September 2023 Weather Discussion

[winterstormjoe]

Does anyone know how to open these videos up? It want me to open up/create an X account which I don't want to. Thanks Joe

[tron777]

Does anyone know how to open these videos up? It want me to open up/create an X account which I don't want to. Thanks Joe

Are you on Facebook? BG also posts the video on his Facebook page. I believe that you can watch them on YouTube as well. Yep, try the below video Joe. YouTube videos play on thru our forum.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is much slower now like the Euro and does not bring in rain chances until later on Monday into Tues of next week. If this is the case, I would need to raise temps this weekend. I will keep my existing forecast from this morning that I posted but look for potential changes as we get closer to this weekend.

[tpweather]

12Z GFS is much slower now like the Euro and does not bring in rain chances until later on Monday into Tues of next week. If this is the case, I would need to raise temps this weekend. I will keep my existing forecast from this morning that I posted but look for potential changes as we get closer to this weekend.

Great Post Les and couple things I will bring up and a few of these Les has covered over the past few days. The upper system off the southeast coast is similar to me getting up and moving in the morning. Slow at best. Like Les has touted this is a slow mover but even slower than me. I thought this would be somewhat faster and this would open the western GOM and provided moisture to head this way. I also saw the gfs overnight almost kill the system for next week and don't believe that is the case and probably just a bad run. Still keeping the temps in the 80-82 range but if that system to the southeast just lumbers along then no doubt will need to keep an eye on the afternoon temps. Going to be big swings in temps over the next few days as we have plenty of dry air but how cool to we get at night can also keep from temps getting out of hand. The Thursday night period is when I need to see if temps level off some but that could also be dependent on the western GOM and how much moisture feed we have. Always a balancing act and again these are minor but also gives us a little brain work for the late fall and winter season.

[tron777]

12Z GFS is much slower now like the Euro and does not bring in rain chances until later on Monday into Tues of next week. If this is the case, I would need to raise temps this weekend. I will keep my existing forecast from this morning that I posted but look for potential changes as we get closer to this weekend.

Great Post Les and couple things I will bring up and a few of these Les has covered over the past few days. The upper system off the southeast coast is similar to me getting up and moving in the morning. Slow at best. Like Les has touted this is a slow mover but even slower than me. I thought this would be somewhat faster and this would open the western GOM and provided moisture to head this way. I also saw the gfs overnight almost kill the system for next week and don't believe that is the case and probably just a bad run. Still keeping the temps in the 80-82 range but if that system to the southeast just lumbers along then no doubt will need to keep an eye on the afternoon temps. Going to be big swings in temps over the next few days as we have plenty of dry air but how cool to we get at night can also keep from temps getting out of hand. The Thursday night period is when I need to see if temps level off some but that could also be dependent on the western GOM and how much moisture feed we have. Always a balancing act and again these are minor but also gives us a little brain work for the late fall and winter season.

I like your response here Tim! The interaction between the two systems are going to cause the models problems most definitely. I do think slower maybe the way to go which makes sense. The system off the Coast, depending on how strong it gets, will dictate how fast or slow it gets out of the way and then that will impact how long it takes our rain chances to arrive from the West. I will stay with my Sun night into Mon call but in a few more days, don't be surprised if it gets moved to Mon or Tues of next week. This will also impact sky cover and temps as well.

[tpweather]

Mowed the grass and yes still mud on the top layers in some of the shady spots. The area on a hill facing south the grass is there but rather brown and remainder of the grass is about what you would expect which means it needed mowing but not out of hand. Waiting to Thursday to edge and hopefully by then the ground will not have any mud on the top layer. Dew points in the mid 40's and though not unusual to have lower dew points this time of year it seems in recent years it was not until sometime in Oct before we saw such a lovely stretch with dews this low

[tron777]

I have only been mowing about once every 2 weeks ago for the last month and a half due to the dryness. Been saving money on gas this mowing season so that is a plus anyway. A gorgeous afternoon in progress though as Tim mentioned. 74 / 46 at CVG per the 2pm reading.

