Rocktober 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

Good morning all! Our pick days of the week here are today and Wed as far as getting things done outside goes. Best chance for showers are still Thurs and Fri. Maybe an early shower Sat but otherwise a dry weekend is on tap. Temps in the U50s today then mainly in the 60s thereafter. Lows are mainly in the 40s to the low 50s.

[tpweather]

Good morning all! Our pick days of the week here are today and Wed as far as getting things done outside goes. Best chance for showers are still Thurs and Fri. Maybe an early shower Sat but otherwise a dry weekend is on tap. Temps in the U50s today then mainly in the 60s thereafter. Lows are mainly in the 40s to the low 50s.

Good Morning Les and we almost agree on everything. I believe these patterns like the one we are in take time to break and I have scattered showers through Sunday. Most of the time it won't rain but sprinkles and even a brief shower looks possible through Sunday.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Our pick days of the week here are today and Wed as far as getting things done outside goes. Best chance for showers are still Thurs and Fri. Maybe an early shower Sat but otherwise a dry weekend is on tap. Temps in the U50s today then mainly in the 60s thereafter. Lows are mainly in the 40s to the low 50s.

Good Morning Les and we almost agree on everything. I believe these patterns like the one we are in take time to break and I have scattered showers through Sunday. Most of the time it won't rain but sprinkles and even a brief shower looks possible through Sunday.

That is possible Tim. The chance is low as the disturbance is weakening as it moves in and will have very little moisture to work with.

[tpweather]

Good morning all! Our pick days of the week here are today and Wed as far as getting things done outside goes. Best chance for showers are still Thurs and Fri. Maybe an early shower Sat but otherwise a dry weekend is on tap. Temps in the U50s today then mainly in the 60s thereafter. Lows are mainly in the 40s to the low 50s.

Good Morning Les and we almost agree on everything. I believe these patterns like the one we are in take time to break and I have scattered showers through Sunday. Most of the time it won't rain but sprinkles and even a brief shower looks possible through Sunday.

That is possible Tim. The chance is low as the disturbance is weakening as it moves in and will have very little moisture to work with.

Les the moisture is usually like we see in the winter and these little disturbances will pick up some moisture from the lakes and head south. Not going to be much rain but I need to keep it in the forecast as models during the fall and winter tend to push this pattern out a little quicker than what ends up happening.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Our pick days of the week here are today and Wed as far as getting things done outside goes. Best chance for showers are still Thurs and Fri. Maybe an early shower Sat but otherwise a dry weekend is on tap. Temps in the U50s today then mainly in the 60s thereafter. Lows are mainly in the 40s to the low 50s.

Good Morning Les and we almost agree on everything. I believe these patterns like the one we are in take time to break and I have scattered showers through Sunday. Most of the time it won't rain but sprinkles and even a brief shower looks possible through Sunday.

That is possible Tim. The chance is low as the disturbance is weakening as it moves in and will have very little moisture to work with.

Les the moisture is usually like we see in the winter and these little disturbances will pick up some moisture from the lakes and head south. Not going to be much rain but I need to keep it in the forecast as models during the fall and winter tend to push this pattern out a little quicker than what ends up happening.

That's a fair point Tim. If I were to insert POPS it would be for late Sat night / Sun morning time frame as that disturbance moves in via NW Flow. It will certainly bring in more clouds to keep temps down if nothing else. The strength of this system is in question this far away.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Good morning all! Our pick days of the week here are today and Wed as far as getting things done outside goes. Best chance for showers are still Thurs and Fri. Maybe an early shower Sat but otherwise a dry weekend is on tap. Temps in the U50s today then mainly in the 60s thereafter. Lows are mainly in the 40s to the low 50s.

Good Morning Les and we almost agree on everything. I believe these patterns like the one we are in take time to break and I have scattered showers through Sunday. Most of the time it won't rain but sprinkles and even a brief shower looks possible through Sunday.

That is possible Tim. The chance is low as the disturbance is weakening as it moves in and will have very little moisture to work with.

