September 2023 Weather Discussion

[Bgoney]

Yep, no change in the Borecast.


Went to Spring Grove cemetery yesterday and what a tinder-box that is , just terrible

[tron777]

Yep, no change in the Borecast.


Went to Spring Grove cemetery yesterday and what a tinder-box that is , just terrible

Borecast - Good one!

[tpweather]

Good Morning and another nice day in store. No doubt it has been dry the past 6 weeks for many folks. Hopefully next week that changes and again models doing the old one run rainfall looks likely and the next we are dry. Again the system in the southeast will mess with the models just like Lee did recently. Starting out milder this morning as some clouds are around. I hit 82 on Wednesday but I see the airport got to 83. Probably similar today though the dew points are rising though still very nice. The rise in temps will be slower and once again by 1pm we are probably flirting with 80 if the clouds thin. Then between 1-4 pm how much more heating will occur. Getting to the point as we near fall that temps very seldom rise much after 4pm which is different than mid-summer.

[Bgoney]

As expected, Drought This time compared to last year is already much worse regionally and we know the damaging effects on trees and shrubs last fall’s drought had and still having .

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[tron777]

The above drought update isn't a shock at all. About what we all expected to see unfortunately. Hopefully Rocktober will be rocking in terms of some rainfall. Sure the growing season is on its last leg, but it is more for next year's growing season then anything else.

[Mjr]

Sometimes I wonder if the Redlegs are still serious about a Wild Card chase. Stupid relief!

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

Pitching is the problem and will continue to be a problem. A hitters ballpark will no doubt keep the best pitchers from signing with the Reds. I understand that because the difference between an ERA of say 3.05 compared to 4.05 is worth millions of dollars

That's why I miss Riverfront Stadium and owners like Marge Schott e.g., granted she had her eccentricities, but she was like a Steinbrenner in that she truly had the drive to get the team into a World Series and along with GM Lou Piniella took them to it in 1990, their first since the years of 1975-1976 with owner Louis Nippert and GM Sparky Anderson.

My folks bought their first Buick car from the Schott dealership in the late 1960s or early '70s.

Still currently 79 here in G'ville.

Loved Sparky when he managed My Tigers and took them to the WS in 1984 which they won!

Loved those Tiger teams, we used to pretend to be those Tigers teams when we played our whiffle ball games. And I’m not going to mention how old we were.

And she brought back “Pete…. Pete… Pete..”. I can also remember the lines of people waiting to get an autograph form her during home games.

[tpweather]

Slow rise as we have plenty of clouds. Yesterday plenty of sun and made got into the low 80's. Today if the clouds don't break soon we will stay under 80.

[tron777]

Clouds will probably screw up my mid 80s call for today. Low 80s still reachable at this time. Mid 80s def. tomorrow since we'll have full on sunshine.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

Clouds will probably screw up my mid 80s call for today. Low 80s still reachable at this time. Mid 80s def. tomorrow since we'll have full on sunshine.

Les that hurt me yesterday as the sun was out all day. I went 80-82 everyday and I thought it was a safe call but if the clouds are around long enough never make it to 80 and if you get a day like yesterday with the sun out all day and dewpoints still low then getting above 82 has a decent chance. Again these are just a few things forecasters and mets deal with and this time of year the outcome really is low in terms of sensible weather.

[tron777]

79 as of 1pm at CVG... maybe the mid 80s aren't out of reach after all?!?

Man oh man... if the 12Z GFS is right, no rain for us until October. It completely splits the energy for next weeks rain into two pieces. One goes north, the other south and we are left high and dry. Terrible, terrible news should this solution pan out.

[tpweather]

Another great video by Brian and really mentioned how models are having a tougher time than normal. I do agree with him about the southeast system heading north over the weekend. This brings more dry air into the atmosphere and we will once again see big temp changes during the day. Not surprised to see 78 for a high on Saturday and lows in the upper 40's. Not good we are in a dry period but at least the temp is very pleasant and the A/C will remain off. Still many folks mowing in the neighborhood as the lawns for many folks are lush. Took a walk this morning and again you see some brown spots in lawns that are not kept very well but others have a nice lush lawn. Very lucky here this season compared to last where we missed every rainfall in August and started the drought for us last year.

[young pup]

Getting crispy here. Unless of course you are watering. I'm watering flowers, shrubs, and sod I put down this spring. Still not enough to keep from seeing brown in the sod.

