September 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

A few scattered storms out there. Good luck and hope you can catch one.

[tron777]

75 here today for my high.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[tron777]

CVG also hit 75 today. Still a few showers out there but as the sun is going down, so is the shower coverage. Another dry and nice week of weather ahead, turning above avg in temps by Wednesday as the 80s return for a while.

[tron777]

Good morning all! We are dry thru next weekend the way it looks right now with Sun night being our next rain chance. 70s today and tomorrow with low to mid 80s expected Wed thru the weekend. A short post since there is little to talk about this week for us other then the expanding D0 Abnormally Dry category which we will see on this week's drought update.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a boring week like Les mentioned. Getting outdoor work done this week is wonderful. One last Atlantic tropical system before that calms down. That is one item that helps us get busy by the weekend and into next week. Temps this week will have a nice range with many days seeing over a 25 degree rise. That tells me the dew points will be very nice until the weekend. Wed-Fri I can see 80-82 each day and one reason I kept it from going higher is this time of year I expect some high clouds the closer we get to the weekend and this can hold temps down by a few degrees. Still above normal during the day and rising to near normal at night during this period. I believe models are still holding down precip return this weekend and still throwing in chances of rain to increase as the week moves forward. Next week should be a busier week as the GOM is open and systems are able to move further east.

BTW got 0.13 last evening so 1/3 of an inch yesterday really has helped my lawn.Probably will mow sometime this week just to clean it up. 90's are done for the year so a below normal season in terms of 90 degree weather. Yes 90 is always possible in late Sept and early Oct but I don't see a pattern that will allow that to happen this season.

[tron777]

I am also ready to call it a day with the 90s until 2024 but I am a bit higher then Tim for temps this week as I believe the mid 80s are possible for a couple of days. The best days to me look like Fri and Sat before clouds increase on Sunday ahead of our next system.

[tron777]

Rainfall totals from my hood's region: (Totals from both rounds of rain)

CVG - 0.18"
Me - 0.17"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.17"

[tpweather]

Rainfall totals from my hood's region: (Totals from both rounds of rain)

CVG - 0.18"
Me - 0.17"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.17"

Les I got lucky with 1/3 of an inch and Lunken got 1/4 inch. Not much but very helpful with the lower temps and humidity.

[tron777]

Rainfall totals from my hood's region: (Totals from both rounds of rain)

CVG - 0.18"
Me - 0.17"
Boone Co Mesonet - 0.17"

Les I got lucky with 1/3 of an inch and Lunken got 1/4 inch. Not much but very helpful with the lower temps and humidity.

It's better then a zero for sure. Hopefully the rains come back in October. That has been my expectation.

[tron777]

[MJSun]

Got some nice gushers yesterday in Batavia Township- gorgeous clouds too!

https://photos.app.goo.gl/EDRJkdBVoSGJ4juU6

[tron777]

Got some nice gushers yesterday in Batavia Township- gorgeous clouds too!

https://photos.app.goo.gl/EDRJkdBVoSGJ4juU6

I love that video! So that's what heavy rain sounds like!

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and another beautiful day. Les and I sort of disagree on the forecast later this week but not by much. When we are at odds lol most of the time we meet in the middle and that pans out. Saw Brian's video and again he showed exactly why we could see rain this weekend or it waits until early next week. He also talked about the tropical system to the east which is the road block and will make a big difference in timing of rain but also temps. I understand the sinking air you get to the west of these systems and many times this will boost the temps quite a bit. The reasons I was going in the 80-82 temp range is I believe the tropical system may not be that strong and I still believe high clouds from the system in the central plains may help in keeping the temp down a degree or two. Hopefully by Wednesday we have a better handle and either way really not a big difference in the forecast. Rain chances are better next week as we have mentioned and Brian did a nice job showing why it could be just what the doctored ordered.

[tron777]

GFS brings in small rain chances late Sunday. Euro waits until late overnight Sun / Mon morning. Timing differences of course this far out and that low near the SE Coast is going to hold up the rain chances for us so this all plays into the forecast. Tim... as far as temps go, your max is 82, mine is 85. Not a big deal really. It's not like we're talking snow which is a huge deal when we differ.

[MVWxObserver]

Picked up around .07" yesterday here in G'ville.

[tron777]

75 for my high as well as CVG today. Upper 70s tomorrow then here comes summer again with those 80s!

[tron777]

47 for my low this morning! I am adjusting my temp forecast a bit. It will be as follows:

Today - Upper 70s.
Wed - Lower 80s
Thurs - 85
Fri - 85
Sat - Lower 80s
Sun - Upper 70s (thanks to increasing clouds)

Next rain chance: Sun night into Mon of next week.

EDIT: CVG dropped to 48 this morning! It's tough to get the airport to radiate and drop thanks to UHI. It is getting harder for my area also for the same reason.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and 47 here as well. Another beautiful day in store. Your forecast looks great and we only differ on the highs for Thursday and Friday as I am staying with the 80-82 range. Rainfall and when it may arrive is key to the long term. One major factor is the upper system expected to ride along the east coast. Second is the Hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic. Les mentioned wind shear will keep it from getting to a CAT 3 and this is important as well because it will tend to move a tad faster than forecast before and this moves everything to the west able to move a tad further east. I still believe we can get some showers in here during the day Sunday. Some models hold it off until maybe Tuesday.

