July 2021 Weather Discussion

All weather related things can be found here! From snow storms to severe weather including the best model analysis and long range forecasting around!
Post Reply
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Thursday will kick off July on a wet note for some. Them we look to turn beautiful for Fri - Holiday Weekend period. Highs in the 70s to low 80s and lows in the 50s to low 60s. A nice break from the heat and humidity we've been seeing. Most pyro's are looking good for fireworks this weekend which I am very thankful for. The upper 80s to near 90 returns next week so enjoy the break! Hope to see better storm chances the second half of next week once we see how the tropics play into everything.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Looking more and more like we'll see some contest days again next week. Monday and Tues looking like a 90 degree day being possible after we get a gorgeous Fri, Sat and 4th of July period.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4352
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

Wow , some of the localized amounts are impressive .
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Good morning and Happy July 1st to you all! Heavy rain for sure in a lot of places with the heaviest totals coming in N of the river. Saw a few 3-6" totals! But then you have ILN only getting 0.30" :lol: So we still have a few have and have not's out there. 1.56" event total so far at CVG as of 6am. I've had over an inch and half here as well. The Dome finally broke open last night. Still pouring here this morning. Radar looking active for a good chunk of the morning with the action becoming more scattered this afternoon. Once the front passes this evening, we are good to go!

Tomorrow and Sat are awesome with temps warming up by Sunday. The humidity is back in full force next week along with 90 degree temps once again. We'll have to see how rain chances look next week once we see how TS Elsa impacts the overall pattern.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Oh... and for obvious reasons... Flash Flood Watch is in effect until 8pm this evening for everyone and there are still some flash flood warnings and advisories ongoing this morning in those areas that got rocked last night. Be safe folks going to work this morning. :)
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
cloudy72
Tropical Depression
Posts: 2168
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:22 am
Location: Miamisburg, OH

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by cloudy72 »

Event total only 0.62” here so far LOL! But better than nothing!
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH

The KING of the domes! :king:

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4352
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

2.0" at home and 3.25" in Indian Hill
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Bgoney wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:33 am 2.0" at home and 3.25" in Indian Hill
Wow! I know you were really needing some rain and well, you got it! :lol:
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

cloudy72 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:56 am Event total only 0.62” here so far LOL! But better than nothing!
You're behind Mike... you need to pick up the pace. :lol:
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
tpweather
Hurricane
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Location: Edgewood

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tpweather »

Good Morning and glad to see most folks got a good dose of rainfall. Les your forecast looks good and just waiting to see how the tropics play out over the next week or so.
User avatar
cloudy72
Tropical Depression
Posts: 2168
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 8:22 am
Location: Miamisburg, OH

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by cloudy72 »

tron777 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:41 am
cloudy72 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:56 am Event total only 0.62” here so far LOL! But better than nothing!
You're behind Mike... you need to pick up the pace. :lol:
Ha Ha! Up to 0.71" now so slowly getting there. :lol:
Mike B.
Miamisburg, OH

The KING of the domes! :king:

Image
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4352
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

tron777 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:46 am

Tomorrow and Sat are awesome with temps warming up by Sunday. The humidity is back in full force next week along with 90 degree temps once again. We'll have to see how rain chances look next week once we see how TS Elsa impacts the overall pattern.
First half of July still looking like a fairly normal period temp wise. No big heat waves for the OV with timely cool fronts expected for relief from the high humidity
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

tpweather wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:42 am Good Morning and glad to see most folks got a good dose of rainfall. Les your forecast looks good and just waiting to see how the tropics play out over the next week or so.
Good morning Tim and thanks! We should be able to tack on 2 or 3 90 degree days next week in my opinion thanks to Elsa. Right now, another front looks to come in to keep her well to our SE. A Florida to East Coast track is favored right now. Of course that can easily change down the road.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Bgoney wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:53 am
tron777 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:46 am

