Rocktober 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

After this second round moves thru, we get another small break but look back off to the West. Round 3 is developing with a few t-storms embedded in that line as well. This will be our best chance at seeing any heavy rain this evening. Then we see more light showery type of weather overnight and tomorrow. I still say CVG misses on the clipper showers Sat, but DAY and CMH are certainly in line to receive additional light rain then.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and up to 0.16 so not bad so far. Another decent round heading this way this evening. Friday is one of those days where the showers can be intense at times but more scattered and sort of like the snow showers we get in the winter where it can rain hard for a good 15-30 minutes and you can get a quick 0.10-0.15 but not all areas receive. That is why I did the 6 city average concerning the current system. Still believe models are a tad to far north and east with the back edge of showers on Saturday and will see by Friday how that looks. Still expect some clouds on Sunday especially the further north and east it may not clear out at all. Next week looks nice through probably about Thursday and that is when I am heading north looking for winter lol

[tron777]

No additional rainfall has occurred here since my last post but the radar off to the West shows more showers with embedded t-storms moving into the area this evening. Would love to double the rainfall amount from earlier with this activity. A few areas may do that.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice little rainfall and so far 0.54 at my house with more scattered showers today. I seemed to complain about the models often and for good reason but yesterday they increased the rainfall amounts for this system and were correct. I will miss the forecast as I thought 0.25-0.50 would be the most likely outcome and will end up being on the low side which is a good thing in this case. Back later once I have my morning coffee.

[MVWxObserver]

I don't know how much has fallen here in G'ville so far as I haven't yet established a rain gauge position.

Will be so glad when our 3rd and final phase of the move is completed tomorrow (Sat) as my folks, too!

Currently 50 here in G'ville and progged to top out at around 57.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 61, DAY 62 and CMH 66 yesterday.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

HAPPY 44TH BIRTHDAY AARON!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

[tron777]

Good morning! In this area, most locations got between 0.50 and 0.75" A much needed rainfall! Nice job Tim on going with those higher totals. We will tack on a tad more today and areas north of Cincy with the clipper tomorrow.

[tpweather]

HAPPY 44TH BIRTHDAY AARON!!

Enjoy your special day, Wxbuddy!

Happy Birthday Aaron!!!

[tpweather]

Good morning! In this area, most locations got between 0.50 and 0.75" A much needed rainfall! Nice job Tim on going with those higher totals. We will tack on a tad more today and areas north of Cincy with the clipper tomorrow.

Good Morning Les and I though somebody would exceed 1/2 inch but more widespread than I expected. Saturday is an interesting day as we have a clipper heading this way and no doubt models and you as well have pointed towards a more northerly track. Just like the clippers in the winter where you live can make a world of difference. North and east of the track and 50's with showers but south and west of the track sunny,windy but highs in the mid-upper 60's. Winds will be an issue as well. Will Columbus or Cincinnati be the dividing line. The gfs and euro both have Columbus and the cmc is south of Columbus and north of Cincinnati but the cmc also has some showers for Sunday. Has me worried about my forecast for the weekend but will look at more date today but trends are key in making forecast so if the trend is to keep it further north and east I may need to change my thoughts but again I am a stubborn old man lol

[tron777]

Happy Birthday Aaron! I hope you have a great day today!!!

[tron777]

Good morning! In this area, most locations got between 0.50 and 0.75" A much needed rainfall! Nice job Tim on going with those higher totals. We will tack on a tad more today and areas north of Cincy with the clipper tomorrow.

Good Morning Les and I though somebody would exceed 1/2 inch but more widespread than I expected. Saturday is an interesting day as we have a clipper heading this way and no doubt models and you as well have pointed towards a more northerly track. Just like the clippers in the winter where you live can make a world of difference. North and east of the track and 50's with showers but south and west of the track sunny,windy but highs in the mid-upper 60's. Winds will be an issue as well. Will Columbus or Cincinnati be the dividing line. The gfs and euro both have Columbus and the cmc is south of Columbus and north of Cincinnati but the cmc also has some showers for Sunday. Has me worried about my forecast for the weekend but will look at more date today but trends are key in making forecast so if the trend is to keep it further north and east I may need to change my thoughts but again I am a stubborn old man lol

I was too low with regards to rainfall amounts but the weekend forecast I have I think is good with I-70 folks having the best chance at the clipper and we are warm and windy down here as you said. Cooler on Sunday behind the clipper. Frost chance is there Mon morning of next week then the 70s return. A weak system will try and bring in a shower or two Wed night into Thurs so that may knock temps back down a tad. I have 3 days in the 70s next week. It may only be two.

[tpweather]

Hopefully we are turning the corner on rainfall and these systems finally start producing more and more rain. Next week looks mild after a frosty start Monday morning. Les we are on the same page with 70's and two for sure and like you mentioned may be 3 depending on the timing. By the end of the week hopefully a strong cold front will produce more rains. Then how cold will we get and it depends on if the cold air sinks further south or heads off to the east. No doubt it get colder but how cold is still not decided. One model run will show it heading more east the next further south before heading east. I will be in Wisconsin and no doubt cold there and hopefully some snow falling. Leaving the 26th of the month but will be back on the 2nd of Nov so hopefully I can harness some of the cold and snow and bring it southward. After the cold snap I do expect temps to once again rise for the 2nd week of Nov. Heading to Hilton Head on the 11th of Nov for a week to play golf so hoping for warm and dry for that week.

