indy received 0.1" of snow on 12/31/23, marking the latest first measurable snow of the season since 1941. Record latest first measurable snowfalls for Indy:
1) January 4, 1941
2) December 31, 2023
3) December 29. 1986

[tpweather]

Happy New Year to everyone!!! Busy week in the weather department and will start research after I grab my second cup of coffee.

[Phr0z3n]

Looks like models are trying to fire a Miller C snow event for
Sat-Sun night. I definitely like the consistency in the model runs this far out. When comparing the 0z euro and 0z gfs there are a lot of the ingredients there. 50/50 low appears to be in place with a decent Newfoundland block. IMO maybe the euro missed it completely in the 0z run ( the Newfoundland block looks identical to 0z gfs). This is going to be a wait and see and a timing issue with the transfer of energy from the primary to the secondary low, and of course the dry slot of death where the 850 low decides to travel.

IMG_0110.jpeg

[tpweather]

So what has been the trend this season is what Bgoney mentioned and storm head up the east coast. I will wait to see if the models made any more corrections. With the STJ moving right along instead of northwest shifts we see quite often it may be a season of southeast shifts. With the 2 systems coming in and one around the 6th and another just a few days later the second system will sort of force the first system to move along. Will need to see if a upper system is north of the surface low and where exactly is that going to take place. I do believe these systems have a nice cold core and that is good but how much cold air do we have at the surface is key. For me its way to early to make a call but I did inform the neighbors last night that two storms are coming in the next 10 days and some do travel so they want to know when is the best time for them to head out of town. I need another cup of coffee after a few beers last night lol

[Trevor]

https://www.facebook.com/share/p/pAMdrG ... tid=K8Wfd2

[Phr0z3n]

I see the difference now with the 500mb vorticity in regards to sat-sun night. For us to cash in the upper level trough has to turn negative just east of the Mississippi. Gfs operational depicts this well. Euro operational is just a tad farther east when it goes negative. We have plenty of time to watch this unfold.

[Trevor]

I see the difference now with the 500mb vorticity in regards to sat-sun night. For us to cash in the upper level trough has to turn negative just east of the Mississippi. Gfs operational depicts this well. Euro operational is just a tad farther east when it goes negative. We have plenty of time to watch this unfold.

This is exactly correct and the main driver for the differences between the globals. Good eye.

[fyrfyter]

IMG_0787.jpeg

#LockItIn

[tron777]

Looks like models are trying to fire a Miller C snow event for
Sat-Sun night. I definitely like the consistency in the model runs this far out. When comparing the 0z euro and 0z gfs there are a lot of the ingredients there. 50/50 low appears to be in place with a decent Newfoundland block. IMO maybe the euro missed it completely in the 0z run ( the Newfoundland block looks identical to 0z gfs). This is going to be a wait and see and a timing issue with the transfer of energy from the primary to the secondary low, and of course the dry slot of death where the 850 low decides to travel.IMG_0110.jpeg

I didn't think of it as being a Miller C. Forgot about those lol Good graphic too explaining what a Miller C really is. You need to post more often! You always have good posts too that we all can learn from.

[tron777]

So what has been the trend this season is what Bgoney mentioned and storm head up the east coast. I will wait to see if the models made any more corrections. With the STJ moving right along instead of northwest shifts we see quite often it may be a season of southeast shifts. With the 2 systems coming in and one around the 6th and another just a few days later the second system will sort of force the first system to move along. Will need to see if a upper system is north of the surface low and where exactly is that going to take place. I do believe these systems have a nice cold core and that is good but how much cold air do we have at the surface is key. For me its way to early to make a call but I did inform the neighbors last night that two storms are coming in the next 10 days and some do travel so they want to know when is the best time for them to head out of town. I need another cup of coffee after a few beers last night lol

That is what concerns me. The SE shift. We have seen it time and time again so far this season and you can thank the -NAO for that.

[tron777]

I see the difference now with the 500mb vorticity in regards to sat-sun night. For us to cash in the upper level trough has to turn negative just east of the Mississippi. Gfs operational depicts this well. Euro operational is just a tad farther east when it goes negative. We have plenty of time to watch this unfold.

This is exactly correct and the main driver for the differences between the globals. Good eye.

