September 2023 Weather Discussion

[tpweather]

Good news bad news for next week. Good news the center of the country starts to see appreciable moisture return(1.00”+), bad news I don’t see that making it into our region (below .50”) . A cutoff low taking it’s sweet time while weakening as it tries to enter the OV , all the while the STJ also looks to weaken , and we have influence from the NE high pressure squeezing in between the low moving off the coast. It just doesn’t equate to much QPF for cvgland

Agreed. I still don't see any widespread rainfall for our area for the rest of Sept. at least. October may also begin with a similar pattern. Hopefully in the next 2-3 weeks things will change but like you, I don't see that happening as of yet. Total rainfall for the next 2 weeks looks to stay at or under that half inch mark for our area as a whole. The yellow D0 drought category will be expanding in coverage for sure once the new map comes out tomorrow.

As hard as it is to believe, we’re actually in a worse spot than what ended up as a moderate to severe fall drought than last year. We had decent rains regionally in August and beginning of September last year, it’s been much different regionally this year. Last fall’s drought was devastating to many evergreens in combination with lack of root zone moisture and the severe temperature drop in December, nearly wiped out or severely damaged many. Cherry laurel were goners, American boxwood species severely damaged or goners. Norway spruce suffered severe needle drop and will take years to recover if they do. I harped on this last year, so you no I wasn’t kidding , please start watering any valued evergreens so they have deep moisture going into winter

Great Post except last year I got missed with every rain event from mid-August on while the region had some decent rains my house got missed. I agree about the evergreens but the ones in my neighborhood are looking wonderful. This August and September I have done better with the rains so we know rainfall can be regional but also localized. One thing I have notice is the boxwood species have really had problems this year and that started in the spring. We have 2 that are completely gone to brown and this is very common in the neighborhood. My soil moisture is still in really good shape but getting some rain and then have low humidity and nice temps makes a big difference.

If you have moisture at depth , you’re one of the few lucky ones. Most evergreens looked “ good” at this time last year also, unfortunately most drought effects don’t show up until much later , after the damage has been done. . Moisture in the root zone ,down to 18” is crucial going into winter

No doubt I have been very lucky this year and about a 180 from last year. I also always water the foundation if no rain within a 2-3 week period during the summer and also early all. So far this season I have not watered the foundation once. No cracks in the lawn either which is always a bad sign that the water depth is not good. I have had quite of few dead leaves but again I have about 6 trees about ten feet away from the back patio and hopefully next year I can have a few removed which in turn will help the others. I would have never planted trees that close to the patio or house but they did when it was built in 1992 and I ended up buying it 2001. I also get the neighbors trees leaves as well so that adds to the leaf collection.

[tron777]

I do too Tim! I have my own leaves to deal with every Fall and I get the neighbors oak leaves whenever we get those strong SW winds.

[tron777]

[tpweather]

A very nice video once again by Brian. One thing he is teasing about is the upcoming winter. He is not one to get out hand about and upcoming winter and if he is already talking about a stormy winter then it peaks my interest. If the El Nino remains on the lower end intensity and the warmer waters move west then that could lead to a very busy winter for us. If the El Nino would strengthen more and the warmer waters remain near South America that would also lead to a busy winter but probably more warmth involved. No doubt many of the longer term models are showing blocking to the north and northeast which no doubt helps. Some are even showing a major blocking up the west coast into western Canada. That can really lead to a stormy pattern though sometimes the troughs are too far east. We still have a good 45 days at least before things really are getting set for the winter but again looks nothing like last year which was sort of an outlier imo.

[MVWxObserver]

I'm probably one of the very few here who, although we need rain, am glad that the current pattern is dry because of fiber optic line crews have been installing around my north Greenville 'hood including now today have begun digging near my folks and my property. Also our moving in of furniture at a catalpa will be this Friday. And also a crew is replacing guttering in our new 'hood in south G'ville. They've been re-guttering our catalpa and will next, our attached neighbors' catalpa, a sweet couple named Dean and Beulah and Beulah's dog Missy. Then later a crew will be installing new siding on abodes at some point.

I had a walk-through yesterday with my folks of our new place and all the rooms like very nice.

We'll have a standard "grace period" of 30 days up until around Oct 20th to be fully out of our current house and plan to have a fall garage sale at some point. We close this afternoon at 4 o'clock with a couple who are also from G'ville.

Currently 72 and looking to top out at around 80 later.

[tpweather]

77 at noon though I am only sitting at 74. Will watch some of the clouds this afternoon and they scattered then we can see 83 or so but if we get more of the higher clouds and can keep us a degree or two lower. Dewpoint sitting at 51 at my house while CVG at 54.

[tron777]

79 now at CVG as of 12:20pm. Low 80s look like a lock to me today.

