December 2023 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Drought just as bad or worse in some areas this fall going into winter as last year for the OV and much worse for the TV and mid south ( goes back to the lack of SE ridge and STJ turning the GOM spigot off)

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[winterstormjoe]

One more record that will be broken , unless we have an unforeseen development. Our coldest temp of 2023 calendar year is 15 degrees, that would smash the current # 1 for a calendar year






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What's funny is that -8 for last year (2022) fell about one year ago today when we had that brief blizzard and cold snap.

[tron777]

One more record that will be broken , unless we have an unforeseen development. Our coldest temp of 2023 calendar year is 15 degrees, that would smash the current # 1 for a calendar year






IMG_1061.jpeg

What's funny is that -8 for last year (2022) fell about one year ago today when we had that brief blizzard and cold snap.

I am so glad I was working from home for that storm LOL January and Feb will be interesting now that I am commuting again.

[tron777]

MJO forecasts are still looking good from a lot of the models esp in Phases 1 and 2 . AO and NAO are still forecast to fall into early January as well. Ensemble guidance still looking favorable as well by then. As usual, we'll have to wait and see how the individual storm systems develop and track but the background state and 500 MB pattern is certainly looking better in my book.

[winterstormjoe]

Good Morning and another nice day for shoppers. First day of winter so 90 days or so until spring. So far this fall season we have seen the coldest compared to normal over eastern Europe then it switched for a short time to western Europe and current cold is in eastern Asia over China. When these cold spells come they are really cold and one reason is because its so warm on our side of the planet. Some places in the upper mid-west and northern plains will probably end up 15 degrees or more above normal for December. Once again Mother Nature doing her balancing job. The good thing imo is the cold is not staying in one place for an extended period and will this continue around the globe and hit us in January. This is not counting on the SSW event if it were to occur.

What is funny is when you get a stronger El Nino much of China is usually very mild and it started that way early in the fall with record temps but it has switched and done a 180. The STJ and we talk about it quite often but the jet does not stop and heads around the world and so far with it being well south this has helped both Europe and Asia to get cold and stormy. Hopefully the STJ gets into its normal position during and El Nino and this hopefully will bring more storminess but having systems getting closer to together to merge and that is so important. That happened this past weekend and the only problem is we still had too much warm air around but the storm was able to bring a quick shot of cold to the east.

Hey Tim, looking at the GFS (for example) to see any good snow possibilities for the future still look bleak, for the most part systems look to skirt south of us and spokes of energy continue to pin wheel south from Canada keeping us in no mans land with this dry static electricity pattern. Lol
Like last weekend's system did have phasing (late). But, these phasings are few and far between in this pattern. Hopefully, in Jan we can get more phasing and have colder air to work with or get into those boundary type situations where we are on the cold side, but that could also mean ice storms which we don't need! Ugh!!

[tron777]

My confidence continues to remain low from the 28th on as I've mentioned a few times. The operational models continue to show a different solution almost on every run so until that model noise gets sorted out, I don't have a lot to say. Yet...

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another nice day for shoppers. First day of winter so 90 days or so until spring. So far this fall season we have seen the coldest compared to normal over eastern Europe then it switched for a short time to western Europe and current cold is in eastern Asia over China. When these cold spells come they are really cold and one reason is because its so warm on our side of the planet. Some places in the upper mid-west and northern plains will probably end up 15 degrees or more above normal for December. Once again Mother Nature doing her balancing job. The good thing imo is the cold is not staying in one place for an extended period and will this continue around the globe and hit us in January. This is not counting on the SSW event if it were to occur.

What is funny is when you get a stronger El Nino much of China is usually very mild and it started that way early in the fall with record temps but it has switched and done a 180. The STJ and we talk about it quite often but the jet does not stop and heads around the world and so far with it being well south this has helped both Europe and Asia to get cold and stormy. Hopefully the STJ gets into its normal position during and El Nino and this hopefully will bring more storminess but having systems getting closer to together to merge and that is so important. That happened this past weekend and the only problem is we still had too much warm air around but the storm was able to bring a quick shot of cold to the east.

Hey Tim, looking at the GFS (for example) to see any good snow possibilities for the future still look bleak, for the most part systems look to skirt south of us and spokes of energy continue to pin wheel south from Canada keeping us in no mans land with this dry static electricity pattern. Lol
Like last weekend's system did have phasing (late). But, these phasings are few and far between in this pattern. Hopefully, in Jan we can get more phasing and have colder air to work with or get into those boundary type situations where we are on the cold side, but that could also mean ice storms which we don't need! Ugh!!

Hey Joe and hope everything is going well. The models will have trouble this season because of the divided jets streams. My guess some of the bigger systems may not even show up until about 3-5 days ahead of the storm. Getting the bigger storms we need the big difference in temps and of course at the moment that is not happening. Hopefully by next week models will at least show the colder air starting to arrive

[tron777]

Great post Tim! We are in agreement for sure on that!

[tron777]

I'm still digging the longer term guidance (12Z GFS / GEFS) esp for early January. I think the first week or two of the New Year holds promise with an active STJ and ridging retrograding into NW Canada and AK. Cold enough air for snow may finally begin to get more involved. Hang in there my fellow snow lovers! Our time is still yet to come!

