Major Hurricane Idalia

[tron777]

We will use this thread to discuss TD 10 and the likely impacts to the FL Panhandle / SE US later next week.

Current NHC Advisory:

Tropical Depression Ten Intermediate Advisory Number 3A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
700 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023

...DEPRESSION NEARING TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY...
...EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN INTO A HURRICANE OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF
MEXICO IN A COUPLE OF DAYS...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.7N 86.3W
ABOUT 70 MI...110 KM SE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SE OR 135 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB...29.56 INCHES

NHC Track.png

Intensity Forecast from NHC:

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 27/0900Z 20.1N 86.8W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 27/1800Z 20.1N 86.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 28/0600Z 20.6N 86.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 21.7N 86.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 23.3N 86.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 29/1800Z 25.7N 85.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 30/0600Z 28.5N 84.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 31/0600Z 33.0N 81.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
120H 01/0600Z 35.0N 75.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...OVER WATER

I still believe they are too low. I think this will be at least a Cat 3 or major hurricane at landfall.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Idalia Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1015 AM CDT Sun Aug 27 2023


...DEPRESSION STRENGTHENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

Observations from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
Tropical Depression Ten has strengthened into Tropical Storm Idalia.
The maximum winds are estimated to be 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts.

SUMMARY OF 1015 AM CDT...1515 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.9N 85.8W
ABOUT 80 MI...135 KM ESE OF COZUMEL MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 90 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.41 INCHES

[tpweather]

I see where they have issued a state of emergency in Florida for about half of the counties which my guess is the northern and western counties.

[tron777]

I see where they have issued a state of emergency in Florida for about half of the counties which my guess is the northern and western counties.

Per this article, 33 counties in total.

https://www.wesh.com/article/florida-st ... l/44917319

[MVWxObserver]

My folks and I have some friends from our Hamilton days who reside in Tampa e.g.

Prayers with all in western / northern FL and elsewhere there in the cone zone.

[tron777]

We have some friends also in Lutz, FL which is a suburb just north of Tampa.

[tpweather]

Good Evening and what I see from the latest from the NHC is a tad further east. Hopefully by Monday morning its set in stone. Sure the folks on the west coast of Florida are just a little nervous to say the least. Still so many areas that have not recovered and the Insurance industry is always a pain to deal with

[Bgoney]

IMG_0576.png

[tron777]

Winds are at 65 mph this morning moving N at 7. NHC now has it getting to a Cat 3 - 115 mph at max intensity. That's more like it as far as what my thinking has been with this system. I liked a landfall near App. Bay yesterday, but Tampa Bay may also be in play now too.

[tpweather]

Winds are at 65 mph this morning moving N at 7. NHC now has it getting to a Cat 3 - 115 mph at max intensity. That's more like it as far as what my thinking has been with this system. I liked a landfall near App. Bay yesterday, but Tampa Bay may also be in play now too.

Great Post Les. You have always mentioned this would be stronger than models were showing and they are coming around. My thoughts of a slight chance this would head more west is not an issue. The trough over the eastern USA is stronger and sticking around longer than I expected and will end up grabbing both tropical systems and sending them out to sea but not before parts of Florida,Georgia and South Carolina get hit.

[tron777]

Winds are at 65 mph this morning moving N at 7. NHC now has it getting to a Cat 3 - 115 mph at max intensity. That's more like it as far as what my thinking has been with this system. I liked a landfall near App. Bay yesterday, but Tampa Bay may also be in play now too.

Great Post Les. You have always mentioned this would be stronger than models were showing and they are coming around. My thoughts of a slight chance this would head more west is not an issue. The trough over the eastern USA is stronger and sticking around longer than I expected and will end up grabbing both tropical systems and sending them out to sea but not before parts of Florida,Georgia and South Carolina get hit.

Thanks Tim and you're correct about the trough. With that high parked over the Great Lakes, this system simply cannot track more to the West. It will track north until the trough starts to influence it then you'll see a turn to the NNE and eventually NE along with an increase in forward speed. Had this system continued to stall / move more slowly, then you absolutely would have had a shot at that further westward track.

[tron777]

Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1000 AM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
WEST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.8N 85.2W
ABOUT 80 MI...125 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.24 INCHES

[tpweather]

Starting to get interesting with Idalia. Les mentioned the other day how "I" storms get retired rather often. Main reason of course is being near the peak of the season so early in the alphabet storms usually not as strong and further down the alphabet less storms of course.