[tpweather]

79 now at CVG as of 12:20pm. Low 80s look like a lock to me today.

No doubt Les and I am up to 77 with a dew of 51.

[tpweather]

Up to 79 at CVG for the 1pm reading. 5 degrees higher than yesterday and if that holds we will hit 82 today.

[tron777]

12Z GFS has the slower timing of our next rain chance. I am in agreement and will go dry thru Monday and bring in 30% POPS by Tues and Wed of next week.

[tron777]

At CVG, Sept total rainfall sits at a very measly 0.35" This puts us at #4 on the list of Top Ten driest Septembers on record currently.
At DAY, Sept total rainfall is 0.27" This ties for #3 with 1963 also at 0.27" attm.
At CMH, Sept total rainfall is also 0.27" This ranks at the driest Sept ever so far. #1 currently is 0.42" from back in 1908.

[tron777]

12Z Euro is in decent agreement with the GFS for next week. We are dry until Tues with isolated chances becoming a little better 50 / 50 by Wed of next week.

[MVWxObserver]

Sometimes I wonder if the Redlegs are still serious about a Wild Card chase. Stupid relief!

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

[tpweather]

Sometimes I wonder if the Redlegs are still serious about a Wild Card chase. Stupid relief!

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

Pitching is the problem and will continue to be a problem. A hitters ballpark will no doubt keep the best pitchers from signing with the Reds. I understand that because the difference between an ERA of say 3.05 compared to 4.05 is worth millions of dollars

[tpweather]

CVG made it to 82 so far and same temp here with dew point of 49. First time in awhile that is felt a little toasty in the house but once the sun sets it will feel wonderful again. No doubt a slow moving pattern and as we have seen in the past few years these patterns tend to last longer and longer. Hopefully next week is the start of a pattern change or at least bring in some rainfall. Then it looks like the second week or so of Oct could bring the first true cold snap to the mainland USA. Still have time to watch that unfold and this far out things can change. Love it when I start to see the 40's for highs and 20's for lows in the northern plains because this means we are getting closer to winter.

[tron777]

CVG made it to 82 so far and same temp here with dew point of 49. First time in awhile that is felt a little toasty in the house but once the sun sets it will feel wonderful again. No doubt a slow moving pattern and as we have seen in the past few years these patterns tend to last longer and longer. Hopefully next week is the start of a pattern change or at least bring in some rainfall. Then it looks like the second week or so of Oct could bring the first true cold snap to the mainland USA. Still have time to watch that unfold and this far out things can change. Love it when I start to see the 40's for highs and 20's for lows in the northern plains because this means we are getting closer to winter.

The key to that cold blast we are seeing from time to time is if we get a recurving typhoon in the West Pac. I will be watching it of course and will be posting in our West Pac tropical thread as conditions warrant. Currently Wave 96W has a medium chance to develop so that is probably the tropical wave that models are showing turning into a typhoon down the road then doing that classic recurve East of Japan as the leftovers head for Alaska to pump up the warm air and ridging so we get the downstream trough 7-10 days later. Timing wise, that would put it in the 10-7 thru 10-10 range.

[tpweather]

CVG made it to 82 so far and same temp here with dew point of 49. First time in awhile that is felt a little toasty in the house but once the sun sets it will feel wonderful again. No doubt a slow moving pattern and as we have seen in the past few years these patterns tend to last longer and longer. Hopefully next week is the start of a pattern change or at least bring in some rainfall. Then it looks like the second week or so of Oct could bring the first true cold snap to the mainland USA. Still have time to watch that unfold and this far out things can change. Love it when I start to see the 40's for highs and 20's for lows in the northern plains because this means we are getting closer to winter.

The key to that cold blast we are seeing from time to time is if we get a recurving typhoon in the West Pac. I will be watching it of course and will be posting in our West Pac tropical thread as conditions warrant. Currently Wave 96W has a medium chance to develop so that is probably the tropical wave that models are showing turning into a typhoon down the road then doing that classic recurve East of Japan as the leftovers head for Alaska to pump up the warm air and ridging so we get the downstream trough 7-10 days later. Timing wise, that would put it in the 10-7 thru 10-10 range.

I agree Les and even without the recurving typhoon I expect some cooler air to invade about the second week of Oct which is very common. We have seen these typhoons bring down some decent cold air but of course in early Oct the real cold air has not quite developed in the northern regions so only so much cold can make it here but you can end up with an early frost if things pan out correctly

[tron777]

CVG made it to 82 so far and same temp here with dew point of 49. First time in awhile that is felt a little toasty in the house but once the sun sets it will feel wonderful again. No doubt a slow moving pattern and as we have seen in the past few years these patterns tend to last longer and longer. Hopefully next week is the start of a pattern change or at least bring in some rainfall. Then it looks like the second week or so of Oct could bring the first true cold snap to the mainland USA. Still have time to watch that unfold and this far out things can change. Love it when I start to see the 40's for highs and 20's for lows in the northern plains because this means we are getting closer to winter.