[tpweather]

Getting crispy here. Unless of course you are watering. I'm watering flowers, shrubs, and sod I put down this spring. Still not enough to keep from seeing brown in the sod.

Hey JP. I have drove around other areas locally and you can see a big difference. I still have mud on the top layer of ground that gets very little sun during the day so hopefully next week everyone sees 1/2 of rain or so. Will not be a drought buster but the 1/3 of an inch this past weekend and the cool and dry air to follow did wonders on the lawns. I understand trees and shrubs are a different animal and sometimes you don't see the problem right away and I also tell folks water the foundation of the house if no rain in 2-3 weeks because that will cost you a lot more if the foundation pulls away.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is doing the same thing for next week... Wow...

Also, the clouds have returned so CVG actually dropped to 78 as of 2pm. Max high so far is 80 so my mid 80s call is definitely not going to work out for today.

[tron777]

Lawns IMBY are what you'd expect in a drought. If you mow less frequently and mow at a higher blade height like I do, then you just have brown areas where the sun bakes it. Shaded areas are nice and green. For the folks who scalp their lawns and mow weekly, it's getting crispy! I probably won't water the lawn anymore like I was. Water is just getting too expensive like everything else. I'm just watering my garden and plants to keep them going before the cold weather comes.

[tpweather]

12Z Euro is doing the same thing for next week... Wow...

Also, the clouds have returned so CVG actually dropped to 78 as of 2pm. Max high so far is 80 so my mid 80s call is definitely not going to work out for today.

Good thing is the CMC does bring in some rains later next week and really the best model for several months. Still I believe models are having problems with the southeast system and my guess more swings in the models over the next several days. These are short term droughts and yes they become a pain and especially folks that deal with plants,shrubs and trees but overall the past decade or so we have been above normal in rainfall about every year. I saw the dew point hit 57 today which again in not a recipe for rainfall. My guess dew points this weekend may fall back in the low-mid 40's.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is doing the same thing for next week... Wow...

Also, the clouds have returned so CVG actually dropped to 78 as of 2pm. Max high so far is 80 so my mid 80s call is definitely not going to work out for today.

Good thing is the CMC does bring in some rains later next week and really the best model for several months. Still I believe models are having problems with the southeast system and my guess more swings in the models over the next several days. These are short term droughts and yes they become a pain and especially folks that deal with plants,shrubs and trees but overall the past decade or so we have been above normal in rainfall about every year. I saw the dew point hit 57 today which again in not a recipe for rainfall. My guess dew points this weekend may fall back in the low-mid 40's.

My concern is that the tropical system is going to get a little stronger then models originally expected. That means sinking air and a dry airmass for us on the backside of it. Then you compound the problem with the drought and the already dry ground that we have in place across the region and it's a recipe for more dryness. You've heard the expression "drought begets drought" and that is partially what is going on here in my mind. Until we see a wholescale pattern change, we're stuck in no man's land with regards to storm systems. The trough coming in over the Pacific NW isn't going to help us either. Cause and effect. A trough there means ridging here or close by anyway. All I am seeing on guidance for next week is a high anchored over S Canada just North of the Lakes. It doesn't move very much and we are under its influence. That gives us nice weather but it's a pattern that will not promote rainfall. We either need a tropical system in the Gulf to move northbound to deliver rains or a recurving typhoon to change up the Pacific. Right now, I see fantasy signals for that kind of stuff on guidance but it is truly fantasy at this point.

[tpweather]

Les the only positive I see is the systems that are coming out of the pacific are robust. Nearly and inch in east central Illinois with the current system. Of course you must be in the correct place but they really are not raining themselves out because the core of the lows are rather strong. During El Nino's there is usually a place that is really wet like we are seeing on the east coast the past 3 months or so and then folks just to the west of that become rather dry. You see this often in the winter and if you are in the wrong area you become cold but dry. Hopefully that is not the case this winter and I really don't believe that will be the main pattern though a few periods of that is possible.

I would love to see the rain for the allergies alone.

[Bgoney]

Driving around the neighborhoods today and the drought stress has really picked up and noticeable. Plants are in survival mode now and shutting down way early

[tron777]

Les the only positive I see is the systems that are coming out of the pacific are robust. Nearly and inch in east central Illinois with the current system. Of course you must be in the correct place but they really are not raining themselves out because the core of the lows are rather strong. During El Nino's there is usually a place that is really wet like we are seeing on the east coast the past 3 months or so and then folks just to the west of that become rather dry. You see this often in the winter and if you are in the wrong area you become cold but dry. Hopefully that is not the case this winter and I really don't believe that will be the main pattern though a few periods of that is possible.