[young pup]

IMG_4752.png

I made sure my rain gauges were empty yesterday. One has 8 tenths and the other has 9 tenths. That should settle the dust for a bit.

[Bgoney]

.90” in Indian hill , .70” at B’goney plaza. All overachievers are welcome

IMG_0717.jpeg

[tpweather]

Bgoney this time you got more than me which has not happened much in the past several months. Nice to get a few more events like this and it does help though still much more needed but getting these kind of systems it does soak in quite a bit as some vegetation is already packing up for the winter.

[Bgoney]

Bgoney this time you got more than me which has not happened much in the past several months. Nice to get a few more events like this and it does help though still much more needed but getting these kind of systems it does soak in quite a bit as some vegetation is already packing up for the winter.

Absolutely, we need the frequency of these events to keep coming.

[tron777]

Glad to see folks like Bgoney cashing in who truly needed the rain more then most of our posters. Looks like the backedge of the wrap around precip is about over for some of us anyway. Can't rule out additional showers but the widespread rains look to be about over with.

[tpweather]

Glad to see folks like Bgoney cashing in who truly needed the rain more then most of our posters. Looks like the backedge of the wrap around precip is about over for some of us anyway. Can't rule out additional showers but the widespread rains look to be about over with.

I agree Les and sure we can get a isolated shower here or there for the remainder of the day. Last evening between about 930 and 1000 I had some vivid lightning and loud thunder. Wonder if anyone had the same situation. Will be watching the low on the east coast and see if it heads more out to sea or goes north towards Maine. That will no doubt have an affect on the weekend weather.

[tron777]

Glad to see folks like Bgoney cashing in who truly needed the rain more then most of our posters. Looks like the backedge of the wrap around precip is about over for some of us anyway. Can't rule out additional showers but the widespread rains look to be about over with.

I agree Les and sure we can get a isolated shower here or there for the remainder of the day. Last evening between about 930 and 1000 I had some vivid lightning and loud thunder. Wonder if anyone had the same situation. Will be watching the low on the east coast and see if it heads more out to sea or goes north towards Maine. That will no doubt have an affect on the weekend weather.

I heard some thunder also.

[tron777]

12Z GFS keeps us mild and dry until late next week. We get a front to move in but it dies out and weakens as it runs up into the ridge so rainfall amounts are light. A stronger front brings us a nice rainfall sometime late Sun into Mon the 30th. The core of the cold air doesn't really move into our hoods until early November. This makes sense to me due to the NAO being neutral and the ridging being slower to break. We will see a brief -PNA next week before going back to a +PNA in early November. That is my current thinking anyway.

A very very early look at Halloween looks to be dry but chilly. Highs may only be in the 40s if the latest GFS is right. If that is overdone then the 50s would be the high temp.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS keeps us mild and dry until late next week. We get a front to move in but it dies out and weakens as it runs up into the ridge so rainfall amounts are light. A stronger front brings us a nice rainfall sometime late Sun into Mon the 30th. The core of the cold air doesn't really move into our hoods until early November. This makes sense to me due to the NAO being neutral and the ridging being slower to break. We will see a brief -PNA next week before going back to a +PNA in early November. That is my current thinking anyway.

A very very early look at Halloween looks to be dry but chilly. Highs may only be in the 40s if the latest GFS is right. If that is overdone then the 50s would be the high temp.

Yes a neutral NAO can be okay around here especially mid-winter but not so much late October. Heading to Wisconsin and just different in terms of what the nao,ao,etc needed for bigger storms. Last season much of Wisconsin was like us with above normal temps for the winter but they were well above snowfall in many areas.

[Bgoney]

Kind of thought this was interesting. We often see graphs of comparing the models and the 500mb pattern , 3, 5 , 7 , 10 days out . This one shows the Euro keeping track of itself over the years on improving accuracy.

IMG_0707.jpeg

[tron777]

12Z GFS keeps us mild and dry until late next week. We get a front to move in but it dies out and weakens as it runs up into the ridge so rainfall amounts are light. A stronger front brings us a nice rainfall sometime late Sun into Mon the 30th. The core of the cold air doesn't really move into our hoods until early November. This makes sense to me due to the NAO being neutral and the ridging being slower to break. We will see a brief -PNA next week before going back to a +PNA in early November. That is my current thinking anyway.

A very very early look at Halloween looks to be dry but chilly. Highs may only be in the 40s if the latest GFS is right. If that is overdone then the 50s would be the high temp.

Yes a neutral NAO can be okay around here especially mid-winter but not so much late October. Heading to Wisconsin and just different in terms of what the nao,ao,etc needed for bigger storms. Last season much of Wisconsin was like us with above normal temps for the winter but they were well above snowfall in many areas.

12Z Euro seems to be about 24 hours slower then the GFS timing wise for the end of next week / next weekend. This is pretty typical this faar out. GFS is normally too fast, Euro too slow so a solution in the middle is more likely.