Wonderful post! Timing is always everything in Ohio Valley snow storms. That is the main reason why we don't see very many of them. Our geographic location stinks. We are too far away from the Lakes for lake effect so we have to relay on synoptic systems.

[Trevor]

I’m in the southern camp (Canadian and even Euro) but as Phrozen said, timing at 500mb is crucial. I think we will have a better handle on this by the PM Wed/AM Thu model runs.

I still think we squeak out some light snow up this way but by and large I think we miss the heavier stuff. We shall see! Forecast confidence is not super high and this is of course not my final forecast. Just my thoughts for now.

[tron777]

Another thing too... over the last few winters, we have seen a strong storm modeled, only to have it weaken within the Day 3-5 window. That is another concern that I have. We need a strong system to avoid suppression which is a very real risk with this system.

[Trevor]

Another thing too... over the last few winters, we have seen a strong storm modeled, only to have it weaken within the Day 3-5 window. That is another concern that I have. We need a strong system to avoid suppression which is a very real risk with this system.

Agreed. Good post sir. Strong but not too strong. We never have it easy

My bomb is still going strong! Pretty impressive from a model consistency standpoint. Been on the radar for a while.

[tron777]

Another thing too... over the last few winters, we have seen a strong storm modeled, only to have it weaken within the Day 3-5 window. That is another concern that I have. We need a strong system to avoid suppression which is a very real risk with this system.

Agreed. Good post sir.

My bomb is still going strong! Pretty impressive from a model consistency standpoint. Been on the radar for a while.

Yeah... so far so good on that one. We'll have to wait and see if that one trends weaker / SE in time. It would not surprise me if it actually did. Meanwhile, as we await the results from the 12Z GFS, this is a good graphic I found on Facebook explaining the computer models and why accuracy grows as an event gets closer in time.

Weather Model Graphic.jpg

[Trevor]

Another thing too... over the last few winters, we have seen a strong storm modeled, only to have it weaken within the Day 3-5 window. That is another concern that I have. We need a strong system to avoid suppression which is a very real risk with this system.

Agreed. Good post sir.

My bomb is still going strong! Pretty impressive from a model consistency standpoint. Been on the radar for a while.

Yeah... so far so good on that one. We'll have to wait and see if that one trends weaker / SE in time. It would not surprise me if it actually did. Meanwhile, as we await the results from the 12Z GFS, this is a good graphic I found on Facebook explaining the computer models and why accuracy grows as an event gets closer in time.


Weather Model Graphic.jpg

The bomb weakening would actually benefit us and put us more in the game for winter weather. Some of the models have trended that way in fact.

[tron777]

Another thing too... over the last few winters, we have seen a strong storm modeled, only to have it weaken within the Day 3-5 window. That is another concern that I have. We need a strong system to avoid suppression which is a very real risk with this system.

Agreed. Good post sir.

My bomb is still going strong! Pretty impressive from a model consistency standpoint. Been on the radar for a while.

Yeah... so far so good on that one. We'll have to wait and see if that one trends weaker / SE in time. It would not surprise me if it actually did. Meanwhile, as we await the results from the 12Z GFS, this is a good graphic I found on Facebook explaining the computer models and why accuracy grows as an event gets closer in time.


Weather Model Graphic.jpg

The bomb weakening would actually benefit us and put us more in the game for winter weather. Some of the models have trended that way in fact.

It definitely would, I agree. That's why I said what I just said. We basically just posted the same thing.

[tron777]

The trough is digging a bit more when compared to the 6Z run at 96 hours.

[tron777]

Of course after I posted that, it's going to come in as a weak piece of junk.

[Trevor]

And there you go the GFS caved to the Canadian and Euro. Not surprising and matches with what I was expecting.

[tron777]

And there you go the GFS caved to the Canadian and Euro. Not surprising and matches with what I was expecting.

Same here. A swing and a miss was, and still is my main concern.

[tron777]

That solution opens the door for a big old fashioned Plains Blizzard too as you can see on the GFS right now.

[tron777]

12Z CMC looks a bit icy for the coming weekend system. I'd rather have a swing and a miss to be honest.

[Trevor]

12Z CMC looks a bit icy for the coming weekend system. I'd rather have a swing and a miss to be honest.