[tpweather]

I have only been mowing about once every 2 weeks ago for the last month and a half due to the dryness. Been saving money on gas this mowing season so that is a plus anyway. A gorgeous afternoon in progress though as Tim mentioned. 74 / 46 at CVG per the 2pm reading.

Les it is wonderful with no ac on in the house though the allergies can be sort of nasty especially when you wake up lol.

[winterstormjoe]

Does anyone know how to open these videos up? It want me to open up/create an X account which I don't want to. Thanks Joe

Are you on Facebook? BG also posts the video on his Facebook page. I believe that you can watch them on YouTube as well. Yep, try the below video Joe. YouTube videos play on thru our forum.

Thanks Les, I'll get on his FB page!

[tron777]

12Z Euro is a little stronger with the low along the SE Coast this weekend so it will move more slowly as a result. In turn, this will delay our rainfall until early next week. Euro has a Mon night into Tues timing but this system is also slow to leave so we should have several days of rain chances at some point next week.

[winterstormjoe]

I hope that first cold shot that BG mentioned happens after October 8th as I would like to have a nice mild camping weekend. At least I'd like to have it dry as we can always get a good camp fire going!

[tron777]

Man... I'd like for the Euro to be right. Chances for rain from around Mon night thru Fri of next week. That would be a welcomed change.

[tpweather]

Man... I'd like for the Euro to be right. Chances for rain from around Mon night thru Fri of next week. That would be a welcomed change.

That would be good news and the gfs is also showing chances of rain next week. The gfs overnight had went goofy showing no rain but back on track and this makes more sense imo. I will say one thing I have noticed on the models and really started last winter that the nighttime run and afternoon run are quite often different and more noticeable in the winter and would stick to their guns for several days. Have no ideal why this is happening and usually they could be somewhat different but after a day or so come back to each other. This was not the case last year and hopefully those problems are put aside.

[tron777]

Man... I'd like for the Euro to be right. Chances for rain from around Mon night thru Fri of next week. That would be a welcomed change.

That would be good news and the gfs is also showing chances of rain next week. The gfs overnight had went goofy showing no rain but back on track and this makes more sense imo. I will say one thing I have noticed on the models and really started last winter that the nighttime run and afternoon run are quite often different and more noticeable in the winter and would stick to their guns for several days. Have no ideal why this is happening and usually they could be somewhat different but after a day or so come back to each other. This was not the case last year and hopefully those problems are put aside.

I know one thing... during transition seasons (spring and fall) you do tend to get some pretty wild swings on the modeling so I don't know if that is part of it or maybe some bad data got fed into the overnight GFS? I'm not an expert on this but I do agree with you're saying. It's been tough from a modeling standpoint. Models have done pretty poorly on temps this summer, the GFS probably being the worst. Precip wise, a lot of the time, when we were getting rain that is, models tended to overdo precip amounts. It is hard to say what biases we will see come winter but I am sure we will be noticing something. We usually do.

[tron777]

Good morning all! 54 here this morning so much warmer as winds are now southerly since the high has moved off to the East. 5 days in a row upcoming for the return of the 80s with today being #1. We still look to drop into the 70s next week with rain chances now potentially being delayed until Tues and Wed.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and hit 53 this morning. The stretch of nice weather continues and just 3 days from the official start of fall. Usually about 3-5 days after the start you can tell by looking into the sky how the sun is at a different angle as we head towards winter. My favorite weather period is Oct 1-Feb 28th or 29th. I love the holidays so its a wonderful time of year. Yesterday almost a 30 degree rise in temps and that should be close to that today as we still have a very dry atmosphere. I have 80-82 though Friday and weekend temps are still something that can go either way. Still counting on those high clouds to cause the temp from reaching its max but would it be a surprise to get near 85 and the answer is no. No matter what happens with the temp it will feel wonderful.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim! I am so used to the 70s, that the 80s are going to feel hot to me. Either way, fall is still in the air so to speak and the signs are still there regardless of the temps. Leaves continue to drop IMBY thanks to the dryness and hopefully, we will see some rain soon to help with the fall colors. The dry airmasses we have been seeing with cool nights and warm afternoons are good for fall color promotion but the lack of rainfall isn't.