What I find interesting is that we could have a western Atlantic Hurricane and eastern GOM Hurricane being both major Hurricanes at the same time. Sure its happened before but my guess not too often. That is a lot of energy in a rather short distance. You see this more in the Pacific but again bigger body of water and normally many more storms each season

[tron777]

As of 2pm, Idalia has winds of 70 mph now, moving N at 8 mph. It will likely be a hurricane here soon, which is earlier then originally predicted. I like my Cat 3 call more and more to be honest. Hope it doesn't go bonkers like Franklin and become a Cat 4. I wouldn't rule that out to be honest.

[tron777]

LIVE afternoon briefing from the great James Spann:

[tron777]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Idalia Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
400 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...IDALIA NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH AS IT APPROACHES WESTERN
CUBA...
...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE AND DANGEROUS WINDS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR PORTIONS OF FLORIDA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.4N 85.1W
ABOUT 35 MI...60 KM SSW OF THE WESTERN TIP OF CUBA
ABOUT 265 MI...430 KM SSW OF THE DRY TORTUGAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES

NHC has this thing at 120 mph (very strong Cat 3) in about 36 hours from now. We should see Rapid Intensification (RI) take place tomorrow.

[tpweather]

I know the 5pm report still showed 70mph winds. That will bump up of course and the only thing I saw with the latest info is a track a little further northwest so they have moved tropical storm watches a tad further west.

[tpweather]

Good Morning and yes finally a Hurricane this morning. This system really just got started a few days ago and while passing the western tip of Cuba it sort of stalled the ongoing strength and that's why its taken longer to hit hurricane status. The forward speed is up to 14mph so moving rather quickly. Cat 3 is what the models are showing. Not all Cat 3's are the same and this one happens to be gaining strength very fast and that can cause more issues with the surge and of course winds. Been very dry in much of western Florida so though we will see some flooding it won't be as widespread and that is good plus it helps the rainfall deficit. What happens after this system gets to the Atlantic is a big question and yes some models are showing it stalling well off the coast but trying to curve back towards the USA. Not sold on that yet and yes it has happened in the past so will take a wait and see approach.

[tron777]

The storm surge is going to be the bigger deal due to the concaved shape of the FL Coastline where it is expected to hit. 7-11 feet possible. That's not good. Hope the people living in that area get out if ordered to do so.

Tim, I think it is going to head out to sea and I am discounting the loop back towards the US.

[young pup]

My sister is still planning on going. Says PCB should be fine. I said we shall see we aren’t going anywhere if they have mandatory evacuations I told her. Keeping a close eye on this that is for sure.

[MVWxObserver]

Maybe its just me, but the looks of that current 1 AM Sun position makes one wonder if Idalia might meander around or do a slight recurve?

[tron777]

She's at 80 mph now as of the 8am advisory. She's picked up speed too moving N at 14 mph.

[MVWxObserver]

----

[MVWxObserver]

From Tues ...

1320 61 9 SW Key West GMZ044 FL 2446 8188 A SSW wind gust of 53 knots ... or 61 mph ... was measured by the CMAN station located at Sand Key at 920 AM EDT. (KEY)

1618 59 Boca Chica Monroe FL 2458 8168 A SSE wind gust of 51 knots ... or 59 mph ... was measured by the Key West Naval Air Station ASOS at 1218 pm EDT and lasted until around 1224 pm EDT. (KEY)

1619 63 1 ENE Big Coppitt Key Monroe FL 2460 8165 A SSE wind gust of 55 kts ... or 63 mph ... was measured at the Big Coppitt Key substation at 1219 pm EDT and persisted until around 1229 pm EDT. (KEY)

1631 UNK 1 WSW Key West Monroe FL 2455 8180 A report at 1231 to the 911 call center at Key West reported a tree blown over at Petronia and Simonton Street. The tree blew over onto a car. No injuries were observed. (KEY)

1730 59 6 SSW Marathon GMZ053 FL 2463 8111 A S wind gust of 51 kts ... or 59 mph ... was recorded by the Sombrero Key C-MAN station at 1:30 PM. (KEY)

0546 3 W Avon Park Highlands FL 2760 8155 Highlands county EMS reported seeing a tornado moving northbound near Avon Park. (TBW)

[MVWxObserver]

https://www.whio.com/news/trending/hurr ... O3RB555BQ/

A feature called King tide which I've never heard described that way. Interesting ...