September 2023 Weather Discussion

[tron777]

78 was my high today. It made mowing the lawn a pleasure due to the dry airmass in place.

[tron777]

Good morning all! 55 here this morning with some 40s of course in the rural areas. U70s today 80ish tomorrow then mid 70s on Sun with our rain chance. 70s to begin next week with the low and even mid 80s showing up towards the end of next week. Dry conditions are expected most of next week until we get towards sometime next weekend or so. We are awaiting the timing of the potential cut off low or at least a slower moving cold front.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and made it back from the golf outing. Looks like I was very lucky on Tuesday evening as my wife reported 0.74 inches of rain later in the day. I can even tell the difference in the lawn as it rebounded with the rain and cooler temps. Will spend more time on the weather later today but hope everyone has a great weekend

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and made it back from the golf outing. Looks like I was very lucky on Tuesday evening as my wife reported 0.74 inches of rain later in the day. I can even tell the difference in the lawn as it rebounded with the rain and cooler temps. Will spend more time on the weather later today but hope everyone has a great weekend

Thanks Tim! Hope your Golf game was good. If not, the beer was cold I am sure. I am going fishing tomorrow, should be a great day for it ahead of our next system for Sunday.

[tron777]

12Z NAM wants to give CVG 0.12" on Sunday. 12Z HRRR favors our SE counties and keeps most folks NW of I-71 dry.

[MVWxObserver]

78 was my high today. It made mowing the lawn a pleasure due to the dry airmass in place.

Got to 78, too, at CVG after readjustment.

[tron777]

78 was my high today. It made mowing the lawn a pleasure due to the dry airmass in place.

Got to 78, too, at CVG after readjustment.

71 as of 12pm at CVG. We were also at 71 the same time yesterday so similar temps should be expected this afternoon. Airmass is similar as well as in dry and comfortable. A nice easterly breeze from time to time as well.

[tron777]

After Sunday's rain chance, the 12Z GFS keeps us dry until the following Sun night into Monday period (Sept 24-25th) when the cut off low moves in. 12Z CMC is much slower with this entire system due to a tropical entity developing off the SE Coast slowing the pattern down over the lower 48. The GFS is trying to do something with it too, but never does so the cut off low can move right on in.

[MVWxObserver]

Got to 76 at CVG / CMH and 75 DAY today.

[tron777]

77 was my high today... simply perfect!

[tron777]

48 here this morning! My first sub 50 degree reading since spring.

[tpweather]

48 here this morning! My first sub 50 degree reading since spring.

Good Morning Les and hit 48 here as well. Should see a few more early in the week before we warm up above average but the humidity will still be in check. Leaving the grass alone though it could use a haircut but wait and see if any rain falls on Sunday lol. Next week looks dry but again dry season is mid-August - mid-Oct for us locally and really many farmers love it getting the harvest in.

[tpweather]

Looking at the upcoming week and a warming trend but how warm is still a debate. Euro has been somewhat high on temps the last week and gfs through the summer was terrible but getting closer. Dry and sunny temps can climb quickly but again we are losing daylight each day so temps do fall quickly at night. My guess is the Wed-Fri time period we see highs in the 80-82 range and lows in the 56-58 range. That is a tad lower than models but I believe the models will readjust over the next few days as one previous tropical system moves away and another in the mid-Atlantic starts to pull northeast away from the USA. We are starting to see signs of systems becoming more likely in the northern plains and this usually happens this time of year. At first we get a glancing blow at best but by Oct we start to see the chances of a decent cold front move through here. The process is slow but again signs already in the works and models will come around on this as well. After a certain time period models tend to head towards the median on forecasts so then you need to see what is happening in real time and then adjust the forecast. One item is patterns seem to stay locked in longer in recent years and sure there is data to support this and why is a different animal.

[tpweather]

SNOW yes starting to be inserted in the forecast in parts of Alaska,. Seems about the normal time for this to happen and of course the snowiest month is usually either in Oct or Nov in much of Alaska as the jet is strong and still far enough north.

[MVWxObserver]

A triple crown from Fri as CVG, DAY and CMH all reached 76.

