December 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

I like those baby PNA ridges that keep showing up in the long range , just hope they continue when someday Canada can get properly cold. Right now like we’ve been mentioning, it helps the east coast to see better phasing . That east coast storm the EU has a week from now looks like a doozy rain maker and a huge snow maker for higher elevations in the NE

Wonderful post and yes if we can get those ridges to pop up that would be wonderful. Also,need the STJ to head more into California than Mexico as well. Coldest in Russia at the moment is only -40 even with the strong AO. Coldest in Canada is -25 an in Alaska maybe -10 in spots. So not the coldest mid-December ever and part of the reason is the PV which has been around as always has not just sat in one place the past two months so the cold is more widespread and we have seen those little spokes heading south in different parts of the lower latitude.

[Bgoney]

I like those baby PNA ridges that keep showing up in the long range , just hope they continue when someday Canada can get properly cold. Right now like we’ve been mentioning, it helps the east coast to see better phasing . That east coast storm the EU has a week from now looks like a doozy rain maker and a huge snow maker for higher elevations in the NE

Wonderful post and yes if we can get those ridges to pop up that would be wonderful. Also,need the STJ to head more into California than Mexico as well. Coldest in Russia at the moment is only -40 even with the strong AO. Coldest in Canada is -25 an in Alaska maybe -10 in spots. So not the coldest mid-December ever and part of the reason is the PV which has been around as always has not just sat in one place the past two months so the cold is more widespread and we have seen those little spokes heading south in different parts of the lower latitude.

To piggyback on your thoughts , the EU ensembles, sometime during Christmas week show the PACjet shoving moisture more south into Cali. with the STJ still coming across Mexico, (my interpretation) , so probably still means a dryer than normal mid section of the country for a bit longer (maps posted)

And a few maps showing the coldest of the cold you mentioned and its movement projected over the next 5-15 days showing a complete reversal in Russia and parts of China. Which I’m taking as a good sign for now

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[tron777]

The latest JMA and UKMET seasonal models say that the second half of winter should be colder and stormier then the first half. Both models have a Ridge West / Trough East configuration with a -EPO / -NAO (Blocking over the top). So as usual we shall see, but here's to hoping that winter will come a calling in the next 4 weeks.

The MJO forecast models are a bit more interesting today. We go from Phase 6 into the neutral circle then by the end of December, maybe just maybe, it comes back out (in weak fashion) in Phase 8 or 1. We are definitely in Phase 6 now as of 12/10 per the Aussies.

[tron777]

Snow and Ice coverage map for the N. Hemisphere and the second image is snow cover departure from Rutgers Snow lab. It's pretty sad looking of course as we all know.

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[tpweather]

Good Morning and looking at the gfs afternoon run and yes the southeast system will try and merge with the piece of energy to the north and does throw some rain back this way. The biggest item is the high pressure in eastern Canada. This is a very strong high that is even keeping the system from making much northward progress. Again eastern Canada is way above in terms of snowfall no matter what certain maps show and that is why its always good to keep abreast of weather around the world when they send this snowfall maps or whatever because sometimes they are incorrect.

Gone for much of the day but will return this evening to see if any changes are starting to show up. That will happen once the models grasp the mjo correctly and hopefully that is before this weekend.

[Bgoney]

Minor change on 12z EU in that it shows a moisture starved disturbance out of the NW flow over top the baby western ridge resulting in very light precip over the weekend, also Still showing a coastal hugger rain maker mostly for late weekend and early next week, resulting in a backside flow cooldown much like what we have now and seen throughout fall

[tron777]

50 at CVG today, 51 here. 18Z GFS has some light rain Sun evening thru Monday for folks SE of I-71. Otherwise same ole, same ole.

[Trevor]

50 at CVG today, 51 here. 18Z GFS has some light rain Sun evening thru Monday for folks SE of I-71. Otherwise same ole, same ole.

That is one deep low! Very impressive. Could be quite a Florida svr wx outbreak.

[tron777]

50 at CVG today, 51 here. 18Z GFS has some light rain Sun evening thru Monday for folks SE of I-71. Otherwise same ole, same ole.

That is one deep low! Very impressive. Could be quite a Florida svr wx outbreak.

West KY / TN may need to watch out again around Christmas as well.

[Bgoney]

Well , going to keep showing the 15 day EPS 500mb forecast and at this range just using it to track air masses. it’s been very good at this range this season . We can now go to the 27th and still showing ridges and troughs in all the wrong places continuing if you want winter weather in the mid section of US. And southern Canada. The temp anomalies map are 850s and surface

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[tron777]

Yep! I've already punted the rest of December for snow lovers. We should go snowless IMHO. And its not just us in the OV. Much of the country is running well below avg in snowfall.

[tron777]

Good morning all and the biggest change to the forecast now is to bring back rain chances on Sunday. We either get some light rain from the upper low (CMC / Euro) or moderate rain Sunday into Monday due to a full on phase with the STJ (GFS). Too bad there is no cold air to work with. Sigh...

[Bgoney]

GFS op is struggling as usual with the weekend coastal . GEFs similar to the EPS . Still looks like a moisture starved shortwave moving through for us on the weekend with qpf on the light side

[Trevor]

Good morning all and the biggest change to the forecast now is to bring back rain chances on Sunday. We either get some light rain from the upper low (CMC / Euro) or moderate rain Sunday into Monday due to a full on phase with the STJ (GFS). Too bad there is no cold air to work with. Sigh...

I am with you there! There is enough guidance showing some precipitation to need it to be added to the forecast.

