November 2023 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

Looking good! Here is another perspective from Rutgers University's Snow Lab:

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[tron777]

12Z GFS continues to show a fast moving front coming in on Sunday the 5th followed by a decent shot of rain on Monday the 6th with a lingering shower possible on Election Day the 7th. 12Z Canadian washes out the front on Sunday showing no precip. Dry on Monday with that strong t-storm look again for Election Day with rain continuing into Wed the 8th. Models continue to diverge for next week's forecast.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is back to showing what the Canadian is showing for early next week. Timing is faster with the low / cold front passing thru Monday night but anyway... it's nice to see the pattern finally turning more active again. At least we have stuff to track again instead of days / weeks on end with nothing happening. So it's a start!

[airwolf76]

Looks like a pretty good Halloween day coming. partly cloudy cool breeze with highs around 50

[tron777]

We still have that weak / fast moving front this Sunday, otherwise the bigger story is for next week. The Euro continues to be aggressive with a big storm system Nov 7-8th timeframe next week. T-storms to wrap around snow flakes if this solution is right with a strong low wrapping up across Western Ohio. CMC is not quite as strong with the low but still a healthy rain maker. The GFS continues to be more progressive with NW Flow and not much of anything occurring. We shall see!

[tron777]

Today's 12Z GFS IMO has taken a step towards the foreign models. A warm front passes thru this coming Sunday then the cold front comes in Monday night with a band of showers. I still believe the model is too progressive though. The 12Z CMC is slower passing the warm front thru on Monday then we get rain / t-storms late Mon night into Election Day with wrap around showers Tues night possibly ending as a flurry early Wed. My forecast at this time, is going to side with the foreign model solutions with a more dynamic storm system early next week. I checked the GFS Ensemble members and they too are siding with the foreign model solution. The operational GFS should get a clue in future runs. Election Day could be wet if my forecast pans out.

[tron777]

The Euro is now back to showing a much weaker solution again with a low along a frontal passage basically Mon late afternoon and evening. It's going to be a long winter at this rate with the model flip-flopping going on. Don't you love it? The low does strengthen as it moves through but this solution looks nothing like past solutions at all. You know my call and I am sticking with it. I currently expect rain and / or t-storms at some point early next week with the timing TBD followed by wrap around showers perhaps ending as a flake or two (although that is a long shot). My best guess on timing right now, subject to change, is Mon night thru Tues night.

[Bgoney]

I think a weaker system is more likely , not a big temp difference across the country with a flat pac flow , unlike what we just had

[tron777]

Good morning all! Not as cold this morning thanks to cloud cover but still, temps are near or just below freezing for most folks. Clouds will clear out today with highs in the mid 40s. Another hard freeze tonight with clear skies and lows into the 20s. Then, we begin to moderate and this weekend looks pretty good with highs in the low 60s (maybe mid 60s Sunday?) and lows in the 40s. Pretty typical for early November. Our next system is due in late Monday into Election Day with some rainfall. Temps will drop behind the front once again but not as cold as we are right now.

Oh and Bgoney... so far, great call! The weaker version of next week's system is now fully agreed upon by all global models.

[Bgoney]

Only 32 for yesterday and today here, not a killing freeze, the fall veggie garden still going strong

[Bgoney]

MJO predictability remains pretty simple the next 10-14 days at least

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[tron777]

Agreed... MJO is in Phase 1 then it goes into the neutral circle then comes back out in either 7 or 8 then eventually by mid month it is back into Phase 1 again. The Tellies (AO, NAO, and PNA) all look to remain around neutral for the next 10 days or so as well.

EPS / GEFS both show another trough in that Nov 8-11th window then ridging builds in after that thru mid month so we should get some milder weather in here as we've been expecting on our forum.

[MVWxObserver]

Pretty outside with that patchy thin coating of white.

Currently 28 here in G'ville and progged for around 41 today.

[tron777]

29 officially at CVG this morning. I'm thinking the mid 20s for tomorrow morning since we'll have clear skies and light winds. The only thing that I can see that would stop us from getting down towards that 25 degree mark are the light S winds. When does that kick in will be key to how low we actually can get. The light S wind is what will begin our warm up back into the 50s by tomorrow.

[Bgoney]

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[tron777]

Awesome! I would imagine we could see a few more record lows fall tomorrow morning as well.

[tron777]

Public Information Statement
National Weather Service Wilmington OH
1000 AM EDT Tue Oct 31 2023

...THE FROST AND FREEZE PROGRAM HAS ENDED FOR THE 2023 SEASON...

The National Weather Service in Wilmington Ohio has discontinued
the frost and freeze program for 2023. Temperatures this morning
dropped below freezing for much of the region, ending the growing
season. Temperatures below freezing are also expected during the
morning hours of November 1 and November 2.

This will be the last statement that will be issued this fall
regarding frost and freeze concerns in our forecast area.

The frost and freeze program will resume at the start of the
growing season next spring.

[tron777]

A little bit of a change on the 12Z GFS for next week. We get several impulses along a boundary to bring rain chances to us late Mon into Election Day morning, late Tues into Wed morning, with a final one Wed night into Thurs morning. Another system around the 12-13th then we turn much warmer at the end of the run which is to be expected. I expect a pretty warm period coming up by mid month lasting thru Thanksgiving. I then expect another cold shot late in this month into early December. We'll see how this line of thinking works out as the month goes along.

[tron777]

12Z Canadian is back to the stronger single storm idea again showing a deepening low moving thru our area and giving us rain chances Tues afternoon thru Wed.

[tron777]

LOL! 12Z Euro shows very little precip early next week. We went from seeing decent agreement yesterday among the three global models to all three now having a completely different solution.

[Bgoney]

LOL! 12Z Euro shows very little precip early next week. We went from seeing decent agreement yesterday among the three global models to all three now having a completely different solution.

Still think a weaker solution is most likely. A quasi stalled out boundary with no cold air on north side and no SE ridge on the other . Weak ripples along the boundary leading to light precip at times . Maybe a hair more than the EU is showing bit nothing to get excited about. Later next week might hold some better qpf potential

[tron777]

LOL! 12Z Euro shows very little precip early next week. We went from seeing decent agreement yesterday among the three global models to all three now having a completely different solution.

Still think a weaker solution is most likely. A quasi stalled out boundary with no cold air on north side and no SE ridge on the other . Weak ripples along the boundary leading to light precip at times . Maybe a hair more than the EU is showing bit nothing to get excited about. Later next week might hold some better qpf potential

Sounds reasonable. Models do look a bit better later next week too. Gotta love the model shenanigans already and it's only Nov 1st! It's typical though. I think we are all pretty used to it but I do still get a laugh from time to time.

[MVWxObserver]

LOL! 12Z Euro shows very little precip early next week. We went from seeing decent agreement yesterday among the three global models to all three now having a completely different solution.

Still think a weaker solution is most likely. A quasi stalled out boundary with no cold air on north side and no SE ridge on the other . Weak ripples along the boundary leading to light precip at times . Maybe a hair more than the EU is showing bit nothing to get excited about. Later next week might hold some better qpf potential

Sounds reasonable. Models do look a bit better later next week too. Gotta love the model shenanigans already and it's only Nov 1st! It's typical though. I think we are all pretty used to it but I do still get a laugh from time to time.

At times its like the models are doing a "Who's on 1st, who's on 2nd"!

[MVWxObserver]

Got to 46 at CVG / DAY and 45 CMH today.