November 2023 Weather Discussion

[Trevor]

Should be cleared out by noon based on satellite. Record is in jeopardy. Like Les said I went 78 but we may just make it! We shall see of course.

[tron777]

Good morning Trev! Seeing a touch of sun here IMBY. Winds are SE so the warm front should be moving into and thru the area soon as you mentioned. Temps will sky rocket once the southerly flow / full on sunshine kicks in. Winds will also increase as the boundary layer mixes. Already, it is a bit breezy outside. I expect winds gusting to 30-35 mph easily this afternoon.

[Trevor]

Good morning Trev! Seeing a touch of sun here IMBY. Winds are SE so the warm front should be moving into and thru the area soon as you mentioned. Temps will sky rocket once the southerly flow / full on sunshine kicks in. Winds will also increase as the boundary layer mixes. Already, it is a bit breezy outside. I expect winds gusting to 30-35 mph easily this afternoon.

NAM run has come in windier for this evening/tonight with the frontal passage.

[tron777]

Good morning Trev! Seeing a touch of sun here IMBY. Winds are SE so the warm front should be moving into and thru the area soon as you mentioned. Temps will sky rocket once the southerly flow / full on sunshine kicks in. Winds will also increase as the boundary layer mixes. Already, it is a bit breezy outside. I expect winds gusting to 30-35 mph easily this afternoon.

NAM run has come in windier for this evening/tonight with the frontal passage.

Sounds good to me! The sooner the oak leaves come down, the sooner my leaf grinding season ends.

[tron777]

Most reporting stations in Southern and Western KY are reporting sunny skies. LOU now reporting partly to mostly sunny skies. Even partly sunny now IMBY and at CVG. We still have SE winds but LOU now has S winds so the warm front is on the move. This may happen a bit earlier then expected. If so, U70s to perhaps 80 is absolutely reachable. Should be interesting to see what happens as the day continues to unfold.

[Trevor]

It's closing in! Shouldn't be long now.

[Trevor]

A "textbook" baroclinic leaf to our north at the moment.

[tpweather]

I am going to stick with 77 as a high. Folks south of the front yesterday were mainly upper 70's and an 80 here and there. Early November and if we had a huge storm to the northwest and temps starting out in the low-mid-60's I would go higher but even I am worried 77 may be to high. No doubt some sun the last hour or so but still its mainly partly to mostly cloudy. That should change over the next couple of hours and should see a nice rise to the low 70's by 1pm or so. The problem of course is we run out of daylight and this time of year never easy to get those few extra degree between 3pm and dark.

[tron777]

A "textbook" baroclinic leaf to our north at the moment.

I'd like to see that about 300-400 miles further to the south please in about a month and a half or two months from now. Please and thank you.

[Trevor]

I am going to stick with 77 as a high. Folks south of the front yesterday were mainly upper 70's and an 80 here and there. Early November and if we had a huge storm to the northwest and temps starting out in the low-mid-60's I would go higher but even I am worried 77 may be to high. No doubt some sun the last hour or so but still its mainly partly to mostly cloudy. That should change over the next couple of hours and should see a nice rise to the low 70's by 1pm or so. The problem of course is we run out of daylight and this time of year never easy to get those few extra degree between 3pm and dark.

No doubt we'd be even warmer (lower 80s) if we were dealing with a stronger cyclone.

[tron777]

I am going to stick with 77 as a high. Folks south of the front yesterday were mainly upper 70's and an 80 here and there. Early November and if we had a huge storm to the northwest and temps starting out in the low-mid-60's I would go higher but even I am worried 77 may be to high. No doubt some sun the last hour or so but still its mainly partly to mostly cloudy. That should change over the next couple of hours and should see a nice rise to the low 70's by 1pm or so. The problem of course is we run out of daylight and this time of year never easy to get those few extra degree between 3pm and dark.

I'm checking temps to our South and West and once the warm front passes, temps should jump 10+ degrees. Louisville is at 66, CVG 57 as of this post as an example. I even see a few 70 degree readings as well and its only 9:30 in the morning.

[tron777]

Mid morning update from the boys... basically rehashing everything we have been saying.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early morning showers within the CWA have tapered off, leaving
more comprehensive shower activity to our north. Surface obs
indicate that the warm front associated with the low pressure
system to our west (currently around the NE/MO border) is
currently lifting into our southern CWA. Winds will continue to
veer more southerly and warm air advection begins in earnest.

In addition to this, clouds are forecast to thin throughout the
afternoon and most areas should see sunshine. With the WAA and
insolation, anticipate afternoon high temperatures to get close
to(possibly even break) record criteria several sites. Current
records are as follows: CVG 79F in 2020, CMH 78F in 2020, DAY
80F in 2020.

[tron777]

[winterstormjoe]

Mid morning update from the boys... basically rehashing everything we have been saying.

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Early morning showers within the CWA have tapered off, leaving
more comprehensive shower activity to our north. Surface obs
indicate that the warm front associated with the low pressure
system to our west (currently around the NE/MO border) is
currently lifting into our southern CWA. Winds will continue to
veer more southerly and warm air advection begins in earnest.

In addition to this, clouds are forecast to thin throughout the
afternoon and most areas should see sunshine. With the WAA and
insolation, anticipate afternoon high temperatures to get close
to(possibly even break) record criteria several sites. Current
records are as follows: CVG 79F in 2020, CMH 78F in 2020, DAY
80F in 2020.

Yeah, we (Fairfield) had a brief shower this morning with 50 degrees around 7:30 am. It added some moisture to the air so it may feel a little more humid today compared to yesterday.

[tron777]

Yeah, we (Fairfield) had a brief shower this morning with 50 degrees around 7:30 am. It added some moisture to the air so it may feel a little more humid today compared to yesterday.

No doubt! Dews will rise into the 50s once the warm front passes.

[Trevor]

Dew points approaching 60 as close as Louisville. We should see ours in the low 60s by this evening ahead of the front.

[tron777]

Dew points approaching 60 as close as Louisville. We should see ours in the low 60s by this evening ahead of the front.

Wow... Pretty amazing for November.

70 now at CVG. 71 at the Boone Co mesonet site. 76 at the Carroll Co KY mesonet site.

[tron777]

12Z GFS shows a slower arrival for the 18-20th system to Monday the 20th now. The slower arrival makes sense as it's going to take a while for the big ridge to break down. We look to be dry next week thru potentially next weekend if this is correct.

[tron777]

As of 12:40pm 75 at CVG.

[tron777]

77 as of 2pm at CVG.

[tron777]

12Z Euro shows some scattered light shower activity Fri and Sat of next week ahead of the aforementioned trough. The GFS showed it also the other day but has since gotten rid of it. For now... look for forecast changes late next week and beyond. Until then mainly zzzzzzzz.

[Trevor]

79 at CVG now so the record is tied. Let’s see if we can hit that 80! Either way a forecast success today for sure!

[tron777]

79 at CVG now so the record is tied. Let’s see if we can hit that 80! Either way a forecast success today for sure!

As much as I like cold and snow, what the hell. Let's do it!

[Trevor]

A couple of images from the latest GFS Extended Ensemble (00z run from last night).

Total preip and total snow.

[Trevor]

I’d love to see 4” of precip over the next month and change especially given how dry it’s been (Nino-related of course). Like we have been discussing, the model does show a flip to wetter after Thanksgiving.