Tomorrow and Sat are awesome with temps warming up by Sunday. The humidity is back in full force next week along with 90 degree temps once again. We'll have to see how rain chances look next week once we see how TS Elsa impacts the overall pattern.
First half of July still looking like a fairly normal period temp wise. No big heat waves for the OV with timely cool fronts expected for relief from the high humidity
Exactly! It's just a continuation of the current pattern. A few 90s then we cool down for a bit. Wash, rinse, and repeat.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

cloudy72 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:44 am
tron777 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:41 am
cloudy72 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 6:56 am Event total only 0.62” here so far LOL! But better than nothing!
You're behind Mike... you need to pick up the pace. :lol:
Ha Ha! Up to 0.71" now so slowly getting there. :lol:
That's not bad though! Yours probably soaked in better too since the rate wasn't as heavy as what other areas saw.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
snowbo
EF0 Tornado
Posts: 359
Joined: Sat Feb 27, 2021 9:45 am
Location: Brookville, Ohio

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by snowbo »

1.9" here. 1.0" yesterday and 0.9"overnight. Looks like a little more in my future.
Brookville, Ohio
Northwest Montgomery county
I70 Corridor
tpweather
Hurricane
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Location: Edgewood

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tpweather »

tron777 wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 8:05 am
tpweather wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 7:42 am Good Morning and glad to see most folks got a good dose of rainfall. Les your forecast looks good and just waiting to see how the tropics play out over the next week or so.
Good morning Tim and thanks! We should be able to tack on 2 or 3 90 degree days next week in my opinion thanks to Elsa. Right now, another front looks to come in to keep her well to our SE. A Florida to East Coast track is favored right now. Of course that can easily change down the road.
Good Morning Les and I agree we can get a few 90 degree days and the tropics usually slow down the pattern. My little contest last week for myself is going to turn out okay and getting to that 2.77 rainfall since last week is what I need to hitting the forecast. All for fun but yes their is some thought and math involved.
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

We've got a nice batch of mod to heavy rain moving SE towards us ahead of the front. The back edge is in IND Land attm.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

1.69" at CVG as of 9am.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
young pup
EF4 Tornado
Posts: 733
Joined: Wed Mar 03, 2021 7:13 pm
Location: Grandview ( Westside of downtown CMH)

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by young pup »

Picked up another 9 tenths over night. 2 day total of 1.40 so far. Just started raining again.
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4352
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2021/06/3 ... n-yes-but/

Wow, hurry up and read this article before it is ripped to shreds and never seen again. These two guys really need to watch their backs from now on. Finally someone with the courage to use real science and commen sense and not pretend
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
User avatar
tron777
Major Hurricane
Posts: 22873
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 5:10 pm
Location: Burlington, KY
Contact:

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tron777 »

Bgoney wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:30 am https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2021/06/3 ... n-yes-but/

Wow, hurry up and read this article before it is ripped to shreds and never seen again. These two guys really need to watch their backs from now on. Finally someone with the courage to use real science and commen sense and not pretend
I love this article! Excellent find! Most of us on here have known for the last several years that the NHC names every little swirl or cluster of t-storms out there to push their global warming / liberal / climate change agenda. Nice to see someone finally coming out publicly.
Lester Rhoads
Burlington, KY


AV Facebook Page

Image
tpweather
Hurricane
Posts: 6175
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 6:04 pm
Location: Edgewood

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by tpweather »

Bgoney wrote: Thu Jul 01, 2021 10:30 am https://noaanhc.wordpress.com/2021/06/3 ... n-yes-but/

Wow, hurry up and read this article before it is ripped to shreds and never seen again. These two guys really need to watch their backs from now on. Finally someone with the courage to use real science and commen sense and not pretend
Great article and I try inform my friends on neighbors on this kind of info. I wonder how the media would of handled the 1930's dust bowl. My guess the top story would of been the world is going to end shortly because of the heat and dryness.
User avatar
Bgoney
Tropical Storm
Posts: 4352
Joined: Fri Feb 26, 2021 7:09 pm
Location: East clermont, 3mls north of Williamsburg

Re: July 2021 Weather Discussion

Post by Bgoney »

gfs_T2ma_samer_2.png
gfs_T2ma_samer_fh12-144.gif

In incognito weather,,, Argentina, Uruguay, Paraguay, Bolivia, and BRAZIL, a much larger area than the NW , have seen record breaking cold , freezes and snow recently. Major crop losses in these countries to coffee, sugarcane and corn
You do not have the required permissions to view the files attached to this post.
Proud owner of Best Guess Forecast Center (BGFC)
Former owner of Gut Feeling Forecast (GFF) and Doppler Infinity
I know just enough about weather to be dangerous!
Post Reply