[tpweather]

Just looking at the year as a whole and pretty much near normal. Temp wise about a degree and a half above normal which is still in the range of normal and rainfall about 2 inches below normal but still in the normal range. My guess temp wise since April has been below normal as we had a very mild Jan and Feb and parts of March.

I raked up 3 bags on Saturday and then mowed the grass yesterday so everything looking good. Need to do some edging but still a tad muddy from the weekend rainfall. Next week if we can get 1/2 inch it will help even more. September has been nice except for the lack of rain but really not unusual. Rainfall next week would also help the leaves as you mentioned Les and if that happens we could have a wonderful fall display.

[Bgoney]

Good news bad news for next week. Good news the center of the country starts to see appreciable moisture return(1.00”+), bad news I don’t see that making it into our region (below .50”) . A cutoff low taking it’s sweet time while weakening as it tries to enter the OV , all the while the STJ also looks to weaken , and we have influence from the NE high pressure squeezing in between the low moving off the coast. It just doesn’t equate to much QPF for cvgland

[tron777]

Good news bad news for next week. Good news the center of the country starts to see appreciable moisture return(1.00”+), bad news I don’t see that making it into our region (below .50”) . A cutoff low taking it’s sweet time while weakening as it tries to enter the OV , all the while the STJ also looks to weaken , and we have influence from the NE high pressure squeezing in between the low moving off the coast. It just doesn’t equate to much QPF for cvgland

Agreed. I still don't see any widespread rainfall for our area for the rest of Sept. at least. October may also begin with a similar pattern. Hopefully in the next 2-3 weeks things will change but like you, I don't see that happening as of yet. Total rainfall for the next 2 weeks looks to stay at or under that half inch mark for our area as a whole. The yellow D0 drought category will be expanding in coverage for sure once the new map comes out tomorrow.

[tpweather]

I agree tons of sinking air as we have systems both the east and west of us. If we can just get 1/2 inch it helps so much. The 1/3 of and inch this past weekend made the neighborhood look sort of lush again minus the south facing lawns on a hill but that area can have problems in a wet summer. Good news as well no extreme heat and that should be done for the year. We have had some really warm Septembers in the past 10 years but this will not be one. Sure we may end up a degree maybe 2 above normal but that is still in the normal range. Rainfall will be below normal but again September is a dry month and for the farmers much easier to harvest as well. I don't worry about minor droughts in the late summer and fall and growing up this was the normal and nobody worried about it and of course less than 1 p/c of the folks had any kind of lawn care so the weeds filled in the dead grass.

[Bgoney]

Good news bad news for next week. Good news the center of the country starts to see appreciable moisture return(1.00”+), bad news I don’t see that making it into our region (below .50”) . A cutoff low taking it’s sweet time while weakening as it tries to enter the OV , all the while the STJ also looks to weaken , and we have influence from the NE high pressure squeezing in between the low moving off the coast. It just doesn’t equate to much QPF for cvgland

Agreed. I still don't see any widespread rainfall for our area for the rest of Sept. at least. October may also begin with a similar pattern. Hopefully in the next 2-3 weeks things will change but like you, I don't see that happening as of yet. Total rainfall for the next 2 weeks looks to stay at or under that half inch mark for our area as a whole. The yellow D0 drought category will be expanding in coverage for sure once the new map comes out tomorrow.

As hard as it is to believe, we’re actually in a worse spot than what ended up as a moderate to severe fall drought than last year. We had decent rains regionally in August and beginning of September last year, it’s been much different regionally this year. Last fall’s drought was devastating to many evergreens in combination with lack of root zone moisture and the severe temperature drop in December, nearly wiped out or severely damaged many. Cherry laurel were goners, American boxwood species severely damaged or goners. Norway spruce suffered severe needle drop and will take years to recover if they do. I harped on this last year, so you no I wasn’t kidding , please start watering any valued evergreens so they have deep moisture going into winter

[tpweather]