The key to that cold blast we are seeing from time to time is if we get a recurving typhoon in the West Pac. I will be watching it of course and will be posting in our West Pac tropical thread as conditions warrant. Currently Wave 96W has a medium chance to develop so that is probably the tropical wave that models are showing turning into a typhoon down the road then doing that classic recurve East of Japan as the leftovers head for Alaska to pump up the warm air and ridging so we get the downstream trough 7-10 days later. Timing wise, that would put it in the 10-7 thru 10-10 range.

I agree Les and even without the recurving typhoon I expect some cooler air to invade about the second week of Oct which is very common. We have seen these typhoons bring down some decent cold air but of course in early Oct the real cold air has not quite developed in the northern regions so only so much cold can make it here but you can end up with an early frost if things pan out correctly

No doubt Tim! I have no idea how cold the airmass will be or if it will arrive this far out in time. IMO if we do not see the recurving typhoon then our current pattern will probably persist a little while longer. Once we see the tropics shut down (Atlantic side) we should be able to get back to the +PNA pattern we have been in for most of the year since Spring.

[tron777]

My high was 83 today. CVG also hit 83. I have mid 80s tomorrow but clouds may hinder that to the low 80s, we'll see. Mid 80s easy for Friday with plentiful sunshine that we slowly back off towards 80 for the weekend. 70s of course as we have discussed for next week with rain chances starting on Tuesday.

[MVWxObserver]

Sometimes I wonder if the Redlegs are still serious about a Wild Card chase. Stupid relief!

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

Pitching is the problem and will continue to be a problem. A hitters ballpark will no doubt keep the best pitchers from signing with the Reds. I understand that because the difference between an ERA of say 3.05 compared to 4.05 is worth millions of dollars

That's why I miss Riverfront Stadium and owners like Marge Schott e.g., granted she had her eccentricities, but she was like a Steinbrenner in that she truly had the drive to get the team into a World Series and along with GM Lou Piniella took them to it in 1990, their first since the years of 1975-1976 with owner Louis Nippert and GM Sparky Anderson.

My folks bought their first Buick car from the Schott dealership in the late 1960s or early '70s.

Still currently 79 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

CVG reached 83, DAY 82 and CMH 81 today.

[tron777]

Sometimes I wonder if the Redlegs are still serious about a Wild Card chase. Stupid relief!

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

Pitching is the problem and will continue to be a problem. A hitters ballpark will no doubt keep the best pitchers from signing with the Reds. I understand that because the difference between an ERA of say 3.05 compared to 4.05 is worth millions of dollars

That's why I miss Riverfront Stadium and owners like Marge Schott e.g., granted she had her eccentricities, but she was like a Steinbrenner in that she truly had the drive to get the team into a World Series and along with GM Lou Piniella took them to it in 1990, their first since the years of 1975-1976 with owner Louis Nippert and GM Sparky Anderson.

My folks bought their first Buick car from the Schott dealership in the late 1960s or early '70s.

Still currently 79 here in G'ville.

Loved Sparky when he managed My Tigers and took them to the WS in 1984 which they won!

[Bgoney]

Sometimes I wonder if the Redlegs are still serious about a Wild Card chase. Stupid relief!

Currently 79 here in G'ville.

Pitching is the problem and will continue to be a problem. A hitters ballpark will no doubt keep the best pitchers from signing with the Reds. I understand that because the difference between an ERA of say 3.05 compared to 4.05 is worth millions of dollars

That's why I miss Riverfront Stadium and owners like Marge Schott e.g., granted she had her eccentricities, but she was like a Steinbrenner in that she truly had the drive to get the team into a World Series and along with GM Lou Piniella took them to it in 1990, their first since the years of 1975-1976 with owner Louis Nippert and GM Sparky Anderson.

My folks bought their first Buick car from the Schott dealership in the late 1960s or early '70s.

Still currently 79 here in G'ville.

Loved Sparky when he managed My Tigers and took them to the WS in 1984 which they won!

Loved those Tiger teams, we used to pretend to be those Tigers teams when we played our whiffle ball games. And I’m not going to mention how old we were.

[tron777]

Loved those Tiger teams, we used to pretend to be those Tigers teams when we played our whiffle ball games. And I’m not going to mention how old we were.

My parents are from Detroit and my Mom went to one of the WS games in 1968! What a thrill that must have been!

[tron777]

Good morning all! Same ole, same ole with the forecast. Nothing new really to report this morning. Fall begins Sat night and it is still summer. We should see more fall like temps next week thanks to clouds and hopefully some much needed rain showers too.