[tpweather]

Good Afternoon and what a beautiful day once again. Chance of rain on Sunday then the pattern is rather dry and mild-warm the remainder of the week. Mother Nature as always is balancing things out once again and folks in northern Canada and the eastern half of Alaska have been very mild and she will start to balance that out over the next few weeks. This keeps in the status quo and wish we could get some rains but an overall decent rainfall is unlikely though some folks may get lucky on Sunday. This is very common for mid-late September and the Atlantic tropical season looks to coming to an end for the most part. We can still get some tropical activity well to the south in the lower gom but at this point no such system and the further we get into the calendar the less chances of that happening.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and a nice little surprise this morning as I got 0.20 inches of rainfall. I thought maybe a brief shower would be the case but getting that much is wonderful. Did not mow yesterday but did rake up 3 bags of leaves. Back later to see if any changes are happening in this rather boring but nice pattern.

[tron777]

Good morning all! Had a nice day on the water crappie fishing at East Fork yesterday. Between my Dad, my Brother, myself and Cooper, we probably caught 50 crappie, a handful of cats, and a bonus saugeye. Nothing was keeper size though until the end of the day when my Brother finally got on some decent 11" crappie. 9" is the size limit on crappie at East Fork but we Rhoads' have always had our own 10" self imposed limit.

CVG got 0.10" I got 0.07" and the Boone Co mesonet picked up 0.05". One more shot at a ground wetter later on today and that's a wrap on rainfall for the next 7-10 days. Looking like a warming trend as well mid to late next week. Low 80s are a lock, but I wouldn't rule out the mid 80s either in a few spots.

As far as future rain chances go, the cut off low idea is still there but it's getting pushed back. The GFS doesn't introduce POPS now until maybe the 26th or 27th. Euro also showing basically the same thing. So for now... if you don't get rain today, you will be waiting 8-10 days for the next chance.

[tpweather]

Good Morning Les and sounds like a wonderful day on the lake. My father-n-law had a boat and my wife would go skiing on the lake. I tried but failed lol. Amounts were low last night as Luken got .15. Rained enough here that the top layer of dirt is mud but of course only goes so deep.Temp wise I am sticking to the 80-82 range as I believe the mid 80's will be towards southern Kentucky and the Tn Valley. I can see the GOM starting to open up later this week so next weekend I believe chances start to improve for some rainfall. How far north the rain extends is still to hard to predict but at this point I believe Saturday would be the first day where we get a chance of rainfall. Models will readjust again as tropical systems just make the timing a mess this time of year.

[MVWxObserver]

Prayerfully the Bengals will bounce back big time in their home season opener vs the Ravens!

Only a 30-40% POPs for today so no major issues wx wise for fans and teams.

Week 1 vs the Browns, hard to believe all they could muster was just a field goal!

Currently 64 and progged for around 70 here in G'ville.

76-77 progged for game time at Paycor.

[tpweather]

Prayerfully the Bengals will bounce back big time in their home season opener vs the Ravens!

Only a 30-40% POPs for today so no major issues wx wise for fans and teams.

Week 1 vs the Browns, hard to believe all they could muster was just a field goal!

Currently 64 and progged for around 70 here in G'ville.

76-77 progged for game time at Paycor.

Hey Eric and I thought Bruce Coslett was coaching last week. We need to play the offensive line during preseason as we switched one guy from left tackle to right tackle and had a new left tackle. The coach did the same last year and started slowly. The defense is a reactive situation so yes nice to have players get a little practice in a game but the offensive line along with the QB needs more snaps. Looks like the Ravens are missing some players but watch out for their QB as he can still run so need a linebacker whose job is to watch him at all times.

[tron777]

Good Morning Les and sounds like a wonderful day on the lake. My father-n-law had a boat and my wife would go skiing on the lake. I tried but failed lol. Amounts were low last night as Luken got .15. Rained enough here that the top layer of dirt is mud but of course only goes so deep.Temp wise I am sticking to the 80-82 range as I believe the mid 80's will be towards southern Kentucky and the Tn Valley. I can see the GOM starting to open up later this week so next weekend I believe chances start to improve for some rainfall. How far north the rain extends is still to hard to predict but at this point I believe Saturday would be the first day where we get a chance of rainfall. Models will readjust again as tropical systems just make the timing a mess this time of year.

No doubt Tim with regards to the tropics and making things tough on timing. We have a low off the SE Coast that moves inland trying to bring rain from the East towards us at the same time a possible cut off low, or cold front, pushes in from the west. Which system wins out or are we stuck in no man's land between the two and get nothing? A tough forecast from around the 25th on. Easy as pie prior to then.

[MVWxObserver]

C'mon Bengals!

Currently 73 here in G'ville.

[MVWxObserver]

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[MVWxObserver]

27-24 blackbirds! Looks like it could be a long season!

At least my Colts (1-1) beat the Texans 31-20!