December 2023 Weather Discussion

[Pete1]

For now... in the short term, I am going dry thru Saturday. I'm not sure yet about Sunday if we get that phase or not. Regardless, we're either dry with no phase or a big rain maker if we do phase since we have zero cold air to work with.

In that case, I vote for dry with no phase. Big rainmakers in December are just so depressing!!

[tron777]

For now... in the short term, I am going dry thru Saturday. I'm not sure yet about Sunday if we get that phase or not. Regardless, we're either dry with no phase or a big rain maker if we do phase since we have zero cold air to work with.

In that case, I vote for dry with no phase. Big rainmakers in December are just so depressing!!

They are, but I hate boring weather all the same.

[airwolf76]

getting a nice soaking tonight. 1-2 inches of rain then turning over to snow around 5 am . December has been a nice month so far and hoping any extreme cold an d snow can hold off till after Christmas or early January

[tron777]

Good morning all! A boring week of weather ahead. Cool to start the week with the 50s returning by the end of the week and this coming weekend. So far, that storm I have been eye balling for Sunday does not look to phase and it stays well south and east of here. If that changes, I will let you know but for now, boring is the operative weather word for this week.

The latest OP GFS looks boring right on into Christmas on the 0Z run. I still think sometime around Christmas will be our next storm to keep an eye on but for now, the next 1-2 weeks, not much happening. It's odd. We're not even getting a rain maker every 3 or 4 days which is typical in a strong El Nino with the active STJ. The STJ usually comes into CA and not Mexico and Texas so that is part of the problem there with regards to active weather. So far, it's been hard to get a phase with the polar jet since we have no amplification of the jet stream pattern. We've lost the blocking. Until that returns, we are in no man's land with regards to weather systems.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and Les your reading my mind lol. I was about to post why the earlier time period for the pattern change looks almost dead. That is the STJ and how its coming into Mexico instead of California like you stated. By doing this storms do not get their act together over us and when they do they head to the north Atlantic. This does not allow any big storm to bring the colder air further south and west. Sure after a storm we briefly turn cold but just an average cold for mid-December.

The STJ does not stop once it hits the east coast but heads straight to Europe and this brings storminess to them with several big snow storms to the UK and Germany plus other areas but allows for the cold air to head south over much of Europe though some folks well south remain near average.

[Bgoney]

Weekly ElNino update from CPC 3.4 region down to +1.9c

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The last 4 weeks change , looks like Mr. Elnino has suffered some serious shrinkage in the now cooling equatorial waters

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[tpweather]

Bgoney,I believe there was a Seinfeld episode about shrinkage

[tron777]

Hey Tim... IMO things will continue to look bleak for snow lovers and active weather lovers until we can re-established the blocking, namely over Alaska. We need a ridge to be there instead of an upper low. The Pacific jet will be in full force flooding us with milder air until we get some pattern / jet stream amplification. Hopefully in early January we will see that. If not then mid January once the El Nino begins to weaken its grip. I know this is NOT the news that people want to hear, myself included, but at the same time, I'm not going to sit here and tell a bunch of lies either.

MJO Update: Per the Aussies it is just about ready to cross into Phase 6 as of 12/9 so it is likely already there as of today. All forecast models show the MJO weakening and plunging into the neutral circle never making it into Phase 7, 8 etc. We touched upon the reasons why last week and that still looks to be the case this week. The AO / NAO are positive and look to stay that way thru at least the end of the year with a +EPO as well. The PNA could go positive but unless it goes poleward towards the North Pole it's kind of pointless anyway.

[Trevor]

Hey Tim... IMO things will continue to look bleak for snow lovers and active weather lovers until we can re-established the blocking, namely over Alaska. We need a ridge to be there instead of an upper low. The Pacific jet will be in full force flooding us with milder air until we get some pattern / jet stream amplification. Hopefully in early January we will see that. If not then mid January once the El Nino begins to weaken its grip. I know this is NOT the news that people want to hear, myself included, but at the same time, I'm not going to sit here and tell a bunch of lies either.

MJO Update: Per the Aussies it is just about ready to cross into Phase 6 as of 12/9 so it is likely already there as of today. All forecast models show the MJO weakening and plunging into the neutral circle never making it into Phase 7, 8 etc. We touched upon the reasons why last week and that still looks to be the case this week. The AO / NAO are positive and look to stay that way thru at least the end of the year with a +EPO as well. The PNA could go positive but unless it goes poleward towards the North Pole it's kind of pointless anyway.

Yeah man that’s why I’m not expecting any changes through at least week one of January, probably longer.

[tron777]

Hey Tim... IMO things will continue to look bleak for snow lovers and active weather lovers until we can re-established the blocking, namely over Alaska. We need a ridge to be there instead of an upper low. The Pacific jet will be in full force flooding us with milder air until we get some pattern / jet stream amplification. Hopefully in early January we will see that. If not then mid January once the El Nino begins to weaken its grip. I know this is NOT the news that people want to hear, myself included, but at the same time, I'm not going to sit here and tell a bunch of lies either.

