Rocktober 2023 Weather Discussion

[MVWxObserver]

Glad its only a 30% to 40% POPs for Sat up this way as the new owners of our old house want us out by Sun 10/22 so we're using a crew out of Dayton for the 3rd and final phase on Sat 10/21 since the guys we've used for the other 2 phases won't be available. We are leery about using strangers as we had a lousy experience twice by some Raleigh, NC crews but prayerfully and hopefully everything will go well Sat.

Currently 54 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 64 and both DAY / CMH 63 today.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a few rounds of rain on the way. Really no changes to the forecast and most folks should get between 0.25-0.50 though if you get under a heavier shower or thundershower later today isolated totals higher. Wanted to add that on Saturday the winds could be cranking and though probably not an advisory you will see tons of leaves rolling down the street.

[tron777]

Good morning! I like amounts around 0.25" unless you get a T-storm this evening then amounts as Tim mentioned will be higher. I also agree with Tim on the wind. Gusts to 30 if not 35 mph are likely on Sat so a lot of leaves will most certainly be coming down. I may as well wait now until next week to mulch leaves at this rate.

[Bgoney]

Little to no changes in drought status regionally. Comparing last year’s fall drought to this year’s for the majority of the region

IMG_0712.png

IMG_0713.png

IMG_0714.png

IMG_0715.png

[tron777]

The drought is definitely more pronounced this year versus last year. The above maps really tell the story. Now the question becomes, do we get a severe cold snap to cause further damage to plants and trees this winter like what happened last winter? Only time will tell but it has no doubt been a struggle for plants and trees the last couple of years.

[tron777]

[MVWxObserver]

Almost here

[tron777]

Seeing a bit of sun here ahead of the weakening first round. The best rains will be with that next piece in ILL later this afternoon and this evening.

[tron777]

12Z NAM total rainfall from now thru Sat:

CVG - 0.43"
DAY - 0.36"
CMH - 0.63"

[Bgoney]

The drought is definitely more pronounced this year versus last year. The above maps really tell the story. Now the question becomes, do we get a severe cold snap to cause further damage to plants and trees this winter like what happened last winter? Only time will tell but it has no doubt been a struggle for plants and trees the last couple of years.

It’s all about limiting the damage from here on into and through the winter, whether from us providing the soaking needed or Mother Nature. The sooner the better either way to provide trees/shrubs with the moisture needed to be able to prepare , which obviously didn’t happen last year. This doesn’t mean if the top few inches are moist or the flower or vegetable soils are moist you’re good to go. Investigate , as Tim did and dig in undisturbed soil under the tree canopy or drip line. You want the soil profile moist down to at least 12” preferable 18+” and again the sooner the better. Drought stress and its effects has varying degrees and most often doesn’t show up until months later. It affects a plant’s natural ability to fight off future disease and insect damage and also weakens branches making them more susceptible to breaking. We were very fortunate we didn’t see much freezing rain last winter. Will we be lucky again? You can’t water everything but if it’s something you can’t replace, it might be worth it

[tron777]

12Z GFS total rainfall from now thru Sat:

CVG - 0.38"
DAY - 0.60"
CMH - 0.58"

Light rain began IMBY about 30 mins ago. So far a trace has been recorded.

[tron777]

The drought is definitely more pronounced this year versus last year. The above maps really tell the story. Now the question becomes, do we get a severe cold snap to cause further damage to plants and trees this winter like what happened last winter? Only time will tell but it has no doubt been a struggle for plants and trees the last couple of years.

It’s all about limiting the damage from here on into and through the winter, whether from us providing the soaking needed or Mother Nature. The sooner the better either way to provide trees/shrubs with the moisture needed to be able to prepare , which obviously didn’t happen last year. This doesn’t mean if the top few inches are moist or the flower or vegetable soils are moist you’re good to go. Investigate , as Tim did and dig in undisturbed soil under the tree canopy or drip line. You want the soil profile moist down to at least 12” preferable 18+” and again the sooner the better. Drought stress and its effects has varying degrees and most often doesn’t show up until months later. It affects a plant’s natural ability to fight off future disease and insect damage and also weakens branches making them more susceptible to breaking. We were very fortunate we didn’t see much freezing rain last winter. Will we be lucky again? You can’t water everything but if it’s something you can’t replace, it might be worth it

I always appreciate your tips and expertise when it comes to caring for plants, trees etc. You are good at what you do, so thank you! Excellent post too by the way. I sure hope we can avoid an ice storm this winter. That chance is always there every winter as you know.