Good news bad news for next week. Good news the center of the country starts to see appreciable moisture return(1.00”+), bad news I don’t see that making it into our region (below .50”) . A cutoff low taking it’s sweet time while weakening as it tries to enter the OV , all the while the STJ also looks to weaken , and we have influence from the NE high pressure squeezing in between the low moving off the coast. It just doesn’t equate to much QPF for cvgland

Agreed. I still don't see any widespread rainfall for our area for the rest of Sept. at least. October may also begin with a similar pattern. Hopefully in the next 2-3 weeks things will change but like you, I don't see that happening as of yet. Total rainfall for the next 2 weeks looks to stay at or under that half inch mark for our area as a whole. The yellow D0 drought category will be expanding in coverage for sure once the new map comes out tomorrow.

As hard as it is to believe, we’re actually in a worse spot than what ended up as a moderate to severe fall drought than last year. We had decent rains regionally in August and beginning of September last year, it’s been much different regionally this year. Last fall’s drought was devastating to many evergreens in combination with lack of root zone moisture and the severe temperature drop in December, nearly wiped out or severely damaged many. Cherry laurel were goners, American boxwood species severely damaged or goners. Norway spruce suffered severe needle drop and will take years to recover if they do. I harped on this last year, so you no I wasn’t kidding , please start watering any valued evergreens so they have deep moisture going into winter

Great Post except last year I got missed with every rain event from mid-August on while the region had some decent rains my house got missed. I agree about the evergreens but the ones in my neighborhood are looking wonderful. This August and September I have done better with the rains so we know rainfall can be regional but also localized. One thing I have notice is the boxwood species have really had problems this year and that started in the spring. We have 2 that are completely gone to brown and this is very common in the neighborhood. My soil moisture is still in really good shape but getting some rain and then have low humidity and nice temps makes a big difference.

[Bgoney]

Good news bad news for next week. Good news the center of the country starts to see appreciable moisture return(1.00”+), bad news I don’t see that making it into our region (below .50”) . A cutoff low taking it’s sweet time while weakening as it tries to enter the OV , all the while the STJ also looks to weaken , and we have influence from the NE high pressure squeezing in between the low moving off the coast. It just doesn’t equate to much QPF for cvgland

Agreed. I still don't see any widespread rainfall for our area for the rest of Sept. at least. October may also begin with a similar pattern. Hopefully in the next 2-3 weeks things will change but like you, I don't see that happening as of yet. Total rainfall for the next 2 weeks looks to stay at or under that half inch mark for our area as a whole. The yellow D0 drought category will be expanding in coverage for sure once the new map comes out tomorrow.

As hard as it is to believe, we’re actually in a worse spot than what ended up as a moderate to severe fall drought than last year. We had decent rains regionally in August and beginning of September last year, it’s been much different regionally this year. Last fall’s drought was devastating to many evergreens in combination with lack of root zone moisture and the severe temperature drop in December, nearly wiped out or severely damaged many. Cherry laurel were goners, American boxwood species severely damaged or goners. Norway spruce suffered severe needle drop and will take years to recover if they do. I harped on this last year, so you no I wasn’t kidding , please start watering any valued evergreens so they have deep moisture going into winter

Great Post except last year I got missed with every rain event from mid-August on while the region had some decent rains my house got missed. I agree about the evergreens but the ones in my neighborhood are looking wonderful. This August and September I have done better with the rains so we know rainfall can be regional but also localized. One thing I have notice is the boxwood species have really had problems this year and that started in the spring. We have 2 that are completely gone to brown and this is very common in the neighborhood. My soil moisture is still in really good shape but getting some rain and then have low humidity and nice temps makes a big difference.

If you have moisture at depth , you’re one of the few lucky ones. Most evergreens looked “ good” at this time last year also, unfortunately most drought effects don’t show up until much later , after the damage has been done. . Moisture in the root zone ,down to 18” is crucial going into winter

[tron777]

Great posts guys! Always appreciate the tips Bgoney! I have two evergreens in the front yard (Had a third one but lost it to the severe drought we had in 2007 when we had 100 degree temps). In the backyard (which faces south and gets baked) I have 1 Colorado blue spruce and the needles definitely are much thinner this year as a result of the dryness so I definitely get your point!