[tpweather]

I agree some light rain is possible very late Saturday and early Sunday. Though this pattern is bad in terms of snow temp wise we are not any surges of really warm weather like you see with many El Nino's. We will still be slightly above average as a whole for the next week.

[Bgoney]

I agree some light rain is possible very late Saturday and early Sunday. Though this pattern is bad in terms of snow temp wise we are not any surges of really warm weather like you see with many El Nino's. We will still be slightly above average as a whole for the next week.

Huge reason we haven’t been warmer is the long running absence of any Atlantic ridging, be it Mid Atlantic, SE or GOM

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a cold December day. At the moment the coldest temp I could find is -40 in Siberia. Last year during the last year of a La Nina Siberia had that very cold spell with temps near -80. This season so far has seen a couple of days at -50 or so but mainly in the -30 - 40 range. After we had that blizzard last year and then January of this year is when we warmed up the PV became very strong and why they saw the temps at -80. This season and yes the PV is there but and has gotten stronger but it still is able to throw spokes of cold to the lower latitudes. I will continue to watch this and see if changes are occurring but so far the status quo. Still cold in northern Europe and also getting cold in Alaska but there its more of a normal cold and nothing off the charts by any means.

Still concerned about lack of snow on this side of the world. Besides the mountains out west and the northeast very little snow on the ground. Hopefully this will change as we head into the last 10 days of December even if that does not mean snow for us maybe we can see some in the northern plains and upper mid-west. Need to get those systems out west to head into California instead of Mexico as a more northward track will help in getting a few storms to phase before it hits the east coast.

[Trevor]

Good Morning and a cold December day. At the moment the coldest temp I could find is -40 in Siberia. Last year during the last year of a La Nina Siberia had that very cold spell with temps near -80. This season so far has seen a couple of days at -50 or so but mainly in the -30 - 40 range. After we had that blizzard last year and then January of this year is when we warmed up the PV became very strong and why they saw the temps at -80. This season and yes the PV is there but and has gotten stronger but it still is able to throw spokes of cold to the lower latitudes. I will continue to watch this and see if changes are occurring but so far the status quo. Still cold in northern Europe and also getting cold in Alaska but there its more of a normal cold and nothing off the charts by any means.

Still concerned about lack of snow on this side of the world. Besides the mountains out west and the northeast very little snow on the ground. Hopefully this will change as we head into the last 10 days of December even if that does not mean snow for us maybe we can see some in the northern plains and upper mid-west. Need to get those systems out west to head into California instead of Mexico as a more northward track will help in getting a few storms to phase before it hits the east coast.

I’m not really optimistic that the Plains and Midwest will do well in the snow cover department for the foreseeable future. I don’t think we can bank on that helping for much of the winter. They don’t do well in strong El Niños. Should keep our cold outbreaks in check going forward.

[tpweather]

Trev they will get snow and that is not my concern but snow depth is more of a concern. Can they get a good base of at least 6 inches in most spots and hopefully upwards of a foot. I agree the cold outbreaks from that area may not be as strong though I believe cold outbreaks from eastern Canada is more likely as they will have some decent coverage. Over the years getting cold outbreaks from eastern Canada usually happened in Feb and March and maybe we can get lucky to have a few in January this season. Eastern Canada is one of the last places to warm up in the spring as well and with added snow this season this can no doubt delay spring and summer in the mid-west. Seen many outbreaks over the years where parts of the northeast USA can see snow in May for this reason.

[Trevor]

Trev they will get snow and that is not my concern but snow depth is more of a concern. Can they get a good base of at least 6 inches in most spots and hopefully upwards of a foot. I agree the cold outbreaks from that area may not be as strong though I believe cold outbreaks from eastern Canada is more likely as they will have some decent coverage. Over the years getting cold outbreaks from eastern Canada usually happened in Feb and March and maybe we can get lucky to have a few in January this season. Eastern Canada is one of the last places to warm up in the spring as well and with added snow this season this can no doubt delay spring and summer in the mid-west. Seen many outbreaks over the years where parts of the northeast USA can see snow in May for this reason.

Right I’m talking about snow depth. I just don’t see it improving any time soon. In fact, I don’t see a substantial snow depth deep enough to help us with the cold happening at all this winter.

[tron777]

From around Christmas onwards, the OP GFS has been trending a bit cooler now with minimal chances for precip. We'll see if it's a mirage or not going forward. The AO and NAO look to start falling back towards neutral by then instead of being very positive, so hopefully a better sign ahead to end December and begin January. I know things look tough for snow lovers so this is the best I can do attm.

[winterstormjoe]

From around Christmas onwards, the OP GFS has been trending a bit cooler now with minimal chances for precip. We'll see if it's a mirage or not going forward. The AO and NAO look to start falling back towards neutral by then instead of being very positive, so hopefully a better sign ahead to end December and begin January. I know things look tough for snow lovers so this is the best I can do attm.

Les, I've been noticing that too on the latest runs, if true I hope spokes of energy can move across the country from the strong ULL off the west coast to give us a little snow wienie love. They will have to move just south of us of course, but I can't get ahead of myself on this just yet! Better times ahead. I hope!!

[Bgoney]

What we’re competing with for the November/December period

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[tron777]

What we’re competing with for the November/December period






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If I recall, most of those winters on that list except for one, were absolute duds for snowfall. This is not a good list to be on if history is in indication. Hopefully, we can make some sort of a comeback!

[tron777]

18Z GFS is back to showing a pretty wet Sun and Mon period with a full phase and an Apps runner type track. This continues to be the only model doing this as the 12Z CM and Euro continue to only bring in light rain with the northern stream feature on Sat night into Sunday.