I would love to see the rain for the allergies alone.

Yeah... I'm not concerned about winter time precip at all. The rains will come back. They always do in our area as you well know. The question at this time is when? I'm not going to pull POPS from my forecast next week yet, but if the trends continue, I'll have no choice but to do so in a couple more days. For today, look at a dewpoint map. Dews in the 60s in ILL where the rains have fallen as you mentioned, but look at us. Dews in the 50s so any precip that tries to head our way will evaporate before hitting the ground. That is why we are only seeing the clouds today. With the dews dropping into the 40s this weekend, that will make it feel nice to us, but the ground will continue to dry out more and more. This is not a good situation IMO and with that tropical system to our east holding up any rains at bay to our west, it just is not looking good for rainfall in our area for next week. Not good at all.

[Bgoney]

12Z Euro is doing the same thing for next week... Wow...

Also, the clouds have returned so CVG actually dropped to 78 as of 2pm. Max high so far is 80 so my mid 80s call is definitely not going to work out for today.

Good thing is the CMC does bring in some rains later next week and really the best model for several months. Still I believe models are having problems with the southeast system and my guess more swings in the models over the next several days. These are short term droughts and yes they become a pain and especially folks that deal with plants,shrubs and trees but overall the past decade or so we have been above normal in rainfall about every year. I saw the dew point hit 57 today which again in not a recipe for rainfall. My guess dew points this weekend may fall back in the low-mid 40's.

Tim , if we have an overall normal year of qpf and a 3,4, or 5 month dry spell that normal qpf means little . It’s no different in say winter time when we have what turns out to be a normal temp month but a bitterly cold week sandwiched in somewhere, it doesn’t tell the whole story

[tpweather]

Driving around the neighborhoods today and the drought stress has really picked up and noticeable. Plants are in survival mode now and shutting down way early

No doubt and that happen here last year as I was still going back and forth to SC and one time I was gone about 10 days or so and everything was just brown and cracks in the lawn plus trees and shrubs just looked thirsty. Of course the short term drought last year started in early August and by the time mid-September came around it was not good plus I had planted grass seed which really was doing good all year until August and of course that went by the wayside as it needed another year or so of really being rooted and less problems.

The good thing is we are in a spot of the world that very seldom sees long term droughts and sure from time to time we get these and sometimes we get these with tons of heat. So at the end of the day concern on my part is low and I know folks that work in the business are more concerned because guess what that is their business and I understand completely. Mother Nature will once again do her balancing act and for us in this part of the world that means rains will return and by next year who knows we may have too much rainfall.

Hey Bgoney and I saw your post and sure normal rainfall can mean different things and sure if you get it all at one time that is not normal. I am always more concerned about rainfall in the spring and early summer as we need the crops that feed us to be healthy. I know your house has been missed quite often this year which is sort of what I had last year.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is doing the same thing for next week... Wow...

Also, the clouds have returned so CVG actually dropped to 78 as of 2pm. Max high so far is 80 so my mid 80s call is definitely not going to work out for today.

Good thing is the CMC does bring in some rains later next week and really the best model for several months. Still I believe models are having problems with the southeast system and my guess more swings in the models over the next several days. These are short term droughts and yes they become a pain and especially folks that deal with plants,shrubs and trees but overall the past decade or so we have been above normal in rainfall about every year. I saw the dew point hit 57 today which again in not a recipe for rainfall. My guess dew points this weekend may fall back in the low-mid 40's.

Tim , if we have an overall normal year of qpf and a 3,4, or 5 month dry spell that normal qpf means little . It’s no different in say winter time when we have what turns out to be a normal temp month but a bitterly cold week sandwiched in somewhere, it doesn’t tell the whole story

Great post Bgoney! That is exactly right. Numbers and data can be misleading for sure. Look at last winter when it was an overall mild winter but that severe cold we had around Christmas sure damaged a lot of plants for this year's growing season as you have talked about in previous posts. Now we have another drought causing even more issues for our lawns, plants, trees, etc.

[Bgoney]

Lol Tim , we’re not going to agree on this. Of course compared to western droughts ours are short term , but I think it’s wrong to compare the two . Our 3,4 or 5 month droughts can and do have many effects and unfortunately becoming more pronounced and occurring more frequently