Les the moisture is usually like we see in the winter and these little disturbances will pick up some moisture from the lakes and head south. Not going to be much rain but I need to keep it in the forecast as models during the fall and winter tend to push this pattern out a little quicker than what ends up happening.

That's a fair point Tim. If I were to insert POPS it would be for late Sat night / Sun morning time frame as that disturbance moves in via NW Flow. It will certainly bring in more clouds to keep temps down if nothing else. The strength of this system is in question this far away.

Les if you go to say Louisville and points south and west then very unlikely to get any sprinkles or showers. We will be on the western and southern edge and that is why I had to add the chances. Again no doubt clouds around.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and we almost agree on everything. I believe these patterns like the one we are in take time to break and I have scattered showers through Sunday. Most of the time it won't rain but sprinkles and even a brief shower looks possible through Sunday.

That is possible Tim. The chance is low as the disturbance is weakening as it moves in and will have very little moisture to work with.

Les the moisture is usually like we see in the winter and these little disturbances will pick up some moisture from the lakes and head south. Not going to be much rain but I need to keep it in the forecast as models during the fall and winter tend to push this pattern out a little quicker than what ends up happening.

That's a fair point Tim. If I were to insert POPS it would be for late Sat night / Sun morning time frame as that disturbance moves in via NW Flow. It will certainly bring in more clouds to keep temps down if nothing else. The strength of this system is in question this far away.

Les if you go to say Louisville and points south and west then very unlikely to get any sprinkles or showers. We will be on the western and southern edge and that is why I had to add the chances. Again no doubt clouds around.

Models don't yet agree on the track either. Does it track south of us so we can get a few hundredths of light rain or to the north where we get zilch? Also too early to know for sure.

[tron777]

I have a forecast update for you all now. Still looking to see some showers Thurs into Fri. Amounts still look to be light. 0.25" or less in my opinion for most folks. Then, that little clipper disturbance on the 12Z GFS zips in here Sat evening into the overnight. It's a bit faster and further north as well on this run which is a step towards the last Euro run. So that would mean a chance of showers Sat into Sat night then dry on Sunday if this is correct. The 12Z CMC is faster still bringing it thru Sat morning then we are dry. So I like the trends here of speeding up the clipper. Therefore, I have a chance of showers in the forecast Thurs - Sat then I am going dry on Sunday.

[Bgoney]

Pretty good agreement from ensembles through the next ten days for continued deficits in the qpf department . The plains get some help from the tropical system cutting across Mehico but atm that moisture looks to stay west of the OV during this time period

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[tron777]

12Z Euro is much weaker with the clipper but even so it will be a quicker affair with the rain chance on Sat versus Sun. With regards to those above maps, they do look good for the Plains. Rain for them next week and a snow storm for the Rockies. For us.... mild and quiet weather until around Thurs or so when that front weakens as it moves into the OV. A shocker I know.

[tron777]

54 was all we could manage here and at CVG for the high today.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 54 and both DAY / CMH 56 today.

[tron777]

18Z GFS is way north now with the clipper. Most of AV Land is dry due to it being so far north. The point still stands though in regards to the faster solution being correct.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and just looked at the latest gfs and big snowstorm for Wisconsin the day I am heading up there on the 26th. The other two models show a big storm but all rain. So either way it looks messy and still believe I may see some snow before I leave on Nov 2nd.

Les concerning the weekend and I watched Brian's video and he explained which I agree with is concerning the low pressure over the northeast later this week. If that moves out to sea then Sunday should be dry but if it heads inland over Maine then we are on the western and southern edge of some sprinkles or a shower on Sunday. Way too early to throw either solution out and again last week at this time models did a poor job on this past weekend. They finally figured it out but it was within 24 hours of an event. At the moment I will stick with the pattern over the models until I see something that goes one way or the other.

[tron777]

Good Evening and just looked at the latest gfs and big snowstorm for Wisconsin the day I am heading up there on the 26th. The other two models show a big storm but all rain. So either way it looks messy and still believe I may see some snow before I leave on Nov 2nd.