MJO Update: Per the Aussies it is just about ready to cross into Phase 6 as of 12/9 so it is likely already there as of today. All forecast models show the MJO weakening and plunging into the neutral circle never making it into Phase 7, 8 etc. We touched upon the reasons why last week and that still looks to be the case this week. The AO / NAO are positive and look to stay that way thru at least the end of the year with a +EPO as well. The PNA could go positive but unless it goes poleward towards the North Pole it's kind of pointless anyway.

Yeah man that’s why I’m not expecting any changes through at least week one of January, probably longer.

Shoot! I was hoping you'd be posting something to save us, Trev!

[Bgoney]

Just noticed the November QBO was - 19.80 , which means by now it is in the -20s and ever closer to the stage of being a hindrance more than a help

[tron777]

12Z GFS is trying to bring the Sunday system back from the dead showing better phasing and us getting skimmed by the rain shield Sun night. Nothing else really to report on the run other then that.

[Trevor]

12Z GFS is trying to bring the Sunday system back from the dead showing better phasing and us getting skimmed by the rain shield Sun night. Nothing else really to report on the run other then that.

Yeah with no support from any other guidance I will be leaving the weekend dry.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is trying to bring the Sunday system back from the dead showing better phasing and us getting skimmed by the rain shield Sun night. Nothing else really to report on the run other then that.

Yeah with no support from any other guidance I will be leaving the weekend dry.

Totally agree!

[tron777]

41 here today, CVG topped out at 40.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 40 and both DAY / CMH 37 today.

[Bgoney]

IMG_1006.jpeg

[Bgoney]

MJO forecast from the GEFS and EU have done the best for the month , CFS/BOMM were a joke and a huge noise maker. Good news is both GFS and EU have the MJO slowly moving back into the western hemisphere late December at low amplitude for now. Hopefully the EU ensembles start showing some improvement at the 500mb level in a week or so for the new year, as there is a long way to go and a lot to improve

[Trevor]

IMG_1006.jpeg

Looking pretty dry through 45 days as well. Pretty typical El Niño look.

[tpweather]

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Looking pretty dry through 45 days as well. Pretty typical El Niño look.

This is the perfect map of what this El Nino has produced this year. Wet along the gulf coast and up to northeast Canada which will have a banner year for snow which also extends into Europe. We are dry and the northern and central plains will have lack of snow. Still believe we get a couple of really big storms locally when the pattern changes but again can we cash in big on the winter side. So far we are near 6 degrees above normal for December and probably will up somewhere in that area before all is said and done. That is fine and hopefully in Jan and Feb are 3 degrees below normal to get us back to normal.

[tron777]

Below avg precip doesn't bother me if it was cold and in the form of snow but with above avg temps and below normal precip, that spells major boredom! This has to be the most boring start to Met winter I have seen in a very long time!

[airwolf76]

Below avg precip doesn't bother me if it was cold and in the form of snow but with above avg temps and below normal precip, that spells major boredom! This has to be the most boring start to Met winter I have seen in a very long time!

this gives us what we need to get things done though and with the major Holiday coming it makes things easier if its dry and warmer. id rather have it like this now then in early to mid January. my dream was for it to be warmer and dry through most of this month and then let us have it come the new year. i am not throwing in my towel i think we still end up with an average winter. it just takes time to get there

[tron777]

Below avg precip doesn't bother me if it was cold and in the form of snow but with above avg temps and below normal precip, that spells major boredom! This has to be the most boring start to Met winter I have seen in a very long time!

this gives us what we need to get things done though and with the major Holiday coming it makes things easier if its dry and warmer. id rather have it like this now then in early to mid January. my dream was for it to be warmer and dry through most of this month and then let us have it come the new year. i am not throwing in my towel i think we still end up with an average winter. it just takes time to get there

I'm not throwing in the towel for the entire winter, that's silly, but I am for December though. I think most folks are even pro Mets. We shall see what happens in January. We are a long ways off from 2024 yet in the weather world.

[tron777]

Good morning all! 27 this morning at CVG, 29 here so it least it feels like December is supposed to feel this morning. Still looking at a dry pattern thru this weekend at least as long as the Sunday system continues to stay to the south. 0Z GFS keeps us dry now until 12/26 Amazing! 0Z Euro is also bone dry for the next 10 days.

[Bgoney]

I like those baby PNA ridges that keep showing up in the long range , just hope they continue when someday Canada can get properly cold. Right now like we’ve been mentioning, it helps the east coast to see better phasing . That east coast storm the EU has a week from now looks like a doozy rain maker and a huge snow maker for higher elevations in the NE