[tpweather]

I'm still digging the longer term guidance (12Z GFS / GEFS) esp for early January. I think the first week or two of the New Year holds promise with an active STJ and ridging retrograding into NW Canada and AK. Cold enough air for snow may finally begin to get more involved. Hang in there my fellow snow lovers! Our time is still yet to come!

I agree Les and this does not include if a SSW happens. I believe we have several weeks for any effects from a SSW if it happens at all. With the ridging hopefully going into NW Canada and Alaska this will have the cold air over in Siberia come up and over the ridge. Sure its not that cold in western Canada but you can get the flow to hook up with the cold over eastern Canada and that air can work its way south. Still believe many times this season we are on the western edge of the really cold air but being on the edge many times is the place to be for a big storm.

[tron777]

I'm still digging the longer term guidance (12Z GFS / GEFS) esp for early January. I think the first week or two of the New Year holds promise with an active STJ and ridging retrograding into NW Canada and AK. Cold enough air for snow may finally begin to get more involved. Hang in there my fellow snow lovers! Our time is still yet to come!

I agree Les and this does not include if a SSW happens. I believe we have several weeks for any effects from a SSW if it happens at all. With the ridging hopefully going into NW Canada and Alaska this will have the cold air over in Siberia come up and over the ridge. Sure its not that cold in western Canada but you can get the flow to hook up with the cold over eastern Canada and that air can work its way south. Still believe many times this season we are on the western edge of the really cold air but being on the edge many times is the place to be for a big storm.

Agreed Tim. If the SSW occurs in early January then you would not see impacts until late in the month and into February. Even if one occurs, there is still no guarantee we get cold. The cold could easily remain in Siberia and China where it has been.

[tpweather]

Already seeing changes in past 24 hours on the models. Lets see this trend continue. Makes sense once the models start getting all the info and just not bits and parts

[tron777]

Already seeing changes in past 24 hours on the models. Lets see this trend continue. Makes sense once the models start getting all the info and just not bits and parts

Yes Sir... we should continue to see changes (for the better IMO) as time goes on.

[tron777]

Wow... 12Z Euro is sure cold towards the end of the year. Subfreezing highs if it's correct.

[winterstormjoe]

Already seeing changes in past 24 hours on the models. Lets see this trend continue. Makes sense once the models start getting all the info and just not bits and parts

Yes Sir... we should continue to see changes (for the better IMO) as time goes on.

Just saw the 12z GFS and the very end of the run. So, I'm just going to forget what I just saw! Lol lol

[tron777]

Already seeing changes in past 24 hours on the models. Lets see this trend continue. Makes sense once the models start getting all the info and just not bits and parts

Yes Sir... we should continue to see changes (for the better IMO) as time goes on.

Just saw the 12z GFS and the very end of the run. So, I'm just going to forget what I just saw! Lol lol

I'd forget it too. You know it will change on the Happy Hour run in a few hours.

[Bgoney]

Going to need that off the charts ridge (day 10)in central Canada to stay as modeled to get a more forceful push of colder Canadian air around the new year

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[tron777]

Going to need that off the charts ridge (day 10)in central Canada to stay as modeled to get a more forceful push of colder Canadian air around the new year


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By early January if the continued retrogression of that ridge is more into Alaska and NW Canada, then we'll be just fine. That is what I am watching very closely.

[MVWxObserver]

One more record that will be broken , unless we have an unforeseen development. Our coldest temp of 2023 calendar year is 15 degrees, that would smash the current # 1 for a calendar year






IMG_1061.jpeg

What's funny is that -8 for last year (2022) fell about one year ago today when we had that brief blizzard and cold snap.

Hey Joe,

I'll always remember that event and in part when my folks and my, although fortunately empty, curbside trash cart was outside by a road of our former residence in north Greenville and in the predawn for early pickup via Rumpke a strong gust of wind caught the empty cart and flung it a few feet away landing alongside the road near a neighbor's house. I heard a loud thud, got dressed, entered the garage and could see through the garage door window and from the glare of street lights our cart. Then I psyched myself up and went out and retrieved it, and shockingly discovered a wheel had broken off the cart from the landing impact. We had put our cart at the curb the night before for early Christmas Day servicing. Was "fun" of course retrieving the vessel. A few days later we found the wheel in a plowed snowbank by the road and a few weeks later received a new cart.

At our new residence in a retirement community neighborhood in south Greenville we use city-issued bags for our household trash and we also use a tub for recyclables. We had also used a recyclables tub at our former house.

[Bgoney]

Look familiar?

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[MVWxObserver]

Got to 50 in CVG and 49 at both DAY / CMH today.

[tron777]

Look familiar?

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I lost my link to generate those maps. What does Phase 1 in January look like with an El Nino? I am betting it is colder.

[tron777]

DT This Week in Weather from yesterday:

[Bgoney]

Look familiar?

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I lost my link to generate those maps. What does Phase 1 in January look like with an El Nino? I am betting it is colder.

Les I had this stored in my photos, (and this one) don’t have phase 1 for Jan but have phase 2 and if that follows suit that should add better winter chances and or rain makers for much of the lower 48

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[tron777]

Thanks Bgoney! The above look is way better then Phase 8 of course so I think my thoughts are good with regards to Phase 1.