Les concerning the weekend and I watched Brian's video and he explained which I agree with is concerning the low pressure over the northeast later this week. If that moves out to sea then Sunday should be dry but if it heads inland over Maine then we are on the western and southern edge of some sprinkles or a shower on Sunday. Way too early to throw either solution out and again last week at this time models did a poor job on this past weekend. They finally figured it out but it was within 24 hours of an event. At the moment I will stick with the pattern over the models until I see something that goes one way or the other.

Good evening Tim! I don't blame you on waiting to make your final call. I honestly hope that I didn't make mine too early but the earlier arrival of the clipper makes sense to me. Usually models are too slow with those types of systems anyway, They typically move faster and have less moisture to go along with them. Thus... this is why I am going dry on Sunday and going with our rain chances Thurs - Sat.

With regards to your Wisc trip.... I hope that the system is rain on the 26th. Then let it snow like hell after you are there so you don't miss anything. Tons of time to keep our eyes on that one and I don't have a call yet with that particular system.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Finally some clear skies this morning so temps have been allowed to drop into the 30s and low 40s. 39 currently IMBY. A nice day with sunshine and highs in the mid to upper 60s before rain showers return tomorrow morning. Shower chances continue into Fri and Sat with that clipper then we are dry for a bit. I expect rainfall amounts to still be 0.25" or less for the entire event. Temps look to moderate also next week with the 70s likely returning for a couple of days.

[tpweather]

Good Morning. Looks like the bright star in the sky will come out today. Mid-60's look good and time to mow the yard. The Thursday-Sunday period is still the same and Sunday can still go either way. If the faster solution plays out and more sun on Sunday then some frost may form Monday morning as temps can get into the mid-upper 30's. Next week looks very mild and some 70's back in the forecast. This is due to a pattern change that hopefully by the end of the week brings some decent rains. This pattern change looks to be short-lived though and heading towards the end of the month another shot of colder weather which most likely will bring our first freeze.

[tron777]

Good Morning. Looks like the bright star in the sky will come out today. Mid-60's look good and time to mow the yard. The Thursday-Sunday period is still the same and Sunday can still go either way. If the faster solution plays out and more sun on Sunday then some frost may form Monday morning as temps can get into the mid-upper 30's. Next week looks very mild and some 70's back in the forecast. This is due to a pattern change that hopefully by the end of the week brings some decent rains. This pattern change looks to be short-lived though and heading towards the end of the month another shot of colder weather which most likely will bring our first freeze.

Agreed Tim! We should all get our first frost of the season soon and maybe some decent rains also if we can get a big enough storm system to form with some phasing. We haven't seen that yet so our amounts have been light. As we approach the end of the month, let's watch the guidance to see if that comes to fruition.

[tpweather]

Good news is northern Canada which got off to a slow start to winter this year is heading in the right direction. Some temps in the -20 - -30 range finally. With a bigger system next week in the plains this storm may be able to grab some of that colder air and gives us a better shot of a freeze by months end. Still believe we get another milder spell say between the 7-15th or so of November before more cold may invade. To early to know for sure but signs are showing up.

[tron777]

Good news is northern Canada which got off to a slow start to winter this year is heading in the right direction. Some temps in the -20 - -30 range finally. With a bigger system next week in the plains this storm may be able to grab some of that colder air and gives us a better shot of a freeze by months end. Still believe we get another milder spell say between the 7-15th or so of November before more cold may invade. To early to know for sure but signs are showing up.

Snow cover over North America has also been off to a very slow start. However, even that is beginning to finally change in a more positive direction especially over Siberia. Overall, we will see a milder spell every now and again but the same pattern we have been in since Spring as a whole (+PNA and a -EPO) should continue by and large. I am not seeing anything as of yet that shows we will see a prolonged -PNA. We get bouts of it sure, but as long as it doesn't last for more then a week we are in fine shape there. November could turn out to be an interesting month. Maybe a recurving typhoon can bring in a blast of cold air for some snow like what we saw back in Nov of either 2014 or 2015, can't remember which). We need to keep talking about this stuff so we can get our snow fall contest entries posted here soon.