[tpweather]

I agree Les and my knowledge of plants and trees are nearly zero. I do have knowledge of grandchildren though lol. I see some heat advisories on the coast of California which is not unusual for this time of year and really October is probably the warmest time of the year for much of coastal California.

[tron777]

I agree Les and my knowledge of plants and trees are nearly zero. I do have knowledge of grandchildren though lol. I see some heat advisories on the coast of California which is not unusual for this time of year and really October is probably the warmest time of the year for much of coastal California.

And I have knowledge of being an Uncle. Speaking of warm, we could have some pretty warm temps for October standards ahead of the colder temps progged towards months end or early November. Going with the low 70s for about 3 days next week at the moment. Might have to bump up the temps to the mid if not upper 70s depending on how strong the ridge becomes out ahead of the next trough coming in from the West.

[tpweather]

I agree Les and my knowledge of plants and trees are nearly zero. I do have knowledge of grandchildren though lol. I see some heat advisories on the coast of California which is not unusual for this time of year and really October is probably the warmest time of the year for much of coastal California.

And I have knowledge of being an Uncle. Speaking of warm, we could have some pretty warm temps for October standards ahead of the colder temps progged towards months end or early November. Going with the low 70s for about 3 days next week at the moment. Might have to bump up the temps to the mid if not upper 70s depending on how strong the ridge becomes out ahead of the next trough coming in from the West.

I agree Les and I have two days in the low 70's next week. Just not sure how strong that ridge is and if we are too far west to be in the best spot to get warmer. Even low 70's though would be about 6-8 degrees above normal and that may come without rainfall for those two days. We have a tropical system in the Atlantic which will try and build the ridge and also ridging ahead of the trough. Several players and just not sure yet exactly how it plays out but I thought at least a few days in the 70's are possible. So far today a brief pavement wetter and hopefully more to come later today

[tron777]

12Z Euro total rainfall from now thru Sat:

CVG - 0.75"
DAY - 0.53"
CMH - 0.77"

[tron777]

I agree Les and my knowledge of plants and trees are nearly zero. I do have knowledge of grandchildren though lol. I see some heat advisories on the coast of California which is not unusual for this time of year and really October is probably the warmest time of the year for much of coastal California.

And I have knowledge of being an Uncle. Speaking of warm, we could have some pretty warm temps for October standards ahead of the colder temps progged towards months end or early November. Going with the low 70s for about 3 days next week at the moment. Might have to bump up the temps to the mid if not upper 70s depending on how strong the ridge becomes out ahead of the next trough coming in from the West.

I agree Les and I have two days in the low 70's next week. Just not sure how strong that ridge is and if we are too far west to be in the best spot to get warmer. Even low 70's though would be about 6-8 degrees above normal and that may come without rainfall for those two days. We have a tropical system in the Atlantic which will try and build the ridge and also ridging ahead of the trough. Several players and just not sure yet exactly how it plays out but I thought at least a few days in the 70's are possible. So far today a brief pavement wetter and hopefully more to come later today

Right Tim and it is that tropical system that will pump up the ridge... to what extreme remains to be seen. The stronger the ridge is out in front, the stronger the cold air plunge in the trough itself will be. With the NAO not being strongly negative as BG mentioned, the cold air will want to head more east then south or SE. As usual, we shall see.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro total rainfall from now thru Sat:

CVG - 0.75"
DAY - 0.53"
CMH - 0.77"

That is higher than I expected. Would be nice if this happened

[tron777]

I think it is way over done Tim. Sticking with my 0.25" call for most with up to 0.50" possible should you get a t-storm or two. We're on the board with 0.02" around here as of this post. Second round of rain occurring now. It is light in nature.

EDIT: Make that a moderate downpour now. That's a little more like it.

[tpweather]

Les no doubt a little overdone but my guess this is through Saturday and we will see a few more rounds of showers on Friday and Saturday. Sticking with my 0.25-0.50 for the 6 locations and that is the average of all 6. I can see some getting a little less and some a little more so that is why I decided to use all 6 locations. Just a messy setup for a few days and hard to pinpoint exactly where the heaviest rain may fall

[tpweather]

So far I have recorded 0.10 inches of rainfall

[tron777]

Totals as of this post:

CVG - 0.17"
Me - 0.11"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.06"