No matter what happens Les we just differ on time wise for rainfall and temp wise we are no more than 3 degrees off for afternoon highs.

[tron777]

Good morning Tim and you're exactly right! just minor differences with our thinking and not a huge deal. We will continue to see timing issues with the upcoming rainfall chance so folks may need to stay tuned to our forum for changes in regards to that, once we get closer. It's sort of like a squeeze play between that system near the East Coast (whether it's tropical, subtropical, or a regular low, doesn't really matter) and our incoming low / cold front from the west. Our system approaching from the West will dominate eventually and win out, but how long does that low to our East delay its arrival is the ultimate question. Then, once we get into next week, our second challenge is clouds / rainfall chances and temps. How long does this feature stick around? We will worry about that later. The system has to arrive first.

[tpweather]

The main reason I went lower for temps on Thurs and Fri is really high clouds. We have those systems out to the west and we have one to the northwest today and these tend to at least throw high clouds in our direction. In the late spring and summer high clouds have very little effects on temps but once you start seeing the sun angle getting lower these high clouds can keep temps down by a degree or two. Today may be a good example just to the north of us in Indy and maybe Dayton as some high clouds associated with the small disturbance to the northwest may throw enough clouds in to keep temps down by a degree or two. NWS in Indy shows 77 for a high and will keep an eye on this in the afternoon as no doubt temps will rise into the 72-74 range by noon but will any high clouds cause the temp from rising much after noon. Either way the dew points are not getting out of hand and maybe by the weekend we see them getting in the low 60's.

Love to see 2-3 days of light rain next week and getting .5-1 inch this time of year can perk vegetation up quickly. I know the 1/3 of an inch over the weekend at my house has no doubt let the lawn grow and starting to green up nicely.

[tron777]

The main reason I went lower for temps on Thurs and Fri is really high clouds. We have those systems out to the west and we have one to the northwest today and these tend to at least throw high clouds in our direction. In the late spring and summer high clouds have very little effects on temps but once you start seeing the sun angle getting lower these high clouds can keep temps down by a degree or two. Today may be a good example just to the north of us in Indy and maybe Dayton as some high clouds associated with the small disturbance to the northwest may throw enough clouds in to keep temps down by a degree or two. NWS in Indy shows 77 for a high and will keep an eye on this in the afternoon as no doubt temps will rise into the 72-74 range by noon but will any high clouds cause the temp from rising much after noon. Either way the dew points are not getting out of hand and maybe by the weekend we see them getting in the low 60's.

Love to see 2-3 days of light rain next week and getting .5-1 inch this time of year can perk vegetation up quickly. I know the 1/3 of an inch over the weekend at my house has no doubt let the lawn grow and starting to green up nicely.

That is possible Tim. The CMC brings that low from the east so far west that a few showers are even possible this weekend esp in our Eastern counties. This is the only model that shows this solution but it would support lower temps then what I have due to clouds.

[tpweather]

The main reason I went lower for temps on Thurs and Fri is really high clouds. We have those systems out to the west and we have one to the northwest today and these tend to at least throw high clouds in our direction. In the late spring and summer high clouds have very little effects on temps but once you start seeing the sun angle getting lower these high clouds can keep temps down by a degree or two. Today may be a good example just to the north of us in Indy and maybe Dayton as some high clouds associated with the small disturbance to the northwest may throw enough clouds in to keep temps down by a degree or two. NWS in Indy shows 77 for a high and will keep an eye on this in the afternoon as no doubt temps will rise into the 72-74 range by noon but will any high clouds cause the temp from rising much after noon. Either way the dew points are not getting out of hand and maybe by the weekend we see them getting in the low 60's.

Love to see 2-3 days of light rain next week and getting .5-1 inch this time of year can perk vegetation up quickly. I know the 1/3 of an inch over the weekend at my house has no doubt let the lawn grow and starting to green up nicely.

That is possible Tim. The CMC brings that low from the east so far west that a few showers are even possible this weekend esp in our Eastern counties. This is the only model that shows this solution but it would support lower temps then what I have due to clouds.

Les the one thing that could bite me is the dry ground over many areas. No doubt you can heat up the ground quickly when its rather dry. I know Indy has been drier than us over the past 6 weeks or so. I saw where the CMC brought a few showers to the east of us and really overall this past summer that model was the winner imo. If that system is a little stronger and a little further west I could see a few showers out in Adams county but again always hard to throw moisture to far west especially when the air is still rather dry. Good to start using some skills we have got over the years and of course they become more important in the winter months as a minor difference can mean much more.

[tron777]

The dry ground (plus the fact that the system to our west is getting delayed thanks to the low to the East) are the reasons why I have two days in the mid 80s coming up this week.

[tron777]