[winterstormjoe]

Good news is northern Canada which got off to a slow start to winter this year is heading in the right direction. Some temps in the -20 - -30 range finally. With a bigger system next week in the plains this storm may be able to grab some of that colder air and gives us a better shot of a freeze by months end. Still believe we get another milder spell say between the 7-15th or so of November before more cold may invade. To early to know for sure but signs are showing up.

Snow cover over North America has also been off to a very slow start. However, even that is beginning to finally change in a more positive direction especially over Siberia. Overall, we will see a milder spell every now and again but the same pattern we have been in since Spring as a whole (+PNA and a -EPO) should continue by and large. I am not seeing anything as of yet that shows we will see a prolonged -PNA. We get bouts of it sure, but as long as it doesn't last for more then a week we are in fine shape there. November could turn out to be an interesting month. Maybe a recurving typhoon can bring in a blast of cold air for some snow like what we saw back in Nov of either 2014 or 2015, can't remember which). We need to keep talking about this stuff so we can get our snow fall contest entries posted here soon.

Les, it was around the 10-12th of November 2014 where we had a few inches of snow and temps went down to 5-10 above with the snow cover for a couple of mornings, that was wild! Then that was it till we got into late January and February of 2015.

[tron777]

Good news is northern Canada which got off to a slow start to winter this year is heading in the right direction. Some temps in the -20 - -30 range finally. With a bigger system next week in the plains this storm may be able to grab some of that colder air and gives us a better shot of a freeze by months end. Still believe we get another milder spell say between the 7-15th or so of November before more cold may invade. To early to know for sure but signs are showing up.

Snow cover over North America has also been off to a very slow start. However, even that is beginning to finally change in a more positive direction especially over Siberia. Overall, we will see a milder spell every now and again but the same pattern we have been in since Spring as a whole (+PNA and a -EPO) should continue by and large. I am not seeing anything as of yet that shows we will see a prolonged -PNA. We get bouts of it sure, but as long as it doesn't last for more then a week we are in fine shape there. November could turn out to be an interesting month. Maybe a recurving typhoon can bring in a blast of cold air for some snow like what we saw back in Nov of either 2014 or 2015, can't remember which). We need to keep talking about this stuff so we can get our snow fall contest entries posted here soon.

Les, it was around the 10-12th of November 2014 where we had a few inches of snow and temps went down to 5-10 above with the snow cover for a couple of mornings, that was wild! Then that was it till we got into late January and February of 2015.

Thanks Joe! I couldn't remember what year it was. I remember typhoon Nuri was the recurving typhoon that gave us a brief but wintry pattern for that storm system that brought us the snow. CVG picked up 4.9" of snow on 11/17/14 for a daily snowfall record.

[MVWxObserver]

Our 3rd and final moving phase has changed as we'll be doing it now on Tues 10/24 which currently looks great wx-wise!

We still have a bed and frame e.g. in the master bedroom that we've been concerned about as we're going to bring that over to the new house and an 80% chance of rain tomorrow (Thurs) isn't very conducive when transferring something like that via our movers.

Originally per our contract with the realtor and new owners, embarrassingly we're going to have renege because we still have a lot of stuff in the old house. Its bloomin' amazing how one can amass over the decades!

We've been in contact with our realtor but haven't heard a peep from the new owners. They've been very understanding so far ...

Yesterday we sold a round table and some chairs along with 2 beds / frames to a friend of ours from church who owns some properties.

We still have an oak dresser and oak bookcase though at the old house that we'll be putting online to advertise.

Currently 48 here in G'ville and looking to top out at around 64.

[tron777]

CVG got down to 41 this morning. We may see a couple of nights in the 30s esp Mon and Tues mornings of next week. We could see a frost during that time period with a killing freeze gaining some steam the weekend right before Halloween as Tim mentioned earlier this morning.